eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 2, 2018 13:38:51 GMT
The main idea of this scenario is explore the course of 19th century European and world events in a TL where the 1840s liberal-national revolutions were largely successful, up to and including the occurrence of a semi-recognizable World War equivalent in the mid-late 19th century. A few elements in this TL show similarities with events in my other “A different 1860s” TL, mostly because the involved political and strategic analogies seemed too compelling.
The divergence occurred in the early 19th century but the first significant effects became noticeable in the early 1830s. The Belgian Revolution did not ensue in the establishment of Belgium as an independent neutral state but caused the partition of the Southern Netherlands between the Netherlands (West Flanders, East Flanders, Antwerp, and Limburg), France (Hainaut, Brabant, Namur, and western Liege), and Prussia (eastern Liege and Luxemburg). The November Uprising in Poland did not occur; it happened later as part of the Spring of Nations.
The 1848-49 revolutions were successful in most of Europe, most notably including a decisive victory of the liberal-national movement in Germany, Italy, and the Habsburg Empire. The revolutionary wave toppled all the reactionary monarchs and aristocratic elites from power and put bourgeois and middle-class liberals in their place that variously allied with the reformist wing of the old elites and/or radical democrats. Depending on political circumstances, revolution caused a transition to a republican regime or put a new generation of monarchs on the throne who shared liberal and national ideals or at least were foresighted opportunists. The latter kind were usually willing to accept liberal constitutionalism and cooperate with the national movement for practical reasons.
The most important examples of this monarchist 'new wave' occurred in Prussia and Sardinia-Piedmont where revolution caused young princes Frederick of Hohenzollern and Victor Emmanuel of Savoy to take the throne when their predecessors panicked and abdicated. ITTL Frederick was born a few years earlier and hence of age to take the throne during the revolution since his father had been able to marry Eliza Radzwilli. The new kings made their states align with liberal policies and take the lead of the national movements in Germany and Italy respectively, providing them a decisive amount of political and military support for their ultimate success. As a result, Germany and Italy unified as federal unions based on liberal constitutionalism and a political compromise between the reformist wing of the old elites, middle-class liberals, and republican democrats.
In other cases, the reactionary monarchs and the conservative elites panicked and attempted repression but bungled it, paving the way to the ultimate success of the liberal-national revolutionaries and the powers that supported them. The Habsburg Empire was a typical case of this failure, as it proved unable to make a compromise with revolution or suppress it. Consequently, it collapsed under the combined political and military assault of the German, Italian, and Hungarian revolutionaries supported by Prussia and Sardinia-Piedmont. Hungary seized independence as a liberal state with most of its traditional lands. The dominant Magyar nationality was able to suppress the hostility of the other minorities that made separatist bids of their own or had opportunistically supported the Habsburg. As a pacification measure, the Hungarians agreed to concede devolution to the Croats, while the Slovaks and the Romanians got administrative autonomy and cultural rights.
Germany and Italy seized various Habsburg lands as part of their unifications, and Russia opportunistically picked up the rest. Germany got Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, Carniola, South Tyrol, Burgenland, and Fiume. Italy took Lombardy, Venice, Trent, the Austrian Littoral, and most of coastal Dalmatia and the Adriatic islands. Hungary kept most of its traditional territories. Russia got Galicia and Bukovina. Out of a combination of ideological solidarity, practical opportunism, and a wish to get allies, the new leaders of Germany, Italy, and Hungary found this territorial settlement an acceptable compromise and an adequate satisfaction of their national ambitions and strategic interests. Thanks to their superior numbers, organization, and resources the Germans, Italians, and Hungarians were able to force the other nationalities in the lands they claimed to accept a political merger. However, as a rule the liberal and federal character of the new states gave minorities enough opportunities for autonomy to make the new settlement acceptable for them in the long term. At the very least, they thought it was a lesser evil than the likely alternative of Russian or Ottoman domination.
ITTL civil war in Switzerland turned into a success of the Sonderbund conservatives due to the intervention of Prussian and Austrian forces before revolution swept the German states themselves. This left the Swiss Confederation trapped into an outdated status quo and lingering revolutionary instability that prevented its rebirth as a modern federal state and instead favored its political decay. France experienced a republican revolution, then a series of political clashes between conservatives and radicals, and eventually a Bonapartist takeover. The French intervened in the German, Italian, and Swiss revolutions to affirm their irredentist claims and ‘natural borders’ expansionist ambitions on the territories of their neighbors. An additional motive was to try to restore the temporal power of the Popes, which the Italian revolutionaries had overthrown. The resulting conflict ended into a draw and a territorial compromise settled it. France annexed eastern Liege, French-speaking Luxemburg, and Savoy, and recognized the new status quo of Germany and Italy. The Germans and the Italians kept German-speaking Luxemburg, the Rhineland, Nice, and Aosta. The French failed in their attempt to invade Italy and restore the Papal States.
Since revolution had destabilized the Swiss Confederation and the neighbor powers were interested in its territories to complete their national unifications, a partition of Switzerland occurred: France got Romandy, Italy took Ticino and Grisons, and Germany annexed northern and central Switzerland. The Pope reluctantly accepted to transfer the Holy See to the Principality of Andorra, taking over its administration with the assent of the great powers. All three powers deemed the outcome of the war unsatisfactory for various reasons, and the grievances between France and its eastern neighbors remained not truly settled. However all three states were in serious need of political stabilization after their revolutionary upheavals, and the Germans and the Italians needed to do some nation building to cement their unification processes. Therefore, they accepted the compromise settlement for the moment.
Russia experienced extensive revolutionary uprisings in its Polish and Finnish territories, and the Danubian Principalities, which it deemed part of its sphere of interest. Revolution also spread to the lands of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Baltic, and Bessarabia. With some serious effort, the Russians were ultimately able to suppress these rebellions. However, unrest within their own sphere of influence left them unable to intervene in the rest of Europe during the revolutionary period. Once the Russians had restored order at home, the new status quo had stabilized enough to make large-scale intervention in Europe politically and militarily unfeasible. They had to make themselves content with annexing the Danubian Principalities and Austrian Poland. These gains worked as an important consolation prize for their imperialist ambitions; they were also useful to prevent the rise of hostile nationalist havens for the Poles and the Romanians.
Russia crushed Ottoman opposition to its takeover of Wallachia and Moldavia in a quick war. The demise of the Habsburg Empire created favorable conditions for Russian expansionism in the Balkans, since Germany, Italy, and Hungary were too busy with their own problems to care. Russian expansionism however created serious alarm in Britain and France, and there was some serious sympathy for the Polish and Romanian causes among the new liberal powers in the face of brutal Tsarist repression.
Conflicting national claims of the Danes and the Germans on Schleswig-Holstein led to a war between Germany and Denmark, with Sweden backing the Danes. The Germans won the conflict, and annexed Holstein and central-southern Schleswig. As a conciliatory measure, however, they allowed Denmark to keep northern Schleswig, a compromise both nations found satisfactory in the long term. The political backlash of the conflict, the political atmosphere created by the European revolutionary wave, and the experience of brotherly cooperation between the Nordic nations during the Schleswig-Holstein conflict paved the way to liberal revolutions in Denmark and Sweden and the unification of Scandinavia as a federal union of Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Iceland.
In the Western Hemisphere, the USA continued its vigorous growth. Virginia approved gradual abolition of slavery. Its example triggered an imitation wave across the Mid-Atlantic and Upper South slave states: Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Missouri, and Arkansas gradually implemented similar measures. Most abolitionists meant to dispose of the freed Blacks by sending them to colonize West Africa, so private and government support for the efforts of the American Colonization Society massively increased. Most other slave-owners sold their slaves further south. A short-term effect of the process was to increase the expansionist attitudes of the shrinking slave section in an effort to compensate for its diminishing political influence. To a good extent and for a while, the rest of the Union mostly went along with the expansion program for various reasons, including a wish to appease the slave section, perceived economic benefits from territorial acquisitions, and popularity of Manifest Destiny beliefs.
The breakaway states of Texas, Rio Grande (including the Mexican states of Coahuila, Neuvo Leon, and Tamaulipas), and California won their independence from Mexico with American support and joined the USA. This triggered a war with Mexico that the USA won, allowing its annexation of the Southwest, California, and Northern Mexico up to the Tropic of Cancer. In a similar way, the USA supported the secession of the Dominican Republic from Haiti, which allowed its union with the American republic. Groups of Southern filibusters also tried to take over Cuba and Nicaragua with the aim to merge them with the USA as slave states. Their efforts in Central America were successful when the filibusters took over Nicaragua and defeated a coalition of the other Central American states, allowing their seizure and annexation of Costa Rica. The filibusters’ attempts to take over Cuba and liberate it from Spanish rule instead failed, but Spanish heavy-handed repression of the uprising caused a war between Spain and the USA. America won the conflict and annexed Cuba and Puerto Rico. Texas, Rio Grande, Cuba, Quisqueya (OTL Dominican Republic), Puerto Rico, and Nicaragua (including Costa Rica) joined the Union as slave states.
In the end, however, territorial expansion in the Caribbean and Central Africa could not really redress the declining fortunes of American slavery. California became a free state; the Southwest territories proved poorly suited to plantation economy; and free-soil settlers were out-competing and displacing slave-owning ones across the rest of the Western territories that increasingly queued to join the Union as free states. Southern slave-owners increasingly felt boxed in and marginalized, and turned to support secession. The conflict exploded in civil war when election of a President opposed to expansion of slavery in the territories drove twelve Deep South, Caribbean, and Central American slave states (South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Rio Grande, Cuba, Quisqueya, Puerto Rico, and Nicaragua) to secede and set up a new Confederation dedicated to preservation of slavery.
The three-year conflict initially seemed locked into an apparent strategic stalemate due to early Confederate victories. Over time, however, the much superior demographic, economic, and technological potential of the North emerged and displayed its full effects; the resulting pressure proved irresistible for the Confederacy. The conflict ended with victory of the Union, military occupation of the defeated rebel states, and abolition of slavery. The defeated Southerners however were able to bargain a reconstruction program of rehabilitation and reintegration of the rebel states, gradual abolition of slavery, compensation for slave-owners, and large-scale resettlement of former slaves back to Africa. Over the next few decades, the USA transferred the vast majority of its Black population to West Africa under the Liberia program.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 2, 2018 13:40:12 GMT
Peaceful transition to liberal constitutionalism occurred in the Netherlands, while Britain remained immune to the revolutionary wave since it had enacted several important liberal reforms during the last two decades. The British regarded the victory of liberalism on the continent with sympathy, and deemed the unification of Germany, Italy, and Scandinavia a useful counterbalance to the power of France and Russia. However, they disliked Russian expansionism in the Balkans and the Middle East, since they deemed it a serious potential threat to their own imperial interests in India. Therefore, when renewed controversy between Russia and the Ottoman Empire about the right of Christian minorities led to a new Russo-Turkish war, Britain intervened to oppose the Russians and convinced France to join them. Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Scandinavia gradually joined the anti-Russian coalition to affirm their own interests in Eastern Europe. The war ended in a decisive Russian defeat and the peace settlement largely forced Russia back within its pre-Napoleonic western borders.
Scandinavia annexed Finland and the United Baltic Duchy of Latvia-Estonia as new member states of its federal union. Poland became independent with Congress Poland, Podlachia, Galicia, and Lithuania. Hungary formed a confederation with the Romanian territories of Bessarabia, Bukovina, Moldavia, and Wallachia. German support for the restoration of Polish independence did a lot to ensure friendly relations between the Germans and the Poles. The subsequent agreement to partition the Province of Posen largely settled the remaining grievances between the two nations. Much the same way, the experience of brutal Russian rule made the Romanians much more agreeable to accept a political union with liberal Hungary, especially once Moldavia and Wallachia got confederal autonomy.
The union with Romania paved the way to a general federal reform of the Hungarian state: the Croats got pretty much the same kind of autonomy as the Danubian Romanians, while the Slovaks and the Transylvanian Romanians got devolution and a confirmation of their cultural rights. Ethnic Germans got an autonomous principality of their own in Transdanubia, the Banat, and Transylvania. This settlement was far from perfect - recurrent haggling and bickering between its component nationalities about the political and administrative status of certain territories became a proverbial feature of the Hungarian state. However, it went a good way to ensure the union was significantly more stable and functional than the Habsburg Empire would have been in the same circumstances.
Over time, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Hungary formed a remarkably stable political, economic, and military bloc, commonly known as Mitteleuropa, the Central Powers, or the Quadruple Alliance. Its features included a common liberal character, compatible and often complementary strategic interests, a defensive military alliance, and a customs and monetary union. The Central European Economic and Monetary Union established a bimetallic (gold and silver) standard. It required that all contracting states strike freely exchangeable gold coins and silver coins according to common specifications. The economic union between the Mitteleuropa countries fostered their vigorous industrialization and economic development since the middle 19th century.
Unification allowed the vast economic potential of Germany to bloom and the country evolved into the industrial giant of Europe. Much the same way if on a lesser scale, united Italy transformed into an industrialized great power. The Italians reaped the fruits of economic reforms and foreign investments with steady growth of industry in the northern regions and modern agriculture and tourism in the southern ones. The government decided to set up a public school system modeled on the German system and make strong investments to boost literacy and spread knowledge of national language among the Italian citizens. The process also considerably improved the socio-economic status of Poland and Hungary and their governments took similar measures to combat illiteracy. Only the parallel ongoing transformation of the United States into an economic superpower surpassed the frantic pace of industrialization and socio-economic development in the Mitteleuropa bloc. A series of foresighted military reforms turned the German army into the most powerful and efficient European military, and the Italians closely imitated the German model, bringing their own army to a similar level of efficiency.
Defeat pushed Russia into a comprehensive program of political, socio-economic, and military reforms. It considerably modernized Russia and substantially increased its strength. However, it did not eliminate the basic authoritarian character of the Russian state and the gap with Western and Central Europe did not entirely disappear.
Resurgent tensions between France, Germany, and Italy exploded into war. The Netherlands joined the conflict since the Dutch felt threatened by French expansionist ambitions on the Flanders. To secure their eastern flank, the Poles and the Hungarians went on a war footing but only provided a limited amount of help to their allies. For the same reason, the Germans and the Italians made a deal with Russia to guarantee its friendly neutrality in exchange for CP support of Russian expansion in the Ottoman Balkans. Britain stayed neutral since it distrusted French expansionist ambitions in the Low Countries and the Rhineland. Against the expectations of many observers, the CP alliance achieved a decisive victory against the French. The German and Italian armies secured an impressive sequence of victories against the French ones, and overrun northern and eastern France.
The French stubbornly refused to acknowledge defeat for a good while, but eventually had to beg for peace after Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles fell to siege. A French civil war between far-leftist revolutionaries and a victorious coalition of conservatives and moderate republicans complicated the situation for a while but after its end, a peace treaty became possible. By its terms, Germany annexed Alsace, half of Lorraine, and northern Romandy; Italy got Savoy, southern Romandy, Corsica, and a border correction in the Alps. The Netherlands took Hainaut and the French Flanders. France had to pay a large war indemnity, and recognize Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya as belonging in the German-Italian spheres of influence. France eventually recovered a semblance of order as a weak republic, but remained plagued by political instability and after a few years it experienced a conservative Bourbon restoration.
Attempts to provide political autonomy and a responsible government to the British North American settler colonies and merge them in an autonomous confederation broke down due to resistance from the oligarchic cliques that controlled the governments of Upper Canada and Lower Canada and contrasts between the colonies. The British put down uprisings from frustrated radicals in the Canadian colonies without excessive effort and this success ultimately encouraged them to maintain the status quo. The situation prevented any real progress towards reform and fostered an atmosphere of frustration and discontent in the Canadian colonies. This gradually drove a sizable portion of the Canadians to develop pro-US and republican sympathies, despite the Loyalist heritage of the English-speaking population and religious and cultural differences between the Franco-Canadians and the Americans.
Groups of Canadian republicans and irredentist Irish expatriates (the Fenians) organized in US territory and started to launch raids into Canada, with the intent to liberate it from British rule or to use it as a bargaining chip to force Britain to give Ireland independence. The Canadian rebels and the Fenians initially reaped some serious successes, throwing the Canadian militias into disarray and overrunning large areas of Canada along the US-Canadian border. They got a serious amount of support from the Canadian settlers that were unhappy with British colonial rule and had developed pro-US and republican sympathies. The British government started deploying troops in Canada, allowing the British to recover the lost areas and defeat most of the rebel and Fenian forces, although they were unable to suppress them entirely. The situation caused tensions between Britain and America to increase considerably: the British largely blamed the USA for the raids and general unrest in Canada, while the Americans harbored widespread sympathy for the rebels and regarded British imperial power in North America with much antipathy.
Russia started to reap dividends from its pact with the CP by supporting the agitation against Ottoman rule of Balkan and Middle Eastern nationalities and Christian communities. The tense situation exploded in several uprisings backed by the intervention of de facto autonomous Serbia and Greece. The Ottoman forces did various well-publicized atrocities to repress them that antagonized European public opinion. Russia declared war to Turkey with protection of persecuted Christians as their casus belli. Russian intervention turned the tide of the conflict as the Russian forces gradually pushed the Ottomans out of the Balkans, overrun eastern Anatolia, and besieged Constantinople. Being true to their deal, the Central Powers supported the Russian offensive by giving it free passage towards the Balkans through their territory. They exploited the opportunity to occupy various Balkan and North African territories they wished to acquire, including Bosnia, Albania, Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya.
Success drove the Russians to increase their gains by expanding the conflict to Persia. The Persians soon suffered the same kind of decisive defeat as the Ottomans and the Russian forces overrun northwestern Iran. Eventually the situation came to a head as the Russian forces conquered Constantinople and Teheran, and reached northern Syria and Mesopotamia. The Turkish and Persian military collapse triggered a chaotic collapse of Ottoman rule and authority across the Middle East.
Britain and France intervened in the conflict to limit Russian gains when their warnings went unheeded. Alliance with France gave Britain confidence to force a decision on the battlefield but turned disastrous since it drove Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands to join the conflict and form an alliance of convenience with Russia. Poland and Hungary mobilized as well to support their allies but initially took a limited role in the conflict against France and Britain, since they remained suspicious of Russia and they were distant from most theaters of the war. The Hungarians, however, took a significant role in the occupation and defense of the Balkans since they had an important stake of their own in the settlement of the region.
The French were very eager for a “revanche” against the Central Powers with British help but their country was still recovering from the recent upheavals of a disastrous defeat, enemy occupation, civil war, and regime change. France was in no real shape yet to fight a general war, even with British assistance. To improve the chances of their coalition, the British and the French persuaded Spain to join the conflict on their side, with the promise of various colonial gains and economic rewards. Portugal, too, joined the Western coalition due to its status as a client state of Britain. In the end, however, this proved far from sufficient since France was not truly fit to match German-Italian power even with British and Spanish assistance and the Western coalition had to fight on multiple fronts. Moreover, Spain’s contribution to the war effort was questionable due to its chronic political instability and backwardness, and further trouble arose in North America.
American public opinion had taken an anti-British stance due to events in Canada. Once the war in Europe started this much worsened once the Anglo-French enacted a blockade of the Eastern powers and US trade considerably suffered as a result. History rhymed as the situation of 1812 repeated and the USA declared war to Britain, France, and Spain. The British scrambled to redeploy a sizable portion of their military power to North America and felt the bite of overextension on multiple fronts. However, they still expected a relatively quick and easy victory against the ‘colonials’ since they underestimated US power and neglected the military value of ACW experience. The Americans rose in patriotic mobilization against the overbearing British Empire and its allies; they engaged in a massive effort to rebuild the vast army they had created to fight the civil war. Some lingering exhaustion from the ACW existed, but it was not a serious problem thanks to the relatively quick end of that conflict and the success of Reconstruction.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 2, 2018 13:41:07 GMT
It was a very nasty surprise for Britain and its allies when the well-experienced and well-equipped US army overwhelmed the British troops already stationed in Canada and poor-quality Canadian militias with the help of resurgent Canadian rebels and Fenian irregulars. The US forces conquered Western Canada, Southern Ontario, New Brunswick, and the southern bank of the St. Lawrence River valley. The Royal Navy kept the upper hand on the high seas and it finished sweeping away American merchant shipping from them. This however made not much of a difference since American trade had already suffered greatly from the Anglo-French blockade and it had been a big part of the casus belli for the USA. However, the US Navy won enough engagements in its home waters to prevent a British blockade of coastal shipping. It avoided large-scale battles with the British and French navies but geared up for defense of US coasts and raiding on Anglo-French merchant shipping.
Against Anglo-French expectations and attempts to stir up trouble, the defeated Southern states mostly remained quiet and cooperated with the US war effort. The Union was able to keep control of the region with a fraction of its military power. Most Southerners were simply too demoralized by defeat to rise up again, too content about the course of Reconstruction, or too compelled by their American identity to side with foreign enemies. Actually, a large number of Southerners fought for the Union against the British. The war saw Northerners and Southerners fighting against a common foe, helping to ease the scars left from the civil war and pave the way to national reconciliation.
Since they faced an unexpectedly good US military performance, the Western powers sought to lure the other North American states in the conflict as their allies. They expected they could use Mexico, Haiti, and the Central American states as proxies and allies in the Caribbean theater to harry and distract the USA; they also hoped an invasion from the south would exhaust the Americans with a two-front war and stir up the Southern states into renewed rebellion. British and French bribes, diplomatic influence, and promises of territorial and economic compensations soon organized a pro-Western realignment of the governments of Mexico, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, and these states joined the Western coalition. Their armies supported by Western expeditionary corps overrun and occupied Quisqueya, Puerto Rico, and most of the Northern Mexican US territories.
However, the Americans again reacted much quicker and more effectively to the new threat than their enemies expected and made good use of their efficient military organization and highly developed infrastructure. They organized and deployed new armies in the West Coast, the Trans-Mississippi, and the Caribbean that ensured a successful defense of California, the Pacific Northwest, Texas, Rio Grande, and Cuba. Timely completion of the first transcontinental railroad greatly helped successful US defense of the West Coast. Subsequently, US counteroffensives regained control of Sonora and Chihuahua and drove into the other US North Mexican territories. Anglo-French attempts to land in the Southern mainland turned into abysmal failures.
For a while, the Western coalition stood its ground on the Western front but eventually the well-armed and well-trained German and Italian forces started to gain a decisive upper hand. They crushed and swept away the ill-prepared French and Spanish armies and advanced deep into France. The British expeditionary corps was unable to stop them, even more so once they had to redeploy a sizable portion in North America. In the Middle East, the Anglo-French-Spanish forces landed in and occupied the Levant, Mesopotamia, Arabia, and southern Persia. However, they completely failed to dislodge the Russians from the areas of Anatolia and Persia they had conquered. Thanks to the military collapse of the Turks and the Persians, the Russians were able to overrun most of Anatolia and Persia without excessive trouble, except for a few coastal areas occupied by the Western forces. Much the same way, military cooperation between the CP and Russia made the Balkans unapproachable for the Western coalition.
In Central Asia, logistic limitations prevented the British and the Russians from any successful strategic offensive deep into the other side's territory. Therefore, military activity in this theater ended up being limited to the exchange of a few clumsy strikes across the Afghan territory. Despite a stubborn and desperate French resistance and the British and Spanish efforts to help, the German and Italian forces supported by the Dutch army gradually conquered northern and eastern France. Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles fell, triggering the downfall of the Bourbon regime and a military collapse of France that allowed the invaders to overrun the rest of the country. A provisional government took over and reluctantly begged for an armistice with the Eastern powers. The advancing Eastern armies occupied France and pushed the British and the Spanish on the other side of the Pyrenees.
In North America, the USA remained victorious on land, and its troops seized control of northern Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia. They also reconquered Quisqueya and the rest of US Northern Mexico and drove deep into Haiti and Mexico. Renewed strategic offensive allowed the Eastern forces to break through the Pyrenees and invade the Iberian Peninsula. With the declining military fortunes of the Western coalition, the war became increasingly unpopular among the Spanish population. After the Eastern forces invaded northern Iberia, Spanish resistance largely collapsed and the Eastern forces swarmed through the Iberian Peninsula. A coup brought down the Bourbon dynasty and set up a provisional government. The Spanish revolutionaries negotiated an alliance switch with the Eastern powers, and the Spanish joined hands with the Eastern forces to occupy Portugal. The British could only reap a consolation prize by occupying the Azores and the Canary Islands.
On the seas, the Western coalition kept the upper hand for most of the war thanks to its superior naval power but suffered a serious degree of overextension that diminished its overall effectiveness, especially after America joined the conflict. As a result, the Eastern powers and the USA were usually able to defend their coasts effectively. Western attempts to land into enemy territory typically reaped meager military benefits, such as the occupation of Corsica and Sardinia, or turned into costly failures, such as the botched attempts to invade the Low Countries, Northern Germany, Sicily, and Naples. The economic effects of the blockade were sometimes painful but ultimately bearable for the Eastern powers and America thanks to their ability to trade by interior lines. After France and Spain fell and the Eastern powers were able to seize control of their navies, and the global naval balance shifted closer to strategic parity on the high seas and American-Eastern superiority in the areas close to the North American and European coasts. The cumulative effects of ongoing American, German, Italian, and Russian naval build-up also played a role in redressing the strategic balance.
The CP-Russian alliance and the USA developed a steel-hard grip on continental Europe, North America, and the Near East, which was entirely beyond the ability of Britain alone to uproot or challenge. Thanks to their ongoing naval build-up and the seizure of French and Spanish naval assets, the Eastern-American coalition got closer and closer to establish a clear dominance of their home waters, including the Baltic, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, the North American coast, and the Gulf of Mexico. Effects of this shifting balance of forces included successful US conquest of Newfoundland and enemy holdings in the Greater Antilles. The US forces also liberated Nicaragua, occupied Haiti, and conquered large chunks of Mexico and the enemy Central American states, forcing them to surrender. In the Mediterranean, Gibraltar, Malta, Corsica, and Sardinia fell to Eastern offensives. The Eastern forces gradually drove enemy forces out of the Aegean Islands, Cyprus, coastal Anatolia, southern Persia, the Levant, and Mesopotamia.
As the Eastern-American coalition came nearer to victory, Hungary and Poland decided to take a more active role in the war by sending expeditionary corps to assist their allies. Strategic cooperation also improved between the Eastern allies as a whole, with a Russian expeditionary corps seeing action on the Western front and German-Italian forces deploying to assist the Russians in the Eastern Med. Distance prevented most meaningful strategic cooperation between America and the Eastern powers, except to a limited degree in the naval field. The botched Western attempt to invade Northern Germany ended up threatening the Jutland as well and causing a naval battle with the Nordic navy. This motivated Scandinavia to join the Eastern coalition. The Nordics also decided to intervene because they realized the Western coalition was likely going to lose and they thought it would be better for them to side with the victors.
The British kept enough naval power to secure their supply lines for the British Isles, India, and Australasia, and remain able to trade with their Empire and neutral South America, However, American and Eastern raiding of their merchant shipping was a serious problem that the Royal Navy was unable to suppress. More importantly, in the long term their strategic and economic situation looked bleak and even the mighty British Empire could not afford to fight alone the rest of the developed world for long. All their allies had fallen; Europe, North America, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East were lost to them and loss of trade with these areas was dealing increasingly severe damage to British economy, which was only going to get worse as the war continued.
There were widespread concerns the military situation could drove Ireland and India to rebellion, the Eastern powers and the USA would eventually harness the resources of Europe and North America to invade the British Isles and India, or the enemy powers could build enough naval assets of their own to overwhelm the Royal Navy. To be fair, India remained quiet since the failure of the Indian Rebellion, but the Irish nationalists, poorly organized as they were, were indeed trying to stir up major trouble in the Emerald Island with the help of the Eastern powers and the USA. Even the South American countries proved increasingly willing to listen to the demands of the Eastern powers and the USA to cut off trade with Britain after the fall of France, Spain, and Mexico. In the end, the British had to swallow their pride, accept the inevitable, and beg for peace. Their military situation remained just good enough to avoid a surrender, but not a seriously unfavorable peace.
A peace conference met in Stockholm to redraw the map of the world. The war made the Germans eager to consolidate their strategic and economic control of Northern Europe. Moreover, the vast success of German unification had gradually caused German nationalism to take a wider Pan-Germanic dimension. It had shifted to advocate the creation of a political union of the Germanic peoples of Europe under the leadership of Germany. Victory created favorable conditions to realize this project and the Germans pressured the Netherlands and Scandinavia to form a confederal union. Several Dutch and Nordics became open-minded to the project because of economic and cultural ties with the Germans, the vast success and prestige of Germany, wartime collaboration with the CP, and the perceived threat of Britain, France, and Russia. Others were more reluctant because of their concerns about national identity and independence, but even most of them realized union was inevitable if victorious Germany demanded it. Germany, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia formed a confederation, the Germanic Union, which managed such issues as defense, foreign relations, trade, and currency, while member nations kept autonomy in most domestic matters.
Much the same way, Italy wished to improve its strategic and economic standing by expanding its control of the Mediterranean lands. The remarkable successes of united Italy drove the Italian nationalists to celebrate their Roman past and advocate the creation of a modern equivalent of the Roman Empire in the Mediterranean. Therefore, after the war Italy supported Spain’s annexation of Portugal to re-establish the Iberian Union and pressured the Spanish to form a confederation with Italy. Defeat heightened awareness in many Spanish and Portuguese of the drastic decline of their nations in the modern age, while the remarkable successes of Italy after unification and its rebirth as a great power made them inclined to take it as a model. Political and cultural affinities, a shared Roman heritage, and previous ties during the Spanish Empire’s age made many Iberians open-minded to accept a union with Italy. The widespread hope also played a positive effect that such a union would help improve the stability, economic development, and modernization of Iberia. Even many nationalists reluctantly acknowledged they could not realistically defy victorious Italy in postwar conditions. The King of Italy took the throne of Spain in a personal union, and the two nations formed a confederation, the Latin Union. Much like their northern neighbors, the central government of the union managed defense, foreign affairs, and the economy, and member states kept autonomy in many domestic issues. Spain itself underwent a federal reform, with Portugal and the various regions of Spain getting autonomy.
The Germanic Union kept the Dutch East Indies and got Heligoland, southern Morocco, western Algeria, Spanish Guinea, Angola, East Timor, and the British territories in Southeast Asia. The Latin Union kept Mozambique and the Philippines and got northern Morocco, Gibraltar, Malta, eastern Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Albania. Britain had to return the Azores and the Canary Islands to the Latin Union. The Germans and the Italians decided to inflict a brutal, Carthaginian peace on France to end its threat and punish what they regarded as the recidivist aggressor attitude of the French. The Germanic Union annexed Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Wallonia, western Lorraine, Wallonia, and northern Franche-Comte. The Latin Union annexed southern Franche-Comte, Dauphiné, most of Provence, the Northern Basque Country, and Roussillon. Brittany and Occitania became independent states. The victor powers expelled most French-speaking inhabitants of the annexed areas, replacing them with their own settlers, and enacted harsh measures to suppress use of French in their territory. They likewise strived to encourage use of Briton and Occitan and the development of a separate national identity in the newly independent states. France also had to pay a massive amount of reparations.
Russia annexed various Armenian and Georgian territories in the Caucasus, including Ardahan, Artvin, Batum, Kars, Olti, and Beyazit. It also got northwestern Persia, eastern Anatolia, upper Mesopotamia, and northern Syria, including the vilayets of Erzurum, Bitlis, Van, Diyarbakir, Trebizond, the eastern portions of Mamuret-ul-Aziz and Sivas, and the northern parts of Aleppo, Deyr Zor, and Mosul. Turkey and Persia became client states of Russia. The Russians merged Serbia, Montenegro, and Bulgaria into the South Slav Kingdom, also commonly known as ‘Yugoslavia’, with a Russian prince on the throne. The new South Slav state was a Serb-Bulgarian union with Orthodoxy and Pan-Slavism as a common bond that the Russians created to organize their Balkan sphere of influence and keep its nationalist conflicts under control. It got most of Vardar Macedonia, northern Kosovo, and Thrace west of the Enos-Midia line. Greece acquired Thessaly, Epirus, Aegean Macedonia, Crete, the Aegean islands, Ionia, Cyprus, Constantinople, and the Straits area. Hungary annexed Northern Dobruja and partitioned Bosnia with the SSK to appease its Croat and Romanian nationalities. Latin Albania got most of Kosovo and northwestern Vardar Macedonia.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 2, 2018 13:42:45 GMT
Yugoslavia and Greece joined the Russian sphere of influence, which now spanned the Balkans and the Near East. Poland and Hungary remained part of the German-Italian sphere of influence and Occitania and Brittany joined them. Mitteleuropa now spanned most of Europe with the formation of the Germanic and Latin unions and the subjugation of France. The Germans and the Italians shared few illusions about the attitudes of the French towards their hegemony but also assumed they had brought France so low it ceased to be a serious threat. The war consolidated their strategic partnership and they strengthened their bloc with the establishment of a Pan-European economic and monetary union and military alliance. The CEMU became the European Economic and Monetary Union, dropping the 'Central' label.
The Central Powers and Russia put down all unrest in the Arab lands of the former Ottoman Empire and carved them up in a few client states of theirs. They established Palestine and Lebanon as a homeland and haven for those Middle Eastern Christians and Jews who avoided annexation by a European state. Over time, it also came to experience a considerable amount of Jew and Christian immigration from Europe and Russia. To give political structure to this new entity the victor powers revived the medieval Kingdom of Jerusalem. Syria and Mesopotamia became the Kingdom of Greater Syria under the Hashemite dynasty. The Arabian Peninsula became the Kingdom of Rashidi Arabia under the Rashidi dynasty. Egypt became a Kingdom as well and kept Sudan. Greater Syria and Rashidi Arabia became client states of Russia, while Egypt became a client of the Central Powers. Persia got Baluchistan and western Afghanistan, Russia annexed the northern portion of the Emirate, and British India got the southeastern area. The Central Powers and Russia agreed to share control of the Suez Canal and influence on the Kingdom of Jerusalem on equal terms.
A vast mass expulsion of Muslims from conquered territories in Europe and the Near East occurred that the victor powers (and European public opinion at large) supported or tolerated out of their own anti-Islamic prejudice. The vast majority of Muslims in the Balkans, the western Anatolian coast, the Aegean islands, Cyprus, Palestine, Lebanon, and eastern Anatolia (Turks, Kurds, Chechens, Circassians, and Abkhaz) suffered ethnic cleansing and had to immigrate to Turkey, Persia, Egypt, Greater Syria, and Rashidi Arabia. The mass expulsion also came to include most of the Muslims in the Caucasus region, which the Russians had eventually managed to pacify after a savage decades-long struggle.
They were mostly replaced by expansion of autochthonous Christian groups and nationalities (Serbs, Bulgarians, Greeks, Georgians, Armenians, Assyrians, and Maronites), resettlement of Russian, Belarusians, and Ukrainian immigrants in the Russian territories, and immigration of Middle Eastern and European Jews and Christians to Palestine and Lebanon. There were a few exceptions to this mass-expulsion pattern; they mostly involved those nationalities deemed sufficiently loyal, liable to conversion and cultural assimilation, or simply not worth the effort. These more fortunate cases included the Albanians, Azerbaijanis, and Muslim Bosnians. However, in most cases even these surviving Muslim communities ended up converting to Christianity or picking a secular and lukewarm attitude towards Islam because of European rule and cultural influence.
Despite their liberal political character, the Germanic and Latin Unions also ended up enacting a similar colonial policy in North Africa, although in this case there was some genuine acceptance of natives that showed willingness to collaborate European rule and go along with cultural assimilation. Reasons for this included the Central Powers' wish to secure their economic and strategic control of the Mediterranean, Italy’s drive to absorb its ‘Fourth Shore’, and Iberia's long-standing aspirations for expansion in North Africa. The Germanics and the Latins in their respective North African colonies applied more or less the same ruthless mix of settler colonization, forced assimilation of collaborationist natives, and extermination or ethnic cleansing of rebel elements to accomplish Europeanization of their North African colonies. Northwest Africa became the target of extensive European settlement the colonial authorities encouraged with economic incentives and infrastructure development. Despite desperate Arab and Berber resistance, it looked like Northwest Africa was bound to become an extension of Europe in a few decades, much the same way Islam had largely ceased to exist in the Balkans, the Caucasus, and large portions of the Middle East.
The USA annexed the rest of North America. The war gave Manifest Destiny a massive boost and persuaded the American elites and public opinion that national security absolutely required complete control and undisputed US rule of the North American continent. This strategic imperative overrode any possible concern about the addition of people of different race, ethnicity, language, or religion to the American nation. Because of the circumstances that had led to America’s entry in the war, many Canadians had developed pro-US and republican sympathies in their opposition to British colonial rule, and most others at least deemed union with the USA beneficial in economic and political terms or simply inevitable. Therefore, incorporation of the Canadian section in the Union and the American political system occurred remarkably easily. Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, and Columbia soon became US states, and the rest of Western Canada was set for statehood once it achieved an appropriate level of development, same as the other Western US territories. Prince Edward’s Island merged with Nova Scotia due to insufficient population to become a US state on its own.
Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti, and the British and French colonies in the Caribbean became US territories. Their Black population was included in the ‘Liberia program’ of mass resettlement to West Africa. The European powers acquiesced to the US demand to cede their territorial possessions in the Western Hemisphere, so Russia sold Alaska to the USA and the Germanic Union ceded Greenland, the Danish West Indies, and the Dutch Antilles. In a similar way, Columbia agreed to cede Panama to the USA. Venezuela and Brazil partitioned British, Dutch, and French Guyana, and Argentina got the Falkland Islands. The peace treaty acknowledged the Monroe Doctrine as part of international law.
The Americans and the Central Powers tried to win independence for Ireland at the peace table, but they failed since they had not enough advantage to impose such an onerous concession on Britain. Therefore, the British were eventually able to quell unrest in Ireland. For similar reasons, the British and the Russians agreed to set the border between their spheres of influence in Central Asia on the western outskirts of the Indus River basin. In the immediate postwar period, France experienced massive political backlash from defeat, the brutal peace settlement, and economic collapse caused by the crippling reparations and territorial losses, which took the form of a socialist revolution. The Central Powers, however, were unwilling to let a socialist revolutionary state exist on their borders that might become a haven for far-leftist subversion across Europe. They also feared it would become a vehicle for French revanchism, especially once unrest seemingly started to spread to Occitania. Therefore, a CP expeditionary corps marched into France, easily defeated the revolutionary French army, and restored a moderate government in Paris. They likewise suppressed all revolutionary and pro-French unrest in Occitania. After the intervention, however, the victor powers realized they had to do something besides military repression to stabilize France. Consequently, an international conference significantly mitigated the reparations regime and granted France various economic relief measures.
Out of desperation for the future of their nation, a few French politicians and intellectuals conceived the idea of an Anglo-French union, on the model of the Germanic and Latin states. The idea gained momentum among the weary French populace, and took popularity in Britain since it seemed a good way to counterbalance the overwhelming power of the Central Powers and Russia. In a few years, negotiations led to the establishment of the Anglo-French union, with joint citizenship, defense, foreign, financial, and economic policies. Since they were reluctant to undergo another conflict with Britain, the Central Powers grudgingly allowed the union to form. The French willingly gave up republicanism and allegiance to the Bourbon or the Bonaparte as failed experiments and embraced the British monarchy as their own head of state. In exchange for this show of allegiance, the British reigning royal house, which had already renamed itself the House of Windsor and abandoned all tiles held under the German Crown during the war, again renamed itself the House of Windsor-Versailles.
Brittany remained mostly immune to postwar revolutionary unrest that swept France and troubled Occitania, mostly because Breton nationalism proved sufficiently efficient to establish an alternate identity for its people, especially given the sorry state of France immediately after the war. Ruling Breton nationalists strived to entrench their newfound independence by emphasizing the Celtic character of Brittany and its role as a haven and model for all the other Celtic nations under foreign rule. The formation of the Anglo-French union and the consequent stabilization of France, however, tilted the balance considerably in favor of the French nationalists and more so did the generous covert support provided by the Anglo-French. The result was the explosion of a civil war in Brittany between Breton and French nationalists, which gave the Anglo-French a pretext to intervene and annex Brittany. The Central Powers reacted with considerable annoyance and for a while, tensions threatened the explosion of a new general conflict.
In the end, however, the great powers contained the crisis, mostly because the Central Powers assumed formation of the Anglo-French union mostly made independence of Brittany strategically unsustainable in the long term. Therefore, they were reluctant to fight for what they saw as a doomed cause and settled down for recognizing the new status quo in exchange for a few colonial and economic compensations. However, they made clear they would not tolerate any support for French revanchism about Occitania or the lost eastern territories, or any new Anglo-French attempts to destabilize the postwar status quo of Europe. They declared the Quadruple Alliance would answer any such destabilization with military force. The Germanics and the Latins redoubled their efforts to build up Occitania as a separate nation and suppress all French influence within their own territories. Besides the formation of the union with France and the annexation of Brittany, postwar Britain and later the Anglo-French union focused on defense and stabilization of the British Empire, rebuilding France in a good shape, and colonial development of India, Australasia, and Southern Africa.
After the war, the victor powers mostly turned to internal development, pursuit of industrialization, and proper pacification, stabilization, and development of their gains. This however did not entirely stop them from indulging in some serious colonial expansion, which in the first decade after the war mostly took place in Asia. The Central Powers engaged in the colonization of Southeast Asia. According to the spheres of influence agreement between Berlin and Rome, this meant Indonesia, the Malay Peninsula, Burma, and Siam for the Germanic Union and the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos for the Latin Union. The Central Powers brought these areas under their control in a series of colonial wars. In a similar way, Russia strived to expand its colonial penetration in various areas of western and northern China.
The Germanic and Latin drive to seize control of Annam, Tonkin, and northern Burma caused increased tensions with China that regarded these areas as part of its sphere of influence, and eventually a state of war between China and the Central Powers. China’s troubles further increased when Russia joined the conflict to fulfill its own expansionist ambitions on the northern borderlands of the Chinese Empire. The Russian government picked the excuse of border clashes in Xinjiang to declare war. Mid-19th century ethnic and religious rebellions and conflicts with European powers had seriously weakened China’s ability to keep control of distant Xinjiang, leaving the region in a chaotic state. Russia had exploited the situation to occupy part of the province, and Qing attempts to restore their control led to armed clashes.
To add to China’s troubles, a group of pro-Japanese reformers briefly overthrew the pro-Chinese conservative Korean government in a bloody coup. However, the pro-Chinese faction, with assistance from Chinese troops, succeeded in regaining control in an equally bloody counter-coup. These coups resulted in the deaths of a number of reformers, but also caused the burning of the Japanese legation and the deaths of several legation guards and citizens. China had long held Korea as a tributary state. Japan had engaged a very successful program of modernization and industrialization during the last two decades. It wished to increase its influence in Korea, both to use its mineral and agricultural resources for its own growing economy and population and to eliminate the threat a Korean Peninsula in the hands of a hostile foreign power represented for Japan. Escalation to war between China and Japan was the result.
The Russian and Japanese interventions fostered an agreement between Russia and Japan to define their respective strategic interests in Northeast Asia. The Russians recognized Korea, Sakhalin, and the Kuril islands in the Japanese sphere of influence, and the Japanese acknowledged Manchuria and Mongolia as a Russian interest. The Germanic and Latin navies destroyed the Chinese southern fleets, bombed several South Chinese ports, and imposed a blockade of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. The Germanic and Latin armies defeated the Chinese and their Vietnamese and Burmese allies in Tonkin and northern Burma and landed in Hainan and Formosa. The war with China dramatically showed the positive effects of the modernization process in Japan. The Japanese navy crushed the Chinese northern fleet, while Japanese armies landed in the Korean Peninsula, pushed Chinese forces out of it, overrun Korea, and imposed a pro-Japanese government. Russian armies penetrated deep into northern Manchuria and western Xinjiang, defeating Chinese forces. In the meanwhile, the Germanic and Latin armies consolidated their hold of Tonkin, northern Burma, Hainan, and Formosa, and invaded Yunnan and Guangxi. The Japanese advanced in southern Manchuria and northern China, eventually joining hands with the Russians.
As powerful enemies encircled China and sent its armies on the run on multiple fronts, the Qing dynasty decided to beg for peace after an unsuccessful attempt to get help from other powers. China recognized the Germanic protectorate on Burma and ceded Yunnan to the Germanic Union. It likewise recognized the Latin protectorate on Vietnam and ceded Hainan and Formosa to the Latin Union. The Central Powers had to spend a few more years to entrench their control of their conquests, but were ultimately successful. Russia annexed Manchuria, Xinjiang, and Mongolia, and engaged in a successful multi-year attempt to pacify the conquered regions. China recognized Japanese control of Korea.
European expansion in East Asia was one reason the USA decided to annex the Hawaii. Due to the last few wars, Russia had accumulated a considerable debt, which the Alaska Purchase had helped lessen even if it was not by any means a complete solution. Given the successful precedent of the Alaska Purchase, they conceived the idea to sell a portion of the Russian Far East to the USA. With cession of Alaska and acquisition of Manchuria, Kolyma and Kamchatka had lost much of their economic and strategic importance for the Russian Empire, and their mineral wealth was still unknown. On its part, the USA was skeptical about the economic value of the area, but interested in the acquisition of Kamchatka to extend its strategic and economic influence in the Pacific region. Not without some controversy in America about purchasing another “icebox”, the USA and Russia agreed upon and ratified American purchase of Kolyma and Kamchatka.
Japan quickly moved to make Korea a protectorate and in a few years turned it into formal annexation. It also annexed Sakhalin (renamed Karafuto by the Japanese). The Japanese strived to integrate Korea in the Japanese Empire and to enact the same modernization and industrialization program that had been so successful in their homeland. Japanese rule faced the opposition of nationalist scholars and the Confucian conservative elites that had thrived under the Joseon dynasty. Its modernizing reforms and the social progress and economic development they brought won it the support of progressive members of the upper and middle classes and many commoners.
The Japanese government strived to integrate the Korean economy and society fully with Japan. Thus, it introduced many modern economic and social institutions, invested heavily in infrastructure, including schools, railroads and utilities, and it fostered parallel industrialization of Japan and Korea. It promoted mediatization and intermarriage of the Korean royal household and Yangban elite in the Japanese royal family and peerage. Cultural assimilation efforts, such as support for adoption of Japanese-style names during transition to a modern family registry system, balanced with respect for Korean cultural heritage. The Japanese administration introduced a public education system modeled after the Japanese school system. The public curriculum focused on western knowledge, patriotic moral and political instruction, and a hybrid system of Korean and Japanese history and language studies.
Official Japanese policy promoted equality between ethnic Koreans and ethnic Japanese and the notion of racial and imperial unity of Korea and Japan. Many Koreans could sympathize since they came to associate the Korean kingdom, which had utterly failed to modernize on its own, with backwardness, the Confucian caste system, and poverty, while the Japanese Empire meant modernity, social progress, and economic development. As a result, they gradually came to focus their political aspirations as a community on equality with the Japanese or autonomy rather than independence; otherwise, they usually aligned with the ideological agendas of like-minded Japanese.
Before and after the Great War, Germany, Italy, and America continued their vigorous industrialization process, which after the annexations caused by the conflict spread to Scandinavia, Iberia, and all of North America. Economic prosperity cemented the majority consensus for the political regime created by the liberal revolutions, the formation of the Germanic and Latin unions, and US conquest of North America. Industrialization brought some serious social issues of its own but as a rule they remained entirely manageable for the ruling classes. Industrialization turned the Germanic Union into an economic and military giant and its secondary spread into Poland and Hungary helped bring modernization, economic development, and political stability to Central Europe. Much the same way, it gradually erased all traces of backwardness from Italy and Iberia, and firmly entrenched the Latin Union in the ranks of industrialized great powers.
Prosperity also allowed the American republic to digest the burden of the civil war and the Great War, assimilate the Canadian, Southern, and Hispanic sections in the Union, and help the former slave states transition into industrial modernity. The Union gradually completed its settlement of the Western territories and put down all resistance to its undisputed rule of North America, be it from hostile Amerindian tribes, British Loyalist diehards, or Latin American nationalists. Over time, most inhabitants of the Hispanic section came to acknowledge the benefits of US rule in terms of political stability, liberal democracy, economic development, social modernization, and made themselves content with the status of US citizens.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 2, 2018 13:43:16 GMT
More controversially and at a terrible humanitarian price, the USA also got the resources to enact a massive transfer of the Black population of North America to West Africa. Several freedmen went willingly, in the hope to build a better life for themselves and their families in their ancestral continent, where they would be empowered with the achievements of modern civilization and free of the burdens of racism, slavery, and second-class citizenship. Many more were forced to leave. Once the resettlement program got momentum, the vast majority of the American elites and public opinion eagerly supported it as a near-optimal solution to the problem of a minority they could not keep into bondage anymore but far too few were truly willing to accept as equals in their society. America chose to deal with the ugly legacy of slavery by abolishing the practice, sending its victims back to their ancestral home, and locking the door behind them. The USA was not going to repeal the legal ban to immigration for people of African descent for a very long time.
A sizeable portion of the transferees died during the forcible round-ups and transportation, and many more fell victim to rampant disease in the West Africa region. European and American public opinion remained entirely oblivious to the death rates, and even more so to the terrible toll of disease. An optimistic and romantic vision dominated of the Black resettlement program that made it the equivalent of European colonization and immigration to the New World. Moreover, pretty much everyone in the 19th century honestly assumed African ethnicity made the American Blacks highly resistant to tropical African diseases. The survivors, however, got the numbers and human capital to establish Liberia as an independent African nation that ultimately came to encompass most of West Africa. Given the origins of the country, the Americo-Liberian elite came to dominate it in social, political, cultural, and economic terms. Their discrimination and exploitation of indigenous West Africans ironically became one of the biggest issues of Liberia, and one that was going to stand for a long time.
Abundant immigration from Europe, East Asia, South Asia, the Hispanic territories, and South America entirely replaced the deported Blacks as a workforce in North America. Although this inevitably created some important political and social backlash over time, it never went as serious as it would have likely been with the continued presence of the Black minority. Harsh as it was, the forcible removal of the Blacks ultimately also acted as a sacrifice that largely appeased the racist demons of American society. It allowed the USA to develop in a more progressive way than if a large section dedicated to hard-core conservatism had evolved in its midst out of dedication to racial segregation to keep the freedmen down.
With some inevitable foot-dragging, the entire Hispanic section was able to claim statehood by the end of the 19th century. Its elites found their place in the American political system, and the region gradually overcame the peonage system and the legacy of socio-economic backwardness hailing from the colonial period. Much like the former slave section, it experienced a significant measure of industrialization and modernization. A noticeable gap remained with the Northern, Canadian, and Upper South industrialized core of the Union, but it got nowhere so damning as it was before the ACW and the Great War.
Despite some nativist pressure, all attempts to enforce legal limits on Latin American, Asian, or the ‘wrong’ kind of European immigration never got sufficient traction, and ultimately failed. To be fair, however, by the end of the century the achievements of the Latin Union, Russia, and Mitteleuropa had grown so evident that the vast majority of American public opinion regarded potential WASP prejudice against Southern Europeans and Eastern Europeans as stark lunacy. Much the same way, inclusion of Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America in the Union soon made Catholics and speakers of Romance languages far too important and influential to be safely discriminated or prejudiced.
The USA also pioneered the world in establishment of female suffrage. Inclusion of the Hispanic section with its large Amerindian and mixed-blood population somewhat eased social and political acceptance of Amerindians that embraced assimilation in American society. It could do nothing, however, to change the fate of the natives that actively resisted White colonization. The US army, territorial militias, and armed settlers brutally crushed them and exterminated a sizable portion of them. They forced the survivors into reservations carved up in the least valuable and hospitable portions of the North American continent. The Indian Wars were a long string of US victories, almost without exception.
The Civil War, Reconstruction, and Great War sequence caused the addition to the US Constitution of a few Amendments. They abolished slavery, repealed clauses concerning it in the original document, guaranteed the Federal war debt would be paid (and promised the Confederate debt would never be paid), and stripped the right to hold office from former Confederates who had previously sworn loyalty to the US Constitution by holding federal or state offices. The amendments also prohibited establishment of a national language and guaranteed the states could keep a legal system that did not conflict with the US Constitution, as conciliatory measures for the Franco-Canadians. The Congress purposefully avoided putting anything in the Constitution that could get in the way of the Liberia program or provide citizenship or equal protection under the laws for the freedmen.
Only a few decades later, when the last ship of the Liberia program had long sailed, the Congress and the states did ratify an Amendment that decreed the federal government or the states could not deny the right to vote or hold office because of sex, race, color, ethnicity, language, creed, or because of the failure to pay poll taxes. This happened as part of the reforms of the Progressive Age and the combined pressure of the movements for political and social reform and emancipation of women and non-Whites. By then the latter meant Hispanics, Asians, and assimilated Amerindians. As part of the same process and out of a rising concern for abuses of state power, they ratified another Amendment that extended the rights guaranteed by the US Constitution to the states. It protected the privileges and immunities of national citizenship from interference by the states, prohibited state and local government officials from depriving persons of life, liberty, or property without legislative authorization, and required each state to provide equal protection under the law to all people within its jurisdiction.
The ACW and the Great War left the USA war-weary but reinforced and made confident in its destiny by victory against Southern secessionists and European imperialists. Albeit at a terrible price, the American republic had affirmed its national unity, ended slavery, won a lot of valuable new land, and forced the European powers to accept US hegemony of North America. The war made the Americans proud and elated for victory in Canada and Mexico but suspicious of European encroachment in the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific. The American people remained wary of big standing armies, so the wartime land forces were demobilized. However, the war imprinted the need for strong armed forces in the US public. The Americans took care to learn the lessons of the last two wars and keep military equipment, the officer corps, the regular army, state militias, and the coastal defence system at a high level of quality and efficiency.
US coasts and land borders became rather more militarized than they had been before the war. The goal of US military policy was to guarantee effective defence of North America by peacetime forces and quick mobilization of a vast army of good quality to fight anywhere in the Americas or the Pacific. An ambitious naval building program aimed to ensure US naval supremacy in the Western Hemisphere and build a US Navy that could fight the Royal Navy or any other European Navy as an equal in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The Americans were determined not to suffer another serious threat to their continental security or freedom of trade ever again.
The ACW and the Great War dramatically showed the great strategic importance of efficient and reliable intra-continental logistics in North America and inter-oceanic connection with the Pacific. This persuaded the Congress to make a very generous investment effort on North American infrastructure projects. A timely completion of the first transcontinental railroad greatly helped avoid an enemy occupation of the West Coast during the war. That line followed the so-called ‘Central’ route to California. The Americans later built two other ‘Northern’ and ‘Southern’ routes across the Northwest and the Southwest respectively. The southern transcontinental railroad pleased the Southern states and was an infrastructure hallmark of national reconciliation. It also greatly eased settlement and Americanization of the Southwest and the Northern Mexican territories.
Much the same way, a strategic imperative to get the Northwest and Western Canada settled as soon as possible to consolidate US rule over the region drove building of the northern railroad. It proved quite effective at this and helped conciliate the Canadian section and foster its integration in the Union. For this reason, they effectively duplicated it into two parallel branches that mostly followed the old Oregon Trail and the Saskatchewan River system respectively. Because of similar strategic concerns, they also decided to build a Pan-American Railroad that run through the Gulf Coast region, Mexico, and Central America and connected New Orleans with Panama and the Darian Gap. Additional north-south branches connected it with the Midwest states and the West Coast. The federal government made an earnest effort to rebuild and improve infrastructure in the Southern, Canadian, and Hispanic sections and ensure efficient northern-southern logistic integration across North America. This promoted economic development and social modernization in the Hispanic section and helped the development of a positive attitude towards US rule in Mexico and Central America.
Strong interest for an inter-oceanic canal in Central America was another expression of US strategic drive for efficient and secure continental travel. A number of surveys before and after the last two wars led to the conclusion the two most favorable routes were those across Nicaragua and Panama, with a route across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico as a third, less advantageous option. The Nicaragua canal appeared easier to build than the Panama one and soon after the conclusion of the war, the Congress picked this option and financed the construction of the Nicaragua Canal. The Americans completed building of the Canal in a decade. It worked to the full satisfaction of its builders in the following decades. By the turning of the century, however, ever-increasing inter-oceanic trade and expanding US strategic and economic interests in the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific created an emergent demand for a second canal. Eventually this translated into the US government's decision to finance the building of the Panama Canal too. Like its sister project, the Americans built the Panama Canal in a decade.
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 2, 2018 14:17:26 GMT
As always, I welcome constructive comments, ideas, and contributions. I tend to assume a decisive victory of 1848 liberalism would have other important effects beyond the events described in the TL, such as encouraging the nascent workers' movement to take a somewhat less radical prevalent direction than dominant Marxism and anarchism. The First Great War left the great powers in an uneasy balance that makes a second general conflict by the turn of the century quite possible (especially if Russia and the Anglo-French Union realign the same way as OTL) but far from certain. The Scramble for Africa is just beyond the corner and in all likelihood won't change its main features much, although the settlement it creates is necessarily going to be radically different. China might go in various different ways, from making the decline and downfall of the Qing and the resulting chaos even more messy because of increased European pressure (quite likely) to opening a chance for successful reform (possible and in-theme with greater success of liberalism, but far from certain). The Muslim world got screwed even worse than OTL, but this was kind of inevitable in the short and medium term given the events in Europe (much stronger Central Powers, Russia expelled from Central Europe but not seriously weakened, crippled France, weakened Britain). I assume South America should be somewhat affected by butterflies from events in Europe and North America, but I am unsure exactly how, apart from a greater success of federal liberalism being appropriate to the general course of the TL. Success in the 1848 revolutions and the First Great War left the Central Powers in a very strong position, they have a very good chance to continue their evolution to developed democracies and unify Europe under their hegemony if only they can keep Russia at bay and contain (or defeat) Anglo-French revanchism. Russia is at a crossroads, it has a chance to avoid almost all of its OTL disasters or fail just as badly. America in all likelihood shall have an even better course at home and in its home turf (although the Blacks paid a terrible price for it) although probably it shall get less of a chance to be an undisputed global hegemon. Earlier, stronger rise of the 'new powers' sent Britain in a much accelerated trajectory to decline, although they tried to compensate by joining ranks with the remnants of France. The French tried to fight back the emergence of the Mitteleuropa block and paid a terrible price for their failure, much like OTL Germany, sucks to be them.
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