steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 22, 2018 20:28:08 GMT
The indian army is an unstoppable juggernaut. Just to remember, the OTL 1950 USA is no match for 2018-india, they have nukes themselves, propably H-bombs (i do not know this exactly, but for sure they know how they work, do not need to experiment about them, even 3- or 4-stage nukes are a possible! so expect indian h-bombs with 200-1000 Megatons are a possibility!)... India is the biggest democracy, but also not a place that runs for freedom. All the conflicts with pakistan (now without nukes, after a 12-18months old civil war a lot now old aged indians can remember with hate) are not forgotten. Basically India from the start is the nr.1 in everything... they will move their impressive and - with 1950-technics unstoppable navy to the oil fields in persia and iraq, remove unfriendly governments (if needed - Mossadeq could listen carefully about the evil british and americans who removed him and his democracy for the shah (some videos about it could help the indians)), so they get the needed oil on one way or the other quite early. Nobody could stop em, not the USA; not russia and for sure NOT the old british empire that is ready to fall appart now. Japan is similar, they are stellar ahead of anybody of the 1950ers, their car manufacturing industry alone could cripple the USA and all other manufacturing states Would you drive in a Lexus or some shitty 1950-sedans, Volkswagen or Austins? The nuclear powers are in the moment USA and russia (newcomer)... japan would be a quick fourth, with india the strongest nr.1. They can build easily more and stronger nukes, they will hate russia with stalin, they will hate china (as todays india is a zero friend of modern china, but they can not do much against em with all the nukes china have) Now this china is a weak and only 12 months old red menace... So i see japan and india as the big two working together, sharing the worlds oil in arabia and building weapons and high tech, including nukes. The USA is once informed to leave japan ground, if they don´t do that it could be ugly. We need really informations about the US armed forces of 2018... are they in south korea, japan and co or not? If yes, you basically have them as the most powerful armed forces, but lacking any supplies (the ones who build the technology are now hostile (Japan)... also don´t trust south korea either... they would want to reunite with north korea, but they will not want the US influence (thanks to Trump)... the 1950er USA is also no nice place for south-east asians, full of racists. To avoid 2 million deaths they take over easily the helpless north korean pup, if china start troubles the south koreans crush em merciless... in fact i see the then unified koreans take a large part of china to establish a defence zone, propably they will take the oil fields and other resource rich areas in the near. South korea also need no long time to build nukes, including missles... In short words: India take out pakistan, to pay some bills.. crushing the helpless neighbours, propably taking also bangladesh... for strategic points. They engage in a war with china (80% chance), dropping some nukes on the chinese to make a point to russia... they and japan, maybe also modern australia and south korea share the modern known oil fields...expect them buying british colonies in africa, like nigeria... i doubt australia would miss the chance to get its own oil... the1950ers are helpless.. their economy shortly will crash, at last the USA will be hit hardest, but also no german miracle, the japanese products are 100times more effective, cheaper and better... also the customer are 100% depending.. you do not sell the machinery, you allow the customers to rent em ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) 2028 i see the USA as a weak nr.5 in the world. Nr1 is India Nr2 is Japan Nr3 is South Korea Nr4 is australia maybe singapore and co are nr5, but propably it is the USA, but they have lost completly the "lead". If the indians are smart they support the blacks in the deep south, democracy and co... ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) it would be also fun if india forbid france and UK to build nukes... that picture would be great... indian delegates move to london and inform the british that they are not allowed to build weapons of mass destruction ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) What an irony of history... Japan dividing the world between itself and India Will not be possible or constructing nukes Will not be possible, its constitution specificly forbids it from possesing nukes or offensive force. This is why their military is called a "self-defence force" and not an army. Hi, we talk about an absolute changed system. Yesterday they were nr.4 or 5 in the world economoics, with the USA beeing the superpower and now they are suddenly second to none in EVERY technological area, the only competitive nation on that planet is india. Sorry if i have deep mistrust about the "we will not build nukes"-stuff, esp,. in a country that has a shrine for war criminals... Esp. if one nation (the USA) is not the nice allied nation but hateful enemy who think opress the evil slit eyes is good. We talk about 1950, 5 years since end of the pacific war. What do you think will the USA do if they lost 160.000 or more soldiers, half their pacific fleet and the broken, shattered enemy they "teach democracy" suddenly is an economic juggernaut? I think the main problem with such scenarios is, that many people (you too?) do not calculate this factor in their opinion. Do you agree that 1950-USA will be still a racistic hotbed, in that the military would think "lets nuke the sliteyes, we need their technology, call it "enlarged punishment for pearl harbor"? or would you think they would say "oh, suddenly some nation we had conquered and controlled 5 years ago is lightyears ahead in anything you could belive? Just remember, the japanese defence forces (call em as you want) are able to wipe out any US fleet who want to "take back control", right? So - how long till this Japan (who need URGENTLY oil and knows exactly were it is) would make sure it is untouchable by foreign = hostile nations? Do you really belive that modern japan would not take its chance - together with india - to controll 99% of the oil outside USA/USSR? Really? I have no such opinion, not because "evil japanese" are evil, but nations have no friends but common interests. And japan in this ASB-scenario suddenly dominate the worlds manufacturing market, with south korea (Samsung)... South Korea also dominate ship building and diesel-engine factories... why on earth should/would these countries give up this advantage? They won´t do that. South Korea is a peninsula that quickly will take out northern korea without the bloody war of OTL, propably also some "space" in china. India is a whole sub-continent, big enough and full of nukes.. untouchable nr1. Japan, a very strong extremly high educated island, that need ressources, but know exactly were these lay Australia - a ressource-rich country with another hightly educated society that could rule large parts of the world. Now, what would the governments of 2018-states do if they get the chance to "rule" and "lead"? What would india does? Wait till USA and russia have closed the gap? Or enlarge it and make sure that your country get incredible rich, solve the problems of your country (with the chances for US- and british oil companies OTL made profit to be switched to indian oil companies)... see the pattern? These countries will quickly - or even instant - act as every nation would do... they look for the best of THEIR people, using chances. For Japan these chances are a.) build nukes - to make sure that the USA of 1950 don´t nuke you b.) build missles - so you can end any US threat by explaining them that you nuke them, too. c.) dominate the car manufacturing system on this planet - forcing e.g. USA to open the market (or otherwise nuke the east coast) is something hard, but i doubt the japanese politicans really have morale problems, if needed. They had seen at Trump that power and force could bring you into a beneficial situation. So why not do it yourself? For India: - insult great britian, these "arrogance criminals" who still think they should rule india (it is 2 years since they had lost their crown jewel) - break the neck of the empire, catch lot of ressource rich areas so you could produce cheapish stuff you know you need and the rest of the world would also want to have For South korea - nukes makes you untouchable - remove the communist threat of OTL - reduce the danger of china to invade - now for ever these advantages are simple and instand understandable... the same is true for australia or singapore, but the former is depending on electronics from SK and japan, the second to small...
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 22, 2018 20:36:13 GMT
Japan dividing the world between itself and India Will not be possible or constructing nukes Will not be possible, its constitution specificly forbids it from possesing nukes or offensive force. This is why their military is called a "self-defence force" and not an army. A that is why they have ships that are called Helicopter Destroyers but who could rival any Essex class carrier the Americans have in 1950. That isn´t the real "game changer"... the technological advantage of a modern frigate with some helicopter mean that 1950er subs are dead.... the fast flying jets find any naval unit that try to near japan and will be sunk quickly... there is simply no defence against. A modern japanese aegis-destroyer is bascially a full taskforce, able to sink such task force with out starting to sweat. So, the only thing the japanese need are nukes and missles... missles to carry nukes to the USA, nuke LA and Frisco, inform the US government that you had send missles to do so and make clear that you could repeat it with every american city. That help the us government to realise that it is "game over" for them. You could do a demonstration instead of killing millions of americans... i have no clue what the japanese would do after 2-3 months, because as a caucasian i have little informations about how japanese think. People who know them (and are friends to me) say that the japanese society is - for westerners - "not understandable"... so i expect the worst (nukes been build and - with modern missles send to the USA to make a demonstration). Honestly i belive japan is peaceful, but japan need ressources, know were they are. So they will try to control them... in saudi-arabia (together with india, maybe also australia and south korea) and in africa, now still british colonies....
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 23, 2018 18:00:53 GMT
Some have suggested that Japan might initiate a nuclear program, despite their prohibition of such weapons and collective trauma from being on the receiving end.
For those who want to reverse these policies, how could they make it politically feasible to do so? And assuming that they succeed, how will Japan's nuclear arsenal and doctrine look in the 1950s world?
On an international level, how will the downtimers address the Asia-Pacific's arrival and subsequent race to become political, economic and military powers themselves--especially when they have/deign to build nukes?
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Post by eurowatch on Aug 23, 2018 20:01:01 GMT
Some have suggested that Japan might initiate a nuclear program, despite their prohibition of such weapons and collective trauma from being on the receiving end.
For those who want to reverse these policies, how could they make it politically feasible to do so? And assuming that they succeed, how will Japan's nuclear arsenal and doctrine look in the 1950s world?
On an international level, how will the downtimers address the Asia-Pacific's arrival and subsequent race to become political, economic and military powers themselves--especially when they have/deign to build nukes? The problem With a policy to reinterpertat article 9 of the constitution is that it is a very thorny issues on the best of days. It took ten years of debating before the Diet was able to reinterperate the article to be able to provide material support for its allies, can you imagine how long allowing something as controversial as nuclear weapons is going to take? So while there would certainly be a push (Japan has its right-wing groups just like every other country) it would be unlikely to yield much beside futher debates.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 25, 2018 2:17:51 GMT
Some have suggested that Japan might initiate a nuclear program, despite their prohibition of such weapons and collective trauma from being on the receiving end.
For those who want to reverse these policies, how could they make it politically feasible to do so? And assuming that they succeed, how will Japan's nuclear arsenal and doctrine look in the 1950s world?
On an international level, how will the downtimers address the Asia-Pacific's arrival and subsequent race to become political, economic and military powers themselves--especially when they have/deign to build nukes? The problem With a policy to reinterpertat article 9 of the constitution is that it is a very thorny issues on the best of days. It took ten years of debating before the Diet was able to reinterperate the article to be able to provide material support for its allies, can you imagine how long allowing something as controversial as nuclear weapons is going to take? So while there would certainly be a push (Japan has its right-wing groups just like every other country) it would be unlikely to yield much beside futher debates. Okay, then. For those Asia-Pacific who already have/likely will pursue nuclear arsenals, how might their doctrines look, and what will the downtimer world's response be?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 5:21:26 GMT
The problem With a policy to reinterpertat article 9 of the constitution is that it is a very thorny issues on the best of days. It took ten years of debating before the Diet was able to reinterperate the article to be able to provide material support for its allies, can you imagine how long allowing something as controversial as nuclear weapons is going to take? So while there would certainly be a push (Japan has its right-wing groups just like every other country) it would be unlikely to yield much beside futher debates. Okay, then. For those Asia-Pacific who already have/likely will pursue nuclear arsenals, how might their doctrines look, and what will the downtimer world's response be? Dowtime United States, United Kingdom, Soviet Union and France will be mortified that there are country’s that have more advance nuclear weapon then them.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2018 10:31:49 GMT
The problem With a policy to reinterpertat article 9 of the constitution is that it is a very thorny issues on the best of days. It took ten years of debating before the Diet was able to reinterperate the article to be able to provide material support for its allies, can you imagine how long allowing something as controversial as nuclear weapons is going to take? So while there would certainly be a push (Japan has its right-wing groups just like every other country) it would be unlikely to yield much beside futher debates. Okay, then. For those Asia-Pacific who already have/likely will pursue nuclear arsenals, how might their doctrines look, and what will the downtimer world's response be?
Of the countries affected I think only India is a nuclear power, although in most ways its now the most powerful and advanced in the world. Which will be a shock to many. If Japan doesn't go nuclear for political reasons - or even more if it did - I could see S Korea and Taiwan at least considering a nuclear deterrent and a number of other states might seek to develop one eventually as their in a region of considerable turmoil. Thinking say of Malaya, Indonesia and possibly even Singapore. Also Mao will be pushing for one ASAP when facing the potential threat from vastly more advanced new neighbours.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 10:39:04 GMT
Okay, then. For those Asia-Pacific who already have/likely will pursue nuclear arsenals, how might their doctrines look, and what will the downtimer world's response be? Of the countries affected I think only India is a nuclear power, although in most ways its now the most powerful and advanced in the world. Which will be a shock to many. If Japan doesn't go nuclear for political reasons - or even more if it did - I could see S Korea and Taiwan at least considering a nuclear deterrent and a number of other states might seek to develop one eventually as their in a region of considerable turmoil. Thinking say of Malaya, Indonesia and possibly even Singapore. Also Mao will be pushing for one ASAP when facing the potential threat from vastly more advanced new neighbours.
Taiwan was in 1950 still a member of the UN Security Council if I was corecht, they will be happy that the military gap between the PRC and then has shifted in their favor.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 25, 2018 10:45:51 GMT
Of the countries affected I think only India is a nuclear power, although in most ways its now the most powerful and advanced in the world. Which will be a shock to many. If Japan doesn't go nuclear for political reasons - or even more if it did - I could see S Korea and Taiwan at least considering a nuclear deterrent and a number of other states might seek to develop one eventually as their in a region of considerable turmoil. Thinking say of Malaya, Indonesia and possibly even Singapore. Also Mao will be pushing for one ASAP when facing the potential threat from vastly more advanced new neighbours.
Taiwan was in 1950 still a member of the UN Security Council if I was corecht, they will be happy that the military gap between the PRC and then has shifted in their favor.
Yes, very true. It was only about 1970 that they lost their formal status of the official China and TTL the relationship with the US is likely to be even stronger as the latter will want help to catch up ASAP. Mind you if N Korea still attacks the south - which seems likely - and Mao supports the north - which may be a lot less likely - you could then see a greater war with Taiwan, possibly with US support seeking to use its higher technology and greater liberalism to wage war in China itself.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 10:47:58 GMT
Taiwan was in 1950 still a member of the UN Security Council if I was corecht, they will be happy that the military gap between the PRC and then has shifted in their favor. Yes, very true. It was only about 1970 that they lost their formal status of the official China and TTL the relationship with the US is likely to be even stronger as the latter will want help to catch up ASAP. Mind you if N Korea still attacks the south - which seems likely - and Mao supports the north - which may be a lot less likely - you could then see a greater war with Taiwan, possibly with US support seeking to use its higher technology and greater liberalism to wage war in China itself.
I wonder if 2018 Taiwan has the nerve to declare full independence now they only need to worry about 1950 China.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 25, 2018 11:09:00 GMT
Yes, very true. It was only about 1970 that they lost their formal status of the official China and TTL the relationship with the US is likely to be even stronger as the latter will want help to catch up ASAP. Mind you if N Korea still attacks the south - which seems likely - and Mao supports the north - which may be a lot less likely - you could then see a greater war with Taiwan, possibly with US support seeking to use its higher technology and greater liberalism to wage war in China itself.
I wonder if 2018 Taiwan has the nerve to declare full independence now they only need to worry about 1950 China. Yes... i forgot about Taiwan. 2018-Taiwan is way to strong for red china, esp. one that will run into a desaster in korea (my bets are 99 to 1 that south korea crush red north korea, conquer it and take a large chinese area as a defence - and economic base for its industry (South korea is very dense populated. If they face war with red china they would - so my guessing - take maybe 50-150.000 sqkm in the north of the korean-chinese border... for the powerful modern korean army that is only a small problem) Beeing a member of the UN with veto right they could stop any "UN"-Mission at will ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) So a taiwanese-southkorean-alliance, that quickly will have nuclear weapons (sorry, it is - in 1950 the best way to make yourself untouchable from US and russian agressions) could be one rival for the existing oil in the world. So we have india, japan and that block. Add in Australia, that could demand leadership in the comonwealth (what an irony if UK is forced to be a dominion of australia ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) ) and we see some nice brutal wars for oil. Or the modern countries make ONE alliance, propably 2, one is india alone, the other is the others, who share the ressources in the world, build nukes, a strong fleet and - one or both will propably sink a few thousend american ships if they try to attack them. The big questionmark is the USA. They are a racist place, fully arrogant and beliving in "gods own ownership", suddenly only nr.3 or 4 in the world. They have nukes, but others are way superior in any aspects.. .the huge american fleet is obsolete... think about an indian or japanese sub that engage a Taskforce... all carriers, all battleships will be destroyed in 1h... or less. Bombers could not hope to reach the homelands (japan, india, australia), because 4-mot-B29 against Jets? Zero chance. If the modern US forces are also teleported, things are different. I prefer the other situation, with modern countries alone teleported, engaging the 1950er-countries around. IN that scenario even Singapore alone would quickly dominate the planet, but would be to vulnerable against hostile attacks. But japan, australia alone teleportet, they are strong enough. South korea, Taiwan, also. Really. some people need to understand that a single warship of 2018 could destroy a whole fleet of 1950-vintage ships... because they know were these ships are, they know how to hurt them and - with subs and jets, nothing the enemy try is succsessfull... that is so single sided, you only could throw 1000 ships against the small(er) fleet, that run out of ammo at some point. But that is so bloody, i cannot see the US navy even trying it. Would they sacrifice say 1 million sailors for destroying 4 aegis destroyer of the japanese navy? I have no clue, but the jets would crush them, long before the US fleet knows were the enemy is. US subs would be destroyed so quickly that the casulties would be brutal - 95-99% in the first hour after detection
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Post by eurowatch on Aug 25, 2018 13:51:35 GMT
Yes, very true. It was only about 1970 that they lost their formal status of the official China and TTL the relationship with the US is likely to be even stronger as the latter will want help to catch up ASAP. Mind you if N Korea still attacks the south - which seems likely - and Mao supports the north - which may be a lot less likely - you could then see a greater war with Taiwan, possibly with US support seeking to use its higher technology and greater liberalism to wage war in China itself.
I wonder if 2018 Taiwan has the nerve to declare full independence now they only need to worry about 1950 China. Taiwan won't declare itself a Sovereign nation because that would mean aknowledging that there are two Chinas, something both Taiwan and China agree on is not the case.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 25, 2018 14:06:22 GMT
I wonder if 2018 Taiwan has the nerve to declare full independence now they only need to worry about 1950 China. Taiwan won't declare itself a Sovereign nation because that would mean aknowledging that there are two Chinas, something both Taiwan and China agree on is not the case. But this is 2018 Taiwan we are speaking of.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Aug 25, 2018 14:20:38 GMT
Okay, then. For those Asia-Pacific who already have/likely will pursue nuclear arsenals, how might their doctrines look, and what will the downtimer world's response be? Dowtime United States, United Kingdom, Soviet Union and France will be mortified that there are country’s that have more advance nuclear weapon then them. The question about this is: will they try to "break" the possible hostile, at last much more powerful nations or would they accept that they are to weak in economic and military terms? With the world of 1950, esp. with India, South Korea and Japan in the lead (just because they have the largest base of people and economic and military power) and with the existing MASSIVE racism from western nations against asiatic people i fear they will try to take over the "interesting" stuff. That cause a war that will be a NASTY shock and end with the destruction of the european empires (now), with the USA got hit hard by nukes (propably 40-100 will hurt them hard), if for example UK and USA want to invade/attack india this would be the most realistic result. Japan is less dangerous, but for sure - at last my opinion - the japanese will look for nukes, to protect themselves from american or russian agression. This agression will come, because 5 years after ww2, with the loss of a few hundred thousend americans (how many were stationed on japanese ground in 1950?) with all the racism and hate - i cannot see japan "hoping" for understanding by the USA. Esp. with the japanese economy 60 years ahead of anything the USA could dream about. Personally i belive the USA would want to strike (nuclear) just to gain the knowledge the japanese have, 5 years post war they would do it with "love", if they had lost 100.000 soldiers and personal in Japan (they vanished) they will be full of "rightful" hate... the japanese could be as peaceful as hell, but they need oil and ressources (and they get em cheapish from then-former british colonies, or if they treat persia and iraq as partners, cheapish exchange of some modern (outdated 1970er) stuff for the right to exploit the oil) and they would want to be "untouchable"... the problem with nukes in the 21th century... if you have some you cannot longer be attacked or some "regime-change" could be established. For sure, 2018-japan has no interest in wars, but they also would not accept 1950er-US-racists who think they could plunder japan for the evil pacific war crimes of the imperial japanese. With India and esp, the relationship with UK, 1-2 years after independence (from the british POV) they will very sure want to punish the british empire for all the crimes these did to them. India 2018 is a very self knowing powerfull country, no "shortly got independent 3rd world"-area... they lead in computing of software, they have a VERY powerfull economy and they need ressources for their people. That is quite dangerous, esp. with UK still enslaving so many colonial areas...
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Aug 25, 2018 17:10:19 GMT
I wonder if 2018 Taiwan has the nerve to declare full independence now they only need to worry about 1950 China. Taiwan won't declare itself a Sovereign nation because that would mean aknowledging that there are two Chinas, something both Taiwan and China agree on is not the case. That's the agreement they have with modern China, though. I highly doubt that it'd be the same with its 1950s counterpart, which they would obviously oppose. steffenI doubt that the West--however lacking compared to the uptimers--is stupid enough to declare war on an Asia-Pacific 60+ years more advanced than them. If they're not crazy enough to directly engage the USSR, then surely they won't try to pick a fight with the newly arrived 2018 powers.
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