futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 6, 2018 3:04:35 GMT
Here's the scenario that I am thinking of here: Due to France doing a better job of defending the Ardennes, the Manstein Plan fails and thus France doesn't fall in 1940. After several months, Hitler and the Nazis are overthrown and replaced by a military junta of anti-Nazi German generals.
Britain and France offer an armistice to the new German government in exchange for having it withdraw from all of Poland. However, they would also be willing to recognize Danzig as a part of Germany if the new German government will militarily assist Poland in trying to militarily retake the Kresy (eastern Poland).
Now, my question is this--would Poland actually be interested in this? In other words, would Poland be willing to allow Danzig to reunite with Germany in exchange for German military assistance in a war between Poland and the Soviet Union over control of the Kresy? Or would Poland be willing to permanently give up on the Kresy as the price of preventing Danzig from reuniting with Germany?
Any thoughts on this?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 6, 2018 3:04:48 GMT
Also, for what it's worth, I am thinking of Britain and France retaining a large number of military forces on their border with Germany as well as retaining their blockade of Germany in order to serve as insurance against Germany.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 6, 2018 9:57:43 GMT
Also, for what it's worth, I am thinking of Britain and France retaining a large number of military forces on their border with Germany as well as retaining their blockade of Germany in order to serve as insurance against Germany.
Well I can't see them maintaining the blockade after a peace agreement is made because: a) That would be illegal.
b) It would make future conflict more likely due to the problems caused.
c) Such an allied blockade would make them even more dependent on their deal with Stalin of raw materials for technology so would seem to be counter-productive.
On the main issue I'm not sure such a deal would be viable. Taking on the Soviets would be a huge job, especially for a Germany that has been defeated by the western powers and if the latter can enforce a withdrawal from Danzig, which was never part of Poland, its a heavy defeat. Also would the western allies want a military led Germany build up the large forces required for such an operation or the Poles be willing to allow it pretty much free passage through their territory, which would be required?
The best you could get might be some situation where a combined threat from the western powers and the new German government gets Stalin to withdraw from some/all of the Kresey, although given that apart from a few areas, such as the urban centre of Lvov, there were relatively few Poles in the region. [Mind you after nearly a year under Soviet rule this might not be too great an issue for them as even the often unfriendly Polish rule would be seen as much more attractive. But then the opinions of the inhabitants of the region are extremely unlikely to be an issue for Stalin.] However what happens if Stalin decides their bluffing? Can the recent enemies act together in an alliance to force the Soviets out, and would there be the will for this in any of the three great powers involved?
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perkeo
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Post by perkeo on Sept 8, 2018 10:00:32 GMT
If the Germans fail to win the battle of France, they are deep in trouble and should be glad to accomplish status quo ante bellum with no territorial gains, not even Danzig.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 8, 2018 10:06:00 GMT
If the Germans fail to win the battle of France, they are deep in trouble and should be glad to accomplish status quo ante bellum with no territorial gains, not even Danzig.
Agreed. What is likely to be a factor is that the western allies would almost certainly want the Czech republic to regain independence and probably also including the Sudetenland to give it some level of security.
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mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Sept 9, 2018 0:16:32 GMT
the massive population transfers to prevent future German territorial claims were because of Stalin, though. Can Britain and France do that in this scenario?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 9, 2018 9:04:18 GMT
the massive population transfers to prevent future German territorial claims were because of Stalin, though. Can Britain and France do that in this scenario?
I don't know if that's relevant in this case as we're not suggesting Poland annexing vast areas of eastern Germany - i.e. Pomerania and Silesia and a chunk of E Prussia. You might see some forced moves from the German minority in the corridor, especially given the brutality of the German occupation but that would be about it.
Or are you talking about the German minority in the Czech republic? That might be an issue again after the annexation there and checking there were about 3 million Germans in the region.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 0:57:32 GMT
Also, for what it's worth, I am thinking of Britain and France retaining a large number of military forces on their border with Germany as well as retaining their blockade of Germany in order to serve as insurance against Germany.
Well I can't see them maintaining the blockade after a peace agreement is made because: a) That would be illegal.
b) It would make future conflict more likely due to the problems caused.
c) Such an allied blockade would make them even more dependent on their deal with Stalin of raw materials for technology so would seem to be counter-productive.
On the main issue I'm not sure such a deal would be viable. Taking on the Soviets would be a huge job, especially for a Germany that has been defeated by the western powers and if the latter can enforce a withdrawal from Danzig, which was never part of Poland, its a heavy defeat. Also would the western allies want a military led Germany build up the large forces required for such an operation or the Poles be willing to allow it pretty much free passage through their territory, which would be required?
The best you could get might be some situation where a combined threat from the western powers and the new German government gets Stalin to withdraw from some/all of the Kresey, although given that apart from a few areas, such as the urban centre of Lvov, there were relatively few Poles in the region. [Mind you after nearly a year under Soviet rule this might not be too great an issue for them as even the often unfriendly Polish rule would be seen as much more attractive. But then the opinions of the inhabitants of the region are extremely unlikely to be an issue for Stalin.] However what happens if Stalin decides their bluffing? Can the recent enemies act together in an alliance to force the Soviets out, and would there be the will for this in any of the three great powers involved?
I was thinking of having them maintain the blockade after an armistice--not after a peace agreement is made. If it's just an armistice, maintaining a blockade is perfectly legal--as evidenced by the fact that the Allies in World War I did exactly this after the November 1918 armistice with Germany--only ending this blockade after Germany actually signed the Treaty of Versailles. Also, can you please elaborate on your point B here? As for your point C here, it's certainly very valid. Indeed, here's the dilemma for Britain and France--they end this blockade, and Germany only grows stronger. Meanwhile, if they keep this blockade, Germany might think that it's suicidal to attack the Soviet Union. As for enforcing a German withdrawal from Danzig, the Western Allies can't do that *yet*; however, the new German leadership could figure out that Germany is screwed in the long(er)-run and has no hope of keeping Danzig if it continues the war. You are correct that this proposition is very much a question mark, though; after all, the new German regime could conclude that it has a chance of bleeding the Western Allies to exhaustion if it continues the war and thus get the Western Allies to agree to let it keep Danzig--in which case there would be no incentive for Germany to go to war with the Soviet Union. As for the Western Allies and the Poles, I would think that they would be hesitant to allow Germany to build up such a huge military and, in Poland's case, to allow it to use Polish territory. Plus, the German occupation of Poland starting from 1939 is probably going to result in a very strong anti-German mood in Poland regardless of what exactly Germany does. An idea of a joint Anglo-Franco-German(-Polish?) ultimatum to the Soviet Union would certainly be interesting. However, something needs to be in it for Germany--such as Danzig (I certainly don't see either the Western Allies or Poland being willing to trade the Polish Corridor for the Kresy). In such a scenario, though, I strongly think that Stalin will fight regardless of whether or not he thinks the British, French, Germans, and Poles are bluffing. After all, if he withdraws from the Kresy and the Ukrainians and Belarusians there begin telling the Polish and Western medias about just how bad life was under Soviet rule, and if this information leaks inside of the Soviet Union, there could be the potential for significant internal unrest there. After all, when people openly say that they lived in the Communist paradise and hated it, and if the other people in the Communist paradise find out about this, then things in the Communist paradise could become rather tense and unpleasant. Thus, I think that Stalin would fight in order to prevent any of his new subjects from leaving the Soviet Union and telling the Polish and Western medias about just how bad life actually is in the Soviet Union. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 0:59:35 GMT
the massive population transfers to prevent future German territorial claims were because of Stalin, though. Can Britain and France do that in this scenario?
I don't know if that's relevant in this case as we're not suggesting Poland annexing vast areas of eastern Germany - i.e. Pomerania and Silesia and a chunk of E Prussia. You might see some forced moves from the German minority in the corridor, especially given the brutality of the German occupation but that would be about it.
Or are you talking about the German minority in the Czech republic? That might be an issue again after the annexation there and checking there were about 3 million Germans in the region.
Yeah, Britain and France don't have the appetite to force a brutal peace treaty on Germany; the best that they can probably hope for without a total German defeat is a restoration of the status quo ante bellum. Also, there is no way that Germany is willing to give up the Sudetenland short of a total German defeat; the rest of Czechia might be negotiable, though--for instance, Germany might be willing to withdraw from it if it is allowed to keep Danzig. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 20, 2018 15:16:40 GMT
Well I can't see them maintaining the blockade after a peace agreement is made because: a) That would be illegal.
b) It would make future conflict more likely due to the problems caused.
c) Such an allied blockade would make them even more dependent on their deal with Stalin of raw materials for technology so would seem to be counter-productive.
On the main issue I'm not sure such a deal would be viable. Taking on the Soviets would be a huge job, especially for a Germany that has been defeated by the western powers and if the latter can enforce a withdrawal from Danzig, which was never part of Poland, its a heavy defeat. Also would the western allies want a military led Germany build up the large forces required for such an operation or the Poles be willing to allow it pretty much free passage through their territory, which would be required?
The best you could get might be some situation where a combined threat from the western powers and the new German government gets Stalin to withdraw from some/all of the Kresey, although given that apart from a few areas, such as the urban centre of Lvov, there were relatively few Poles in the region. [Mind you after nearly a year under Soviet rule this might not be too great an issue for them as even the often unfriendly Polish rule would be seen as much more attractive. But then the opinions of the inhabitants of the region are extremely unlikely to be an issue for Stalin.] However what happens if Stalin decides their bluffing? Can the recent enemies act together in an alliance to force the Soviets out, and would there be the will for this in any of the three great powers involved?
I was thinking of having them maintain the blockade after an armistice--not after a peace agreement is made. If it's just an armistice, maintaining a blockade is perfectly legal--as evidenced by the fact that the Allies in World War I did exactly this after the November 1918 armistice with Germany--only ending this blockade after Germany actually signed the Treaty of Versailles. Also, can you please elaborate on your point B here? As for your point C here, it's certainly very valid. Indeed, here's the dilemma for Britain and France--they end this blockade, and Germany only grows stronger. Meanwhile, if they keep this blockade, Germany might think that it's suicidal to attack the Soviet Union. As for enforcing a German withdrawal from Danzig, the Western Allies can't do that *yet*; however, the new German leadership could figure out that Germany is screwed in the long(er)-run and has no hope of keeping Danzig if it continues the war. You are correct that this proposition is very much a question mark, though; after all, the new German regime could conclude that it has a chance of bleeding the Western Allies to exhaustion if it continues the war and thus get the Western Allies to agree to let it keep Danzig--in which case there would be no incentive for Germany to go to war with the Soviet Union. As for the Western Allies and the Poles, I would think that they would be hesitant to allow Germany to build up such a huge military and, in Poland's case, to allow it to use Polish territory. Plus, the German occupation of Poland starting from 1939 is probably going to result in a very strong anti-German mood in Poland regardless of what exactly Germany does. An idea of a joint Anglo-Franco-German(-Polish?) ultimatum to the Soviet Union would certainly be interesting. However, something needs to be in it for Germany--such as Danzig (I certainly don't see either the Western Allies or Poland being willing to trade the Polish Corridor for the Kresy). In such a scenario, though, I strongly think that Stalin will fight regardless of whether or not he thinks the British, French, Germans, and Poles are bluffing. After all, if he withdraws from the Kresy and the Ukrainians and Belarusians there begin telling the Polish and Western medias about just how bad life was under Soviet rule, and if this information leaks inside of the Soviet Union, there could be the potential for significant internal unrest there. After all, when people openly say that they lived in the Communist paradise and hated it, and if the other people in the Communist paradise find out about this, then things in the Communist paradise could become rather tense and unpleasant. Thus, I think that Stalin would fight in order to prevent any of his new subjects from leaving the Soviet Union and telling the Polish and Western medias about just how bad life actually is in the Soviet Union.
OK if there's only an armistice then I can't see the Germans being willing to make any agreement about supporting an attack on the Soviets as that leaves Germany badly screwed, even if they don't fear the western powers stabbing them in the back at some point.
There was a lot of resentment over the continuation of the blockade after 11-11-18 OTL because of the hardships resulting, although in part that was because Germany was unwilling to use its own merchant fleet to import food from elsewhere and the western powers were similarly unwilling to allow their own MS to do such a role while only an armistice was in place. As such doing this again post some armistice after a limited German defeat is likely to be propaganda for hard liners opposed to any concessions to the allies.
This might be different if the blockade ended and presumably a formal peace was agreed. However what might be the basis for such a German agreement to support Polish claims? There's the possibility that German might only pay lip service to such a commitment - although this has the possible problem of Stalin occupying western Poland and bordering Germany along a longer border. Or since the Germans if they make a serious commitment would have more and better military forces than Poland so they could potentially back-stab the Poles at the end of a successful war with Stalin and take over Poland again as well as possibly a sizeable chunk of the SU.
If the proposal is a 4 power [Britain, France, Germany and Poland] demand to Stalin to return the lost lands then this might work, although if he calls their bluff you potentially have a fairly unstable coalition with fears of back-stabbing prominent.
I don't know if that's relevant in this case as we're not suggesting Poland annexing vast areas of eastern Germany - i.e. Pomerania and Silesia and a chunk of E Prussia. You might see some forced moves from the German minority in the corridor, especially given the brutality of the German occupation but that would be about it.
Or are you talking about the German minority in the Czech republic? That might be an issue again after the annexation there and checking there were about 3 million Germans in the region.
Yeah, Britain and France don't have the appetite to force a brutal peace treaty on Germany; the best that they can probably hope for without a total German defeat is a restoration of the status quo ante bellum. Also, there is no way that Germany is willing to give up the Sudetenland short of a total German defeat; the rest of Czechia might be negotiable, though--for instance, Germany might be willing to withdraw from it if it is allowed to keep Danzig.
IIRC the allied demands was for the restoration of the Czech republic as well as Poland and they would want to insist on at least the Czech majority lands, but their pretty damned defenceless without the Sudetenland so a lot would depend on the circumstances of the allied victory over Germany. You would need the western powers, if they allowed Germany to keep the Sudetenland, to have guarantees and/or a lot of trust in the new German government over this, which might be lacking.
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mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Sept 20, 2018 15:53:19 GMT
What happens to Slovakia? forced by Czechia to submit to them?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 20, 2018 16:01:10 GMT
What happens to Slovakia? forced by Czechia to submit to them?
I suspect that in the circumstances it would be allowed to remain an independent - albeit fascist dictatorship - state.
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