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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jul 29, 2018 22:41:49 GMT
During the early years of the North Korean communist movement, two groups arose as the main players in addition to the faction led by Kim Il-Sung. The pro-Moscow faction was led by Ho Ka-i, while Kim Tu-bong led the Yan'an faction (basically the pro-Chinese faction). In the early stages of the Korean War, Kim Il-sung was almost killed by Allied bombing. If Kim dies, and the Yan'an faction comes to power, here are the questions:
1) How will the Cold War play out, assuming that the Sino-Soviet Split still plays out, with North Korea being in the Chinese camp?
2) How will North Korea develop socio-politically, militarily, and economic, with the adoption of the Chinese Communist model?
3) How will a pro-Chinese North Korean regime's relations with South Korea be like, as well as their relations with the rest of the world? Would this hypothetical pro-Chinese North Korean regime still develop nuclear weapons?
4) Finally, when can this pro-Chinese North Korean regime fall, if it struggles?
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James G
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Post by James G on Jul 30, 2018 13:00:31 GMT
Interesting idea.
It could become one big Chinese special economic zone a la Shenzhen for trade with the West or something wholly different like a forward defensive line against capitalist aggression.
There are many possibilities there.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 30, 2018 14:51:01 GMT
During the early years of the North Korean communist movement, two groups arose as the main players in addition to the faction led by Kim Il-Sung. The pro-Moscow faction was led by Ho Ka-i, while Kim Tu-bong led the Yan'an faction (basically the pro-Chinese faction). In the early stages of the Korean War, Kim Il-sung was almost killed by Allied bombing. If Kim dies, and the Yan'an faction comes to power, here are the questions: 1) How will the Cold War play out, assuming that the Sino-Soviet Split still plays out, with North Korea being in the Chinese camp? 2) How will North Korea develop socio-politically, militarily, and economic, with the adoption of the Chinese Communist model? 3) How will a pro-Chinese North Korean regime's relations with South Korea be like, as well as their relations with the rest of the world? Would this hypothetical pro-Chinese North Korean regime still develop nuclear weapons? 4) Finally, when can this pro-Chinese North Korean regime fall, if it struggles?
It might depend on what happens after Mao dies. If you still get Deng and other economic reformists then does N Korea follow suit or stay extremely committed to Maoist ideas and total controls? Suspect that's most likely as OTL they paid no attention to Chinese reforms or the attempts at limited reform by the late SU. In which case the only issue is whether the Chinese get angry at the level of hostility from a satellite and reduce links, or possibly if they have more contacts within the regime might be able to assist a coup against the Kim dynasty. Otherwise, if they decide they prefer to have even an obnoxious satellite things stays pretty much as now.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Aug 4, 2018 3:27:53 GMT
I would think that the Kim regime and the pro-Soviet faction would have been purged by the pro-Yan'an faction. Perhaps if Mao had accepted the proposed UN ceasefire of 1951:  It would have also gone a long way in making sure that his puppets would be in power. That can also mean an earlier but nastier Sino-Soviet split, which would result in the communist world splintering into several different schools: Stalinist, Maoist, Euro-Communist, etc. For a pro-Chinese North Korea, would they also attempt to launch their own Cultural Revolution that will destroy much of their cultural heritage, or would they keep it? One other possible scenario in this case: an early power struggle against Mao that results in either Zhou Enlai, Liu Shaoqi or some other Chinese communist emerging as a de facto successor to Mao. |
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