mullauna
Banned
Banned
Posts: 376
Likes: 40
|
Post by mullauna on Aug 19, 2018 11:23:08 GMT
Hindenburg dies at 81 rather than 87. It's 1928, so no Depression and Hitler won't be becoming President. I assume that that arsewipe communist Ernst T. splits the left vote again as he did in 1925 so a conservative or fellow traveler becomes President.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,985
Likes: 49,390
|
Post by lordroel on Aug 19, 2018 11:35:07 GMT
Hindenburg dies at 81 rather than 87. It's 1928, so no Depression and Hitler won't be becoming President. I assume that that arsewipe communist Ernst T. splits the left vote again as he did in 1925 so a conservative or fellow traveler becomes President. The fact that Hindenburg dies at 81 in 1928 does not mean that Hitler will not become president a couple of year latter.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,225
|
Post by stevep on Aug 19, 2018 12:48:21 GMT
Hindenburg dies at 81 rather than 87. It's 1928, so no Depression and Hitler won't be becoming President. I assume that that arsewipe communist Ernst T. splits the left vote again as he did in 1925 so a conservative or fellow traveler becomes President. The fact that Hindenburg dies at 81 in 1928 does not mean that Hitler will not become president a couple of year latter.
Possibly. The depression is still very likely to occur and that will bring major problems to the world in general and Germany in particular because its so dependent on loans from the US which will cause widespread suffering and desperation in Germany and people turning to extremes when other options are seen to have failed. Hitler may still become a minority Chancellor as OTL but without an elderly Hindenburg to die shortly afterwards he's less likely to be able to make himself President. Presuming of course whoever is President in this scenario doesn't have an unfortunate 'accident' or be 'persuaded' to resign in favour of Hitler, options which might possible considering we're talking about the Nazis here.
Of course a lot would depend on who was the President and what his policies were. Possibly it might be someone who favours the Nazis but probably more likely someone who will seek to oppose them gaining power, although like a lot of the right wing politicians of the time there is the danger he might think he can use Hitler.
Basically you could see anything from a frustrated Hitler and possibly a failed coup by the Nazis to something not massively different from OTL.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,985
Likes: 49,390
|
Post by lordroel on Aug 19, 2018 13:57:04 GMT
The fact that Hindenburg dies at 81 in 1928 does not mean that Hitler will not become president a couple of year latter. Possibly. The depression is still very likely to occur and that will bring major problems to the world in general and Germany in particular because its so dependent on loans from the US which will cause widespread suffering and desperation in Germany and people turning to extremes when other options are seen to have failed. Hitler may still become a minority Chancellor as OTL but without an elderly Hindenburg to die shortly afterwards he's less likely to be able to make himself President. Presuming of course whoever is President in this scenario doesn't have an unfortunate 'accident' or be 'persuaded' to resign in favour of Hitler, options which might possible considering we're talking about the Nazis here.
Of course a lot would depend on who was the President and what his policies were. Possibly it might be someone who favours the Nazis but probably more likely someone who will seek to oppose them gaining power, although like a lot of the right wing politicians of the time there is the danger he might think he can use Hitler.
Basically you could see anything from a frustrated Hitler and possibly a failed coup by the Nazis to something not massively different from OTL.
Who will be the new president if Hindenburg dies in 1928, acodring to this: The Weimar constitution did not provide for a vice presidency. If the president died or left office prematurely a successor would be elected. During a temporary vacancy, or in the event that the president was "unavailable", the powers and functions of the presidency passed to the chancellor.
In 1928 Hermann Müller is the Chancellor of Germany leading a coalition made up of Social Democrats, Zentrum, DDP and DVP, so who would they pick as the new president of Germany.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,225
|
Post by stevep on Aug 19, 2018 19:11:02 GMT
Possibly. The depression is still very likely to occur and that will bring major problems to the world in general and Germany in particular because its so dependent on loans from the US which will cause widespread suffering and desperation in Germany and people turning to extremes when other options are seen to have failed. Hitler may still become a minority Chancellor as OTL but without an elderly Hindenburg to die shortly afterwards he's less likely to be able to make himself President. Presuming of course whoever is President in this scenario doesn't have an unfortunate 'accident' or be 'persuaded' to resign in favour of Hitler, options which might possible considering we're talking about the Nazis here.
Of course a lot would depend on who was the President and what his policies were. Possibly it might be someone who favours the Nazis but probably more likely someone who will seek to oppose them gaining power, although like a lot of the right wing politicians of the time there is the danger he might think he can use Hitler.
Basically you could see anything from a frustrated Hitler and possibly a failed coup by the Nazis to something not massively different from OTL.
Who will be the new president if Hindenburg dies in 1928, acodring to this: The Weimar constitution did not provide for a vice presidency. If the president died or left office prematurely a successor would be elected. During a temporary vacancy, or in the event that the president was "unavailable", the powers and functions of the presidency passed to the chancellor.
In 1928 Hermann Müller is the Chancellor of Germany leading a coalition made up of Social Democrats, Zentrum, DDP and DVP, so who would they pick as the new president of Germany.
Good and very important question, but don't know enough to speculate. From what you say the new President would be elected by Parliament or decided by the current government and I think that sounds like a left-centre coalition so presuming Hindenberg's replacement is still in power if/when Hitler becomes Chancellor its unlikely he would support Hitler and the Nazis so you might see a power struggle. If he's a left-leaning politician however he might have less support from the military which could be a problem in such a clash.
|
|
mullauna
Banned
Banned
Posts: 376
Likes: 40
|
Post by mullauna on Aug 19, 2018 21:31:36 GMT
Would a left leaning President even appoint Hitler Chancellor? Wilhelm Marx, had he won in 1925, would have been unlikely to do so. But, like i pointed out, the fatal hostility of the communists to the SDP prevents the labour movement successfully resisting Hitler.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Member is Online
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,225
|
Post by stevep on Aug 19, 2018 22:11:36 GMT
Would a left leaning President even appoint Hitler Chancellor? Wilhelm Marx, had he won in 1925, would have been unlikely to do so. But, like i pointed out, the fatal hostility of the communists to the SDP prevents the labour movement successfully resisting Hitler.
Would he have the power not to if Hitler organised a coalition that gave him a majority in Parliament? To refuse to under those circumstances is likely to prompt a constitutional crisis and also possibly new election where the Nazis and their allies would have an argument on who rules Germany, the elected government or the President, which could return them, possibly even with a direct majority, although the fact that Germany had a PR system would make that latter pretty damned difficult.
|
|
mullauna
Banned
Banned
Posts: 376
Likes: 40
|
Post by mullauna on Aug 19, 2018 23:17:46 GMT
If there is a fresh election in 1928, the President will serve until 1935, when Germany will be benefiting from the slow recovery that many nations did by then.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,985
Likes: 49,390
|
Post by lordroel on Aug 20, 2018 3:01:51 GMT
If there is a fresh election in 1928, the President will serve until 1935, when Germany will be benefiting from the slow recovery that many nations did by then. That is as long a the German president is strong enough to deal with a growing NSDAP.
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Aug 20, 2018 9:14:31 GMT
If Hindenburg dies in 1928 you have propably Wilhelm Marx (Zentrum), who originally lost in a narrow match 1925 against Hindenburg. He was a major player in Weimar, even if not very well known in modern times.
His attitude was democratic, based on a balance between leftist (SPD) and rightwing (DDP, DVP) democratic parties.
in 1928 the NSDAP and with them Hitler was a factor, but not significant, it needed the depression of 1929-30 to let him grow big. 1928 the NSDAP gained 2,6% of the votes... so they are a zero-factor.
With Marx as Reichspräsident Hitler will not raise to power, becauser Marx was a democratic politican who "belived" in Weimar.
The depression kicks in, he will still try to keep the democratic (more or less) parties keep together against the communists and nazis.
With him Hitler will not be Chancelor, so the next elections in 33 mean that Hitlers Naziparty crashes... originally they were bankrupted by their extreme costly propaganda in 1932 that gained em lots of votes.. as usual for hitler he risked everything and - otl had huge luck. Here he will not have the vote of the Reichspräsident and his party crashes because they have no money left. Hugenberg and co had spent LOTS of money and expected payback - that will not come.
So either right wing terrorists kill the Reichspräsident or Hitler and the nazis fell back into the low digits or some failed coup by the SA... the Reichswehr was ready to kill them, they saw them as "swines they want to kill"... even with 3-400k men, without weapons the elite Reichswehr would have crushed such revolution easily. Doing that mean that Hitler is done for, cause it is one thing to do such "rebellion" in the early times, but in the late weimar phase - and against the Army it is a death sentence for his hopes.
With Marx living to 1946 OTL he could do 2 terms of 7 years, so he steer germany from 1928 to 1942. In this time weimar recovers, still fully rearm (there was no difference between communists and nazis in this part), if the french are weak they will look for austria - interesting side information: The crisis in germany and austria got from bad to terrible because the french acted in the way they did after German-austrian-tax-union-affair. Both wanted to prepare a unification, esp. france, but also poland and chechoslovakia were against. IN that crisis the death toll to fuel the banking crisis in germany and austria of 1931 (july 14. and 15) got out of control, some (not all) historicans think that this was the final path to destruction of german economy (compared to other european countries germany was hitted harder - these historicans say this was because of this behaviour). So one could blame these german and austrian politicans who tried it, or - if you see it as their right to do it, the behaviour of france and later also UK did it.
So some interesting What-if could be, "What if germany and austria would not have tried to do the Deutsch-Österreichische Zollunion"... less hit hard by the depression maybe avoid hitlers way to power?
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Aug 20, 2018 9:24:36 GMT
If there is a fresh election in 1928, the President will serve until 1935, when Germany will be benefiting from the slow recovery that many nations did by then. That is as long a the German president is strong enough to deal with a growing NSDAP. Nope, the german reichspräsident was even more powerful as the US president. Basically some "king light"... so either he get killed or he could stop any hope of hitler. Knowing the historical facts (NSDAP was out of money, Hugenberg no longer wanted to spent money if he did not see "result") it was "Now or never" for the nazis in january 1933. All expectations made clear that their "high" was gone, they would have fallen to 20% or less if there had been another "regular" election. President Marx easily could dissolve the parliament and order new elections... the same as hindenburg did in the "presidal terms"... the fact is - the NSDAP could no longer do the intense propaganda AND the deepest point of the depression was reached. So each month to a new election (march 33) would show that the weimar-politicans were right. So KPD and NSDAP would loose votes, even if they push for more propaganda (they could not do so, lack of money). Hitler either try to putsch (again), but with the SA trying to gain power the Reichswehr would have crushed em. SA and Reichswehr hated each other with passion. One has MGs, artillery, and a trained elite corps, the others were drunken brawlers who could kill helpless SPD- or jewish people in 30:1, but were not able to fight really. there was a point about that even in 1934 - as hitler removed Röhm and the heads of the SA because he decided to use the Reichswehr/Wehrmacht instead. So with Marx as president in 1928 we are safe till 1935, propably also the second term. Hitler and co cannot hope to gain more influence and either crash itself (there were leftist and rightist streams in the party who soley were unified by the will of Hitler, who barley could do so OTL, here with him not gaining chancelorship he could be removed by some eager mignons...)or try something very stupid and die in the defeat (or run away...)
|
|
mullauna
Banned
Banned
Posts: 376
Likes: 40
|
Post by mullauna on Aug 20, 2018 11:03:07 GMT
Weimar will still have to do something about Memel, Danzig and the Corridor as they are itches that political parties of all stripes agreed needed to be scratched.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,985
Likes: 49,390
|
Post by lordroel on Aug 20, 2018 14:16:16 GMT
The depression kicks in, he will still try to keep the democratic (more or less) parties keep together against the communists and nazis. With him Hitler will not be Chancelor, so the next elections in 33 mean that Hitlers Naziparty crashes... originally they were bankrupted by their extreme costly propaganda in 1932 that gained em lots of votes.. as usual for hitler he risked everything and - otl had huge luck. Here he will not have the vote of the Reichspräsident and his party crashes because they have no money left. Hugenberg and co had spent LOTS of money and expected payback - that will not come. That is if there are no elections in September 1930, July 1932, November 1932, March 1933 and November 1933 which saw the NSDAP become the biggest party in the Reichstag.
|
|
steffen
Ensign
Posts: 300
Likes: 18
|
Post by steffen on Aug 21, 2018 17:18:09 GMT
The depression kicks in, he will still try to keep the democratic (more or less) parties keep together against the communists and nazis. With him Hitler will not be Chancelor, so the next elections in 33 mean that Hitlers Naziparty crashes... originally they were bankrupted by their extreme costly propaganda in 1932 that gained em lots of votes.. as usual for hitler he risked everything and - otl had huge luck. Here he will not have the vote of the Reichspräsident and his party crashes because they have no money left. Hugenberg and co had spent LOTS of money and expected payback - that will not come. That is if there are no elections in September 1930, July 1932, November 1932, March 1933 and November 1933 which saw the NSDAP become the biggest party in the Reichstag. Sorry... i wasn´t 100% clear in my comment. My opinion is this: We give the nazis the "plus" (with heavy hearts, personally i want em all dead) that nothing else changes. Hindenburg was a die-hard-monarchist who maybe disliked the nazis, but he HATED democracy. So Marx as President would not change that, but still would propably be more pro democracy as Hindenburg. As much as i could found out about him, he had no ties or positive reflections on the nazis. So all other elections stay the same - the nazis win in november32, but Marx will NOT, repeat NOT make Hitler Chancellor. That is - for any "democratic" President a no-go. So either he rule similar to Hindenburgs dicatorship of "presidial chancellors" against the parliament - and would still do that longer as january 1933, or he would find a better government that include a majority of democratic parties. Both is - compared to OTL an improvement. So with Marx as President we do not get Hitler as "legal elected/announced" Chancellor and so no faked march33 elections. But nov33 allready saw the decline of Hitler, here the Hugenberg-Complex will no longer put money into a "dead horse"... in the same time the internal problems of the nazis would tear em apart. On one side the leftists (Strasser and Co), on the other the ultra right wingers (with naturally Hitler beeing the major player), then you have the SA with Röhm who wanted his "civil war against the hated army"... It is a powder keg ready to explode. So Hitler can do these things a.) try to still gain democratic power... for that he need to wait till Marx is out of power - or try to kill him and be himself President (As OTL tried and lost against Hindenburg) That is highly risky because if the kiling fails and they catch the killers things could blow up. Esp. with a more conservative president, who also do not suit as a scapegoat (no jewish, or something "bad" in the eyes of the right wing assholes) b.) try to gain power with brutal force - basically let Röhm do his putsch. We know from the structures of the SA, the bad organisation and the preparations of the Reichswehr that this would end in a bloodbath with loopside casulties (20:1 or worse) against the SA. Both scenarios are bad (for the nazis) and have no real succsess. With a recovery of the economics Hitlers positive impact (promising jobs and food) onto the hard hit society will be even more reduced. So- with Marx as president in 1928 - after an election - you basically avoid Hitler personally and the nazis till 1935, at this date Hitler is either dead, on the run (hunted for starting a civil war), imprisoned. The chance for a raise of the nazis as OTL would be destroyed.
|
|
mullauna
Banned
Banned
Posts: 376
Likes: 40
|
Post by mullauna on Aug 21, 2018 17:36:57 GMT
Weimar will want to do something about the eastern border as much as the Nazis did.
|
|