Post by James G on Dec 21, 2018 22:24:31 GMT
In early 2017, Prime Minister May privately considers calling an early UK general election. The Brexit process has just been started and there has been difficulties in Parliament with this. A larger majority in the Commons than the one she inherited would help her address those. She sees the Labour opposition in crisis (by-elections and huge arguments) and polling for the Conservative shows a massive lead. She seriously considers calling a snap election.
However, she wavers. Corbyn has just won two internal Labour elections on the bounce. There is a danger there he could do the impossible a pull off a third victory, this time taking the Commons. Madness that might seem but his victory in 2015 was madness. She decides to wait a year and let Labour destroy itself while carrying on with Brexit. Running down the clock she already has set ticking actually might focus minds rather than getting a bigger majority: she doesn't doubt her own campaigning abilities at all.
For the next year, Labour's internal strife is even worse. Over the summer silly season, they fall to below twenty per cent in the polls. Conference season gives them a bounce but more arguments within combined with a hostile media see Labour fall to a poll rating averaging between 16 and 18 %. These are shocking numbers and demoralise many MPs. The Conservatives are on sixty per cent over the Xmas & New Year period. May has a Strong and Stable government. Corbyn has a party on the verge of seeing a real split occur now that moderates and progressives within see themselves and their careers cough their causes and voters cough doomed.
May waits for the right moment.
Chuka Umunna and his gang break away in February 2018. They form the Democrats, raging against Corbyn's 'support' for Brexit. Firstly six MPs, later joined by nine more by mid-March, represent this new party. Labour denounces them while the media swoon all over the Democrats and their oh-so-trendy/friendly politics.
March 19th sees May call for her snap election for early May. MPs vote the next day to allow that to happen despite not many wanting that: to not do so (as fourteen do) will bring allegations of running scared. Every party but the Conservatives - and the DUP and SF over in Ulster - fear the outcome for their party. Even the new Democrats fear a wipe-out as they have no local nor national base; they weren't expecting this election now.
Corbyn criss-crosses the country talking to jubilant crowds: he does what he did in 2015 and 2016. He gets his message out there and his polling soars. May makes mistakes and messes up while her poll numbers sink. Strong and Stable it isn't. The Democrats fight the Lib-Dems more than Labour or the Conservatives at first; the SNP worries over falling from its impossible 2015 perch. An important factor for May is attending the TV-debates and holding her ground while Corbyn goes after Chuka.
Post-debate polling sees May on 46%, Corbyn on 31%, Chuka on 15%, Farron on 6%.
The results for the May 4th 2018 general election:
Conservatives, 363 (based on 2015 election, not current standing; up 33)
Labour, 214 (down 18)
SNP, 31
Democrats, 10
DUP, 10
Liberal Democrats, 8
SF, 7
PC, 4
Greens, 1
Speaker, 1
Independents, 1
UKIP, 0
SDLP, 0
UUP, 0
May had increased her majority, making a net gain of thirty-three over the 2015 result which Cameron got. She had expected far more, even reaching 400 seats to give her that thumping majority the polls promised but first-past-the-post has its irregularities. All Hail Queen May: her party celebrate the victory she has won despite internal Brexit splits.
Corbyn had seen his party lose eighteen seats on Miliband's total from three years beforehand. Labour took five seats off its 'defectors / traitors' as well as taken a few Scottish seats back plus picked up a few surprises from the Conservatives. However, they'd lost ten to Chuka's gang and many marginals to the Conservatives. It could have been a lot worse.
The SNP lost heavily in terms of seats though not so much votes. 2015 was too high of a thing to live up to in so many close seats which the Conservatives and the Labour edged them back in.
Strong local performances in their own seats had kept ten Democrats in power. They could barely contain these, losing a third of them while doing so, and failed to really campaign nationally with not a single additional pick-up. May hadn't given them enough time to go after Labour properly; they wish she could have waited until 2020.
The Lib-Dems put on a terrible show and in terms of seats went nowhere. They lost one and gained one. Farron rages at the new Democrats for turning up late to the party and stealing his show but that wasn't what stuffed his party.
UKIP are out of the game, Plaid Cymru win an extra seat, the Greens keep their one seat and there is only one independent (from Ulster).
In Northern Ireland, the extremists with the DUP and Sinn Fein get rid of the moderates in the SDLP and UUP completely.
Once the new Parliament is in session, May carries on where she left off. She seeks to achieve a Brexit all within the next ten months. Easy, it won't be despite her beliefs on that matter. Corybn refuses to resign and his doyens blame Chuka and the Democrats for the defeat they took. He'll carry on as Labour leader with his mandate from the membership.
However, she wavers. Corbyn has just won two internal Labour elections on the bounce. There is a danger there he could do the impossible a pull off a third victory, this time taking the Commons. Madness that might seem but his victory in 2015 was madness. She decides to wait a year and let Labour destroy itself while carrying on with Brexit. Running down the clock she already has set ticking actually might focus minds rather than getting a bigger majority: she doesn't doubt her own campaigning abilities at all.
For the next year, Labour's internal strife is even worse. Over the summer silly season, they fall to below twenty per cent in the polls. Conference season gives them a bounce but more arguments within combined with a hostile media see Labour fall to a poll rating averaging between 16 and 18 %. These are shocking numbers and demoralise many MPs. The Conservatives are on sixty per cent over the Xmas & New Year period. May has a Strong and Stable government. Corbyn has a party on the verge of seeing a real split occur now that moderates and progressives within see themselves and their careers cough their causes and voters cough doomed.
May waits for the right moment.
Chuka Umunna and his gang break away in February 2018. They form the Democrats, raging against Corbyn's 'support' for Brexit. Firstly six MPs, later joined by nine more by mid-March, represent this new party. Labour denounces them while the media swoon all over the Democrats and their oh-so-trendy/friendly politics.
March 19th sees May call for her snap election for early May. MPs vote the next day to allow that to happen despite not many wanting that: to not do so (as fourteen do) will bring allegations of running scared. Every party but the Conservatives - and the DUP and SF over in Ulster - fear the outcome for their party. Even the new Democrats fear a wipe-out as they have no local nor national base; they weren't expecting this election now.
Corbyn criss-crosses the country talking to jubilant crowds: he does what he did in 2015 and 2016. He gets his message out there and his polling soars. May makes mistakes and messes up while her poll numbers sink. Strong and Stable it isn't. The Democrats fight the Lib-Dems more than Labour or the Conservatives at first; the SNP worries over falling from its impossible 2015 perch. An important factor for May is attending the TV-debates and holding her ground while Corbyn goes after Chuka.
Post-debate polling sees May on 46%, Corbyn on 31%, Chuka on 15%, Farron on 6%.
The results for the May 4th 2018 general election:
Conservatives, 363 (based on 2015 election, not current standing; up 33)
Labour, 214 (down 18)
SNP, 31
Democrats, 10
DUP, 10
Liberal Democrats, 8
SF, 7
PC, 4
Greens, 1
Speaker, 1
Independents, 1
UKIP, 0
SDLP, 0
UUP, 0
May had increased her majority, making a net gain of thirty-three over the 2015 result which Cameron got. She had expected far more, even reaching 400 seats to give her that thumping majority the polls promised but first-past-the-post has its irregularities. All Hail Queen May: her party celebrate the victory she has won despite internal Brexit splits.
Corbyn had seen his party lose eighteen seats on Miliband's total from three years beforehand. Labour took five seats off its 'defectors / traitors' as well as taken a few Scottish seats back plus picked up a few surprises from the Conservatives. However, they'd lost ten to Chuka's gang and many marginals to the Conservatives. It could have been a lot worse.
The SNP lost heavily in terms of seats though not so much votes. 2015 was too high of a thing to live up to in so many close seats which the Conservatives and the Labour edged them back in.
Strong local performances in their own seats had kept ten Democrats in power. They could barely contain these, losing a third of them while doing so, and failed to really campaign nationally with not a single additional pick-up. May hadn't given them enough time to go after Labour properly; they wish she could have waited until 2020.
The Lib-Dems put on a terrible show and in terms of seats went nowhere. They lost one and gained one. Farron rages at the new Democrats for turning up late to the party and stealing his show but that wasn't what stuffed his party.
UKIP are out of the game, Plaid Cymru win an extra seat, the Greens keep their one seat and there is only one independent (from Ulster).
In Northern Ireland, the extremists with the DUP and Sinn Fein get rid of the moderates in the SDLP and UUP completely.
Once the new Parliament is in session, May carries on where she left off. She seeks to achieve a Brexit all within the next ten months. Easy, it won't be despite her beliefs on that matter. Corybn refuses to resign and his doyens blame Chuka and the Democrats for the defeat they took. He'll carry on as Labour leader with his mandate from the membership.
