Jeb let us down

mcnutt
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Jeb let us down Jul 9, 2018 22:39:24 GMT

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Post by mcnutt on Jul 9, 2018 22:39:24 GMT

What if Jeb Bush ran for President in 2012? He and Mitt Romney would have split the moderate and establishment vote. ITTL how this leads to Rick Santorium’s path to nomination. In the Iowa caucuses Santorium wins a landslide: 36 % to Ron Paul’s 19 %. The two frontrunners were embarrassed. Romney won 12% and Bush 11%. In New Hampshire, Romney won a narrow victory with 20 % but with Bush and Santorium close behind him at 18 %. Santorium would score a victory in South Carolina that forced Newt Gingrich from the race. Santorium would sweep most of the rest of the primaries as Bush and Romney competed for the same pool of votes. Santorium won the nomination and choose Paul Ryan as his running mate. Although he insisted that he did not want to ban birth control, Santorium opposition to a government mandate to cover contraception. His statements that birth control is harmful to women and that it increases abortion caused controversy. Santorium’s statement that single mothers breed criminals and his criticism of wives working also caught the media’s attention. Likewise his opposition to all abortion even in cases of rape and incest stirred comment brought attention. The discussion of Santorium’s views on birth control, abortion wives who work outside the home during the first debate took attention away from President Obama’s poor performance. On election day Obama would win the popular vote 57 % to 40% and the Electoral College 411 to 127. ( That is the OTL Obama states plus Georgia,South Carolina, North Carolina, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, the 2nd District of Nebraska and Arizona. ) The Senate was 57 to 43 Democratic. ( That is the OTL Senate plus Democratic victories in the Arizona and Nevada. ) The House was 224 Democratic and 211 Republican. With a narrow margin in the House and a non filibuster proof majority in the Senate, Democrats were limited in the what they could do, They did pass an immigration bill that brought a path to citizenship for illegal aliens and protection for Dreamers.They also passed an LBGQ civil rights bill. The 2014 election was it was as it was OTL a Republican landslide but the Keep Congress Democratic GOTV drive won the two close Senate races in Colorado and North Carolina. There was a Republican House but a tied Senate. After eliminating the filibuster for confirmation votes and with Vice President Biden always ready to cast the tie breaking vote, Democrats were able to confirm President Obama’s nominees for the federal bench, including Supreme Court Justice Merrick Garland. The OTL 2016 tied Supreme Court cases, ITTL are 5-4 liberal victories. The 2016 campaign is the same except there is more intense campaigning for the two closely contested Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats were able to bring enough voters to the polls and not only to win those Senate seats but to have Hillary carry the two states. President Trump wins the Electoral College 276 to 262 rather than the OTL 306 to 232. He claims the 52nd most narrow Electoral College victory rather than the OTL 46th. He still brags about winning in a landslide. The biggest difference between OTTL and ITTL is that President Trump takes office with a Senate controlled by Democrats 55 -45. That margin goes up to 56 -44 after Democrat Doug Jones won Vice President Jeff Sessions Senate seat. ( OTL Mike Pence was elected Governor by a narrow margin in 2012. ITTL he loses, so he is not in contention for Vice President in 2016 ) The Democratic Senate rejects any changes in the Affordable Care Act and The Republican Tax Plan. Also to President Trump’s great frustration provided no funding for the wall.They also do not confirm Betsy Devous as Secretary of Education.President Trump perfumes an entertaining hissy fit and then finds an actually qualified candidate who can win confirmation. After Puerto Rico votes for statehood, the Democratic Senate passes a statehood bill which is passed by the Republican House but is vetoed by President Trump. The Democratic Senate also rejects Neil Gorsuch to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. This was the start of the Democratic Senate refusal to confirm any of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominees. While this left the court shorthanded with an even numbered eight Justices, there were few ties. Democratic Senators counted on the 5-3 liberal majority. The liberal trend began when Justice Garland took office. This was evident in 2018 when the court by a vote of 5-4 overturned President Trump’s Travel Band and protected the right of unions to collect fees from non members.

insect Banned Posts: 380 Likes: 71	Jeb let us down Jul 10, 2018 4:59:05 GMT via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by insect on Jul 10, 2018 4:59:05 GMT I don't think it would be possible for jeb to get the nomination after his brother and dad already been president.
	Last Edit: Jul 10, 2018 5:09:26 GMT by insect

kyng
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Jeb let us down Jul 14, 2018 11:55:53 GMT James G likes this

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Post by kyng on Jul 14, 2018 11:55:53 GMT

Yeah, I think Santorum would lose that election pretty handily: he was just too far to the right to pick up many swing voters. However, I'm guessing that Santorum would still win Mississippi and South Carolina: the only way a Democrat can win those states is by winning a decent percentage of white evangelicals, and that isn't going to happen with Santorum on the ballot. Even Georgia would be difficult, but it might be doable if Obama can replicate Hillary's OTL 2016 performance in Atlanta.

Instead, I think there's a good chance that Obama would be able to flip Montana. It's not as socially conservative as the Deep South, and Obama actually lost it by only 2% in 2008. Even North or South Dakota might flip: Obama lost both of those by single digits in 2008 (the Dakotas don't have a large Democratic base, but they do have a ton of swing voters). I'll give Obama North Dakota, simply because Heidi Heitkamp won it in OTL 2012 (but I'll give Santorum the benefit of the doubt in South Dakota, where there was no Senate race in 2012).

I think you're right about Arizona and Missouri, though. Arizona is relatively socially liberal for a 'red' state, while Santorum's continued endorsement of Todd Akin (after the 'legitimate rape' comments) costs him Missouri.

So, after making those changes, we end up with this map:

Or, if we give Georgia to Santorum, then it becomes 386-152 - which is still a very comfortable victory!

Last Edit: Jul 14, 2018 11:57:40 GMT by kyng

lordroel
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Jeb let us down Jul 14, 2018 11:57:19 GMT kyng likes this

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Post by lordroel on Jul 14, 2018 11:57:19 GMT

Jul 14, 2018 11:55:53 GMT kyng said:

Yeah, I think Santorum would lose that election pretty handily: he was just too far to the right to pick up many swing voters. However, I'm guessing that Santorum would still win Mississippi and South Carolina: the only way a Democrat can win those states is by winning a decent percentage of white evangelicals, and that isn't going to happen with Santorum on the ballot. Even Georgia would be difficult, but it might be doable if Obama can replicate Hillary's OTL 2016 performance in Atlanta.

Instead, I think there's a good chance that Obama would be able to flip Montana. It's not as socially conservative as the Deep South, and Obama actually lost it by only 2% in 2008. Even North or South Dakota might flip: Obama lost both of those by single digits in 2008 (the Dakotas don't have a large Democratic base, but they do have a ton of swing voters). I'll give Obama North Dakota, simply because Heidi Heitkamp won it in OTL 2012 (but I'll give Santorum the benefit of the doubt in South Dakota, where there was no Senate race in 2012).

I think you're right about Arizona and Missouri, though. Arizona is relatively socially liberal for a 'red' state, while Santorum's continued endorsement of Todd Akin (after the 'legitimate rape' comments) costs him Missouri.

So, after making those changes, we end up with this map:

Still a very comfortable victory!

Nice map kyng, where did you get it.

This is my mod color, when its this color, you know

kyng Consul General Posts: 1,187 Likes: 909	Jeb let us down Jul 14, 2018 21:33:43 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by kyng on Jul 14, 2018 21:33:43 GMT I made it on 270towin.com: www.270towin.com/ They also have an interactive specifically for the 2012 election (which is what I used to make the above map): www.270towin.com/2012_Election/interactive_map

insect Banned Posts: 380 Likes: 71	Jeb let us down Jul 16, 2018 1:09:57 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by insect on Jul 16, 2018 1:09:57 GMT The fringe vote would be drawn to santorum

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Post by mcnutt on Jul 9, 2018 22:39:24 GMT

Post by insect on Jul 10, 2018 4:59:05 GMT

Post by kyng on Jul 14, 2018 11:55:53 GMT

Post by lordroel on Jul 14, 2018 11:57:19 GMT

Post by kyng on Jul 14, 2018 21:33:43 GMT

Post by insect on Jul 16, 2018 1:09:57 GMT