lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 4, 2018 20:21:41 GMT
It did occur and is now being followed by a 1960s arms race between Argentina, Brazil and Chile. With Brazil most likely having the most ships being build.
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 5, 2018 10:48:55 GMT
It is a little bit more complex than that, but broadly speaking, Brazil is out in front by virtue of its size.
As of the end of 1960, all three of the ABC states have just acquired 2 rebuilt former RN Illustrious class CVs, filling their carrier needs for ~20 years, and a pair of former USN Brooklyn class CLs acquired in the 1940s. They all have a few 1950s designed gun destroyers, but the majority of their DD fleets are prewar; their frigate forces are former RN vessels.
Argentina and Chile are each in the process of acquiring two new capital ships and Brazil is talking about buying at least three. Their 1930s heavy cruisers need replacing and they are interested in new destroyers (Brazil 12-16, Argentina 8-10, Chile 6-8) and modern submarines.
Each operates a heavy bomber force of Shorts Valentines (a British jet bomber with a performance close to the @ Valiant), but are in the market for a replacement. Given the atomic programmes of all three states, this is seen as very important.
They'll also be looking to replace their Supermarine Swifts (Argentina 72, Chile 80 and Brazil 129) and their Canberras (Chile 62, Argentina 109, Brazil 138) in the 1960s.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 5, 2018 15:00:00 GMT
It is a little bit more complex than that, but broadly speaking, Brazil is out in front by virtue of its size. As of the end of 1960, all three of the ABC states have just acquired 2 rebuilt former RN Illustrious class CVs, filling their carrier needs for ~20 years, and a pair of former USN Brooklyn class CLs acquired in the 1940s. They all have a few 1950s designed gun destroyers, but the majority of their DD fleets are prewar; their frigate forces are former RN vessels. Argentina and Chile are each in the process of acquiring two new capital ships and Brazil is talking about buying at least three. Their 1930s heavy cruisers need replacing and they are interested in new destroyers (Brazil 12-16, Argentina 8-10, Chile 6-8) and modern submarines. Each operates a heavy bomber force of Shorts Valentines (a British jet bomber with a performance close to the @ Valiant), but are in the market for a replacement. Given the atomic programmes of all three states, this is seen as very important. They'll also be looking to replace their Supermarine Swifts (Argentina 72, Chile 80 and Brazil 129) and their Canberras (Chile 62, Argentina 109, Brazil 138) in the 1960s. Thanks for the info as usual simon darkshade.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 5, 2018 15:47:23 GMT
It is a little bit more complex than that, but broadly speaking, Brazil is out in front by virtue of its size. As of the end of 1960, all three of the ABC states have just acquired 2 rebuilt former RN Illustrious class CVs, filling their carrier needs for ~20 years, and a pair of former USN Brooklyn class CLs acquired in the 1940s. They all have a few 1950s designed gun destroyers, but the majority of their DD fleets are prewar; their frigate forces are former RN vessels. Argentina and Chile are each in the process of acquiring two new capital ships and Brazil is talking about buying at least three. Their 1930s heavy cruisers need replacing and they are interested in new destroyers (Brazil 12-16, Argentina 8-10, Chile 6-8) and modern submarines. Each operates a heavy bomber force of Shorts Valentines (a British jet bomber with a performance close to the @ Valiant), but are in the market for a replacement. Given the atomic programmes of all three states, this is seen as very important.They'll also be looking to replace their Supermarine Swifts (Argentina 72, Chile 80 and Brazil 129) and their Canberras (Chile 62, Argentina 109, Brazil 138) in the 1960s.
I take it then there's no equivalent to OTL non-proliferation treaty or localised agreement banning nukes from S America - forget what it was called?
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 5, 2018 20:05:28 GMT
Historically, the treaty in question was the Treaty of Tlatleloco in 1967; nothing like that has happened yet.
Non proliferation has been discussed at the League of Nations, but there isn't any power bloc or group of smaller nations pushing for it.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 5, 2018 21:50:57 GMT
Historically, the treaty in question was the Treaty of Tlatleloco in 1967; nothing like that has happened yet. Non proliferation has been discussed at the League of Nations, but there isn't any power bloc or group of smaller nations pushing for it.
OK thanks. That was the treaty I was thinking of but been feeling a bit rough today so didn't dig too deeply to try and find the name of the damned thing.
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 6, 2018 1:33:32 GMT
As of 1960, these are the nuclear arsenals of the powers:
USA: 25,469 USSR: 5478 Britain: 4967 France: 623 China: 456 Canada: 369 Sweden: 63 Italy: 54 Spain: 22 India: 16 Australia: 12 Israel: 4 South Africa: 2
They are set to be joined by the Benelux states, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, Turkey, Indonesia, Switzerland, Mexico, Yugoslavia, Korea and perhaps Japan by the mid 60s.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 6, 2018 3:44:53 GMT
As of 1960, these are the nuclear arsenals of the powers: USA: 25,469 USSR: 5478 Britain: 4967 France: 623 China: 456 Canada: 369 Sweden: 63 Italy: 54 Spain: 22 India: 16 Australia: 12 Israel: 4 South Africa: 2 They are set to be joined by the Benelux states, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, Turkey, Indonesia, Switzerland, Mexico, Yugoslavia, Korea and perhaps Japan by the mid 60s. So Chili will be the only one of the 3 ABC countries who is not going to posses nuclear weapons in the future.
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 6, 2018 4:10:43 GMT
They will likely take longer, given their smaller economic and industrial base.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 6, 2018 4:14:24 GMT
They will likely take longer, given their smaller economic and industrial base. That is true, but if Argentina and Brazil are working on their programs, i do not think Chili is going to sit back and let it happen without resposnding to it, it will be a South American Nuclear race, one that Chili must join.
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 6, 2018 7:28:57 GMT
Chile is taking part, but is the smallest of the three economies. Brazil's figures are above, Argentina's GDP is £11,922 million ($298.05 billion) and Chile's GDP is £6821 million ($150 billion). That places certain hard limits on what they can afford and how quickly it can be done.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 6, 2018 10:17:57 GMT
As of 1960, these are the nuclear arsenals of the powers: USA: 25,469 USSR: 5478 Britain: 4967 France: 623 China: 456 Canada: 369 Sweden: 63 Italy: 54 Spain: 22 India: 16 Australia: 12 Israel: 4 South Africa: 2 They are set to be joined by the Benelux states, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, Turkey, Indonesia, Switzerland, Mexico, Yugoslavia, Korea and perhaps Japan by the mid 60s.
Ouch! The USSR are markedly lower than OTL - although possibly not in 1961? - but the US is markedly higher and Britain definitely is. Neither France nor China were nuclear powers at this point OTL and seeing so many other powers, including 5 dominions of the empire as nuclear powers definitely makes you think. I can't remember but presumably Germany is forbidden from having nukes but wonder if that might come under pressure as their outside the formal western alliance, which is somewhat weaker than OTL anyway.
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 6, 2018 12:40:47 GMT
Historically the USA had 18,638 in 1960 and the Soviets had 1602.
The Dark Earth 1945-1960 buildup:
USA 1945: 12 1946: 68 1947: 125 1948: 354 1949: 598 1950: 932 1951: 1565 1952: 2437 1953: 4410 1954: 6796 1955: 10431 1956: 13759 1957: 16245 1958: 19824 1959: 21675 1960: 25469
Britain 1945: 2 1946: 14 1947: 49 1948: 87 1949: 206 1950: 389 1951: 625 1952: 892 1953: 1236 1954: 1648 1955: 2142 1956: 2637 1957: 3154 1958: 3642 1959: 4298 1960: 4967
USSR 1950: 8 1951: 39 1952: 96 1953: 240 1954: 468 1955: 870 1956: 1332 1957: 2127 1958: 3088 1959: 4262 1960: 5478
I'll dig out France, China and the others tomorrow.
Germany has been under pressure to build up its own deterrent, but the changes of 1960 and 1961 are repositioning the Western umbrella over its head.
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Post by simon darkshade on Dec 6, 2018 12:51:13 GMT
1960 Notes:
- The Japanese-US Security Treaty consists of a mutual security agreement and clauses that cement US basing rights and intelligence cooperation, as well as secret agreements on Godzilla. - The RAF Canberra was shot down by Soviet fighters whilst monitoring Soviet rocket testing. - Assassinations and terrorist attacks over the course of January, February and March are the result of plotting between Soviet elements and the Scarlet Necromancer. - The Euphrates Dam in Syria is completed earlier, with quite a bit of work done to save archaeological sites. - Project Orion and the Kosmos Programme are aimed at manned exploration of the outer solar system, marking a new space race. - Burma is heating up. - Both the USA and Soviets are upping the ante with live ICBM/SLBM tests. - Algeria is only just starting to properly kick off and the FLN have a number of disadvantages. - The F-X programme isn't the same from @, but will see a formal request for proposals in 1961, various studies and refinements between '62 and '64 followed by a first flight of the winning design in 65 and entry into service with the USAF at some point in 1967 or 1968. - The USN is on the cusp of beginning a fighter development process of its own... - The massive creatures of the Marianas Trenc will be heard from again. - French Equatorial Africa is granted independence as it is rather costly for no significant return. France is working on the idea that it can maintain real control through influence. - Israel deploys what are rather old ballistic missiles as an interim solution. - Chinese-Soviet clashes are the beginning of future strife. - Nationalist candidates make gains across the Arab world. - The USAF bombers and Soviet subs that go missing are captured by the evil magics of the Scarlet Necromancer. - Nixon to the Supreme Court is intended by Thompson to be a means of removing a rival. - The Byzantine defections are not as they seem, but are part of the broader Trebizond Plan. - Soviet objections to German membership of the League of Nations are dropped as part of a rather convoluted strategy. - Borneo kicks off this year as one theatre of Super Konfrontasi. - The Whitechapel slayings are the work of a creature of the night. - Mexican armament is stepping up, causing some concern to the north. - Reinforcement of the Middle East and India by Britain is part of the Soviet master plan... - The darkness covering Western Europe is the result of one of Craggen's enchantments, as are the mass nightmares. - The March 12th explosion is a false flag incident. - Ernesto Guevara and the IRA will become quite the thorn in the side of the West. - The UFOs above Scandinavia are Space Nazi recon craft. - Collapse of the Paris Summit sets up a growing sense of impending crisis. This is then kicked into a full scale war scare by the ill timed RB-47 shoot down. - Soviet H-Bomb tests raise tension further. - The US draw down in Europe seems to have provoked Soviet adventurism and, even before the April Crisis, the decision to build US forces in Europe back up was made. - The Alaskan eagle incident is based on some similar apocryphal/fake Cold War stories about flocks of geese and the DEW Line. - Soviet mass arrests/purges are unconnected to the mounting crisis, but the perception in the West is different. - Tensions in Manchuria are also a result of Craggen trying to precipitate WW3. The French are also being manipulated to distrust the Germans; this doesn't take a lot of effort. - German precautionary pre-mobilisation is used as an excuse for the Soviet border closure, which makes the slide to war seemed inexorable. The Spetsnaz captures exacerbate this. - April 17's Iron Duke incident serves as the final catalyst; the Soviet pilot makes a tragic mistake. - By April 20, war seems hours away. At this point, the events of The Red Shadow commence. - The crisis begins to shift from a superpower confrontation to something far more sinister. - The Space Nazi attack demonstrates their extremely limited strike power. - Overall, the April Crisis has many long lasting effects on all of the major powers, kickstarting the process leading to the 1961 Defence White Paper. - All three superpowers begin a drawdown of forces in Europe during May. - Eichmann is still captured, but the news is somewhat overshadowed to begin with. - The Newfoundland Discussions finally come to fruition. - A four stage Saturn rocket. - Deployment of USAF fighters to Australia is part of the wider reaction to Red Indonesia. - France fields an LRBM with British aid, keeping it at the top table; the presence of Dunkerque off Lebanon is a sign of this. - There are indications that great white sharks have been wiped out. - The June heatbursts are a historical event, but not the pattern... - Ingemar Johannsen keeps his heavyweight title. - A crackdown on Rastafarians in Jamaica curtails their future role. - The British NRA has a different role. - Armed traffic wardens in Britain. - Senator Iselin = The Manchurian Candidate. - The Japanese PM is a very deadly chap. - Carl Kolchak is building a very interesting career. - Eradication of measles is within sight. - The Soviet proposal for a Barnard's Star expedition will be the subject of further developments. - Sweden does not see how it can hold its little corner of the Congo. - Triffids are perfectly safe... - There is no longer a house in New Orleans... - Italy getting Valiants is an interesting development. - Soviet strategic focus is shifting somewhat to China. - Rome recovering to host the Olympics is a great triumph. - The Epsilon Eridani signals lead one astronomer to note down the word "Gosh!" - Operation Sky Shield is a very big exercise with some interesting results. - Soviets getting some interesting bits and pieces from the crashed UFO. - A potential cancer-curing plant in the Amazon could be significant. - The proposed German SST is an interesting competitor for other projects; mention of 5 major German aircraft companies will lead to more developments. - The Mussolini lead may be a red herring. - USS Bainbridge is a larger, more capable DLGN. - John Coleman has a record breaking Australian Rules football career that isn't curtailed by injury. - Stalin Jr. presents an October Surprise. - The CID's estimate on Egypt is quite consequential. - The Soviet ICBM accident has some devastating consequences. - It is followed by the crackdown/purge in Moscow, which is mistaken by many in the West as a coup. - The novel obscenity case is Lady Chatterly's Lover, with different results. - Israel buying Phantoms is the first major Commonwealth sale. - The Alexandria Conference paves the way towards Arab purchases of major armaments. - China is starting to flex its muscles in space. - Jack the Ripper was captured in 1892. - The Ramparts Dam will not go ahead. - Action heating up in South Vietnam. - A breakthrough in fusion would be a little important.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 6, 2018 15:04:28 GMT
Historically the USA had 18,638 in 1960 and the Soviets had 1602. ..... Germany has been under pressure to build up its own deterrent, but the changes of 1960 and 1961 are repositioning the Western umbrella over its head.
I didn't realise Soviet numbers were that low in 1960? Knew they did a lot of misinformation, leading to Kennedy's raising concerns about a missile gap but thought they had more than that at the time, especially since we're talking about all nukes, not just the longer ranged stuff.
Yes I think the latter would be a good move in part because it would reduce the internal pressure for a German nuke, which would worry a lot of people. Presuming the same applies to Austria-Hungary?
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