Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

And, of course, there is Kaliningrad too: also near to NATO lines and somewhere else valuable.
The nuclear issue is a very real thing indeed. This is sovereign soil of Mother Russia and - like any country - when it comes to its own land, Russia will be furious.

I am surprised that there are no JSDF units taking part considering Sakhalin is former Japanese territory and they would certainly want it back along with the northern islands off Hokkaido.

Would the book Arc Light be an inspiration for this particular path the topic has taken ?
I enjoyed that book and wait for the next update to see where this timeline is going.
As for Russia being furious about loss of territory,

As the saying goes,
"They that sow the wind, shall reap the whirlwind"

One Hundred and Twenty

The wider war was two weeks old now yet the spread to Libya had seen conflict there for less than a week. What a week that was turning out to be for Gaddafi’s Libya. The country had been blasted by American air power and then blasted some more. For good measure, this Friday saw further attacks take place. Again the US Air Force flying their B-52 bombers from Spain and the US Navy with its FA-18 strike-fighters based upon the USS John C. Stennis struck at Libyan targets, yet now the European members of NATO were far more involved. Using distant land bases and also their own aircraft carriers, France, Portugal & Spain had already taken part in air attacks. Now Italy had opened up its airbases to its NATO allies as well as joining in the fighting as well. Mainland Italy and the islands of Sardinia and Sicily filled up with aircraft whose task was to bomb military targets in Libya.

The American-led rescue efforts of all of those diplomatic hostages was still several days away. Until Operation Midnight Talon took place, there were multiple sites which couldn’t be hit from the air. That left many others though, with plenty of those seeing the ‘rubble bounced’ as they were ‘re-serviced’. Libya’s air force and its air defences had been shown to be one heck of a paper tiger. Yes, at times that tiger still had claws but even those were rather blunt. Years of sanctions and thus military neglect couldn’t be fixed by a sudden injection of some fancy hardware from Russia only last year. Upgrades were needed on radars, electronics and communications of those systems to make them as viable in 2010 as they would have been in their 1980s heyday. The money but also the time hadn’t been spent. Libya’s skies were open.

Coordinating their air warfare efforts, the Americans and the Europeans were blasting Libya to pieces. Airfields, naval bases, troops barracks, missile & radar sites and communications stations were hit. August 20th was quite the day for NATO ordnance expenditure. Missiles and bombs rained down upon Gaddafi’s regime and its military infrastructure. The Libyans did put up an effort to try and fight this assault from above. SAMs were launched, anti-aircraft guns fired and aircraft were put into the sky. Those air defences attracted the attention of more air strikes while the fighters flying were knocked down. Portugal had a squadron of F-16s flying from Decimomannu in Sardinia: they took down a pair of Libyan jets. The Spanish had Typhoons and Hornets deployed to mainland Italy at Gioia del Colle. These aircraft would claim twice as many air to air kills today than the Portuguese. NATO AWACS aircraft and tankers assisted both the Portuguese and Spanish like they did the French and the Italians too. France had Mirage-2000s as well as Rafales at Trapani on Sicily. As to the Italians, they had deployed some aircraft in recent days to Poland yet the majority of their air force was spread through mainland and island bases with Tornados, Typhoons and even some leased F-16s (the jets were due to go back to the Americans from whom they had been lent several years beforehand) undertaking missions. Kills in the skies were scored by these two air forces like their counterparts with the French claiming five and the Italians eight. The Libyans had a lot of aircraft, some of them quite useless and helpless in the skies. More of them were taken down by the US Navy combined than what these land-based European air forces flying from Italy managed to gain: the Americans especially running up a ‘high score’ when the Libyans flew Eastern Bloc era L-39s and G-2 Galebs. The pilots flying those trainers had been sent into the sky armed and were taken down as legitimate targets.

European navies joined with the Americans and their carrier battle group. There was talk that at some point next week the Stennis might be going off to the east and closer to Syria. Whether that was true was unknown to those who heard the rumours: it would certainly be here for a while, at least until that much-heralded hostage rescue operation was undertaken. France, Italy and Spain each had an aircraft carrier in the waters to the north of Libya with aircraft flying from them. The FNS Charles de Gaulle was the largest and most-capable: from it flew newer Rafales and older Super Étendards. The Italian Navy was doing everything it could to rush the completion of the ITS Cavour but that unfinished light carrier wasn’t here: instead they had the ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi. Upgraded AV-8B Harriers flew from the Garibaldi like they did the Spanish SPS Principe de Asturias. Downing fighters wasn’t what these naval aircraft were up to today. The French, Italians and Spanish bombed Libyan military bases instead. The French used their Super Étendards to make a stand-off attack over Tripoli when missiles from them joined those fired from several vessels which were part of the de Gaulle’s task group. The target for dozens of missiles was the imposing Bab al-Azizia complex in the heart of Libya’s capital. As they had done in 1986, the Americans had already hit it hard but the French Navy did so once again today. Those missiles exploded inside the reinforced walls but also against several of them too. All of Tripoli would know that the symbolic centre of Gaddafi’s rule had been hit and, like a fortress of old, its walls breached. The Bab al-Azizia was a valid military target and not just something for propaganda. There were tunnels beneath where Libya’s war effort was being directed from. Yet, Sarkozy had ordered this major attack and done so personally. From inside the complex last night, Gaddafi had made an appearance which had been broadcast on Russian state media and also Al Jazeera. He had called upon ‘his fellow Arabs’ to rise up against ‘Imperialist invaders and Zionists’: his language was very much the old Gaddafi, not something which had been seen in a long while. It had quite the Islamist tone to it too. In addition, and why the French President acted, was the claims that Gaddafi had made. Libya’s leader had asserted the that money from his nation had financed the successful 2007 election campaign of Sarkozy. He said he had proof too, proof which he would show the world.

The Bab al-Azizia would burn after the French attack, lighting up the city of Tripoli through the coming night. There was trouble in the city where security forces clashed with looters. No political protest was taking place but rather criminal acts. Some daring acts of vandalism took place as well with images of Gaddafi daubed with insulting & inflammatory graffiti. Like the looters, those scrawling the graffiti were shot on-sight when caught. Their families and neighbours would be outraged. They could do nothing to avenge their sons and brothers at this time though. Maybe in the future that might change…


Israel’s war with Syria had grown fast. Hezbollah had joined in and then the Americans had too entered the fight. Both the regime in Damascus and the quasi-state within Lebanon had made themselves the enemy of the Coalition by doing so though each would assert that they had been attacked first. The war here in this ever-so volatile part of the Middle East had not yet spread elsewhere around the borders of Israel. Neither Fatah in the West Bank nor Hamas in the Gaza Strip had yet to get involved. Politics and behind-the-scenes deals had come into play. As to what Israel had done with their pre-emptive strikes, this had had an unforeseen effect back in the United States. Congress had confirmed Sam Nunn and General Casey as Secretary of Defence and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff respectively within days of their nominations – herculean efforts to do this had been undertaken and there were those who decried elements of the process as unconstitutional – but had taken their time with Mark Warner for Secretary of State and especially John Kerry for Vice President. Warner had finally been confirmed on Wednesday but with Kerry, this was still an ongoing process. Senators had had questions for Warner when it came to Israel. Still a relative fresh-face in Washington, the former Governor & Senator form Virginia had managed to dodge the worst issues because he didn’t have too much baggage. Congress too had finally realised that maybe the reason why the Coalition had been missing the significant American diplomatic impetus it needed was because they had taken so long in confirming Warner! Kerry had baggage, lots of it. It wasn’t even Israel-related but that didn’t matter. Israel’s actions and the manner which many saw as the United States following them into the conflict with Syria set off a firestorm. There were those opposed to Israel’s action, those in support of it, those who believed it should be done differently and those who wanted to see their personal influence brought to bare there. Kerry was caught right in the middle of this. Cloture had still not been brought forward leading to a vote as confirmation hearings were still taking place. Three-fifth’s majority would be needed for an ‘aye’ vote for Kerry yet even with the Democrats having almost the numbers – Warner had taken up his post at the State Department and Kerry couldn’t vote for himself… or could he? – it wasn’t a matter of just convincing a few Republicans to act in the national interest to get enough votes. Many were prepared to do that… but not enough Democrats were on-side with Kerry, at least not seeing him in-place just yet without being beat up a bit. It was a mess. Kerry’s position on Israel was stated to be in-line with the Biden Administration and there should have been no issue, yet there was. Senators were thinking of their voters with many eying not only this year’s Mid-Terms but also the presidential election in 2012 with – presumably – a Biden-Kerry ticket too.

America had a president and a line of succession – through Nancy Pelosi to Daniel Inouye to now Warner – but still no vice president.

They could argue all that they wanted back in Washington about the real positions on the Israeli-Syria/Hezbollah War by their vice presidential nominee. That mattered for naught on the ground and in the skies where this conflict raged. Israel’s armies were inside Syria and moving towards Damascus. Taking the city and occupying it was certainty not what the Israeli Government wanted to do! The Syrians didn’t know that though and they fought to defend it from the relentless Israeli approach. Israeli tanks started reaching the outskirts through today where they crashed through the fences at the airport and surrounding airbases. Their aircraft had already blown such places apart but now they took physical control. Syrian forces attacked the Israeli’s flanks. Casualties occurred on both sides and for the Israelis, these were way above projections. Some senior people in Israeli uniform weren’t looking forward to the Americans with their US Army and US Marines detachments forming part of Operation David’s Shield turning up to do what the American military was infamous for: telling other people how that they fighting their war the wrong way. However, there were many Israeli generals who did want them here in battle as soon as possible. They could take some of the burden of the fighting and bring with them all of their fire power too. From Tel Aviv, it was Prime Minister Netanyahu who was demanding – not asking – that the Stennis be off Haifa or Lebanon and flying strike missions as well as wanting to see US Air Force jets transferred from Eastern Europe to the British bases in Cyprus. Israel didn’t want to see the Americans flying from Israeli airbases though. Their feelings on that saw others elsewhere throw their hands up in despair at such an attitude coming from allies who demanded so much, had unbending red lines and were even more pushy in their own sense of superiority than they muttered that their supposed allies were.

Israel fought in Lebanon like they fought in Syria. Once Hezbollah had struck with its rockets and missiles, Israel had responded with its air power unleashed against them. The mistakes of 2006 weren’t to be repeated here, Netanyahu demanded, when it came to fighting in Lebanon. Israeli troops moved into their country’s northern neighbour to fight the terrorists within. Restrictions on fire power and the nauseating presence of foreign media like there had been four years ago were absent. Israel set about wiping out Hezbollah and whilst doing so, they would be blasting the unfortunate Lebanon to pieces with no one from aboard who had any significant pull moving to stop them. Tel Aviv would remind anyone who had any doubts abroad that Hezbollah was after all like Syria and ally of Russia. This may have sat very uneasy in the White House, and was a real problem in European capitals, but it went on regardless.

Ouch, I really hope that this won't shatter Syria. But at least Assad won't be releasing the Jihadists to destroy foreign support for rebels here. The lines are firmly drawn kn that regard.