James G
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Post by James G on Sept 14, 2018 19:20:28 GMT
Back in 1998, there was a plot by Islamic extremists to target the football (soccer) World Cup in France. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_World_Cup_terror_plotIf it had taken place, successfully or seen failure, including the attack on the US team, could it have begun a process in the last years of the Clinton Presidency leading to an earlier War on Terror? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 14, 2018 19:26:02 GMT
Back in 1998, there was a plot by Islamic extremists to target the football (soccer) World Cup in France. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_World_Cup_terror_plotIf it had taken place, successfully or seen failure, including the attack on the US team, could it have begun a process in the last years of the Clinton Presidency leading to an earlier War on Terror? The loss of live could have been bigger than 9/11. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 14, 2018 22:01:23 GMT
Back in 1998, there was a plot by Islamic extremists to target the football (soccer) World Cup in France. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_World_Cup_terror_plotIf it had taken place, successfully or seen failure, including the attack on the US team, could it have begun a process in the last years of the Clinton Presidency leading to an earlier War on Terror?
Sounds like there have been attacks planned at at least two big tournaments and we're been lucky so far. Hopefully this will last but things could get very nasty if the vermin get through at some stage.
If the big attacks planned in 98 had gone through it would have been a serious massacre and if the link with al-Qaeda had been found out quickly you might still have had the invasion of Afghanistan once the Taliban refused to hand him over - although this might be a lower priority - but there's likely to be no invasion of Iraq. However since the main criminals seem to have been Muslims settled in Europe terrorism there could be a much higher priority. You could also see some nasty reactions against European Muslims and probably earlier pressure for restrictions on migration from Muslim areas.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Sept 15, 2018 2:05:41 GMT
I've seen in older documents references to the Reagan-era intervention in Lebanon as a 'war on terror.' Perhaps that could spiral into something bigger?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 15, 2018 5:35:23 GMT
I've seen in older documents references to the Reagan-era intervention in Lebanon as a 'war on terror.' Perhaps that could spiral into something bigger? Would the current War on Terror not need to be called the 2nd War on Terror then. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2018 9:15:27 GMT
I've seen in older documents references to the Reagan-era intervention in Lebanon as a 'war on terror.' Perhaps that could spiral into something bigger? Would the current War on Terror not need to be called the 2nd War on Terror then.
Unfortunately the attention span of both many leaders and much of the public is too short.  I can remember when the "Gulf War" was the one between Iran and Iraq. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 15, 2018 9:49:48 GMT
Would the current War on Terror not need to be called the 2nd War on Terror then. Unfortunately the attention span of both many leaders and much of the public is too short. I can remember when the "Gulf War" was the one between Iran and Iraq. Thus the one in 2003 schould be called 3rd Gulf War. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2018 14:54:31 GMT
Unfortunately the attention span of both many leaders and much of the public is too short. I can remember when the "Gulf War" was the one between Iran and Iraq. Thus the one in 2003 schould be called 3rd Gulf War.
If you wanted to be accurate and ignoring wars pre-WWII say but I doubt that would stick in the popular mind.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 15, 2018 15:00:36 GMT
Thus the one in 2003 schould be called 3rd Gulf War. If you wanted to be accurate and ignoring wars pre-WWII say but I doubt that would stick in the popular mind.
Okay having asked and revived a answer. We can agree the French will be pissed of a attack on this magnitude happens om French soil. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2018 15:26:04 GMT
If you wanted to be accurate and ignoring wars pre-WWII say but I doubt that would stick in the popular mind.
Okay having asked and revived a answer. We can agree the French will be pissed of a attack on this magnitude happens om French soil.
Most definitely. Although if the link with al-Qaeda is missed or considered fairly irrelevant then they don't really have a state to aim their anger at. If its a rather vague organisation or shadowy group its a lot more difficult for a government to do anything. Which is another reason why you could see a strong public reaction against the Muslim minority it France and possibly elsewhere in Europe.
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kyng
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Post by kyng on Sept 15, 2018 20:12:01 GMT
I'm a bit unsure about using the 1998 incident as a starting point for an earlier War on Terror. Had it gone ahead, France would certainly have been pissed; however, it wouldn't have resonated as strongly in the USA, because: a) the attack wouldn't have taken place on US soil, and b) the victims wouldn't have been primarily "ordinary Americans".
Instead, perhaps consider the 1993 World Trade Center bombing? In reality, that led to the deaths of six people - but it could have been so much worse. The aim of the attack was to crash the North Tower into the South Tower, potentially killing tens of thousands of people in the process. What if THAT had succeeded?
(Do note that the Taliban wasn't yet in power in Afghanistan in 1993, and al-Qaeda wasn't based there until 1996. Instead, they were based in Sudan, which in OTL was designated a state sponsor of terrorism in 1993. So, perhaps there's a full-scale invasion of Sudan?)
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2018 20:22:56 GMT
I'm a bit unsure about using the 1998 incident as a starting point for an earlier War on Terror. Had it gone ahead, France would certainly have been pissed; however, it wouldn't have resonated as strongly in the USA, because: a) the attack wouldn't have taken place on US soil, and b) the victims wouldn't have been primarily "ordinary Americans". Instead, perhaps consider the 1993 World Trade Center bombing? In reality, that led to the deaths of six people - but it could have been so much worse. The aim of the attack was to crash the North Tower into the South Tower, potentially killing tens of thousands of people in the process. What if THAT had succeeded? (Do note that the Taliban wasn't yet in power in Afghanistan in 1993, and al-Qaeda wasn't based there until 1996. Instead, they were based in Sudan, which in OTL was designated a state sponsor of terrorism in 1993. So, perhaps there's a full-scale invasion of Sudan?)
That would be a big problem potentially, even if a lot of the US team were killed. It wouldn't have the same impact on the US with less deaths and the attack not on their soil. Hence there is the possibility that the US is unwilling to act in support of its allies. This would make the reaction against the attack much weaker and also possibly drive something of a wedge between the Europeans and the US.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 4:00:45 GMT
I'm a bit unsure about using the 1998 incident as a starting point for an earlier War on Terror. Had it gone ahead, France would certainly have been pissed; however, it wouldn't have resonated as strongly in the USA, because: a) the attack wouldn't have taken place on US soil, and b) the victims wouldn't have been primarily "ordinary Americans". Instead, perhaps consider the 1993 World Trade Center bombing? In reality, that led to the deaths of six people - but it could have been so much worse. The aim of the attack was to crash the North Tower into the South Tower, potentially killing tens of thousands of people in the process. What if THAT had succeeded? (Do note that the Taliban wasn't yet in power in Afghanistan in 1993, and al-Qaeda wasn't based there until 1996. Instead, they were based in Sudan, which in OTL was designated a state sponsor of terrorism in 1993. So, perhaps there's a full-scale invasion of Sudan?) One would think that Sudan would have unconditionally accepted any U.S. ultimatum in regards to this, no? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 20, 2018 16:00:08 GMT
I'm a bit unsure about using the 1998 incident as a starting point for an earlier War on Terror. Had it gone ahead, France would certainly have been pissed; however, it wouldn't have resonated as strongly in the USA, because: a) the attack wouldn't have taken place on US soil, and b) the victims wouldn't have been primarily "ordinary Americans". Instead, perhaps consider the 1993 World Trade Center bombing? In reality, that led to the deaths of six people - but it could have been so much worse. The aim of the attack was to crash the North Tower into the South Tower, potentially killing tens of thousands of people in the process. What if THAT had succeeded? (Do note that the Taliban wasn't yet in power in Afghanistan in 1993, and al-Qaeda wasn't based there until 1996. Instead, they were based in Sudan, which in OTL was designated a state sponsor of terrorism in 1993. So, perhaps there's a full-scale invasion of Sudan?) One would think that Sudan would have unconditionally accepted any U.S. ultimatum in regards to this, no?
I don't know as the regime in the Sudan at the time was pretty autocratic and fairly hard line Arabic/Islamic and already pretty unpopular in the west for its atrocities against the southern parts of the country. It could still decide to refuse a demand for bin Laden to be handed over and you might have seen an American invasion, probably backed by at least Britain and France. Not sure how the states in the region would have reacted to this.
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I can remember when the "Gulf War" was the one between Iran and Iraq.