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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 10, 2019 22:30:48 GMT
Somewhere in the 4th century, there was the migration of Goths into Roman territory and many Goths were vassalized by Attila and his Huns as well. With the collapse of the Huns in the aftermath of Attila's death, the Ostrogoths filled up the power vacuum by moving into the rest of the Balkans but formed an Ostrogothic kingdom in Italy. Was it possible for the Ostrogoths to build their state in the Balkan region instead of Italy? Could the presence of the Ostrogoths in the area close to Constantinople contribute to an earlier collapse of the Eastern Roman Empire around the same time as the collapse of the Western Roman Empire? I could imagine that the territory that would be seized by the Ostrogoths would be from the Danube (their western border) to the northern borderlands of what would become OTL southern Poland and bits of Western Ukraine, to the Dniester (eastern border) and even to Moesia and bits of Thrace (territory would be roughly similar in size and shape to the First Bulgarian Empire under Khan Krum, map used is the OTL map of the FBE):
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 10, 2019 23:17:53 GMT
TRS It shouldn't be impossible. In fact might be quite easy. IIRC the Ostrogoths were persuaded/bribed by the eastern emperor to invade Italy where another Germanic ruler had set up a kingdom and depose him. Checking this was Odoacer_King_of_Italy, see this section and the next on the Ostrogoth invasion. He was seen as a rival by the eastern emperor Zeno who offered the Ostrogoths Italy if they deposed Odocacer.
Checking the timing the Ostrogoths had been divided between two leaders, both called Theodoric which doesn't help and they had clashed with each other and with Zeno. After the death of Theodoric Strabo in 481 the other, Theodoric Amal [also called the Great] for a while provided military support to Zeno but in 486 he rebelled again and besieged Constantinople, cutting the water supply. See Zeno_and_the_Goths, for more details. At this point Zeno managed to 'buy' a peace and persuade Theodoric to take the Goths west to Italy. Possibly if Theodoric thinks he has a chance of taking the city, or deposing Zeno and establishing a puppet emperor or simply some other issue prevents an agreement then the Goths could stay in the Balkans and could well end up forming the sort of state/emperor you suggest.
Of course the down side for them would be that the Balkans, especially the northern areas, are exposed to further steppe invasions as well as Slavic incursions and the Avars aren't too far off. - Checking they turned up in 568.
You could end up with a much more Germanic presence in both Italy - as without the Gothic invasion Odoacer could end up forming his own dynasty and the invasion both caused problems in itself and allowed other groups, including the Burundians and Vandals to raid Italy - and in the Balkans.
Could be an interesting world.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 11, 2019 1:36:33 GMT
SO there were two Ostrogothic leaders who have a sense of rivalry with each other? That doesn't sound like a successful venture for the Ostrogoths. Though I am a bit skeptical as to think that Theodoric had a chance of conquering Constantinople or installing a puppet Eastern Roman Emperor that would be a virtual vassal of Theodoric's Ostrogoths. However, this is before Justinian's complete reconstruction of Constantinople to include those infamous walls. Perhaps if Attila had sacked Constantinople before they could finish their repairs of the city walls, that might be enough to damage the Eastern Roman Empire, though if the Ostrogoths were under Hunnic control by the time Attila dies, they could provide the spark that would regain their independence from their Hunnic overlords.
Let us not forget that Zeno also lived in the same era when Attila was raiding the Eastern Roman Empire, and a simple error on his part would have butterflied his attempts at conquering the Western Roman Empire.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 11, 2019 9:34:03 GMT
SO there were two Ostrogothic leaders who have a sense of rivalry with each other? That doesn't sound like a successful venture for the Ostrogoths. Though I am a bit skeptical as to think that Theodoric had a chance of conquering Constantinople or installing a puppet Eastern Roman Emperor that would be a virtual vassal of Theodoric's Ostrogoths. However, this is before Justinian's complete reconstruction of Constantinople to include those infamous walls. Perhaps if Attila had sacked Constantinople before they could finish their repairs of the city walls, that might be enough to damage the Eastern Roman Empire, though if the Ostrogoths were under Hunnic control by the time Attila dies, they could provide the spark that would regain their independence from their Hunnic overlords. Let us not forget that Zeno also lived in the same era when Attila was raiding the Eastern Roman Empire, and a simple error on his part would have butterflied his attempts at conquering the Western Roman Empire.
I didn't say he had an hope of conquering Constantinople, just what Wiki mentioned about the last clash between Theodoric and Zeno. Other emperors had been replaced due to internal politics and some in the west had become basically puppets of foreign mercenaries/invaders so that doesn't seem too impossible. Also you really need a much weaker eastern empire for such a Gothic state in the Balkans to survive. Ultimately I doubt there is room for both as major powers in the region.
By the time I'm mentioning the other Theodoric had died, although the link I posted on Odoacer hints at further division as when Theodoric's invasion of Italy struggles it mentions another Gothic leader sending him aid. However I think he had the loyalty of the bulk of the Ostrogoths and possibly could have prevented rivals emerging.
In anything but the short term, if you did get a powerful and stable Gothic empire in the region it should have the resources to conquer Constantinople albeit probably not without a great struggle.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 11, 2019 16:36:02 GMT
Yeah, and there were also Roman court politics to consider as well. It wouldn't be far fetched if Zeno and his successors had been given the Romulus Augustulus treatment. Moreover, the Ostrogoths would in this case be responsible for the collapse of both Roman Empires. I'm not sure when the Lombards had started to appear, but they might be assimilated into the larger Goth population in the Balkans.
I'm also unsure of what the relations between the Ostrogoths and their Visigoth cousins were like, but given the distance, it might not be that warm. One thing also to consider is that the collapse of both Roman Empires will actually give the Vandals a chance to survive. In this case, you may have a surviving Arian Christian state in North Africa, or both the two Gothic factions (Ostrogoths and Visigoths) and the Vandals would become the leaders of Arian Christendom. You might also have the Vandals expand into Egypt in this case, or the Ostrogoths would simply absorb the territories of the former Eastern Roman Empire while either the Visigoths or the Franks would absorb the territories of the former Western Roman Empire. Or alternatively, the Vandals conquer Visigothic Hispania.
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Post by stevep on Feb 11, 2019 23:36:20 GMT
Yeah, and there were also Roman court politics to consider as well. It wouldn't be far fetched if Zeno and his successors had been given the Romulus Augustulus treatment. Moreover, the Ostrogoths would in this case be responsible for the collapse of both Roman Empires. I'm not sure when the Lombards had started to appear, but they might be assimilated into the larger Goth population in the Balkans. I'm also unsure of what the relations between the Ostrogoths and their Visigoth cousins were like, but given the distance, it might not be that warm. One thing also to consider is that the collapse of both Roman Empires will actually give the Vandals a chance to survive. In this case, you may have a surviving Arian Christian state in North Africa, or both the two Gothic factions (Ostrogoths and Visigoths) and the Vandals would become the leaders of Arian Christendom. You might also have the Vandals expand into Egypt in this case, or the Ostrogoths would simply absorb the territories of the former Eastern Roman Empire while either the Visigoths or the Franks would absorb the territories of the former Western Roman Empire. Or alternatively, the Vandals conquer Visigothic Hispania.
There's a hell of a lot of potential routes things could go. I doubt the Ostrogoths would be able to take over the entire eastern empire. Apart from the fact their likely to face a lot of imperial opposition there would be the Sasanids to the east who are likely to inherit a lot of the east, which could have big impacts on many future events, including how Zoroastrism develops as well as eastern Christianity and possible equivalents of Islam. What happens to Egypt which is too far away for the Goths and quite possibly for the Sasanids? Also for the Goths to hold in the east do they have to convert to Orthodox Christianity rather than stay Arian and if so do they end up being absorbed by the much larger Greek culture?
In terms of the Lombards the link for Odocacer mentioned that in 487 he had driven elements of the Rugians from Noricum [ roughly modern Switzerland/Tyrol region but that faced with continued pressure and the Ostrogoth attack the remaining Romans fled to the incoming Ostrogoths and the Lombards started moving into the resultant vacuum. As such they are likely to arrive shortly although if the Ostrogoths stay in the east Odocacer might be able to repel them?
The Vandals could well end up raiding Egypt but I'm not sure they have the strength to invade and keep it any length of time. With a markedly more complete collapse of imperial power in the eastern empire they could be a hell of a problem and might end up seeking to establish bases in some of the eastern islands to conduct such attacks.
In the longer run I can't really see Arianism surviving anywhere in the empire because the incomers are too small a proportion of the total population unless they manage to do something like early Islam managed, coming in largely as liberators from an unpopular and fairly intolerant regime, showing a lot of tolerance and eventually converting the bulk of the local population. However this seems unlikely.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 12, 2019 3:35:33 GMT
The example of the Crimean Goths would be an indication of a blend between Hellenic and Gothic cultures, so in the case of the Ostrogoths, they would almost assimilate, but they get to keep some of their more prominent Gothic traditions and customs. It would be similar to the Slavic invasions and the subsequent rise of nations like Serbia and Bulgaria where Greek culture has been transmitted into their Slavic customs, as would Kievan Rus to a lesser extent. However, the Sassanians would have overstretched themselves if they tried to take Anatolia and directly incorporated it into their empire. However, you might get a larger expansion of an Armenian satellite state if the Eastern Roman Empire collapses a bit (OTL Byzantine Armenia would be attached to Sassanian Armenia). There might also be an attempt to revive the Palmyrene Empire by the Sassanians, but Egypt would definitely try to reassert itself as an independent, Coptic state in this case.
The Vandals wouldn't have a chance to stage a huge raid into Egypt, but they would consolidate their gains in North Africa around Carthage. This is the era where Gaiseric and Huneric were ruling the Vandal Kingdom, so they could also take part in the hijinks that would place the nails on the coffin of the Western Roman Empire. Hispania would be retaken if Gaiseric desired, though sooner or later the Vandals would face off against the Visigoths and Ostrogoths should both Roman Empires fall apart. Moreover, the Vandal adherence to Arianism was so strong that religious intolerance was the major factor of the Vandal state.
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Post by stevep on Feb 12, 2019 11:23:01 GMT
The example of the Crimean Goths would be an indication of a blend between Hellenic and Gothic cultures, so in the case of the Ostrogoths, they would almost assimilate, but they get to keep some of their more prominent Gothic traditions and customs. It would be similar to the Slavic invasions and the subsequent rise of nations like Serbia and Bulgaria where Greek culture has been transmitted into their Slavic customs, as would Kievan Rus to a lesser extent. However, the Sassanians would have overstretched themselves if they tried to take Anatolia and directly incorporated it into their empire. However, you might get a larger expansion of an Armenian satellite state if the Eastern Roman Empire collapses a bit (OTL Byzantine Armenia would be attached to Sassanian Armenia). There might also be an attempt to revive the Palmyrene Empire by the Sassanians, but Egypt would definitely try to reassert itself as an independent, Coptic state in this case. The Vandals wouldn't have a chance to stage a huge raid into Egypt, but they would consolidate their gains in North Africa around Carthage. This is the era where Gaiseric and Huneric were ruling the Vandal Kingdom, so they could also take part in the hijinks that would place the nails on the coffin of the Western Roman Empire. Hispania would be retaken if Gaiseric desired, though sooner or later the Vandals would face off against the Visigoths and Ostrogoths should both Roman Empires fall apart. Moreover, the Vandal adherence to Arianism was so strong that religious intolerance was the major factor of the Vandal state.
I don't know about the Sassanians/Sasanids - seen different names for them - suffering overstretch in Anatolia as they took it during the disastrous reign of Phocus and without a Byzantium revival might have held longed. Egypt might be more of a stretch but they would definitely want Syria and have a great chance to hold it. Of course there would be a lot of religious tension between the Zoroastrist and assorted Christian doctrines.
The western empire was pretty much dead by this time anyway but possibly without the Istrogothic invasion Odocacer might have stablised Italy. It said on his Wiki page that he forced the Vandals to return Sicily so that could be possible. They might look further afield if Italy looks too secure and the eastern empire has basically collapsed, or as you said try and return to controlling at least part of Iberia. However they do seem to have been more doctrinaire than the other Arian groups so in the longer run their likely to falter.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 13, 2019 3:31:48 GMT
One other thing too: it would be interesting to see how the Ostrogoths would handle the Avar incursions into Europe as well. Though I'm not sure what the Gothic fighting ability is like, the Avars were mostly light cavalry based. Despite the protection that they may get from the Carpathian mountains, the Avars would just go through what would become Wallachia and Moldavia due to it being flat land. Another thing too is that during this time period, the Avars were allied with the Lombards against the Gepids, so in an Ostrogoth Balkan scenario, the Gepids would actually become allies of the Ostrogoths. Alternatively, the Avars may also opt to invade the Sassanian Empire instead since there is no Eastern Roman Empire to contend with (alternatively, the Eastern Roman Empire might fracture into several successor states, resembling OTL China's Warlord period).
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Post by stevep on Feb 13, 2019 16:20:08 GMT
One other thing too: it would be interesting to see how the Ostrogoths would handle the Avar incursions into Europe as well. Though I'm not sure what the Gothic fighting ability is like, the Avars were mostly light cavalry based. Despite the protection that they may get from the Carpathian mountains, the Avars would just go through what would become Wallachia and Moldavia due to it being flat land. Another thing too is that during this time period, the Avars were allied with the Lombards against the Gepids, so in an Ostrogoth Balkan scenario, the Gepids would actually become allies of the Ostrogoths. Alternatively, the Avars may also opt to invade the Sassanian Empire instead since there is no Eastern Roman Empire to contend with (alternatively, the Eastern Roman Empire might fracture into several successor states, resembling OTL China's Warlord period).
Definitely plenty of options, although that would be the big issue for any Gothic Balkan empire. Not only would it clash with any Greek successor state but it would be 1st in line for any new steppe incursions. It might depend on how the Ostrogoths adjust to their new role as a medium/large size kingdom, especially in terms of their approach to their new subjects. If their pretty tolerant that would not only give them more support against such attacks but also their going to be more open to new ideas in terms of military tactics and organisation, economic organisation and the like.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 14, 2019 15:35:07 GMT
That would be true too, although it may depend on how the Goths would treat their conquered ex-Roman subjects based on their past experiences. But yeah, if they were tolerant, then they can tap into that extra manpower needed to stop any Avar incursions into the Balkans.
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