Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Feb 13, 2019 15:30:00 GMT
We all know how the Russian Civil War of 1917 to 1922--a veritable nationwide bloodbath between the united, Marx-inspired "Reds" and the divided, anti-Bolshevik "Whites"--ultimately ended. The communists' final triumph led to the founding of the Soviet Union and its eventual rise to superpower status as it went toe-to-toe with the capitalist United States for the latter half of the 20th Century, before collapsing in 1991 and showing that "the great socialist experiment" of Comrade Lenin's dreams couldn't last forever.
But in a divergent twist of fate, let's suppose that the Whites defeated the Reds and thus prevented OTL's USSR from coming into being. What--be it a cohesive nation, a split-up territory of warlords, or maybe something else entirely--could have emerged in the fallen Empire's place?
Thank you in advance,
Zyobot
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 13, 2019 15:35:00 GMT
We all know how the Russian Civil War of 1917 to 1922--a veritable nationwide bloodbath between the united, Marx-inspired "Reds" and the divided, anti-Bolshevik "Whites"--ultimately ended. The communists' final triumph led to the founding of the Soviet Union and its eventual rise to superpower status as it went toe-to-toe with the capitalist United States for the latter half of the 20th Century, before collapsing in 1991 and showing that "the great socialist experiment" of Comrade Lenin's dreams couldn't last forever. But in a divergent twist of fate, let's suppose that the Whites defeated the Reds and thus prevented OTL's USSR from coming into being. What--be it a cohesive nation, a split-up territory of warlords, or maybe something else entirely--could have emerged in the fallen Empire's place? Thank you in advance, Zyobot Could end up like China until a major force either with ore without backing from some countries mange to unify the country, doubt we will see a Russian Empire 2.0. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 15:45:45 GMT
Russia becomes a plaything of the Western powers that backed and armed the Whites.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 13, 2019 16:13:41 GMT
An ultimate fate is difficult to predict
What I am sure of is that in the immediate post victory state, terrorism from the defeated Reds will be immense. Only a White Terror would stop this.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 13, 2019 16:34:56 GMT
An ultimate fate is difficult to predict What I am sure of is that in the immediate post victory state, terrorism from the defeated Reds will be immense. Only a White Terror would stop this.
Very likely. There was something of a White terror OTL but didn't seem to be anything like as harsh or organised as the Red terror. The key factor that could decide things might be what sort of white 'state' emerges. If a more moderate/reformist figure like Wrangel is influential and there is substantial social reforms things are likely to be fairly decent for the new state. It more reactionary generals gain power then your likely to see more general repression and bitter resentment of the lack of opportunity with a lot more resistance and possibly future rebellions.
Also possibly which monarch, presuming that is restored which is likely? If Nicholas and his family have still been massacred who would be the legitimate heir and what would be their stance? An autocratic system can't survive without a lot of repression and opposition but a more constitutional one should have a decent change.
Other related things would be its borders and what its stance is on former members of the empire that have broken away? Finland could still become independent and Ukraine would be a huge issue but I suspect that the Baltic states and the trans-Caucasus ones are likely to be reabsorbed, although if their really unlucky the Armenians will end up with more of their lands under Turkish rule. [Which actually prompts another question. If the communists are defeated earlier then can they still support the Turks in their war with Greece?]
Poland will be independent but might have something very close to the Curzon Line as its eastern border if it hasn't fought and won a war with either Russia and think it would have a lot less support against a White Russian state.
The Central Asian states are likely to have independence for a while but could see attempts to reimpose Russian control.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Feb 13, 2019 20:14:49 GMT
I'm seeing various different answers here so far. Are there any likely prospects for Russian industrialization, even if not necessarily to the extent of the USSR's overnight growth and development under Joe Stalin IOTL?
Much of what happens with this will be shaped by the emerging geopolitical entity(s)'s economic system and conditions, I'm sure. That reminds me, I should eventually start a thread concerning whether a capitalist Russia could industrialize or not at some point.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 13, 2019 20:15:38 GMT
Poland's future is something I hadn't considered. Moscow will be looking to re-establish 'order' there.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 14, 2019 11:41:59 GMT
I'm seeing various different answers here so far. Are there any likely prospects for Russian industrialization, even if not necessarily to the extent of the USSR's overnight growth and development under Joe Stalin IOTL? Much of what happens with this will be shaped by the emerging geopolitical entity(s)'s economic system and conditions, I'm sure. That reminds me, I should eventually start a thread concerning whether a capitalist Russia could industrialize or not at some point.
I think it will continue industrialising, although WWI and the civil war caused huge disruption. I think their industrial output at the end of the civil war OTL anyway, was only about 11% of what it was in 1914. This might alter here depending on what happens.
Would say there would be no rapid development of heavy industry as under Stalin but then there would probably be steadier growth throughout the period and your going to largely if not totally avoid the mass slaughters and economic devastation of things like the forced collectivisation so agriculture is likely to be markedly stronger and the population and living standards higher. At least unless the winning white regime is very reactionary and repressive but even then the death toll is likely to be markedly less, unless possibly there's another revolution.
The other advantage that a white Russia would have would be to have more access to investment from the western world as it would have considerable opportunities for development and wouldn't be the political pariah that the OTL USSR would be.
As such, in the unlikely event of a Nazi type state coming to power and being able to conquer France and turn on Russia the Germans are likely to find a much tougher fight and less success in the early months, although this Russia might have more problems maintaining the massive military build-up of the OTL USSR.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 14, 2019 11:45:06 GMT
Poland's future is something I hadn't considered. Moscow will be looking to re-establish 'order' there.
It would depend on the circumstances. After all Poland is already internationally accepted as an independent state by the Treaty of Versailles IIRC and has long been a troublesome possession for Russia so unless their particularly stupid the Russian rulers are likely to accept its loss. Especially if there is no version of the OTL conflict resulting in substantial Polish gains. They will probably want influence but less likely outright control as that would be too costly, especially as it would upset supporters in the west and as the Soviets found, could well be beyond Russia's strength after the civil war.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Feb 14, 2019 15:34:04 GMT
I'm seeing various different answers here so far. Are there any likely prospects for Russian industrialization, even if not necessarily to the extent of the USSR's overnight growth and development under Joe Stalin IOTL? Much of what happens with this will be shaped by the emerging geopolitical entity(s)'s economic system and conditions, I'm sure. That reminds me, I should eventually start a thread concerning whether a capitalist Russia could industrialize or not at some point.
I think it will continue industrialising, although WWI and the civil war caused huge disruption. I think their industrial output at the end of the civil war OTL anyway, was only about 11% of what it was in 1914. This might alter here depending on what happens.
Would say there would be no rapid development of heavy industry as under Stalin but then there would probably be steadier growth throughout the period and your going to largely if not totally avoid the mass slaughters and economic devastation of things like the forced collectivisation so agriculture is likely to be markedly stronger and the population and living standards higher. At least unless the winning white regime is very reactionary and repressive but even then the death toll is likely to be markedly less, unless possibly there's another revolution.
The other advantage that a white Russia would have would be to have more access to investment from the western world as it would have considerable opportunities for development and wouldn't be the political pariah that the OTL USSR would be.
As such, in the unlikely event of a Nazi type state coming to power and being able to conquer France and turn on Russia the Germans are likely to find a much tougher fight and less success in the early months, although this Russia might have more problems maintaining the massive military build-up of the OTL USSR.
Mm'kay. I get the impression that when it comes to whatever arises from the Empire's ashes, this scenario could go a bunch of different ways. It'd be interesting to see how a democratic, perhaps capitalistic Russia evolves as the 20th Century progresses and eventually leads into the 21st, provided that the nation in question lasts that long. On the flip-side, I also wonder how a much more authoritarian, even ultranationalistic White Russia would turn out--especially if it exhibits similar (if not even higher) levels of repression and ruthless drive compared to the Stalinist USSR that we're familiar with. As a matter of fact, an ASB encounter between the two might be worth discussing at some point in the near future. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 15, 2019 2:54:10 GMT
It might also be possible for the Whites to perform better simply by giving the Bolsheviks a bit more bad luck. Even so, Aleksander Kolchak would be the one to unite the fragmented White movement or perhaps Russia gets its warlord period before a Russian version of Chiang Kai Shek emerges to unite all the Russian lands and become the strongman (Kolchak is once again the likely candidate or Grigory Semyonov, the leader of the Transbaikal forces there).
A White victory in Russia might also result in a new wave of anti-Semitic pogroms should the Bolsheviks end up losing power in the process, with Denikin being responsible for the slaughter of 100,000 Jews in Ukraine. If Denikin did become the Russian Chiang instead of Kolchak or Semyonov, he might acquire a notorious reputation on par with Hitler and Enver Pasha. He could also become Russia's Jose Sanjurjo, albeit a bit more brutal. Denikin's Russia would not be a good place for a Jew, but he would also support an alliance with Symon Petliura's Ukrainian National Republic.
In addition though, a White Russia would also be in a position to help Georgia and Armenia keep its territorial gains from the Treaty of Sevres imposed upon the defeated Ottoman Empire. This would be important, as Armenia would become a bit stronger with the retention of the lands around Mt. Ararat and the region we know today as Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabagh), and due to the aftermath of the massacre of the Armenians by the Ottoman government there, they might have a chance of going home to a slightly enlarged Armenia.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Feb 15, 2019 3:59:44 GMT
It might also be possible for the Whites to perform better simply by giving the Bolsheviks a bit more bad luck. Even so, Aleksander Kolchak would be the one to unite the fragmented White movement or perhaps Russia gets its warlord period before a Russian version of Chiang Kai Shek emerges to unite all the Russian lands and become the strongman (Kolchak is once again the likely candidate or Grigory Semyonov, the leader of the Transbaikal forces there). A White victory in Russia might also result in a new wave of anti-Semitic pogroms should the Bolsheviks end up losing power in the process, with Denikin being responsible for the slaughter of 100,000 Jews in Ukraine. If Denikin did become the Russian Chiang instead of Kolchak or Semyonov, he might acquire a notorious reputation on par with Hitler and Enver Pasha. He could also become Russia's Jose Sanjurjo, albeit a bit more brutal. Denikin's Russia would not be a good place for a Jew, but he would also support an alliance with Symon Petliura's Ukrainian National Republic. In addition though, a White Russia would also be in a position to help Georgia and Armenia keep its territorial gains from the Treaty of Sevres imposed upon the defeated Ottoman Empire. This would be important, as Armenia would become a bit stronger with the retention of the lands around Mt. Ararat and the region we know today as Artsakh (or Nagorno-Karabagh), and due to the aftermath of the massacre of the Armenians by the Ottoman government there, they might have a chance of going home to a slightly enlarged Armenia. Hmm, interesting possibilities. As tyrannical as you characterize Denikin as, he doesn't seem to match Stalinist Russia in terms of sheer bloodshed just yet. After all, Uncle Joe was in charge during the starve-several-million-to-death Holodomor IOTL--something that his reactionary counterpart ITTL appears not to have replicated even with the slaughter of 100,000 Jews in Ukraine. I'll have to do more research to comment on the rest of your predictions, but not tonight. It's nearly 10:00 PM where I am, so I best be off to bed. Goodnight, Alternate Timelines; I'll be back to post tomorrow. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 15, 2019 6:21:29 GMT
Denikin wouldn't match the same kind of brutality as Stalin IOTL, but he might as well match the brutality of Franco and Mussolini in terms of dealing with their political enemies. However, he would continue to fan the flames of anti-Semitism and he might even create an ideology that would be similar to fascism, but heavily Russian flavored. There is one other thing that needs to be put into mind: there were two major Russian far-right movements in the 1930s: the RFP of Konstantin Rodzaevsky and the RFO of Anastas Vonsyatsky. The two leaders did cooperate during WWII, but they had several disagreements, among which the issue regarding the Jews in their vision of Russia.
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Post by lukedalton on Feb 15, 2019 19:02:56 GMT
Well, beat the Red it's only a part of the effort, there are nationalist in Ukraine, the Baltic, Poland and Finland and while taking back the first two will be more or less easy, the last two will be much much more difficult as the white leadership at max is ready to give local autonomy but at this stage neither the polish or the finnish want to be part of Russia; so a Russo-Polish war will be still in program and frankly i doubt that the rest of the Entente (US included) will be ok with Russia inglobe back Poland and Finland and at max will obtain a more favorable border.
In general i expect white Russia to be for many years very troubled as the only real thing that the white had in common was their anti-communist plus all the nationalist revolt and the direct consequences of the war
Internationally speaking, well Ataturk will not have soviet support and so can be much less succesfull in his effort and the Caucasus will become a new game between various nations.
With the URSS gone and the communist gone, the fear of the red wave will diminish as the fervor of the various communist party for a revolution and if things are more 'calm' the rise of fascism can be more easily stopped expecially in Italy.
With Russia not deciding of not paying debt will ease the general economic situation of France a little
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 15, 2019 19:19:47 GMT
Well, beat the Red it's only a part of the effort, there are nationalist in Ukraine, the Baltic, Poland and Finland and while taking back the first two will be more or less easy, the last two will be much much more difficult as the white leadership at max is ready to give local autonomy but at this stage neither the polish or the finnish want to be part of Russia; so a Russo-Polish war will be still in program and frankly i doubt that the rest of the Entente (US included) will be ok with Russia inglobe back Poland and Finland and at max will obtain a more favorable border. In general i expect white Russia to be for many years very troubled as the only real thing that the white had in common was their anti-communist plus all the nationalist revolt and the direct consequences of the war Internationally speaking, well Ataturk will not have soviet support and so can be much less succesfull in his effort and the Caucasus will become a new game between various nations. With the URSS gone and the communist gone, the fear of the red wave will diminish as the fervor of the various communist party for a revolution and if things are more 'calm' the rise of fascism can be more easily stopped expecially in Italy. With Russia not deciding of not paying debt will ease the general economic situation of France a little
I'm doubtful about a White Russia seeking to retake Poland, as its likely to want links with the western powers and hence to avoid becoming an international pariah as the Soviets did.
The failure of Lenin's coup in Russia will reduce the fear of communism but not totally remove it so still likely to be some right wing hard-liners feeding off that fear. There is likely to be hostility towards refugees from Russia in some countries as there will be fears that at least some are communists.
I'm not sure that Russia will be able to pay much towards its foreign debts, either pre-war or wartime if its still been through a civil war as well as WWI. You might end up with some agreement that reduces it to say 10% or 20% of the original debt or something like that to minimise the economic damage as this way at least the western loaners will get something back and Russia won't be isolated from the western financial systems. Even if you had a much better situation for Russia, say the war ends a bit earlier and the Provisional government survives and manages to defeat any communist coup attempts, Russia would struggle to pay off its huge war time debts.
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