mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Jul 11, 2018 5:09:56 GMT
WI the Soviets never went into Afghanistan in 1979-89?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 11, 2018 14:39:19 GMT
WI the Soviets never went into Afghanistan in 1979-89? That also depends, is Afghanistan already the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan in your time period of 1970 mullauna |
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mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Jul 12, 2018 1:38:44 GMT
What if Brezhnev dies earlier and the turmoil butterflies away the invasion?
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insect
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Post by insect on Jul 12, 2018 1:47:12 GMT
Jimmy Carter wins reelection.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2018 3:02:41 GMT
What if Brezhnev dies earlier and the turmoil butterflies away the invasion? Wich year as it might cause more butterflies than only no Soviet-Afghan war. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Jul 12, 2018 3:17:02 GMT
WI the Soviets never went into Afghanistan in 1979-89? Best PoD is to prevent the 1973 coup, which began Afghanistan's sorry slide from stable-ish neutral state to war-torn Soviet satellite. Less optimally, prevent or suppress the 1978 coup, which gave Afghanistan's stability the coup de grace, put Communists into power, started the Islamist civil war against them, and made temptation for Soviets to meddle almost irresistible. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2018 3:18:22 GMT
WI the Soviets never went into Afghanistan in 1979-89? Easiest PoD is to prevent the 1973 coup, which began Afghanistan's sorry slide from stable-ish neutral state to war-torn Soviet satellite. Less optimally, prevent or suppress the 1978 coup, which gave Afghanistan's stability the coup de grace, put Communists into power, and started the civil war. I always wonder if Afghanistan could remain a monarchy and if that would have a effect on Iran renaming one. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Jul 12, 2018 3:42:01 GMT
Easiest PoD is to prevent the 1973 coup, which began Afghanistan's sorry slide from stable-ish neutral state to war-torn Soviet satellite. Less optimally, prevent or suppress the 1978 coup, which gave Afghanistan's stability the coup de grace, put Communists into power, and started the civil war. I always wonder if Afghanistan could remain a monarchy and if that would have a effect on Iran renaming one. If the 1973 coup is avoided (far from difficult, just kill Daoud Khan) it is entirely possible but it shall do little to save the Shah regime, which got its trouble from an entirely different direction. For that, let the Shah die from cancer a half-decade earlier, and have his son either enact a few major reforms before major unrest starts OR be willing to got for all-out repression when it occurs. And let someone or something give Khomeini the early death he deserved. |
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Jul 12, 2018 7:29:46 GMT
Well, afghanistan was the vietnam for the USSR...
they bled white, pulled a lot troops and money into that place and achived nothing. That accelerated the point of no return for the crashed economy in the USSR.
With no such war we still have a red ghanistan, to change things 10 or 20 years earlier change to many things to seriously discuss that area of politics.
With afghanistan "just" slaughtering each other and have all the nasty stuff without the russian army bleeding you do not seed the islamistic terrorism as it happened (accidentally) OTL.
THey still could start to do it that way, but without that war and without the US-military training islamistic terrorists in such war methods, the start is much slower or less succsessfull.
Afghanistan 2018 would be not different from today, maybe other groups fighting each other, but overall still a failed country
The USSR save billions of needed Dollar, so they maybe could recover (with Gorbatchev), but the wall would still come down, the eastern european countries still could liberate themself from the WP-doctrine.
Why? Because the USSR need to fix much more as just not entering that war, they lack the economic durability for that.
So maybe Red russia fail 3-4 years later or is established as a semi-china, but with the others gone.
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mullauna
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Post by mullauna on Jul 12, 2018 11:46:22 GMT
It's been said by those involved, that in 1985, no one in Soviet internal circles would have dared to say that the Soviet Union should give up its gains of 1945. Not if they didn't want to be purged.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 12, 2018 14:52:57 GMT
It's been said by those involved, that in 1985, no one in Soviet internal circles would have dared to say that the Soviet Union should give up its gains of 1945. Not if they didn't want to be purged.
Could well be the case. Like many faltering empire its leaders were in deep denial about the problems it faced.
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Post by johnmortimer on Jul 20, 2018 18:50:57 GMT
The invasion of Afghanistan coincides with U.S treasury yields reaching an all time. Had the USSR been more fiscally conservative, they would have survived. All the USSR had to do was wait out the U.S. Let the U.S become overly aggressive. Let the U.S over extend itself militarily. Had the U.S become emboldened by a more passive Soviet Union, U.S treasury yields would have continued to increase. Early 1980 treasury yields of 18% were borderline catastrophic. All the USSR needed to do was scale back their own spending, and get the U.S to live above their means. Then the U.S would certainly have collapsed.
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