Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

There was more hope for what happened, to see territory gained and a defeated enemy, but this is a front that Moscow didn't want to see opened up.
If Poland was to want Kaliningrad, would they want too all the Russians (and Belorussians too I believe) who live there as citizens? If not, they'd have to chuck them out: shades of 1945 there.

If Poland takes over, much of the Russians will leave voluntarily. The current population is ~450,000. Poland is 40,000,000. That is 1%. Many of the jobs are ited to the Russian state, with the Russian state gone, many will leave on their own accord. There are ways to do soft cleansing that will pretty much take care of that for Poland. That is not a problem for Poland to do. Polish banks will "finance" Polish business to open up shop. And these Polish business will import Polish workers and with the Russian goverment jobs gone and Polish workers coming in, this will be nothing like 1945. More like Croatia in 1995 where the Serbs left rather then live in Croatia. The same thing will happen in Kalilingrad.

One Hundred and Fifty–Four

Benghazi, Libya’s second city across in the eastern half of the country, had been subjected to air attacks by NATO aircraft during Gaddafi’s conflict with the Coalition. There had been bombings of military bases outside the city while within, the military compound of Katiba had been flattened by repeated strikes by the Armee de l’Air. As the French had done with the Bab al-Azizia inside Tripoli, they had struck here at a centre of regime power – physical but also symbolic – right in the middle of the city. Blowing up the fortified Katiba where troops were garrisoned had been seen, heard and felt by those in Benghazi. The repeated attacks came against a backdrop of other violence in the city.

With Libya at war, the country was under immense strain away from the actual conflict that it had already decisively lost. Libya wasn’t exporting oil and wasn’t importing food. There was no money and there was nothing to eat. When the people complained, the regime cracked down. Protests were met with gunfire. A cycle of violence had started with this and wouldn’t cease. In Benghazi, the numbers of the dead from the regime violence against civilians was in the hundreds. The people of city kept on coming out to protest and demand no longer just food but an end to the regime too now. When they did, they were shot at. Places such as one of the city’s central squares, Maydan al Shajara, but also the road outside the mansion which was the home of the city’s mayor would run with blood. Huma Ben Amer was the mayor of Benghazi. She was infamous throughout Libya and had been given the name ‘Huma the Executioner’ after an incident back in 1984 when she impressed Gaddafi by graphically assisting in a hanging of a regime opponent on live television when just an ordinary citizen. Being the ‘right sort’ of character for his revolutionary regime, she had been richly rewarded: Benghazi was her fiefdom to enrich herself from but also oppress. Huma the Executioner had been living up to her apt sobriquet since the war had brought protests. Those who wanted to openly protest were shot down but there too were other actions taken on her orders throughout Benghazi including public executions. Any sign of opposition to the regime – from teenagers with graffiti against the regime to complaints about the lack of electricity leading to people refusing to pay their bills – were met with more violence. The protesters had moved against her opulent home and she had brought in soldiers with machine guns who had then afterwards bayonetted those who survived the fusillade of fire.

On August 29th, getting nowhere with protesting, a dedicated group of regime opponents blew her up. They got her when she was in her armoured car as part of a well-defended convoy. A trio of volunteers using vehicles of their own to crash into the convoy with explosives rigged to them and their cars. Huma the Executioner was dead but so too were many others. From Tripoli, among many of his verbal tirades against the West in recent weeks, Gaddafi had said that attacks against Libya would only ‘embolden terrorists’ and had had specially mentioned Al Qaeda. This wasn’t an Al Qaeda attack but it had all of the hallmarks of one. Gaddafi was correct in what he had said too on matters such as terror groups: all across Libya, they were organising, arming and getting ready to commit attacks similar to the one undertaken in Benghazi by local radicals. Of course, he had other things to say as well. There was bravado concerning how Libya was winning the war along with promises to flood Europe with ‘African refugees’. This second matter was something serious and a threat which could be carried out. He was sure this would break the will of Italy especially to carry on the fight: for many years now, Berlusconi’s government had been having dealings with Gaddafi that made sure that wouldn’t happen. The response to this across Europe was the opposite of what Gaddafi intended though. It only hardened resolve to see the end of his regime… and also go in there and stop that flood from occurring.

After the slaying of Huma the Executioner, that Sunday saw immense trouble take place throughout the city which she had ruled over with an iron fist beforehand. It had been the signal that brought Benghazi out in full revolt. The first shots of the revolution had now been fired, it would be claimed, despite what others would say about those occurring sometime previously. Regardless, Benghazi was alive with revolt. Officials fled and so too did many military officers. Conscript soldiers who had before been firing on civilian protesters, rebelled against the regime. They killed many of their own superiors though the quick-thinking ones made daring escapes out of the city. Things happened very fast. Regime control over Benghazi collapsed pretty quickly. Inside there, several groups would vie for control. The regime had been effective at cracking down on opposition leaders but others remained alive. They were talking and seeking to organise taking over. Big personalities and different priorities were involved in this though. There was too the presence of radicals in Benghazi who would broke no compromise with anyone when it came to sharing the power that they wanted for themselves.

From afar, NATO and the Coalition were watching Benghazi.

At the urging of President Sarkozy, plans were underway to make a landing inside Libya and this would be done in conjunction with Egypt entering the Coalition – the Americans had brokered that deal – while invading Libya too. The situation inside Benghazi was important in all of this because it was the gateway to eastern Libya. The idea was to land here and take control of much of the Cyrenaica region by doing so. Regime control was known to be weak with military forces blown apart. There were access points through the international airport plus also military airfields: further airheads were elsewhere. The French intended to take the lead and land here alongside the Italians and Spanish with Portugal and especially the United States providing assistance afterwards. In distant flank support of the Benghazi landings, the French were too aiming to land at Sirte while the Egyptians would pour across the border going both along the coast to Tobruk but also across the desert to reach Benghazi as well. Doing this was still some time away. The forces assigned were ready but the logistics still needed sorting and there was too the task of gaining further intelligence. Concerns had been expressed about arriving in a dangerous situation where it wasn’t just the Libyan regime as an opponent but others too. Seeing the violence break out so strong, there was now some worry on that latter note. Who were these people who had committed such a lethal terror attack against Benghazi’s mayor? How would they respond to NATO troops arriving in the city?

The operation wasn’t put on hold nor delayed but further attention as being paid to the situation on the ground. Maybe it should have been delayed though and there were some who cautioned that it should be. Politics were pushing for the invasion to get started and intelligence officials came under pressure to deliver the ‘right’ conclusions to match political expectations. This shouldn’t have been done but it was happening nonetheless.


In Lebanon, Israeli forces remained fighting Hezbollah where they met them. They weren’t marching on Beirut nor heading for the Beqaa Valley but instead staying inside the southern half of that nation and fighting against this lone opponent. Lebanese security forces had fled, joining countless civilians in getting away, while Hezbollah stayed where they were. There was increasingly Iranian assistance to them coming from afar despite Israeli efforts to stop that using air strikes far afield while also undertaking commando actions. Airheads for landing supplies of weapons and bringing in volunteers across Lebanon and Syria to join this fight were hit and the Americans kept Iraqi airspace closed but it was through Turkey that Iran had access to support Hezbollah. The Israeli Government was unable to close that Turkish route though carried on doing what it could closer to the frontlines. Hezbollah was losing fighters by the thousands but they kept on fighting. They could no longer fire rockets into northern Israel and had been pushed deep into the Lebanese countryside under the barrage of combined arms warfare yet on they fought. Israeli casualties were far lower than those Hezbollah (and also Lebanese civilians caught in crossfire) had taken. However, they continued to mount with deaths and injuries occurring. The Israeli Defence Forces, the army especially, was a volunteer-based force but still morale sunk. It went down even further when it came to those missing. Hezbollah spent a lot of effort in taking Israeli captives – taking losses of their own aplenty just to snatch people – and then getting them away from the battlefield. Israeli special forces rescued some, taking losses while doing so, and thus stopped the disappearances of them. However, many more vanished. They could have been anywhere: Lebanon, Syria or Iran.

The fighting in Lebanon went on and on with no end in sight to it.

Israel was becoming open to the idea of seeing an ending to the war in Syria. They’d won there, their objectives had been fulfilled. Syria’s air and missile forces had been smashed apart while Russian forces in the country had been all but wiped out with no reinforcement possible. Russia couldn’t help its own gutted forces in-country let alone the Syrian regime. What Netanyahu in Tel Aviv had wanted to see done had been achieved. Hezbollah was a different enemy, one to be destroyed, but bringing down the regime of Assad wasn’t desired. ‘Helping’ Israel understand this had been the recent mission of the Biden Administration. Kerry and Warner had both been active on this matter with the latter, the secretary of state, currently in Israel. Mark Warner spoke of the fears of the United States should the Assad regime come down as well as telling the Israelis that there was no American wish for their own troops to remain fighting inside Syria for much longer. The bigger war with Russia continued and while Israel wouldn’t be abandoned, America wouldn’t be involved in a never-ending war on-the-ground in Syria when all objectives had been met here. Netanyahu wasn’t one to be pushed about by Washington yet he was in agreement. Israel had access to the same information that the Americans had when it came to the internal pressures that Assad was under. There had been protests in many parts of Syria, Damascus especially, over access to food and medicines. The people were hungry and getting desperate. Regime efforts to turn their rage towards the hated ‘Zionists and American Imperialists’ had only been partially-successful. None of this had been helped when protesters had been shot. There was too the long, open Syrian-Iraqi border. In the skies, the US Air Force could close that but over it at ground level across were going fighters for the two wars raging. There were people moving both ways – to the fighting in each country including Syrian nationals going to each – but the movement into Syria worried Tel Aviv and Washington.

No one wanted to see a civil war in Syria though this was for their own purposes, not the people who lived there.

There had already been contact made through backchannels with the Assad regime that Israeli diplomats & intelligence officials had using Jordanian and Saudi intermediaries. These were used again. An approach was made, one which the United States was fully onboard with… and the rest of the Coalition was only partly aware of. Israel was willing to cease the fighting and talk about conditions of a withdrawal. The opening terms were considered by Netanyahu to be generous. The Syrians were expected to be difficult but were thought to be willing to come around in the end. They had to understand the bad situation they were in. They had to be willing to talk, surely?

Whether Assad was willing to or not, it didn’t matter. Things had gone too far. Syria was at breaking point and the regime had run out of time. What had happened in Libya was going to be repeated, though on a far bigger scale. If Israel, the United States and the Coalition thought that they were going to walk away from Syria unscathed, they were dead wrong.

Arc Light! Beware the BUFF!

One Hundred and Fifty–Six

In the years following the war, many films would be released by Hollywood studios which touched upon subjects of the Third World War. One of those was the production Precision. This was meant to be a summer blockbuster, an action film that would rake in loads of money and maybe even awards too. It was a big budget flop. Production issues including the first director leaving midway through filming, distribution issues, a high-profile lawsuit and a personal scandal involving the lead male star on the opening weekend all hurt. Precision was something soon forgotten by many yet a cautionary tale for others about how not to make a war film.

The line ‘Based on a true story’ was used in the production and release of the film. That was stretching things quite a bit! Precision centred upon an attack by Russian commandos in the Panama Canal and the successful effort made by US Navy SEALs to stop them from blocking this wartime strategic waterway. This happened. One of those SEALs, who won the Medal of Honor for his actions yet then inflamed the wrath of the Pentagon (helping to bring about to that lawsuit from others involved in what happened in Panama) when writing a best-selling book about it all, was involved in the making of the film. Despite his presence, not much of the truth of the events were depicted in the screenplay. There was no cooperation from the Pentagon and neither the Panamanian authorities too. The studio didn’t have access to still-secret information post-war and that could have excused some of the film but that former SEAL’s presence didn’t nor some of the other glaring inadequacies with the production. Precision moved the Spetsnaz strike to the opening of the war rather than three plus weeks in. It made out that things were closer than they really were, that the Russians nearly achieved all that they intended to as well. In typical Hollywood fashion, only at the last moment were they stopped. That wasn’t what happened. Because it was a film meant for entertainment – ‘based on a true story’ notwithstanding – it told a different story for dramatic effect. The male lead in the film was one of those SEALs (based on that former US Navy officer who was being sued) who was there but there was a female lead in the form of a stunningly attractive naval intelligence officer: she was fictional. Their relationship, the love story, was just made up. No one like her on-the-ground in Panama was shouting warnings that only the heroic male lead would listen to nor did her daring actions at the last minute save the day. If there had been someone like her present in Panama when the real events happened, she wouldn’t have spent most of her time on the beach in a swimsuit (a shot of that, with a CGI-enhanced cleavage was on the movie promotional poster) nor would the SEAL have had the plentiful time off duty to romance her nor share the many secrets he did. As to the film’s lead baddie, he was an archetypal villain by Hollywood standards. Played by a Scandinavian actor, with a Russian accent mocked by reviewers, he spent much of his time in Panama either at cocktail parties, running across rooftops being chased by the hero and then ogling & leering at the female lead when he took her prisoner before her rescue and her subsequently doing what she did to save the day and get her man. None of the Spetsnaz in Panama had any time for any of that silliness. In the gunfights – among the many explosions – the Russians couldn’t shoot straight despite firing masses of bullets from assault rifles which never needed a new magazine while the Americans always shot true. All of the Russians died in the end of the film, including the baddie right at the end – after he’d told his captive his plan too – while the Americans only had one man shot and he survived too, saved by the male heroic lead among all of his other feats. In reality, as done elsewhere, the Spetsnaz used poison-tipped bullets that took the lives of anyone shot and they could shoot straight too. Eight Americans were killed in Panama along with a whole load of other people as well… none mentioned in the abomination which was Precision. At the end, the male & female leads shared a kiss and then the credits rolled to give a happy ending.

Precision was a terrible film. It was laughable too, not in a good way. There was a wartime Spetsnaz attack in Panama though which a team of SEALs did halt. That film also missed out important bits such as how the Russians got to the Panama Canal, how the Americans discovered that planned attack and also what happened afterwards.

*

The Russian commando team came up to Panama from Peru. The Peruvian government had no idea that the Spetsnaz team had staged out of their country. In Lima, like capitals across Latin America, neutrality in the global conflict elsewhere was sought. Even regimes such as Castro’s in Cuba and Chavez’s in Venezuela did all that they could to stay out. They all feared war coming to their shores – public bravado from some aside, especially in the ‘pink tide’ countries – after watching what was happening with Russia. American aircraft had put bombs into the heart of Moscow and smashed the Russian armed forces to pieces. Only a fool would fight the United States unless they had no other choice. There were non-state actors who had a presence in Latin America though, the multi-national drug cartels. For hefty sums of cash as well as access to weaponry, with the added addition of immense stupidity, a couple of the cartel leaders had got involved with the GRU and the SVR. Peru might not be a nation which would spring to mind when thinking of the international drug trade, but it was an important country for that business. The cartels had a presence there and Russia’s intelligence agencies had been making use of their facilities and smuggling routes.

A private aircraft had taken the Spetsnaz to Panama. They’d met there with in-country contacts and been issued with weapons. Their commander was briefed by his GRU superior on the final details of their mission. He was told the truth: things had gotten far more complicated than originally foreseen. The chances of success had been lowered significantly. Nonetheless, the orders still stood. A ship transiting the Panama Canal was to be hijacked and used to block this international waterway for the passage of other ships. In addition, using the cover of that attack, explosives would be employed to then do serious damage to the infrastructure of the canal. Improvised blockships can be a challenge for military engineers to clear yet can be dealt with: Russia was aiming to do more than that.

The final go-order came through and the Russian commandos went into action… and the Americans had their SEALs waiting for them.

The United States’ government agencies had their own wartime contacts with the drug cartels. Things not done in peacetime due to political reasons were now being done in wartime. The Russians had been shown to have made use of them already and therefore the danger that these non-state actors posed classified them as a security threat of the highest order. Those who were willing to work with the United States wouldn’t be targeted for destruction like those who refused to. Organisations such as the CIA, the DIA, the FBI and the NSA used information from the DEA and ICE – so many acronyms! – to establish contact with leaders and senior people in several of the cartels to find out who was working for the Russians and who wasn’t. Information flowed in when the cartels received assurances and also fully understood that the gloves had come off when it came to how the Americans were prepared to act. In a flurry, they were selling each other out. There were many in the DEA and ICE who were left rather unhappy at some of the things that happened and issued dire warnings for the future, but for now at least half of the main drug cartels were working for the United States. Of course, there was much duplicity here – on both sides – but information was flowing. The Peru connection was identified and while late and with little concrete information, those Spetsnaz were identified as having made it to Panama. Their exact location wasn’t known and nor was what they were going to do but it didn’t take a genius to figure out that they posed a threat to the Panama Canal. It was being used by American and Coalition shipping to support the global conflict. Why wouldn’t Russia want to put a dent into that movement of goods that was helping to defeat them? Taken from Task Force Hunter, the combined grouping of special forces & intelligence operatives who’d taken down Obama’s killers but been only partially active since, were SEALs who were flown down to Panama. Both Nunn and Warner had much contact with their opposite numbers down in that small country while Biden personally spoke with President Martinelli. Panama’s leader agreed that the canal needed defending against an attack, one which the Americans told him was imminent, and while there was a lot of back-and-forth due to politics, Panama would cooperate with the United States to stop an attack. This shipping route was the lifeblood of Panama and to see it blocked would damage Panama’s economy (perhaps fatally) as much as it would hurt America’s warfighting capability.

Knowing it likely that the Russians were soon to attack the canal by taking over a ship was one thing; knowing which ship, exactly where and exactly when was something else. Contacts were leaned on heavily by the US Intelligence Community in Panama, Mexico and elsewhere but that information didn’t come until the very last moment. With hours to spare, thanks to a man in Panama who gave his life to get that information to the United States, the SEALs were tipped off.

It was the SS Ocean Goliath that the Russians were to attack as it approached the Gatun Locks after transiting west-to-east through the Panama Canal as part of a convoy of ships laden with military stores. The SEALs were covertly dispatched to the ship as well as the area around those lock gates at the Atlantic side of the canal. When the attack came, the Russians used speedboats while attempting to board the Ocean Goliath. They had a good plan and it should have worked. After taking the ship, they would have killed every crew member aboard then rammed the targeted lock gates while turning the ship sideways before opening the seacocks. Armed men laden with satchel charges were then meant to get off and start blowing up key parts of the infrastructure surrounding the gates’ operation rather than those huge structures themselves. But the Spetsnaz couldn’t get aboard the Ocean Goliath. Snipers aboard spotted them using night-scopes and opened fire. A pair of helicopters turned up and from them mini-guns as well as aloft snipers also fired on the Russians. The two speedboats were sunk and the Russians took terrible losses. They kept on trying, unaware of how many of their men were dead, but failed. So much for how that post-war movie depicted things!

Faced with such murderous defensive fire, the few remaining Spetsnaz eventually abandoned the mission and attempted to flee. The Americans pursued them: it had been agreed that Panamanian security forces would stay out of this though there were conditions attached there. The United States couldn’t do what it wanted inside Panama. Martinelli, a populist, wouldn’t accept that not with the complicated history when it came to America and Panama. Still, the SEALs hunted down those who fled. The killed some more though gained some captives as well. In doing so, they took their own casualties too. One SEAL had been shot when aboard the Ocean Goliath (as in the movie) but seven more were killed when an RPG exploded on contact with the tail rotor of one of the stealthy – and secretive – Black Hawks used in that pursuit, bringing it down into a fiery crash.

Recriminations would come for this despite the successful blunting of that attempted attack. Those across Latin America who had and continued to aid Russia would be on the receiving end of them. It wouldn’t be pretty.

Thank you. I wanted to do something different, with the start of the update, and the idea of post-war pop culture has been mentioned before so I ran with it.