futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 31, 2018 19:22:31 GMT
If Germany and Russia would have allied with each other in, say, 1890, what would the borders of both of these countries have looked like after both of them would have been finished with their territorial expansion?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 31, 2018 20:53:02 GMT
If Germany and Russia would have allied with each other in, say, 1890, what would the borders of both of these countries have looked like after both of them would have been finished with their territorial expansion?
It depends on a hell of a lot of variables. Including how quickly the German government drops Bismarch's policy of retaining stability in Europe rather than further wars of expansion. Also how long such an alliance would last as neither would be willing to accept the other as the dominant partner for long.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Aug 31, 2018 22:19:48 GMT
If Germany and Russia would have allied with each other in, say, 1890, what would the borders of both of these countries have looked like after both of them would have been finished with their territorial expansion?
It depends on a hell of a lot of variables. Including how quickly the German government drops Bismarch's policy of retaining stability in Europe rather than further wars of expansion. Also how long such an alliance would last as neither would be willing to accept the other as the dominant partner for long.
I was thinking of having German Kaiser Wilhelm II become a Pan-German nationalist in this scenario and thus drop Bismarck's policy of "no further expansion" as quickly as possible. Also, sure, there would be German-Russian tensions. However, an German-Russian alliance has a lot to offer both sides. Germany can complete the process of German unification by annexing Austria, the Sudetenland, and Czechia while Russia can acquire Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia and also expand in other directions--such as in the direction of the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Afghanistan, and China.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 1, 2018 11:04:48 GMT
It depends on a hell of a lot of variables. Including how quickly the German government drops Bismarch's policy of retaining stability in Europe rather than further wars of expansion. Also how long such an alliance would last as neither would be willing to accept the other as the dominant partner for long.
I was thinking of having German Kaiser Wilhelm II become a Pan-German nationalist in this scenario and thus drop Bismarck's policy of "no further expansion" as quickly as possible. Also, sure, there would be German-Russian tensions. However, an German-Russian alliance has a lot to offer both sides. Germany can complete the process of German unification by annexing Austria, the Sudetenland, and Czechia while Russia can acquire Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia and also expand in other directions--such as in the direction of the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Afghanistan, and China.
I think he pretty much was. Hence he preferred allying with the German led Hapsburg empire rather than the Slavic empire. Going the other way and seeking to destroy the Hapsburg empire would boost direct strength of imperial Germany but lose German dominance of a lot of the rest of the Hapsburg empire. [Which he might be willing to accept in return for a longer alliance with Russia but that was alien to the pan-German stance really]. Also either those German lands are absorbed into imperial Germany with an Hapsburg monarch, in which case it might develop as a powerful internal rival to the Prussian dynasty or removing it, which is likely to cause concern in the other German monarchies inside the empire.
Once Imperial Germany has absorbed those lands it doesn't really have much in the way of further expansion options inside Europe unless it tries to annex further lands from France or Italy. The former is going to be difficult and the latter would alienate Italy and gain some deeply unwilling subjects. Russia on the other hand has plenty of options for expansion and as it catches up [albeit slowly probably] with Germany in industrialisation it is likely to be unwilling to stay a junior partner while Berlin will increasingly see Russia as the greatest threat to Germany.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Sept 1, 2018 11:47:30 GMT
Well, in opposition to the "strange" picture of imperial germany, in such situation i see germany do not grow at all. Some lack the understanding that imperial germany was saturated after 1871. They had no desire for any other area, they would like german speaking minorities beeing proteced or even treated "superior", but in such scenario AH will be the brave second to germany, because they have no hope to survive in a conflict.
This has huge positive butterflies. Serbia does nothing. If germany and russia have agreed to zones of influence any hope of such "minor" states to start troubles for their own interests will be ended quickly. Think about serbia facing germany AND russia if they try to kill Franz Ferdinand. If the russian ambassador explain slowly how the former serbian politicans get slaughtered, their families get the chance to dig some canals in say northeastern sibiria such things will die. It would be basically a "cold-war" analogy, just 50-60 years earlier.
So in europe you have peace. If some problems start, germany and russia check if they could be solved, if they are foreign "motivated" (better prey that france or UK are NOT involved, otherwise both would face significant punishment) or not.
Extremists around the world would be unhappy - they get no large nation to support em, france will do nothing or get wiped out, even UK will think twice, because if germany with allies and russia with allies start a war against UK even sealion could be a cakewalk...
Ironically in europe you cement peace. No war... not even the most stupid british (churchill) or french (who ever is president) politican would think about a war with this alliance. It is untouchable.
UK will face problems in the near of india, japan could prepare to learn russian, because if they try to expand they will get a russian occupation force...
germany would not gain colonies (they had no real interest in MORE colonies after 1900), but they would build up what they have.
In such scenario even a strong defence system (the german "maginot"-line) could happen, to reduce the need of a large army.
The only problem i could see is, if in both countries the rebellious (say socialists and more extremist "communists") would try to take over. Otherwise it is peace.
The USA will say out, but would do deals. If the british are no longer the ones who promise money, the USA will turn to the big block, i think latest around 1920-30. Then you have - in the best case scenario - the big three ruling the world, with UK and france building a block of "neutrals", with italy.
The osmans would either be in the german camp or russia and germany would share them. The typical scenario would be some german puppet on an osman throne and larger osman areas end in russian hands... maybe even persia is shared between both, again as usual some rebellion (financed by russia and/or germany) and in the aftermatch a separation...
british interests will vanish, because the big two rule by power... the great game on steroids with one side having all advantages, the other is the british empire.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 1, 2018 18:15:40 GMT
Well, in opposition to the "strange" picture of imperial germany, in such situation i see germany do not grow at all. Some lack the understanding that imperial germany was saturated after 1871. They had no desire for any other area, they would like german speaking minorities beeing proteced or even treated "superior", but in such scenario AH will be the brave second to germany, because they have no hope to survive in a conflict. This has huge positive butterflies. Serbia does nothing. If germany and russia have agreed to zones of influence any hope of such "minor" states to start troubles for their own interests will be ended quickly. Think about serbia facing germany AND russia if they try to kill Franz Ferdinand. If the russian ambassador explain slowly how the former serbian politicans get slaughtered, their families get the chance to dig some canals in say northeastern sibiria such things will die. It would be basically a "cold-war" analogy, just 50-60 years earlier. So in europe you have peace. If some problems start, germany and russia check if they could be solved, if they are foreign "motivated" (better prey that france or UK are NOT involved, otherwise both would face significant punishment) or not. Extremists around the world would be unhappy - they get no large nation to support em, france will do nothing or get wiped out, even UK will think twice, because if germany with allies and russia with allies start a war against UK even sealion could be a cakewalk... Ironically in europe you cement peace. No war... not even the most stupid british (churchill) or french (who ever is president) politican would think about a war with this alliance. It is untouchable. UK will face problems in the near of india, japan could prepare to learn russian, because if they try to expand they will get a russian occupation force... germany would not gain colonies (they had no real interest in MORE colonies after 1900), but they would build up what they have. In such scenario even a strong defence system (the german "maginot"-line) could happen, to reduce the need of a large army. The only problem i could see is, if in both countries the rebellious (say socialists and more extremist "communists") would try to take over. Otherwise it is peace. The USA will say out, but would do deals. If the british are no longer the ones who promise money, the USA will turn to the big block, i think latest around 1920-30. Then you have - in the best case scenario - the big three ruling the world, with UK and france building a block of "neutrals", with italy. The osmans would either be in the german camp or russia and germany would share them. The typical scenario would be some german puppet on an osman throne and larger osman areas end in russian hands... maybe even persia is shared between both, again as usual some rebellion (financed by russia and/or germany) and in the aftermatch a separation... british interests will vanish, because the big two rule by power... the great game on steroids with one side having all advantages, the other is the british empire.
What you say actually has nothing to do with what's been discussed here??
As others have said Germany does expand by absorbing the German majority lands [and some others] of the Hapsburg empire - which as I stated is a difference from Bismarck's viewpoint but not Wilhelm's. However after that it doesn't have any great options, other than forcible conquest of smaller near neighbours, such as Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, which is a reason why such an alliance is unstable. Also its unlikely to bring any lasting peace to Europe as attempts by the two to expand by military means will prompt defensive alliances against them. Which despite your conclusions is [fortunately for Europe] not an hopeless position. The destruction of the Hapsburg empire in itself would destablish much of the Danubian basin. Russian desires for expansion will cause conflict, whether supported by Germany or not is also going to cause conflict. .
If Germany decides to maintain the Hapsburg empire as is then there may still be a triple alliance but there would be tension between the members, also its not what fururist is assuming. As long as this alliance stays its likely to prevent a continental great war but your probably going to see clashes over Russian expansion in the Balkans and Asia.
Russia will not accept German control of the straits, at least not in anything but the shortest period as its too important for them economically and politically. Not to mention that the Turks aren't going to be happy being anyone's puppet and are unlikely to be friendly to a Germany allied to Russia.
As we all know Germany had interests in overseas colonies after 1914 so I very much doubt it would be different here.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Sept 2, 2018 18:02:14 GMT
Well, in opposition to the "strange" picture of imperial germany, in such situation i see germany do not grow at all. Some lack the understanding that imperial germany was saturated after 1871. They had no desire for any other area, they would like german speaking minorities beeing proteced or even treated "superior", but in such scenario AH will be the brave second to germany, because they have no hope to survive in a conflict. This has huge positive butterflies. Serbia does nothing. If germany and russia have agreed to zones of influence any hope of such "minor" states to start troubles for their own interests will be ended quickly. Think about serbia facing germany AND russia if they try to kill Franz Ferdinand. If the russian ambassador explain slowly how the former serbian politicans get slaughtered, their families get the chance to dig some canals in say northeastern sibiria such things will die. It would be basically a "cold-war" analogy, just 50-60 years earlier. So in europe you have peace. If some problems start, germany and russia check if they could be solved, if they are foreign "motivated" (better prey that france or UK are NOT involved, otherwise both would face significant punishment) or not. Extremists around the world would be unhappy - they get no large nation to support em, france will do nothing or get wiped out, even UK will think twice, because if germany with allies and russia with allies start a war against UK even sealion could be a cakewalk... Ironically in europe you cement peace. No war... not even the most stupid british (churchill) or french (who ever is president) politican would think about a war with this alliance. It is untouchable. UK will face problems in the near of india, japan could prepare to learn russian, because if they try to expand they will get a russian occupation force... germany would not gain colonies (they had no real interest in MORE colonies after 1900), but they would build up what they have. In such scenario even a strong defence system (the german "maginot"-line) could happen, to reduce the need of a large army. The only problem i could see is, if in both countries the rebellious (say socialists and more extremist "communists") would try to take over. Otherwise it is peace. The USA will say out, but would do deals. If the british are no longer the ones who promise money, the USA will turn to the big block, i think latest around 1920-30. Then you have - in the best case scenario - the big three ruling the world, with UK and france building a block of "neutrals", with italy. The osmans would either be in the german camp or russia and germany would share them. The typical scenario would be some german puppet on an osman throne and larger osman areas end in russian hands... maybe even persia is shared between both, again as usual some rebellion (financed by russia and/or germany) and in the aftermatch a separation... british interests will vanish, because the big two rule by power... the great game on steroids with one side having all advantages, the other is the british empire.
What you say actually has nothing to do with what's been discussed here??
As others have said Germany does expand by absorbing the German majority lands [and some others] of the Hapsburg empire - which as I stated is a difference from Bismarck's viewpoint but not Wilhelm's. However after that it doesn't have any great options, other than forcible conquest of smaller near neighbours, such as Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, which is a reason why such an alliance is unstable. Also its unlikely to bring any lasting peace to Europe as attempts by the two to expand by military means will prompt defensive alliances against them. Which despite your conclusions is [fortunately for Europe] not an hopeless position. The destruction of the Hapsburg empire in itself would destablish much of the Danubian basin. Russian desires for expansion will cause conflict, whether supported by Germany or not is also going to cause conflict. .
If Germany decides to maintain the Hapsburg empire as is then there may still be a triple alliance but there would be tension between the members, also its not what fururist is assuming. As long as this alliance stays its likely to prevent a continental great war but your probably going to see clashes over Russian expansion in the Balkans and Asia.
Russia will not accept German control of the straits, at least not in anything but the shortest period as its too important for them economically and politically. Not to mention that the Turks aren't going to be happy being anyone's puppet and are unlikely to be friendly to a Germany allied to Russia.
As we all know Germany had interests in overseas colonies after 1914 so I very much doubt it would be different here.
Nope, the question was what would such german-russian-alliance (as it existed! till 1890) do! It is your fantasy that include a german grab of european land... i told you once and i told you now - it is okay to have a (negative) opinion, but it would be nice to feed it with facts. Germany after 1871 was finished with "land grab"... the plot start in 1890, long after Wilhelm I thought about territorital "interests" in AH-areas. OTL germany had zero interest in european ground... they had chances to do so - say in 1905 with russia in revolution, they did not strike. They also did not enlarge their army or spent much money per head for their army... ironically they should have do so from 1890 on and they could have easily beat france and russia. So what is your evidence for all the stuff you repeat? Esp., in the colonies there was no conflict after the areas were shared. We know that there existed talks about buying TOGETHER with the british portoguiese colonies, that isn´t some land grab in the common sense. So, bring evidence for what you claim is facts - and me saying that you repeat just silly lies of the british propaganda units of world war 1. You claimed such nonsenses like "insulting my country". You should teach yourself one or 100.000.000 lessons about that, if you take it serious. in no situation ever OTL the germans pre-ww1 had ever a "plan" to conquer belgium denmark or the netherlands as an opportunistic strike. There existed the Schlieffen-Plan, that included in a war with russia and france a move through the netherlands with armies that did not exist and that was a "plan-spiel", but never a political serious plan. Even in 1914 the germans were as stupid to think that belgium would stay away if the german armies move through the country to crush - yes - france in case of war. That was stupid and utterly wrong, but even in that scenario they had no plans to "conquer" belgium. Some idiots allways have an extreme opinion - would you say that the Kauffmann-plan was a serious allied plan to mass castrate and kill 30 million german males? Yes? No, if germany and russia had stood together in an alliance NO war in europe had happened. the idea of "evil russians allways invade the straits" is some pet-idea of empire-loving people around all alternate-history-forums. Naturally the russians wanted the liberty to unify their fleets, naturally the dardanelles were a problem for them. But in the described scenario the russians could use political influence from germany, that is also allied with the osmans and the austrian-hungarians to allow the russians to move their naval units "at will". That would be bad for the british empire - but i couldn´t care less about them in my thinking about what these two would do. Infact i can only repeat that such alliance end any larger and brutal war... france would do exactly nothing - so no need for a large and expensive german army. They allways know they could destroy a french agressive war... that is a good thing. UK also has to behave - that is even more important, overall you could see an earlier crash on colonialism, because russia had none, germany had some that weren´t producing money... so the moment the russians could help the suppressed and enslaved natives in india to get rid of the british tyranny, the whole "empire"-stuff will fell appart. Not because germany or others would want it to happen but because it is the evidence that you can get rid of tyranny... Also i answered the question of another user. If you want to "show failures", bring evidences... sometimes on person make mistakes, so it is good to discuss things that are not in the others person focus. Here - no such evidences are brought.. just another opinion. That is fine, but irrelevant
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Sept 3, 2018 2:31:57 GMT
If Austria-Hungary continues to stumble along and then collapses I can see the Germans and the Russians slowly carving the former Empire plus the rest of the Balkans into areas of influence.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 3, 2018 8:55:35 GMT
If Austria-Hungary continues to stumble along and then collapses I can see the Germans and the Russians slowly carving the former Empire plus the rest of the Balkans into areas of influence.
There's a good chance of this but that might in itself trigger a major conflict. If Germany has selected Russia rather than Austria as its ally then Austria is likely to feel very threatened and isolated and look for allies. Would very likely include France and probably also Britain at some point as a Russia supported by Germany is likely to be a serious threat. Not saying that Austria could be easily defended as that's unlikely, especially as Italy would be likely to side with Germany/Russia but the destruction of an important ally would be a line that its allies would have to oppose by any means, including war.
Alternatively if it lasts until Franz Joseph dies then the chance of reform, especially spurred on by the threat from its northern neighbours is good. Would still be very vulnerable to an overwhelming attack but could survive and possibly even prosper if not attacked.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 1:04:02 GMT
Well, in opposition to the "strange" picture of imperial germany, in such situation i see germany do not grow at all. Some lack the understanding that imperial germany was saturated after 1871. They had no desire for any other area, they would like german speaking minorities beeing proteced or even treated "superior", but in such scenario AH will be the brave second to germany, because they have no hope to survive in a conflict. This has huge positive butterflies. Serbia does nothing. If germany and russia have agreed to zones of influence any hope of such "minor" states to start troubles for their own interests will be ended quickly. Think about serbia facing germany AND russia if they try to kill Franz Ferdinand. If the russian ambassador explain slowly how the former serbian politicans get slaughtered, their families get the chance to dig some canals in say northeastern sibiria such things will die. It would be basically a "cold-war" analogy, just 50-60 years earlier. So in europe you have peace. If some problems start, germany and russia check if they could be solved, if they are foreign "motivated" (better prey that france or UK are NOT involved, otherwise both would face significant punishment) or not. Extremists around the world would be unhappy - they get no large nation to support em, france will do nothing or get wiped out, even UK will think twice, because if germany with allies and russia with allies start a war against UK even sealion could be a cakewalk... Ironically in europe you cement peace. No war... not even the most stupid british (churchill) or french (who ever is president) politican would think about a war with this alliance. It is untouchable. UK will face problems in the near of india, japan could prepare to learn russian, because if they try to expand they will get a russian occupation force... germany would not gain colonies (they had no real interest in MORE colonies after 1900), but they would build up what they have. In such scenario even a strong defence system (the german "maginot"-line) could happen, to reduce the need of a large army. The only problem i could see is, if in both countries the rebellious (say socialists and more extremist "communists") would try to take over. Otherwise it is peace. The USA will say out, but would do deals. If the british are no longer the ones who promise money, the USA will turn to the big block, i think latest around 1920-30. Then you have - in the best case scenario - the big three ruling the world, with UK and france building a block of "neutrals", with italy. The osmans would either be in the german camp or russia and germany would share them. The typical scenario would be some german puppet on an osman throne and larger osman areas end in russian hands... maybe even persia is shared between both, again as usual some rebellion (financed by russia and/or germany) and in the aftermatch a separation... british interests will vanish, because the big two rule by power... the great game on steroids with one side having all advantages, the other is the british empire. I want to make a point here--short of a personality change on the part of German Kaiser Wilhelm II (which is possible in this scenario), there isn't much of an incentive for Germany to actually ally with Russia. Allying with Russia makes sense if Germany actually wants to complete the German unification process (which, again, is possible if Kaiser Bill has a personality change). However, if Germany doesn't want to partition Austria-Hungary, it doesn't really make sense for Germany to ally with Russia. After all, a German alliance with Russia isn't really necessary to keep the peace in Europe; after all, Germany could have pursued a peaceful policy even during the July Crisis of 1914 in real life. Plus, Germany would end up being the junior partner in any alliance with Russia in the long(er)-run--though this could also be true if Germany allies with Britain and the British Empire instead of Russia.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 1:14:47 GMT
I was thinking of having German Kaiser Wilhelm II become a Pan-German nationalist in this scenario and thus drop Bismarck's policy of "no further expansion" as quickly as possible. Also, sure, there would be German-Russian tensions. However, an German-Russian alliance has a lot to offer both sides. Germany can complete the process of German unification by annexing Austria, the Sudetenland, and Czechia while Russia can acquire Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia and also expand in other directions--such as in the direction of the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Afghanistan, and China.
I think he pretty much was. Hence he preferred allying with the German led Hapsburg empire rather than the Slavic empire. Going the other way and seeking to destroy the Hapsburg empire would boost direct strength of imperial Germany but lose German dominance of a lot of the rest of the Hapsburg empire. [Which he might be willing to accept in return for a longer alliance with Russia but that was alien to the pan-German stance really]. Also either those German lands are absorbed into imperial Germany with an Hapsburg monarch, in which case it might develop as a powerful internal rival to the Prussian dynasty or removing it, which is likely to cause concern in the other German monarchies inside the empire.
Once Imperial Germany has absorbed those lands it doesn't really have much in the way of further expansion options inside Europe unless it tries to annex further lands from France or Italy. The former is going to be difficult and the latter would alienate Italy and gain some deeply unwilling subjects. Russia on the other hand has plenty of options for expansion and as it catches up [albeit slowly probably] with Germany in industrialisation it is likely to be unwilling to stay a junior partner while Berlin will increasingly see Russia as the greatest threat to Germany.
Yeah, I suspect that there was a Pan-German element to Wilhelm II's thinking in real life--with the idea of two German-ruled powers serving as hegemons in Central Europe. Of course, the downside of this approach is that Austria-Hungary is harder to control than a smaller country would be. In turn, what I am thinking of here is Kaiser Bill--perhaps as a result of a personality change triggered by a severe head injury--decides to partition Austria-Hungary together with Russia, Serbia, and Romania. Basically, the logic behind this is quite simple--in addition to boosting Germany's military power (after all, an independent Austria-Hungary could make a separate peace in the event of a future war--something which Germany would want to avoid), Germany could also force Hungary and Romania to ally with it. After all, Hungary would probably desire to reacquire Slovakia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia (which would have likely been lost to Russia in a partition of Austria-Hungary) and Romania would like to acquire Bessarabia from Russia. Thus, instead of having a large ally in Austria-Hungary, Germany would be larger and have smaller, more easily controllable allies in Hungary and Romania. As for the Habsburg Crown, a lot might depend on whether or not Kaiser Bill is able to acquire a loyalty oath or something of that sort from the Habsburg monarch. I do agree that, even with a personality change in Kaiser Bill, Germany doesn't have a lot of expansion options beyond Austria-Hungary. I mean, it could expand further into France--which is possible in the event that Russia is allied with Germany--but other than the iron ore of Briey and Longwy, I'm not sure that further expansion into France would provide anything meaningful for Germany. Briey and Longwy in themselves could be enough to trigger a German-French war, though. As for Italy, agreed that Germany would be unlikely to expand in Italy's direction in this scenario. As for Russia, I don't think that even a very powerful Russia would actually be a significant threat to Germany. I mean, sure, it's going to be calling the shots in its alliance with Germany, but Germany doesn't really have many territories that Russia would want. After all, the Memelland is very small and Posen, the Polish Corridor, and Upper Silesia are full of Poles--who are a huge pain in the butt for Russia already. As for East Prussia and Danzig, they're both full of Germans--and I don't think that Russia would want to have German-majority territories inside of its empire. Thus, regardless of just how powerful Russia will become, the German-Russian alliance should be safe if both sides will desire to continue it.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 20, 2018 15:33:45 GMT
futurist
Replying to your last two posts.
a) I doubt Britain would be such a dominant power in an Anglo-German alliance simply because of the population and industrial edge of the German lands. Britain has a very large empire but in many ways, because of the need to defend it and trade routes it is often as much a weakness as a strength.
b) If Germany went for seizing the German parts of Austria [plus Bohemia] and also a continued alliance with Russia then it would be stable for a while. However instead of one moderately strong ally this does leave Germany with a number of smaller ones, who often have conflicting interests - for instance Hungary and both Romania and Serbia. It might still be a stronger position for Germany than OTL, although its likely to ensure a Franco-Italian-Ottoman alliance backed by Britain. [Primarily for defensive purposes rather than any serious offensive plans.]
c) Also because of its sheer size and rapidly growing population Russia is sooner or later almost certain to become more powerful than Germany in simple military terms if not also economic ones. Does Germany accept a junior status in the alliance or seek to build the sort of anti-Russian alliance you suggest with smaller powers. In the latter case does this mean war with Russia and possibly also a Franco-Italian bloc?
d) While with the advantage of hindsight there are reasons why Russia might not want to expand at German expense this was not anything like as clear at the time. Pan-Slavic sentiment was important at times in the Russian imperial court and there were still Slavs [Poles and Czechs] under German rule and other Slavs under Hungarian rule. The Russian empire had a lot of minorities and a steady, if often not very effective programme of Russification as well as a very rapid rate of population growth. Plus it would want to control the Constantinople straits at least which would mean expanding through or dominating at least Romania and Bulgaria which could be seen as a threat to German interests, whether in terms of possibly lumbering them with an unwanted general war or of Russian expansion meaning their bordering more of the German allies and their own border in the SE. Not saying this will inevitable lead to war but along with point c) it means any alliance would have tensions at least.
Hope this helps?
Steve
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