Post by eurofed on Oct 25, 2018 20:29:57 GMT
ITTL, Charlemagne was slightly more successful at expanding the borders of his domain throughout his reign, so northern Iberia (the Kingdom of Asturias, the northern portion of the Emirate of Cordoba) and most of southern Italy (the Principality of Benevento) were conquered and absorbed in the Carolingian Empire. After his death, instead of the Empire getting split according to the West-East axis that created West Francia, Middle Francia, and East Francia, ultimately evolving into France, Italy, and Germany, it was divided according to a North-South pattern. It was more or less the same way Charles the Great had planned in 806 when Charles the Younger, Peppin, and Louis were still alive, only adjusted for TTL expanded southern borders. The result was a Franco-German Kingdom that included northern France and northern Germany (Austrasia, Neustria, Saxony, Burgundy, Thuringia); an Occitan-Iberian Kingdom that included southern France and northern Iberia (Aquitaine, Asturias, the Spanish March, and Provence); and an Austro-Italian Kingdom that included southern Germany and Italy (Bavaria, Swabia, Italy). This division may occur after Charlemagne's death because all three of his sons remained alive and had issue, or after Louis the Pious like OTL as his sons fought among themselves for the inheritance. In this case, however, they adopted a different partition scheme in the Treaty of Verdun equivalent.
In any case, these three kingdoms successfully resisted external threats (Norse, Arabs, Slavs, Avars, Magyars, etc.) and feudal disintegration, and evolved into functional centralized monarchies. They more or less followed the same evolution path as OTL France, England, and Spain, and none of them ever suffered the political degeneration and fragmentation of OTL HRE, Germany, and Italy. They harnessed their resources to gradually expand across the continent. France-Germany conquered and assimilated most of Central Europe, including eastern Germany, Bohemia-Moravia, and Poland. Aquitaine-Iberia brought the Reconquista to a successful conclusion, and all but surely expanded it into North Africa, esp. Morocco and Algeria. Austria-Italy grabbed the missing pieces of southern Italy (Sicily, Calabria, Puglia) ousting the Arabs and Byzantines, in all likelihood engaged in its own conquest drive of North Africa, esp. concerning Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, and assimilated a large chunk of southeastern Europe, including Hungary, Transylvania, Croatia, and Bosnia. Therefore, ITTL many European nations never existed and North Africa did not stay Arab/Muslim. It is anyone's guess if Aquitaine-Iberia or Austria-Italy are going to assimilate Corsica and Sardinia, but these islands shall not stay independent. It also seems extremely likely at some point France-Germany is going to become seriously interested in controlling England because of its economic and strategic value and pull a William the Conqueror. The English shall not realistically able to resist conquest and assimilation, since it is in all likelihood going to happen well before they have any chance of developing naval supremacy. It is much more questionable if the Franco-Germans would ever be interested enough to own Scandinavia and the rest of the British Isles to make the necessary conquest effort, although they would in all likelihood at least try to vassallize them and strive for full control of the Danish Straits and Baltic trade.
The Carolingian successor states shall become the groundwork for successful European nation-states. France-Germany in all likelihood is going to adopt some variant of Frankish as its national language. Much the same way, Aquitaine-Iberia all but surely shall developed some variant of Occitan as its national language. Austria-Italy is kind of balanced between Southern German and Italian cultural influences so I am not sure what is going to be used as national language in the end. I am also not sure which kingdom is going to hold the Imperial title, although the most likely candidates seem France-Germany, because of its superior power, and Austria-Italy, because of its control of Rome. ITTL, the ambitions of the Church for political independence and theocratic dominance are going to get crushed (say the Gregorian Reform gets strangled in the cradle), so the Papacy shall never become a serious obstacle to secular centralization and control of Italy. TTL TTL Carolingian successor states do have well-defined and sustainable geopolitical identities and pleny of resources to be successful, but their potential strength is not the same, and they lack effective natural borders, so their ultimate fate may vary.
France-Germany is obviously much superior to any other European state but a strong Russia or a very strong Byzantine/Ottoman Empire in terms of strategic, demographic, and economic resources, even more so when internal development and technological progress shall make it the dominant trade hub and later the industrial giant of Europe, and it is very well-placed to be the European hegemon. If OTL drives are anything to go by, it is going to become quite interested in owning Occitania and Southern Germany for obvious strategic and economic reasons, and Italy because of its wealth and Imperial prestige. It seems very likely the Franco-German empire would be quite hard to stop in its drive to reunify most or all of the original core of the Carolingian Empire, and historically the Alps have not been much effective as a barrier against a strong French or German conqueror/hegemon. They may or may not extend their expansionist drive to Iberia as well, or be content to leave it alone, but it is valuble enough they would at least try to vassallize it. If the Franco-German state does succeed in its drive to reunify France, Germany, and Italy, it is obviously going to claim Imperial dignity and its status as the legitimate successor of the Roman Empire and rightful ruler of the Western Christian world like the Ottonian founders of the HRE did. Their claim would basically be indisputable if they control Rome and all of Charlemagne's domain, and lack a rival of similar strength (like France was for the HRE). It would be a bit more controversial but still quite justifiable and hardly questionable in practical terms if they 'just' own England, France, and Germany.
In any case, these three kingdoms successfully resisted external threats (Norse, Arabs, Slavs, Avars, Magyars, etc.) and feudal disintegration, and evolved into functional centralized monarchies. They more or less followed the same evolution path as OTL France, England, and Spain, and none of them ever suffered the political degeneration and fragmentation of OTL HRE, Germany, and Italy. They harnessed their resources to gradually expand across the continent. France-Germany conquered and assimilated most of Central Europe, including eastern Germany, Bohemia-Moravia, and Poland. Aquitaine-Iberia brought the Reconquista to a successful conclusion, and all but surely expanded it into North Africa, esp. Morocco and Algeria. Austria-Italy grabbed the missing pieces of southern Italy (Sicily, Calabria, Puglia) ousting the Arabs and Byzantines, in all likelihood engaged in its own conquest drive of North Africa, esp. concerning Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, and assimilated a large chunk of southeastern Europe, including Hungary, Transylvania, Croatia, and Bosnia. Therefore, ITTL many European nations never existed and North Africa did not stay Arab/Muslim. It is anyone's guess if Aquitaine-Iberia or Austria-Italy are going to assimilate Corsica and Sardinia, but these islands shall not stay independent. It also seems extremely likely at some point France-Germany is going to become seriously interested in controlling England because of its economic and strategic value and pull a William the Conqueror. The English shall not realistically able to resist conquest and assimilation, since it is in all likelihood going to happen well before they have any chance of developing naval supremacy. It is much more questionable if the Franco-Germans would ever be interested enough to own Scandinavia and the rest of the British Isles to make the necessary conquest effort, although they would in all likelihood at least try to vassallize them and strive for full control of the Danish Straits and Baltic trade.
The Carolingian successor states shall become the groundwork for successful European nation-states. France-Germany in all likelihood is going to adopt some variant of Frankish as its national language. Much the same way, Aquitaine-Iberia all but surely shall developed some variant of Occitan as its national language. Austria-Italy is kind of balanced between Southern German and Italian cultural influences so I am not sure what is going to be used as national language in the end. I am also not sure which kingdom is going to hold the Imperial title, although the most likely candidates seem France-Germany, because of its superior power, and Austria-Italy, because of its control of Rome. ITTL, the ambitions of the Church for political independence and theocratic dominance are going to get crushed (say the Gregorian Reform gets strangled in the cradle), so the Papacy shall never become a serious obstacle to secular centralization and control of Italy. TTL TTL Carolingian successor states do have well-defined and sustainable geopolitical identities and pleny of resources to be successful, but their potential strength is not the same, and they lack effective natural borders, so their ultimate fate may vary.
France-Germany is obviously much superior to any other European state but a strong Russia or a very strong Byzantine/Ottoman Empire in terms of strategic, demographic, and economic resources, even more so when internal development and technological progress shall make it the dominant trade hub and later the industrial giant of Europe, and it is very well-placed to be the European hegemon. If OTL drives are anything to go by, it is going to become quite interested in owning Occitania and Southern Germany for obvious strategic and economic reasons, and Italy because of its wealth and Imperial prestige. It seems very likely the Franco-German empire would be quite hard to stop in its drive to reunify most or all of the original core of the Carolingian Empire, and historically the Alps have not been much effective as a barrier against a strong French or German conqueror/hegemon. They may or may not extend their expansionist drive to Iberia as well, or be content to leave it alone, but it is valuble enough they would at least try to vassallize it. If the Franco-German state does succeed in its drive to reunify France, Germany, and Italy, it is obviously going to claim Imperial dignity and its status as the legitimate successor of the Roman Empire and rightful ruler of the Western Christian world like the Ottonian founders of the HRE did. Their claim would basically be indisputable if they control Rome and all of Charlemagne's domain, and lack a rival of similar strength (like France was for the HRE). It would be a bit more controversial but still quite justifiable and hardly questionable in practical terms if they 'just' own England, France, and Germany.
