futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 29, 2018 21:55:10 GMT
Here is an interesting scenario which I came up with:
Let's say that Louis-Philippe, Duke of Orleans (and future King of France in real life) dies young--specifically sometime before 1810 (which is when he had his first son). He can die of disease, get assassinated, get killed in warfare, et cetera.
Also, let's say that, unlike in real life, Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry (son of French King Charles X) is unable to produce a surviving son in this scenario. (In real life, a son--Henri, Count of Chambord--was born several months after the assassination of the Duke of Berry in 1820. Henri lived until his early 60s, dying in 1883.)
Anyway, what all of this is going to mean is that the French monarchy is going to be on track to experience a severe succession crisis in the early 19th century. In this scenario, the main Bourbon line is not going to have any heirs (in this scenario, both of French King Charles X's sons would have no surviving sons) and the Orleans line is likewise not going to have any heirs due to the untimely death of Louis-Philippe. Similarly, the Princes of Conti line died out in 1814 and the aging Prince of Conde (he died in 1830 in real life) doesn't have any surviving sons (due to the fact that Napoleon ordered his only son--the Duke of Enghien--executed in 1804).
Thus, who exactly is Charles X going to prepare as his successor in this scenario (before he gets overthrown in 1830, that is--if his overthrow still occurs in this scenario)?
I mean, there's still the Spanish Bourbon branch, but they officially renounced their rights to the French throne back in the early 1700s as a result of the War of the Spanish Succession and they haven't lived in France for over a century.
Anyway, any thoughts on this?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 30, 2018 10:05:15 GMT
Thus, who exactly is Charles X going to prepare as his successor in this scenario (before he gets overthrown in 1830, that is--if his overthrow still occurs in this scenario)? Could he not adopt somebody ore was that not a thing they did. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 30, 2018 10:15:58 GMT
Here is an interesting scenario which I came up with: Let's say that Louis-Philippe, Duke of Orleans (and future King of France in real life) dies young--specifically sometime before 1810 (which is when he had his first son). He can die of disease, get assassinated, get killed in warfare, et cetera. Also, let's say that, unlike in real life, Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry (son of French King Charles X) is unable to produce a surviving son in this scenario. (In real life, a son--Henri, Count of Chambord--was born several months after the assassination of the Duke of Berry in 1820. Henri lived until his early 60s, dying in 1883.) Anyway, what all of this is going to mean is that the French monarchy is going to be on track to experience a severe succession crisis in the early 19th century. In this scenario, the main Bourbon line is not going to have any heirs (in this scenario, both of French King Charles X's sons would have no surviving sons) and the Orleans line is likewise not going to have any heirs due to the untimely death of Louis-Philippe. Similarly, the Princes of Conti line died out in 1814 and the aging Prince of Conde (he died in 1830 in real life) doesn't have any surviving sons (due to the fact that Napoleon ordered his only son--the Duke of Enghien--executed in 1804). Thus, who exactly is Charles X going to prepare as his successor in this scenario (before he gets overthrown in 1830, that is--if his overthrow still occurs in this scenario)? I mean, there's still the Spanish Bourbon branch, but they officially renounced their rights to the French throne back in the early 1700s as a result of the War of the Spanish Succession and they haven't lived in France for over a century. Anyway, any thoughts on this?
That could be messy. Without a fairly moderate option in the Orleans line does France dig up a relatively obscure relative, probably with some constitutional limitations or go directly to a new republic?
If the latter does this, only 15 years after the end of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars get the rest of Europe very worried, possibly enough to step in militarily? Especially if the Belgium revolt occurs as OTL only a month later. You could see a major wave of unrest and pressure for reform, possibly with the new French republic feeling it should offer support or the conservative powers fearing it would.
I think if the close heirs have died out as you suggest then locating someone from a distant line could seem a waste of time. The Spanish Bourbons might be an option and the French line helped them a few years before against reformers. However that would create a lot of concerns about a unification of France and Spain. Furthermore the Spanish monarch, who would be the obvious candidate is Ferdinand VII who only has another 3 years to live and is notoriously reactionary so would probably be a poor choice for France. Possibly they could find a junior member of the Spanish branch as an alternative but that could be seen as a slight by many French royalists.
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 1:36:55 GMT
Thus, who exactly is Charles X going to prepare as his successor in this scenario (before he gets overthrown in 1830, that is--if his overthrow still occurs in this scenario)? Could he not adopt somebody ore was that not a thing they did. It would probably be risky since the lack of royal blood could undermine the new French King's legitimacy. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Sept 20, 2018 1:44:57 GMT
Here is an interesting scenario which I came up with: Let's say that Louis-Philippe, Duke of Orleans (and future King of France in real life) dies young--specifically sometime before 1810 (which is when he had his first son). He can die of disease, get assassinated, get killed in warfare, et cetera. Also, let's say that, unlike in real life, Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry (son of French King Charles X) is unable to produce a surviving son in this scenario. (In real life, a son--Henri, Count of Chambord--was born several months after the assassination of the Duke of Berry in 1820. Henri lived until his early 60s, dying in 1883.) Anyway, what all of this is going to mean is that the French monarchy is going to be on track to experience a severe succession crisis in the early 19th century. In this scenario, the main Bourbon line is not going to have any heirs (in this scenario, both of French King Charles X's sons would have no surviving sons) and the Orleans line is likewise not going to have any heirs due to the untimely death of Louis-Philippe. Similarly, the Princes of Conti line died out in 1814 and the aging Prince of Conde (he died in 1830 in real life) doesn't have any surviving sons (due to the fact that Napoleon ordered his only son--the Duke of Enghien--executed in 1804). Thus, who exactly is Charles X going to prepare as his successor in this scenario (before he gets overthrown in 1830, that is--if his overthrow still occurs in this scenario)? I mean, there's still the Spanish Bourbon branch, but they officially renounced their rights to the French throne back in the early 1700s as a result of the War of the Spanish Succession and they haven't lived in France for over a century. Anyway, any thoughts on this?
1. That could be messy. Without a fairly moderate option in the Orleans line does France dig up a relatively obscure relative, probably with some constitutional limitations or go directly to a new republic?
2. If the latter does this, only 15 years after the end of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars get the rest of Europe very worried, possibly enough to step in militarily? Especially if the Belgium revolt occurs as OTL only a month later. You could see a major wave of unrest and pressure for reform, possibly with the new French republic feeling it should offer support or the conservative powers fearing it would.
3. I think if the close heirs have died out as you suggest then locating someone from a distant line could seem a waste of time. The Spanish Bourbons might be an option and the French line helped them a few years before against reformers. However that would create a lot of concerns about a unification of France and Spain. Furthermore the Spanish monarch, who would be the obvious candidate is Ferdinand VII who only has another 3 years to live and is notoriously reactionary so would probably be a poor choice for France. Possibly they could find a junior member of the Spanish branch as an alternative but that could be seen as a slight by many French royalists.
1. I suspect that France will try to keep the monarchy in this scenario. 2. I think that the other European Powers would be discinclined to militarily intervene in France in this scenario if France refrains from stirring up trouble abroad (and if France actually becomes a republic, which I personally don't think will happen in 1830). I think that memories of the Napoleonic Wars would be enough to ensure that France doesn't become active outside of its own borders. AFAIK, other European Powers only militarily intervened after the French revolutionaries began going radical. 3. There would not have been any distant lines among the French royal family, though. The Condes became extinct in 1830 (with the Contis becoming extinct in 1814). Now, the last Conde prince died in mysterious circumstances which could perhaps be avoided in this TL, but he was already 74 years old when he died in 1830. Thus, unless he produces an heir--and he doesn't appear to have had much of a desire to do so in our TL after his son the Duc of Enghien was killed by Napoleon in 1804--the Conde line will become extinct relatively soon. If the Orleans line has already become extinct due to the early deaths of Louis-Philippe and his two younger brothers, then the French royal family is really going to be screwed in looking for an heir. They'd have to find a Spanish Bourbon and bring him to France if they want to have any chance of preserving the French monarchy. What I think will happen is that they'd find someone from a younger branch of the Spanish Bourbons and install him as the French King. Installing either Ferdinand VII or his brother Carlos would be too risky since the former is already King of Spain and the latter could become King of Spain if the latter dies without changing Spain's succession laws. Of course, maybe a compromise could be done where Carlos would become the new French King in exchange for agreeing to let Ferdinand VII install his eldest daughter as the new Spanish monarch (as in, by changing the Spanish succession laws). Thus, Carlos would eventually become French King Charles XI in this scenario. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 20, 2018 14:53:39 GMT
1. That could be messy. Without a fairly moderate option in the Orleans line does France dig up a relatively obscure relative, probably with some constitutional limitations or go directly to a new republic?
2. If the latter does this, only 15 years after the end of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars get the rest of Europe very worried, possibly enough to step in militarily? Especially if the Belgium revolt occurs as OTL only a month later. You could see a major wave of unrest and pressure for reform, possibly with the new French republic feeling it should offer support or the conservative powers fearing it would.
3. I think if the close heirs have died out as you suggest then locating someone from a distant line could seem a waste of time. The Spanish Bourbons might be an option and the French line helped them a few years before against reformers. However that would create a lot of concerns about a unification of France and Spain. Furthermore the Spanish monarch, who would be the obvious candidate is Ferdinand VII who only has another 3 years to live and is notoriously reactionary so would probably be a poor choice for France. Possibly they could find a junior member of the Spanish branch as an alternative but that could be seen as a slight by many French royalists.
1. I suspect that France will try to keep the monarchy in this scenario. 2. I think that the other European Powers would be discinclined to militarily intervene in France in this scenario if France refrains from stirring up trouble abroad (and if France actually becomes a republic, which I personally don't think will happen in 1830). I think that memories of the Napoleonic Wars would be enough to ensure that France doesn't become active outside of its own borders. AFAIK, other European Powers only militarily intervened after the French revolutionaries began going radical. 3. There would not have been any distant lines among the French royal family, though. The Condes became extinct in 1830 (with the Contis becoming extinct in 1814). Now, the last Conde prince died in mysterious circumstances which could perhaps be avoided in this TL, but he was already 74 years old when he died in 1830. Thus, unless he produces an heir--and he doesn't appear to have had much of a desire to do so in our TL after his son the Duc of Enghien was killed by Napoleon in 1804--the Conde line will become extinct relatively soon. If the Orleans line has already become extinct due to the early deaths of Louis-Philippe and his two younger brothers, then the French royal family is really going to be screwed in looking for an heir. They'd have to find a Spanish Bourbon and bring him to France if they want to have any chance of preserving the French monarchy. What I think will happen is that they'd find someone from a younger branch of the Spanish Bourbons and install him as the French King. Installing either Ferdinand VII or his brother Carlos would be too risky since the former is already King of Spain and the latter could become King of Spain if the latter dies without changing Spain's succession laws. Of course, maybe a compromise could be done where Carlos would become the new French King in exchange for agreeing to let Ferdinand VII install his eldest daughter as the new Spanish monarch (as in, by changing the Spanish succession laws). Thus, Carlos would eventually become French King Charles XI in this scenario.
That last does seem likely if the monarchy survives. It could generate some concerns about a new Bourbon Compact or even unification of the two thrones. On the other hand, while France is still probably seen as the greatest power in Europe in purely military terms Spain is definitely in decline both internally and having lost the bulk of its overseas empire. As such it would be seen as less of a threat to the balance of power, especially since OTL anyway both powers were ruled by Bourbon monarchs. Also with memories of the French occupation still strong in Spain there might well be opposition to such a union from Spain.
Mind you it wasn't until 1830 when Ferdinand VII finally managed to produce a child, his daughter Isabella, so if such a decision was made in 1820 for Carlos/Charles to become the French heir who would be the Spanish heir? Given butterflies so early we can't be certain Ferdinand produces an heir at all and if he doesn't, or if its a daughter as OTL then the Carlist claim to the throne would be militarily even stronger as the claiment is the king of France! Although that might reduce his attraction inside Spain.
Of course if such a decision was taken say 1820 when the Duke of Berry dies and there's an obvious problem looming over the French succession, then you are possibly more likely to see a French desire to support Spain maintaining/regaining its empire in the Americas. Which could cause a clash with Britain over the issue - the latter probably being supported indirectly by the US. If this was push to war then I can't really see the French efforts having much success against the RN and its likely to cause concern across Europe but don't know what the other butterflies might be.
Or since the Carlist support in the 1st war was mostly in the Basque region and parts of Catalonia could it be that an Isabella equivalent keeps most of Spain and what's left of its overseas empire and France effective absorbs Catalonia and the Basque country.
Another point here was that Carlos was even more reactionary than Ferdinand - which is saying something - so you could see some rebellion or at least extensive unrest in France if he continues to block reform, let alone seeking to put the clock back. Things like restoring more of the privileges of the aristocracy and church.
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al-Khataei Abdulhaq
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Post by al-Khataei Abdulhaq on Oct 6, 2018 17:14:45 GMT
Bonapartes?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 6, 2018 17:19:34 GMT
what do you mean with Bonapartes?. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 6, 2018 18:28:39 GMT
what do you mean with Bonapartes?.
Presuming he means the Bonaparte's as an alternative option? Of course Napoleon III came to power, initially by election in the 48 republic then made himself emperor shortly afterwards. However in 1830 it may be too soon to avoid serious concerns at a member of that dynasty regaining power in France. Also they would be opposed by the Bourbon supporters as usurpers.
Actually checking back Napoleon's son was actually still alive until he caught pneumonia in 1832 and died of TB a few months later. See Napoleon_II_Death. He may have been an option as the imperial loyalists would probably flock to his cause but that would be a matter of great concern to a lot of other people. Note from his Wiki article his Austrian relatives seem to have kept him on a very tight rein. Not even allowing him to campaign with the Austria army in Italy or visit there for the warmer weather - which might hint at health problems. |
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