Post by eurofed on Aug 22, 2018 21:53:25 GMT
Let's assume that with the right combination of dynastic, political, military, and diplomatic events occurring sometime between the 16th century and the 18th century (I keep the PoD fuzzy because it probably includes dynastic variables, which I find confusing and hard to manage), the HRE and Europe at large get reorganized in the following way from OTL: A strong state arose in northern Germany to replace OTL Prussia, it absorbed Brandenburg, Pomerania, Saxony, Silesia, Bohemia-Moravia, and Rhineland-Westphalia. Brandenburg-Saxony-Bohemia (BSB for short) formed a personal union with Denmark-Norway. Ruling dynasty of this state may vary (e.g. the Hohenzollern, a branch of the Wettin, the Oldenburg) but for simplicity let's assume it is the House of Oldenburg due to the personal union. BSB never got or was much interested in Prussia, which was absorbed by Poland instead. Sweden won the equivalent of the Great Northern War and kept its Empire. Poland might survive and evolve in a sufficiently strong state or be partitioned like OTL, in the latter case Sweden took Prussia and part of the OTL Prussian partition and Russia got the rest. In the case Poland survives, the House of Wettin might keep its throne but it loses any personal-union ties with the German states. Austria lost the lands of the Bohemian Crown and the Burgundian inheritance but got Old Bavaria, part or most of Switzerland (at the very least Ticino and Grisons, quite possibly most of the Old Swiss Confederacy), Bosnia, Serbia, Wallachia, and most of North Italy (Lombardy, Venetia, Parma, Modena, Tuscany, the Legations). A Kingdom of Burgundy formed (ruling dynasty may vary, such as the Wittelsbach, a branch of the Habsburg, or even survival and success of the House of Valois-Burgundy) to include the Low Countries (the Dutch Revolt never occurred or failed), Alsace, Lorraine, Palatinate, and perhaps even Franche-Comte.
The HRE got an extensive territorial and political reorganization with mediatization of the minor states and secularization of the ecclesiastical principalities that made it rather similar to the German Confederation plus the Emperor. A few major states arose and an handful of Imperial cities survived to span the vast majority of the German lands: DN-BSB, Mecklenburg, Oldenburg, Hanover, Hesse, a Thuringian-Franconian state (ruling House may vary, perhaps a branch of the Wettin), Austria, Wurttenberg, Baden, perhaps Burgundy too. France almost completely failed in its centuries-long effort to expand beyond its 16th century borders in the Low Countries, Germany, and Italy, or to put a Capet king on the throne of Spain (perhaps the religious wars wrecked it much worse than OTL); at the very most it might have been able to grab the Duchy and County of Burgundy and Romandy. If Burgundy lost those lands it stayed a member state of the HRE, if it got them it may have gone fully independent, in any case it kept France at bay; if things went really well for them, Burgundy may even get Champagne. BSB, Austria, Hanover (it may or may not be in a personal union with Britain), Thuringia, Hesse, Wurttenberg, and Burgundy (if it stays a German state; if not, Mecklenburg replaces it) are the Electorates of the HRE. BSB, Austria, and possibly Hanover and Burgundy have the dignity of Kingdoms thanks to their ownership of non-Imperial lands (the Kingdom status of Bohemia was abolished).
Spain kept control of Portugal (the Portuguese Revolt failed or never occurred like the Catalan one) and South Italy. It may or may not been able to entirely avoid its decline, but in any case it was somewhat less brutal than OTL. Spain was able to colonize a sizable portion of Northwestern Africa. its ruling dynasty may vary (e.g. successful Aviz-Trastamara, revitalized Habsburg) but in any case it avoided the damage and losses of the War of Spanish Succession. Sardinia-Piedmont absorbed Genoa, Corsica, and a portion of Switzerland and became an uneasy buffer between France, Austrian North Italy, and Spanish South Italy together with the shrunken Papal States. The Pope at most only kept Latium, Umbria, and Marche, but it might even be only Latium instead if Austria and/or Spain felt especially greedy. Russia got Moldavia. The Ottoman Empire underwent a much accelerated decay process and was entirely unable to stop Spanish expansion in North Africa or Austro-Russian expansion in the Balkans. It may or may not even suffer near-complete partition at the hands of Austria, Russia, and Spain. Britain arose much like OTL, give or take a few decades, although its ruling dynasty may vary and equivalents of the Civil War, the Glorious Revolution, and the personal union with Hanover may or may not occur.
Outside Europe, notable divergencies included Canada being colonized by British settlers, and France instead colonizing Southern North America, from South Carolina and Georgia to Lower Louisiana, although the French later lost it to Britain in an equivalent of the French and Indian War. Moreover, the Toyotomi crushed the Tokugawa, were successful in their bid to conquer and assimilate Korea, and turned Japan into a strong, dynamic, expansionist empire that strives to keep pace with the European powers. The Ming underwent accelerated decline and collapsed to a combined Manchu-Japanese assault. The struggle to divide the spoils between the victors ended with the Manchu in control of China and Japan in control of Korea and Manchuria. Equivalents of the American and French Revolutions may or may not happen: if the ARW happens, the USA arises much as usual and includes the Canadian and Northern colonies. The Southern colonies may or may not join the American equivalent or become a Southern equivalent of Canada. If the American Revolution does occur, its example triggers a process that leads to the independence of the Spanish colonies . If the French Revolution does happen, the subsequent Revolutionary Wars ultimately leave the territorial settlement of Europe largely unchanged from the above, except perhaps for some minor political reorganization and consolidation. It is entirely possible the equivalent of the French Revolution instead occurs in some other European great power instead, but the final outcome for Europe does not change much.
You are welcome to discuss the ways this scenario may take place, its unmentioned effects, and long-term consequences. However, please comment only if you are honestly able and willing to provide a constructive and helpful contribution to the scenario.
The HRE got an extensive territorial and political reorganization with mediatization of the minor states and secularization of the ecclesiastical principalities that made it rather similar to the German Confederation plus the Emperor. A few major states arose and an handful of Imperial cities survived to span the vast majority of the German lands: DN-BSB, Mecklenburg, Oldenburg, Hanover, Hesse, a Thuringian-Franconian state (ruling House may vary, perhaps a branch of the Wettin), Austria, Wurttenberg, Baden, perhaps Burgundy too. France almost completely failed in its centuries-long effort to expand beyond its 16th century borders in the Low Countries, Germany, and Italy, or to put a Capet king on the throne of Spain (perhaps the religious wars wrecked it much worse than OTL); at the very most it might have been able to grab the Duchy and County of Burgundy and Romandy. If Burgundy lost those lands it stayed a member state of the HRE, if it got them it may have gone fully independent, in any case it kept France at bay; if things went really well for them, Burgundy may even get Champagne. BSB, Austria, Hanover (it may or may not be in a personal union with Britain), Thuringia, Hesse, Wurttenberg, and Burgundy (if it stays a German state; if not, Mecklenburg replaces it) are the Electorates of the HRE. BSB, Austria, and possibly Hanover and Burgundy have the dignity of Kingdoms thanks to their ownership of non-Imperial lands (the Kingdom status of Bohemia was abolished).
Spain kept control of Portugal (the Portuguese Revolt failed or never occurred like the Catalan one) and South Italy. It may or may not been able to entirely avoid its decline, but in any case it was somewhat less brutal than OTL. Spain was able to colonize a sizable portion of Northwestern Africa. its ruling dynasty may vary (e.g. successful Aviz-Trastamara, revitalized Habsburg) but in any case it avoided the damage and losses of the War of Spanish Succession. Sardinia-Piedmont absorbed Genoa, Corsica, and a portion of Switzerland and became an uneasy buffer between France, Austrian North Italy, and Spanish South Italy together with the shrunken Papal States. The Pope at most only kept Latium, Umbria, and Marche, but it might even be only Latium instead if Austria and/or Spain felt especially greedy. Russia got Moldavia. The Ottoman Empire underwent a much accelerated decay process and was entirely unable to stop Spanish expansion in North Africa or Austro-Russian expansion in the Balkans. It may or may not even suffer near-complete partition at the hands of Austria, Russia, and Spain. Britain arose much like OTL, give or take a few decades, although its ruling dynasty may vary and equivalents of the Civil War, the Glorious Revolution, and the personal union with Hanover may or may not occur.
Outside Europe, notable divergencies included Canada being colonized by British settlers, and France instead colonizing Southern North America, from South Carolina and Georgia to Lower Louisiana, although the French later lost it to Britain in an equivalent of the French and Indian War. Moreover, the Toyotomi crushed the Tokugawa, were successful in their bid to conquer and assimilate Korea, and turned Japan into a strong, dynamic, expansionist empire that strives to keep pace with the European powers. The Ming underwent accelerated decline and collapsed to a combined Manchu-Japanese assault. The struggle to divide the spoils between the victors ended with the Manchu in control of China and Japan in control of Korea and Manchuria. Equivalents of the American and French Revolutions may or may not happen: if the ARW happens, the USA arises much as usual and includes the Canadian and Northern colonies. The Southern colonies may or may not join the American equivalent or become a Southern equivalent of Canada. If the American Revolution does occur, its example triggers a process that leads to the independence of the Spanish colonies . If the French Revolution does happen, the subsequent Revolutionary Wars ultimately leave the territorial settlement of Europe largely unchanged from the above, except perhaps for some minor political reorganization and consolidation. It is entirely possible the equivalent of the French Revolution instead occurs in some other European great power instead, but the final outcome for Europe does not change much.
You are welcome to discuss the ways this scenario may take place, its unmentioned effects, and long-term consequences. However, please comment only if you are honestly able and willing to provide a constructive and helpful contribution to the scenario.