Post by steffen on Jul 29, 2018 12:54:15 GMT
Reading about that in AH.com, i like the idea of Austria-Hungaria striking early after the brutal murderer of Franz Ferdinand and wife.
So - instead of loosing 1 month and let the outrage in the world die out, the austrians push for war with Serbia much earlier, basically they deliver their ultimatum as they did OTL (10 points), but this time they mobilize quickly and the whole 2nd army is used against serbia.
Personally this would my favourite scenario.
Why?
1.) The world is still upset about that killing, also serbia - was guilty as it could be - would be punished for their support.
2.) the chance that the war would stay local is much higer as otl, avoiding WW1 is a good thing.
So let us start it:
AH mobilize, the 2nd army against serbia. in europe the politicans still discuss the things, the war-hawks in france and uk haven´t boiled the thing (in AH.com one mentioned the frog hopping into boiled water), so the peace-doves still are involved, slowing down the war support machine, here critically france (it was french blanc cheque to russia who motivated russia to mobilize (fully) that triggered finally ww1)
I think serbia will retreat, fearing to get crushed by forces from the east... so austria could take belgrad and larger parts of the country.
Bulgaria - without the defeat of the austrians OTL could be motivated to support austria, basically in autum 1914.
in the meantime germany, russia, france and UK would demand an international conference.
Lets discuss two possibilities...
a.) that conference happens, austria achive by negotiations that serbia is decapped, could no longer agitate against AH. This also mean the russian influence in the balkan is pushed back, serbia would be royal pissed about the "betrayal" by russia. I doubt austria would take areas, more the state will be controlled and limited, the black hand and the most hearable anti-austrians would be imprisoned or would flee the defeated country. Maybe greece and bulgaria could gain stuff they did not get in the last balkan war, that would be favourable because "great serbia" would be dead like a dodo.
b.) the conference is inefficent, austria crush - together with bulgaria seriba completly, large areas of serbia are gained by bulgaria, serbia is reduced to a helpless small state that cannot longer agitate (in the a.) scenario they have a date after that austrian and bulgarian, maybe international troops have to leave the country). There could be still a follow up conference, that limits the gains of austria and bulgaria.
Personally i prefer a.), but i like to read about that idea and how that could develop?
some points i like to discuss in this
a.) how would the international politics change, if serbia is removed as a military power in the balkan (both scenarios)
b.) how would the world react after they learn about the deep involvement of russia into the killing of Franz Ferdinand (training and financing the killers)
c.) how would - with no worldwar errupt by this - the overall alliances change, will they change? Some discuss that at AH, some speculate that UK would distance itself from france and russia. Maybe even france from russia.
So this is no forced timeline, just the plot is
a.) quick reaction by Austria-Hungaria
b.) no world war because (this is no evidence, just an assumption) the war hawks in france and UK and russia have not enough time to push the trigger from their side to escalate into ww1. (that doesn´t mean that the CPs did not do the same, but if the discussions about the conflict in france delay the full support (second blanc cheque for russia by france) russia would not mobilize. We know now that THIS was the point of no return - the german military forced the politicans to start war, because a full mobilized russia could not be allowed in the planning of the german generalstab). So no discussion about WW1 OTL, here it should be avoided.
I have also no clue how a treaty(conference) would treat serbia - i just guess that AH would only accept it if it is clear that serbia is no longer any problem for it, not in political or military aspects - i tried to word this into "greater serbia is dead"... it would be nice if greece and bulgaria get their shares, so serbia is reduced in strength and possibilities and could no longer be a starting point of a world war.
So - instead of loosing 1 month and let the outrage in the world die out, the austrians push for war with Serbia much earlier, basically they deliver their ultimatum as they did OTL (10 points), but this time they mobilize quickly and the whole 2nd army is used against serbia.
Personally this would my favourite scenario.
Why?
1.) The world is still upset about that killing, also serbia - was guilty as it could be - would be punished for their support.
2.) the chance that the war would stay local is much higer as otl, avoiding WW1 is a good thing.
So let us start it:
AH mobilize, the 2nd army against serbia. in europe the politicans still discuss the things, the war-hawks in france and uk haven´t boiled the thing (in AH.com one mentioned the frog hopping into boiled water), so the peace-doves still are involved, slowing down the war support machine, here critically france (it was french blanc cheque to russia who motivated russia to mobilize (fully) that triggered finally ww1)
I think serbia will retreat, fearing to get crushed by forces from the east... so austria could take belgrad and larger parts of the country.
Bulgaria - without the defeat of the austrians OTL could be motivated to support austria, basically in autum 1914.
in the meantime germany, russia, france and UK would demand an international conference.
Lets discuss two possibilities...
a.) that conference happens, austria achive by negotiations that serbia is decapped, could no longer agitate against AH. This also mean the russian influence in the balkan is pushed back, serbia would be royal pissed about the "betrayal" by russia. I doubt austria would take areas, more the state will be controlled and limited, the black hand and the most hearable anti-austrians would be imprisoned or would flee the defeated country. Maybe greece and bulgaria could gain stuff they did not get in the last balkan war, that would be favourable because "great serbia" would be dead like a dodo.
b.) the conference is inefficent, austria crush - together with bulgaria seriba completly, large areas of serbia are gained by bulgaria, serbia is reduced to a helpless small state that cannot longer agitate (in the a.) scenario they have a date after that austrian and bulgarian, maybe international troops have to leave the country). There could be still a follow up conference, that limits the gains of austria and bulgaria.
Personally i prefer a.), but i like to read about that idea and how that could develop?
some points i like to discuss in this
a.) how would the international politics change, if serbia is removed as a military power in the balkan (both scenarios)
b.) how would the world react after they learn about the deep involvement of russia into the killing of Franz Ferdinand (training and financing the killers)
c.) how would - with no worldwar errupt by this - the overall alliances change, will they change? Some discuss that at AH, some speculate that UK would distance itself from france and russia. Maybe even france from russia.
So this is no forced timeline, just the plot is
a.) quick reaction by Austria-Hungaria
b.) no world war because (this is no evidence, just an assumption) the war hawks in france and UK and russia have not enough time to push the trigger from their side to escalate into ww1. (that doesn´t mean that the CPs did not do the same, but if the discussions about the conflict in france delay the full support (second blanc cheque for russia by france) russia would not mobilize. We know now that THIS was the point of no return - the german military forced the politicans to start war, because a full mobilized russia could not be allowed in the planning of the german generalstab). So no discussion about WW1 OTL, here it should be avoided.
I have also no clue how a treaty(conference) would treat serbia - i just guess that AH would only accept it if it is clear that serbia is no longer any problem for it, not in political or military aspects - i tried to word this into "greater serbia is dead"... it would be nice if greece and bulgaria get their shares, so serbia is reduced in strength and possibilities and could no longer be a starting point of a world war.