futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 2, 2018 1:42:51 GMT
Would this compromise peace in 1940 have been acceptable to both the Anglo-French and the Schwarze Kapelle (in the event of a failed Nazi German invasion of France in 1940, followed by an anti-Nazi coup in Germany between one and six months later)? :
-Plebiscites are held in Danzig, the Polish Corridor, Czechia (minus the Sudetenland), the Memelland, and Eupen and Malmedy. Everyone who lived there in 1939 can vote in these plebiscites and all of these plebiscites will be held under Anglo-French supervision.
-Germany gets to keep both Austria and the Sudetenland without a plebiscite. Also, Hungary and Poland both get to keep--without plebiscites--all of the parts of Czechoslovakia that they acquired in 1938-1939.
-An independent Poland is recreated in the Polish territories that Germany withdraws from. Whether it reacquires the Polish Corridor will depend on the outcome of the plebiscite there (which, for the record, is made in Poland's favor since all of the Poles who moved to the Polish Corridor between 1919 and 1939 could vote in this plebiscite).
-Germany is allowed to remain armed and to keep its military.
-Germany is allowed to deal with its surviving Nazi war criminals (Hitler and perhaps some other top Nazis will be killed in the anti-Nazi coup in Germany in either late 1940 or early 1941 in this TL) however it sees fit--whether it be in the form of a trial or in the form of summary executions.
-Germany does not have to pay any reparations to anyone.
-Whether Czechia and Slovakia will reunite will be up to them.
Anyway, any thoughts on this? Would such a compromise peace have been acceptable to both the Anglo-French and the Schwarze Kapelle in a scenario where France doesn't fall in 1940 and where an anti-Nazi coup occurs in Germany within six months of the failed Nazi German invasion of France?
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 2, 2018 1:44:35 GMT
For the record, I'm especially unsure about the no reparations part. After all, one would think that Poland would demand compensation for all of the damage that Germany did as a result of its invasion and occupation of Poland in 1939-1940.
I don't know if the Schwarze Kapelle--being proud German patriots that they are--would have actually agreed to pay any reparations to Poland, though.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2018 8:49:53 GMT
Would this compromise peace in 1940 have been acceptable to both the Anglo-French and the Schwarze Kapelle (in the event of a failed Nazi German invasion of France in 1940, followed by an anti-Nazi coup in Germany between one and six months later)? : -Plebiscites are held in Danzig, the Polish Corridor, Czechia (minus the Sudetenland), the Memelland, and Eupen and Malmedy. Everyone who lived there in 1939 can vote in these plebiscites and all of these plebiscites will be held under Anglo-French supervision. -Germany gets to keep both Austria and the Sudetenland without a plebiscite. Also, Hungary and Poland both get to keep--without plebiscites--all of the parts of Czechoslovakia that they acquired in 1938-1939. -An independent Poland is recreated in the Polish territories that Germany withdraws from. Whether it reacquires the Polish Corridor will depend on the outcome of the plebiscite there (which, for the record, is made in Poland's favor since all of the Poles who moved to the Polish Corridor between 1919 and 1939 could vote in this plebiscite). -Germany is allowed to remain armed and to keep its military. -Germany is allowed to deal with its surviving Nazi war criminals (Hitler and perhaps some other top Nazis will be killed in the anti-Nazi coup in Germany in either late 1940 or early 1941 in this TL) however it sees fit--whether it be in the form of a trial or in the form of summary executions. -Germany does not have to pay any reparations to anyone. -Whether Czechia and Slovakia will reunite will be up to them. Anyway, any thoughts on this? Would such a compromise peace have been acceptable to both the Anglo-French and the Schwarze Kapelle in a scenario where France doesn't fall in 1940 and where an anti-Nazi coup occurs in Germany within six months of the failed Nazi German invasion of France?
I think the western powers would be unhappy with the idea that the plebiscites are tilted so in the Germans/fascist favour. I.e. that land siezures from a democratic Czechoslovakia aren't up for plebiscites and that Slovakia, now under a fascist government will be unlikely to give its own people a choice on whether it wants to reunite with the Czechs or not. Also does the definition of the 'Polish corridor' include the heavily Polish Pozan region which Germany has annexed? [This could actually be in Poland's favour given how Polish Pozan is].
Also given that an aggressive war was waged against Poland, with much brutality and abuses and that as a factor of the Nazi alliance with Stalin Poland lost its eastern territories the idea that Germany gets away without paying any compensation to its victims is dubious. Both morally and because if your sending a sign that such behaviour won't come with costs your going to encourage more such behaviour.
It would be better with a scenario where Chamberlain stands up to Hitler over Czechoslovakia and then if the Schwarze Kapelle then successfully overthrows Hitler there is a basis for some agreement.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Jul 2, 2018 17:42:49 GMT
Hi, what sense does a plebiscite has in Danzig? 99,5% of the people are german. The question how such voting would end is - well predictable
Also i have the feeling you underestimate the mixture of "nazis/germans" in the british (esp. here) but also the french opinion.
For them the nazis were puppets of the evil generals, who dreamed about world domination. So if you achive some removal of the nazi government, for the Allies there has nothing changed. The evil puppet masters still exist.
With the germans attacking poland the appeasement policy was utterly crushed. Why on earth would - esp. the french - they accept a military STRONG germany, that got defeated (if i understood the plot correctly) by the allied forces in the west?
With that plot the germans allready had occupied denmark, conquered norway. So at last these would want to get back their countries? And compensation for the damage the germans had done to them.
What kind of defeat had the german army suffered by the french and british forces? Is it a draw?
What is with the russian part of poland - i cannot see stalin giving up that, because his ally Hitler is dead and the germans want to make peace with the allies!
OTL they belived the unbeatable french army, combined with the unlimited power of the british empire would crush the germans easily. It was a shock that france was blown to peaces in short time.
Sorry, another scenario that is inplausible, it cannot work because its premisse is wrong.
Then the peace:
why should be a plebiscite in the former parts of checheslovakia? The sudetenareas could be discussed - i cannot see this happen but lets say okay. But why on earth is such voting needed in parts that are nearly 100% without germans?
I think what you want to discuss is this:
Germany gets its borders from march1939 before they crush chechoslavika, additional they get (or it will be voted) the polish corridor, podznan and danzig
hint:
the results would propably:
danzig-> german
corridor-> 50:50 chance (with the many destructions and the other half of poland occupied by russia)
podznan -> polish
Memelland -> german (was full of germans)
Eupen and malmedy -> who cares?
Your scenario cannot work because
either the germans are succsessfull - crushing the netherlands, belgium and france, UK will not ask for terms.
Or the french and british are stopping the german advance cold, so the german military and population will not turn from "anti war" to "hitler is god"-mood.
In both cases there is no need to make peace. The key error is, that you belive the allies thought hitler is the main villian, they belived "the germans" are as a nation/race the evil. They belived their own lies about world war 1 (here they allready started this, with the french-german war lied into a german war of agression (but the french were the agressive ones) and ww1 as a "german generals and the evil kaiser planned to take the world"-plan
They were 100% right about the nazis, but they did not recognize that the main villians were the nazis, not the generals.
they will make no differences about the people (and the new schwarze kapelle-group ruling germany) and the evil nazi leadership (because - as mentioned - they saw the officers behind the nazis as the true masters).
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2018 18:20:38 GMT
Steffen is again showing his ignorance of what was going on at the time. There was concern that another round of extreme militarism was in place in Germany - which it was to a degree - but it was recognised the the immediate problem was the Nazis. However the former is still likely to be a significant barrier to peace in the proposed TL.
Its quite possible that the German attack could turn into a disaster for them with the loss of much of the attacking forces and deadlock in the Low Countries, but whether that resulted in an anti-Nazi coup is difficult to tell. However if it did the prime reason the war is likely to continue was because the expansionist mindset of much of the German military - and a worrying part of the population - was incompatible with the desire for peace and stability of the western powers.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jul 2, 2018 23:18:37 GMT
Would this compromise peace in 1940 have been acceptable to both the Anglo-French and the Schwarze Kapelle (in the event of a failed Nazi German invasion of France in 1940, followed by an anti-Nazi coup in Germany between one and six months later)? : -Plebiscites are held in Danzig, the Polish Corridor, Czechia (minus the Sudetenland), the Memelland, and Eupen and Malmedy. Everyone who lived there in 1939 can vote in these plebiscites and all of these plebiscites will be held under Anglo-French supervision. -Germany gets to keep both Austria and the Sudetenland without a plebiscite. Also, Hungary and Poland both get to keep--without plebiscites--all of the parts of Czechoslovakia that they acquired in 1938-1939. -An independent Poland is recreated in the Polish territories that Germany withdraws from. Whether it reacquires the Polish Corridor will depend on the outcome of the plebiscite there (which, for the record, is made in Poland's favor since all of the Poles who moved to the Polish Corridor between 1919 and 1939 could vote in this plebiscite). -Germany is allowed to remain armed and to keep its military. -Germany is allowed to deal with its surviving Nazi war criminals (Hitler and perhaps some other top Nazis will be killed in the anti-Nazi coup in Germany in either late 1940 or early 1941 in this TL) however it sees fit--whether it be in the form of a trial or in the form of summary executions. -Germany does not have to pay any reparations to anyone. -Whether Czechia and Slovakia will reunite will be up to them. Anyway, any thoughts on this? Would such a compromise peace have been acceptable to both the Anglo-French and the Schwarze Kapelle in a scenario where France doesn't fall in 1940 and where an anti-Nazi coup occurs in Germany within six months of the failed Nazi German invasion of France?
1. I think the western powers would be unhappy with the idea that the plebiscites are tilted so in the Germans/fascist favour. I.e. that land siezures from a democratic Czechoslovakia aren't up for plebiscites and that Slovakia, now under a fascist government will be unlikely to give its own people a choice on whether it wants to reunite with the Czechs or not.
2. Also does the definition of the 'Polish corridor' include the heavily Polish Pozan region which Germany has annexed? [This could actually be in Poland's favour given how Polish Pozan is].
3. Also given that an aggressive war was waged against Poland, with much brutality and abuses and that as a factor of the Nazi alliance with Stalin Poland lost its eastern territories the idea that Germany gets away without paying any compensation to its victims is dubious. Both morally and because if your sending a sign that such behaviour won't come with costs your going to encourage more such behaviour.
4. It would be better with a scenario where Chamberlain stands up to Hitler over Czechoslovakia and then if the Schwarze Kapelle then successfully overthrows Hitler there is a basis for some agreement. 1. If the Western Powers want to insist in Austria and the Sudetenland as well, they are certainly welcome to do so. Since Germany is strongly likely to win these plebiscites, agreeing to them would be a small price to pay for the Schwarze Kapelle (SK). However, it is worth noting that Britain and France really don't have the moral high ground in regards to this considering that they pushed Czechoslovakia to give the Sudetenland to Germany without a plebiscite in 1938. Indeed, the SK could say that the Sudetenland (and Austrian) issue is already settled and that there is thus no need to bring it up again. Also, regime change in Slovakia might be a part of the package here. If Germany will withdraw from Czechia (minus the Sudetenland) and Slovakia will have a democratic government, then the Czechs and Slovaks can vote on whether they want Czechoslovakia to be recreated or not. 2. No; rather, Posen/Poznan Province is going to have a separate plebiscite if the SK will actually ask for one (the SK might agree to withdraw from Posen/Poznan Province without a plebiscite since it is heavily Polish and thus Germany is unlikely to win a plebiscite there). Also, there might be two plebiscites in the Polish Corridor--one in Gdynia (to where a lot of Poles have moved to between 1919 and 1939) and one in the rest of the Polish Corridor (which, again, won't include Posen/Poznan Province). In both of these plebiscites, everyone who lived in these territories in 1939 will get to vote in them--something which should benefit Poland since a lot of Poles moved into these territories--or at least to Gdynia--between 1919 and 1939. Since Germany was the clear aggressor in World War II, it would strongly make sense for the rules of these plebiscites to be made in Poland's favor. 3. Yeah, I also think that the "no reparations" idea is unlikely to be accepted by the Anglo-French. After all, as you said, such an idea will only encourage similar behavior in the future. Plus, Germany certainly was responsible for a lot of damage (in both economic and human terms) to Poland as a result of its invasion of Poland and should thus have to compensate Poland for this. Also, it is possible that the Anglo-French will decide that Germany is not entitled to any plebiscites in either the Polish Corridor or Danzig since it is the one who attempted to unilaterally change their status by force. However, I don't know if Britain and France would be willing to continue the war for the sake of this. If this is a deal-breaker for the SK, then Britain and France might decide that it's best to agree to these plebiscites than to endure a lot more bleeding on the battlefield (since an Anglo-French victory on the battlefield could be very bloody). In addition to this, Britain and France might decide not to recognize the Soviet Union's annexation of eastern Poland until and unless a completely free and fair plebiscite will be held there--which the Soviet Union certainly won't agree to! 4. If Chamberlain is willing to fight Hitler over the Sudetenland, though, then he would be unlikely to agree to hand it over to the SK or even to hold a plebiscite there after the SK overthrow Hitler and the Nazis. |
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Jul 3, 2018 10:29:41 GMT
Steffen is again showing his ignorance of what was going on at the time. There was concern that another round of extreme militarism was in place in Germany - which it was to a degree - but it was recognised the the immediate problem was the Nazis. However the former is still likely to be a significant barrier to peace in the proposed TL. Its quite possible that the German attack could turn into a disaster for them with the loss of much of the attacking forces and deadlock in the Low Countries, but whether that resulted in an anti-Nazi coup is difficult to tell. However if it did the prime reason the war is likely to continue was because the expansionist mindset of much of the German military - and a worrying part of the population - was incompatible with the desire for peace and stability of the western powers. Ah, the troll-trying guy jump in? Where did i show my igorance, esp., in what? Do you claim that in western europe, esp. in UK and the USA the nazis were seen as puppets of the german military? Even in 1945? Wasn´t the whole propaganda build on this purpose? No? As i wrote - you basically agree with me. Either the germans are succsessfull - as OTL, then the british have nothing to discuss - again as OTL, because a german (doesn´t matter if these are the nazis or a democractic state) dominated europe is a declaration of war for the empire. If they loose - as decribed, basically fail to take the western countries, they are doomed. They all know that. The german military feared exactly this and got surprised by the results of the sichelschnitt. A coup killing the nazis doesn´t help, because - with the mindset "nazis are puppets of the military" the french and british want to remove germany as a power. The evilness of the germans isn´t relevant to this. They could have been total nice guys, fighting for the right of homosexuells to get accepted, (to change from worst case evilness), it doesn´t matter at all. if that germany "escape" a brutal occupation and separation in many parts they could call themself lucky. And with the german army shattered by attacking in the west they could not stop the french, british, dutch and belgian forces. Maybe you should read what one writes instead call "i am against it". So - do you agree that the scenario cannot work or do you tell us that the french and british would accept such negotiated peace? Really? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 3, 2018 10:36:34 GMT
Steffen is again showing his ignorance of what was going on at the time. There was concern that another round of extreme militarism was in place in Germany - which it was to a degree - but it was recognised the the immediate problem was the Nazis. However the former is still likely to be a significant barrier to peace in the proposed TL. Its quite possible that the German attack could turn into a disaster for them with the loss of much of the attacking forces and deadlock in the Low Countries, but whether that resulted in an anti-Nazi coup is difficult to tell. However if it did the prime reason the war is likely to continue was because the expansionist mindset of much of the German military - and a worrying part of the population - was incompatible with the desire for peace and stability of the western powers. Ah, the troll-trying guy jump in? Where did i show my igorance, esp., in what? Do you claim that in western europe, esp. in UK and the USA the nazis were seen as puppets of the german military? Even in 1945? Wasn´t the whole propaganda build on this purpose? No? As i wrote - you basically agree with me. Either the germans are succsessfull - as OTL, then the british have nothing to discuss - again as OTL, because a german (doesn´t matter if these are the nazis or a democractic state) dominated europe is a declaration of war for the empire. If they loose - as decribed, basically fail to take the western countries, they are doomed. They all know that. The german military feared exactly this and got surprised by the results of the sichelschnitt. A coup killing the nazis doesn´t help, because - with the mindset "nazis are puppets of the military" the french and british want to remove germany as a power. The evilness of the germans isn´t relevant to this. They could have been total nice guys, fighting for the right of homosexuells to get accepted, (to change from worst case evilness), it doesn´t matter at all. if that germany "escape" a brutal occupation and separation in many parts they could call themself lucky. And with the german army shattered by attacking in the west they could not stop the french, british, dutch and belgian forces. Maybe you should read what one writes instead call "i am against it". So - do you agree that the scenario cannot work or do you tell us that the french and british would accept such negotiated peace? Really? Okay we do not need to say these things regarding other members of this forum. |
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