futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 29, 2018 22:09:33 GMT
Since fertility--like various other human traits--is partly heritable, I was wondering if Russia would eventually experience a massive population boom. After all, if fertility is partly heritable, then each succeeding generation should be more inclined to have children than the previous generation. In turn, this should result in an increase in the total fertility rate and eventually in a massive population boom. The reason that I am focusing on Russia here is because Russia has a lot of available living space and thus there would probably be less environmental pressures there in favor of having smaller families. Thus, I was wondering if you think that Russia will eventually experience a massive population boom as a result of a greater and greater percentage of its population having the "fertility gene" with each succeeding generation and as a result of it having a lot of available resources and a lot of living space. Anyway, any thoughts on this? Also, for what it's worth, the trends that I am talking about are already occurring in Israel right now. As the "fertility gene" becomes more widespread among Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews are having more and more children. Indeed, Israel's Jewish total fertility rate increased from 2.62 to 3.16 children per woman between 1995 and 2016! : www.cbs.gov.il/reader/shnaton/templ_shnaton_e.html?num_tab=st03_13&CYear=2017Thus, wouldn't many other countries eventually be likely to follow in Israel's footsteps in regards to this? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 30, 2018 12:16:01 GMT
Since fertility--like various other human traits--is partly heritable, I was wondering if Russia would eventually experience a massive population boom. After all, if fertility is partly heritable, then each succeeding generation should be more inclined to have children than the previous generation. In turn, this should result in an increase in the total fertility rate and eventually in a massive population boom. The reason that I am focusing on Russia here is because Russia has a lot of available living space and thus there would probably be less environmental pressures there in favor of having smaller families. Thus, I was wondering if you think that Russia will eventually experience a massive population boom as a result of a greater and greater percentage of its population having the "fertility gene" with each succeeding generation and as a result of it having a lot of available resources and a lot of living space. Anyway, any thoughts on this? Also, for what it's worth, the trends that I am talking about are already occurring in Israel right now. As the "fertility gene" becomes more widespread among Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews are having more and more children. Indeed, Israel's Jewish total fertility rate increased from 2.62 to 3.16 children per woman between 1995 and 2016! : www.cbs.gov.il/reader/shnaton/templ_shnaton_e.html?num_tab=st03_13&CYear=2017Thus, wouldn't many other countries eventually be likely to follow in Israel's footsteps in regards to this?
Is this a question of genetics or culture? Israel has absorbed a lot of people from Russia and other areas used to a lower standard of living and hence more prone to large families to secure new generations. Coupled with the increase in hard line religious groups who believe in large families. In most cases as countries start to develop their population grow tends to decline as family orientate more towards spending on other things in the security that a small number of children born will actually survive to adulthood. Plus the sheer costs of bringing up and educating children in a developed society.
In Russia there is still a lot of poverty and uncertainty, plus support for larger families from the government. However the latter wasn't very effective for the Soviets and I'm doubtful in the longer term it would be for Putin and any successors. There is a lot of empty land but a lot of it is pretty barren. Think Siberia has actually seen a drop in population once Soviet restrictions on movement were removed as people returns to the relatively better climate and markedly better social resources of European Russia. Also a lot of Central Asia is now politically separate and unlikely to welcome a lot of Russian settlers. I could see some bounce-back from the population stagnation of the latter Soviet period but unless there are major social changes I don't see it being dramatic or long lasting.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Oct 4, 2018 0:04:57 GMT
Since fertility--like various other human traits--is partly heritable, I was wondering if Russia would eventually experience a massive population boom. After all, if fertility is partly heritable, then each succeeding generation should be more inclined to have children than the previous generation. In turn, this should result in an increase in the total fertility rate and eventually in a massive population boom. The reason that I am focusing on Russia here is because Russia has a lot of available living space and thus there would probably be less environmental pressures there in favor of having smaller families. Thus, I was wondering if you think that Russia will eventually experience a massive population boom as a result of a greater and greater percentage of its population having the "fertility gene" with each succeeding generation and as a result of it having a lot of available resources and a lot of living space. Anyway, any thoughts on this? Also, for what it's worth, the trends that I am talking about are already occurring in Israel right now. As the "fertility gene" becomes more widespread among Israeli Jews, Israeli Jews are having more and more children. Indeed, Israel's Jewish total fertility rate increased from 2.62 to 3.16 children per woman between 1995 and 2016! : www.cbs.gov.il/reader/shnaton/templ_shnaton_e.html?num_tab=st03_13&CYear=2017Thus, wouldn't many other countries eventually be likely to follow in Israel's footsteps in regards to this?
Is this a question of genetics or culture? Israel has absorbed a lot of people from Russia and other areas used to a lower standard of living and hence more prone to large families to secure new generations. Coupled with the increase in hard line religious groups who believe in large families. In most cases as countries start to develop their population grow tends to decline as family orientate more towards spending on other things in the security that a small number of children born will actually survive to adulthood. Plus the sheer costs of bringing up and educating children in a developed society.
In Russia there is still a lot of poverty and uncertainty, plus support for larger families from the government. However the latter wasn't very effective for the Soviets and I'm doubtful in the longer term it would be for Putin and any successors. There is a lot of empty land but a lot of it is pretty barren. Think Siberia has actually seen a drop in population once Soviet restrictions on movement were removed as people returns to the relatively better climate and markedly better social resources of European Russia. Also a lot of Central Asia is now politically separate and unlikely to welcome a lot of Russian settlers. I could see some bounce-back from the population stagnation of the latter Soviet period but unless there are major social changes I don't see it being dramatic or long lasting. The interesting thing about the European part of the Soviet Union is that people there generally tended to have small families in spite of them having a low standard of living. I certainly don't think that it's the Russians who are causing Israel's total fertility rate increase. Rather, I suspect that this is occurring because Haredi Jews make up a larger and larger percentage of the total Israeli population as time goes on and as the years go by. |
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Jan 17, 2020 19:58:11 GMT
Simple living space along (like in Russia) will never be the most important factor regarding fertility and birthrate.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 17, 2020 20:03:17 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 18, 2020 10:35:32 GMT
The interesting thing is that as the article says modern Russia is in some ways very similar to Czarist Russia with wealth and power concentrated in a very small minority at the time. In ~1900 Russia was undergoing a massive population rise but nowadays the bulk of the population is urban rather than rural - hence less need for children as workers not to mention rules on them being educated, better educated so they know how powerless they are which can cause depression and less willingness to raise children, especially with the expenses involved and with access to birth control and probably less opposition to it from the state and church so unwanted pregnancies will be a lot less like - and can be aborted. As such and with declining living standards being reported back in the 70's it seems unlikely that the population will see an upsurge soon.
I'm a bit surprised there is much migration into the country, even if only a few hundred thousand a year? Possibly its Russian speaker from the near abroad, which presumably means its limited in total potential and also each one that leaves the former Soviet states means less Russian influence there. Or more dangerously potentially for the state there is migration from N Korea [basically slave labourers for the state] or China into the eastern regions. Given the low Slavic populations in much of the region and China's claims on many areas and population - although the rate of growth there is declining as well I can see Russia seeing a challenge to its control of parts of Siberia in coming decades.
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Post by riggerrob on Oct 4, 2020 19:46:03 GMT
I doubt that Russia will see a rise in population for three reasons: aging, alcoholism and abortion.
The aging population is a result of a series of waves of low birth rates that originated during the 1920s (World War 1, Communist Revolution and Stalin's Purges). A Russian boy born in 1920 had only a 20 percent chance of surviving until 1946 (end of WW2). This shortage of young men meant no "Baby Boom" after WW2 and a series of waves of low birth rates still continuing into today.
Alcoholism reduces the life expectancy of Russian men among the lowest in First World countries. Aside from premature deaths (accidents, sirocis of the liver, heart disease, etc.), alcoholism also creates "brewers' droop."
Finally, abortion is the leading method of birth control in Russia. Abortions are free and far more accessible than pills, diaphrams, IUDs, etc. The Russian abortion rate is in the range of 244 per thousand live births .. double that of the next worst country.
Finally Russians are xenophibic: scared of foreigners who do not look Russian, meaning that they make life difficult for immigrants from formerly communist countries. Russia's xenophobia and racism derives from a long series of invasions by: indo-europeans, Huns, Mongols, Turks, Swedes, Poles, Lithuanians, Prussians, French, Germans, etc.
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James G
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Post by James G on Oct 4, 2020 19:50:48 GMT
I believe that at some point in the not to distant future, it's population will drop below the one hundred million mark.
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Post by american2006 on Oct 5, 2020 17:37:48 GMT
Why would there be? I get the genetic stuff, but there’d be emigration from the nation, for sustainablility and because its Russia
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 5, 2020 17:40:09 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 5, 2020 20:21:50 GMT
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Post by griml0ck122 on Oct 9, 2020 8:39:47 GMT
You have a very apethetic population that, outside Moscow, is not very economically active. This is also coupled with the declines caused by the 20th century. Then there is also the classic birthrate decline one sees in other industrialized countries. Its kinda hard to bring up children if you lack hope for the future.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 9, 2020 10:11:49 GMT
You have a very apethetic population that, outside Moscow, is not very economically active. This is also coupled with the declines caused by the 20th century. Then there is also the classic birthrate decline one sees in other industrialized countries. Its kinda hard to bring up children if you lack hope for the future.
Very true. In 1914 the Russian empire was expanding rapidly demographically and in the not too distant future, if the trends had continued would have matched the population of the rest of Europe. How things have changed.
If they last long enough and we don't devastate the world too much they will bounce back sooner or later. There's simply so much territory, a significant proportion of which is good agricultural land, as well as a lot of industrial capacity. However that would need good and responsible government for at least a decade or so, which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. Then there is the small probably of bordering an expansionist China, which has designs on a lot of its eastern territory and of Muslim Central Asia, which doesn't seem to be be seeing a sharp demographic decline.
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Post by alternatehistoryfox on Nov 25, 2020 2:53:44 GMT
You have a very apethetic population that, outside Moscow, is not very economically active. This is also coupled with the declines caused by the 20th century. Then there is also the classic birthrate decline one sees in other industrialized countries. Its kinda hard to bring up children if you lack hope for the future.
Very true. In 1914 the Russian empire was expanding rapidly demographically and in the not too distant future, if the trends had continued would have matched the population of the rest of Europe. How things have changed.
If they last long enough and we don't devastate the world too much they will bounce back sooner or later. There's simply so much territory, a significant proportion of which is good agricultural land, as well as a lot of industrial capacity. However that would need good and responsible government for at least a decade or so, which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. Then there is the small probably of bordering an expansionist China, which has designs on a lot of its eastern territory and of Muslim Central Asia, which doesn't seem to be be seeing a sharp demographic decline.
Not really, the only reason that Russia was growing at the time is that most the country hadn't industrialized yet. The Tzars maintained control of its populous by distributing vodka and thus used the same environment that the drug cartels use to peddle their products. |
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SinghSong
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Post by SinghSong on Jul 2, 2021 10:40:50 GMT
You never know. I'm gonna go against the rub of the grain and say yes- not because of genetics or anything like that, but mostly because of climate change. If the Russians are willing to turn to immigration to restore their demographic growth and prop up the bottom of their population pyramid, it's certainly possible, especially in the second half of the 21st century. Though if and when they do so, separatist movements would also become an increasingly important issue for them, especially in Asia.
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