stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832 
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Jul 2, 2021 11:03:35 GMT
You never know. I'm gonna go against the rub of the grain and say yes- not because of genetics or anything like that, but mostly because of climate change. If the Russians are willing to turn to immigration to restore their demographic growth and prop up the bottom of their population pyramid, it's certainly possible, especially in the second half of the 21st century. Though if and when they do so, separatist movements would also become an increasingly important issue for them, especially in Asia.
Its a definite possibility and I think some of the less responsible figures in Russia and some other countries are complacent about global warming. It would probably depend on how high a level of heating occurs before things finally stablise - which hopefully it would do eventually. Plus while northern lands might be made more habitable they will have short daylight periods and not sure how fertile a lot of those lands will be. At the same time more southern lands which are much of their agricultural heartlands currently are likely to become markedly less fertile because of heat and possible drought issues.
I can see if such lands become more habitable then a lot of people might want to move into them but if most are non-Russian, especially since the most likely sources are Muslims from Central Asia and Chinese I can't really see any government in Moscow being happy about large scale immigration from such groups simply because there's too much danger of colonization by stealth. However its possible that climate change, bringing new opportunities brings a new surge of Russian population growth, although I suspect it would really need government/social changes.
|
|
belushitd
Warrant Officer
Posts: 205
Likes: 258
|
Post by belushitd on Jul 19, 2021 16:19:09 GMT
I strongly suspect that sometime in the next 50 or so years, Russia will have to fight China for control of Siberia. China has something like 5 times the population and could certainly view Siberia much as pre WWII Japan did, as in the "Northern Resource Area".
If Russia's population continues its downward trend, it may not have enough people to fight off China.
I strongly doubt that the demographics are likely to rebound, for all the reasons cited earlier in the thread.
Belushi TD
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Jul 19, 2021 18:50:06 GMT
I strongly suspect that sometime in the next 50 or so years, Russia will have to fight China for control of Siberia. China has something like 5 times the population and could certainly view Siberia much as pre WWII Japan did, as in the "Northern Resource Area". If Russia's population continues its downward trend, it may not have enough people to fight off China. I strongly doubt that the demographics are likely to rebound, for all the reasons cited earlier in the thread. Belushi TD
Actually demographically its worse than that, more like 10-1. Quick wiki check gives a 2021 estimate of 146,171,015 - which includes the disputed Crimean region, about 143,759,445 without it. For China the figure from the 2020 census is 1,411,778,724. True China has a growing problem of an aging population but I think the same applies to Russia. Have heard some suggestions already of growing Chinese economic activity and settlement in parts of Siberia so there could already be a problem of colonization by stealth so to speak.
|
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Aug 1, 2022 6:11:01 GMT
Yes it will. Wars cause baby booms so we're gonna see one when this current war ends. Even if that doesn't do the trick, climate change will make far more of Russia livable and farmable and we'll probs see people have loads of kids to help them farm like we did during America's manifest destiny stage. At the very least Russia will accept MANY MANY climate refugees.
|
|
|
|
Post by Max Sinister on Aug 7, 2022 2:02:36 GMT
Russia, esp. Siberia has a continental climate. Hence, Russia getting warmer means sth very different from Britain getting warmer. The extreme heat in the summers might be a problem. Which kind of plants survive both extreme heat AND cold?
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
|
Post by stevep on Aug 7, 2022 11:14:06 GMT
Russia, esp. Siberia has a continental climate. Hence, Russia getting warmer means sth very different from Britain getting warmer. The extreme heat in the summers might be a problem. Which kind of plants survive both extreme heat AND cold?
Could be especially critical for the main food producing areas.  |
|
miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
Posts: 7,470 
Likes: 4,295
|
Post by miletus12 on Aug 7, 2022 17:39:44 GMT
Since fertility--like various other human traits--is partly heritable, I was wondering if Russia would eventually experience a massive population boom. After all, if fertility is partly heritable, then each succeeding generation should be more inclined to have children than the previous generation. In turn, this should result in an increase in the total fertility rate and eventually in a massive population boom. The reason that I am focusing on Russia here is because Russia has a lot of available living space and thus there would probably be less environmental pressures there in favor of having smaller families. Thus, I was wondering if you think that Russia will eventually experience a massive population boom as a result of a greater and greater percentage of its population having the "fertility gene" with each succeeding generation and as a result of it having a lot of available resources and a lot of living space. Anyway, any thoughts on this? Also, for what it's worth, the trends that I am talking about are already occurring in Israel right now. As the "fertility gene" becomes more widespread among Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews are having more and more children. Indeed, Israel's Jewish total fertility rate increased from 2.62 to 3.16 children per woman between 1995 and 2016! : www.cbs.gov.il/reader/shnaton/templ_shnaton_e.html?num_tab=st03_13&CYear=2017Thus, wouldn't many other countries eventually be likely to follow in Israel's footsteps in regards to this? The short answer is "no". Climate has little effect on this. Culture has. The trend among the Russians is fewer births and nothing indicates that higher crop yields reversed that trend. They had a chance in the 1990s to 2010s when they had access to all the food they wanted. The choice was bread or Vodka. They chose Vodka. |
|
|
|
Post by Fractal Multiverse's Energy on Nov 21, 2022 8:54:11 GMT
Baby Boom in the 21st Century may not be the same as in Pre-1960 period. Unless Russia becomes a sort of a Hermit Kingdom with only jobs, lifestyles and environment that are permitted by a Hyper-Conservative and Fascist-like Russian Dictatorship, the present attitudes and lifestyles will continue (considering that we are talking about the next 20-30 years, only, and not a Space Age Technological era of the Future beyond that when all countries will likely see a Baby Boom, though in a different manner altogether).
Well, in my opinion, the present vodka and alcoholism epidemic situation nor a Hermit Kingdom Russia is desirable, but some kind of a Open and Democratic Russia that provides good jobs, better relations with the West (and Ukraine), and a resulting mini Baby Boom from that. How likely is that? Time will tell, but an interesting and a wishful possibility.
Edit: When on AH.com back in October 2019, I posted a few posts in the FH if Uralic Semi-Tribal communities like Karelians, Erzya, Moksha, Komi, Udmurt, Khanty, Mansi, Samoyedic, etc peoples could increase the fertility rate in their possibly Semi-Tribal settings (where Tribal elders have a significant say), could drive up the population of Russia albeit with a different demography. The replies I received is that assimilation is too fast, and this may not happen. This is my favorite situation where Russia is a patchwork of different Nations (not divided, but as in the Bible where a tribe is called a Nation), with everyone having a say. Would be more democratic and conducive to growth. This could be possible even now but the undemocratic system there won't allow that. A Green Nuclear powered Industrialized Russia, being a Union of different Uralic, Rus and Turkic (Tatars and Bashkirs) Nations, would be a Switzerland of the East.
|
|
|
|
Post by Max Sinister on Nov 23, 2022 18:13:25 GMT
"Green nuclear"? What, as in fusion?
|
|
|
|
Post by Fractal Multiverse's Energy on Nov 24, 2022 6:42:08 GMT
"Green nuclear"? What, as in fusion? Yeah, Tokamak (initially) and eventually Compact Nuclear Fusion is ALSO in that phrase mentioned here, but only beyond 2035-2040. For the now, it's investments into "Regular" Nuclear and the Nuclear SMRs and setups like that, that can help the World to go in the direction to achieve the above mentioned goals. |
|
|
|
Post by Max Sinister on Nov 25, 2022 23:17:51 GMT
Once talked to an engineer who told me that Tokamak had a serious flaw that prevented it from creating more energy than it needs it be kickstarted. Something about running for 18 minutes or so only, because of natural constraints.
|
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Nov 30, 2022 11:16:54 GMT
According diverse Studies and prediction:
Will Russia Population of 125 million drop down to 84~62 million in 2100.
Europe will have similar problems, but less in comparison to Russia
Even China population will drop to 740 million until 2100.
India could face similar drop in population.
But Africa will have a massive population boom, estimation goes to 3~4 billions in 2100 !
A Wild card in those predictions is, if someone get a stupid idea in 21th century ?
Like produce designer babies with better fertility, or even mass produce Clones, Biodroids, Replicants (or what ever they call them them)
That could bring shift in Population
In worst case the superior Replicants take over after they exterminate there nation old population...
|
|
|
|
Post by Fractal Multiverse's Energy on Nov 30, 2022 15:23:32 GMT
According diverse Studies and prediction: Will Russia Population of 125 million drop down to 84~62 million in 2100. Europe will have similar problems, but less in comparison to Russia Even China population will drop to 740 million until 2100. India could face similar drop in population. But Africa will have a massive population boom, estimation goes to 3~4 billions in 2100 ! A Wild card in those predictions is, if someone get a stupid idea in 21th century ? Like produce designer babies with better fertility, or even mass produce Clones, Biodroids, Replicants (or what ever they call them them) That could bring shift in Population In worst case the superior Replicants take over after they exterminate there nation old population... This is what is going to happen. UN statistics are a waste and are never taking into account Scientific and Technological interventions. Artificial and External Wombs, Space Technology, Compact Nuclear Reactors, more and more advanced Computation and other stuff, will make the statistics turn out totally false. For all we know, the World of 2100 will look nowhere similar or near to the World of 2020s or even 2040s. |
|
michelvan
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 488
Likes: 804
|
Post by michelvan on Nov 30, 2022 17:02:09 GMT
Artificial and External Wombs, Space Technology, Compact Nuclear Reactors, more and more advanced Computation and other stuff, will make the statistics turn out totally false. For all we know, the World of 2100 will look nowhere similar or near to the World of 2020s or even 2040s. Cars will still drive on Wheels in 2100... But there will be tremendous development in Artificial Intelligence and Robotic, see What TESLA is doing. Japan try for moment robotics to deal with there demographic problems, but this a dead end literary, if population decline to zero and Robots inherit Japan. (or in worst case the Robots get rid of those pesky Humans) France and Germany try with immigrants with more success for moment. Genetics with Clones, Biodroids, Replicants will have same end results like AI robots, they inherit there production Nation or get rid of those pesky Humans... |
|
|
|
Post by Fractal Multiverse's Energy on Dec 1, 2022 2:43:35 GMT
Artificial and External Wombs, Space Technology, Compact Nuclear Reactors, more and more advanced Computation and other stuff, will make the statistics turn out totally false. For all we know, the World of 2100 will look nowhere similar or near to the World of 2020s or even 2040s. Cars will still drive on Wheels in 2100... But there will be tremendous development in Artificial Intelligence and Robotic, see What TESLA is doing. Japan try for moment robotics to deal with there demographic problems, but this a dead end literary, if population decline to zero and Robots inherit Japan. (or in worst case the Robots get rid of those pesky Humans) France and Germany try with immigrants with more success for moment. Genetics with Clones, Biodroids, Replicants will have same end results like AI robots, they inherit there production Nation or get rid of those pesky Humans... If we can crack a compact enough an Energy source like Compact Fusion power which we will by 2100 AD, given the Physics and Space Science Research going, there will well be hovering cars, Tesla or not. Let's see. If not by 2100 AD, by 2150 or 2200 AD (given that these centuries will see compounding growth), it HAS to happen. Regarding Japan, what I think is that it will be Hybrids of Quantum (and more advanced) Self-Repairing Hyper-Computing Chips manufactured in Space, and Bio Humans. Hybrids which will have more power to think, plan and make more things happen. It is the same everywhere, eventually, but first in Japan. Russia and European Union will follow, then USA, then Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, then Indian Subcontinent and finally Africa. Given the transformative power of these Technologies, expected in a few decades, the spread to other countries will be rapid. For all we know, I don't believe that traditional robots can inherit the Earth as they might never have sentience (they might be programmed to research enough Physics to evolve it, but then, they aren't robots after that happens). Let's see how it goes. |
|
