How much larger would North Africa's European population be without the World Wars?
For the record, I am especially curious about the African countries that border the Mediterranean Sea as well as about Eritrea. Indeed, it is worth noting that, if I recall correctly, Algeria, Libya, and Eritrea all had a European percentage in the double-digits (10.0+%) of the total population in these territories.
Anyway, any thoughts on this?
Indeed, how many additional Europeans would have moved to North Africa--including Eritrea--if both World Wars had never occurred?
Hi,
so no world wars happened in europe? What about the pacific? esp. the ultra agressive japanese politics would cause some conflicts.
But lets say there is no european war in the 20th century (check), maybe some conflicts in the pacific region, but none that spark a world war (so no british agression or for that australian agression against german colonies - or viceversa).
Hm, this will have a massive fallout.
Lets do it each country
a.) Austria-Hungaria: Here i see some nasty internal conflicts, that will be crushed military... maybe even the germans support the Kaiser and crush some really nasty hungarian rebellion. The dying kaiser will be removed by some interesting person, who had many ideas, but wasn´t a true liberal.
So AH will still grow, its military will catch up modern standards, it population will grow and - propably - many refugees from serbian supressed people will flee to it.
AH will stay massivly in the german orbit, just because they need to - Russia is hostile, the serbians are hostile, romania is hostile. With no worldwars we have no local conflicts that explode into such war, so no "clearing of the problems"
AH had a massive rising economy, that would continue - i see AH surpassing france around 1935-40, catching UK sometimes in 1960. They will have problems, also they will face hostile neighbours (italy, serbia), things with the romanians could/would settle down. The military spending and some reforms after Idiot Conrad is removed (in 1916 - with franz ferdinand dead he will be removed) the austrian army will be quite strong, also the military would be the "melting pot" of the state. Sometimes the monarchy would be removed by a constitutional monarchy, in that the voting people have equal rights.
In opposition to stevep (if i understood him correctly) AH will not fell appart. It has the support from germany - no wars doesn´t mean the political situation had changed, so a lot money (for everyone) will be spent in the armed forces. For germany AH is one of two strong allies (from a 1914-POV), so they will not remove that
b.) France : France will suffer some internal problems, around 1920 latest. They will try to catch up with germany - after these modernize (enlarge) their army in ernest, lacking 25-30 million people to do so. With the socialist government they have at some point to accept they could not get back elsaß-lothringen. With problems in russia (they will happen - sometimes between 1916 and 1930 - personally i see them breaking out with the death of the czar, maybe earlier) they loose their major partner and have to cool down their hate against germany. With no war - that is something i have difficulties to see - because france NEED the war with germany in times the german army isn´t as big as it would be in say 1920 - the internal problems of france will reduce its economic and military efficency. But france was rich and has some interesting colonies. THey could move people to them, this will cause some to turn settler colonies. France has still a powerfull economy, with recovering from internal problems they could again start to expand it. Again around 1960 i see em surpass the british economy, too... so in europe they are a strong Nr. 3/4, equal to AH.
Algeria will be a mess, but with no holocaust, no worldwars, no defeat in ww2 (initial) they will slaughter any opposition in a much more bloody way as OTL, so instead of 2-3 million civilian algerian casulties double these numbers, also add 2-5 more million frenchmen IN algeria. It will be a full part of france.
c.) UK: Some may be surprised that AH and france would surpass economically UK in this scenario. The key elements for this are
1.) the ireland-problem - with no war it will hit hard in 1915, causing propably a very nasty civil war in ireland
2.) the india-problem - it will blow up and - with no world war 1 the british empire will try to keep things together -> a very bad idea, sucking so many power, economics and money that they loose even more ground to the germans and the USA
3.) the fear about loosing power - ironically the british will still build lots of battleships, to compensate the german, french, russian ship builiding, later the US ship building... they have to reduce other stuff to keep building them, so they will NOT do the needed modernisation of their allready falling behind industries. At some point they have to give india its liberty, i fear after a huge and very brutal war, with dozens of millions casulties in india in a 20-30 years war against the liberation fighters.
They will recover, but the morale dilema, the aging and now useless battleships (around 1940-50) the loss of bases (decolonisation will come - also the most colonials will hate the british with passion, esp. with the indian situation you have to expect lots of - german financed - liberation forces, who will kill british all around the world.
So UK will be in 1960 a nr.5 of economics, struggeling to keep with italy
d.) Italy: they will run into economic problems, esp. with a more modern and stronger Austria-Hungaria, ongoing massacres in africa and finally - around 1920-25 with the osman empire looking for revenge. They also will struggle with socialist and facist movements, with maybe Mussolini taking power (open - depends on how the things will change in italy) the Central powers will isolate them, supported by greece AND the osmans. France could cooperate, but i have no clue how and if this will happen.
But sometimes that will be gone and italy would recover. I fear (for the libyan people) they will keep that colony, having turned it into a settler colony. So sometimes around 1950-60 they will find the oil and profit from it. But italy also is plagued by liberty fighters (financed by the osmans). They need the oil, so they will defend their colony, isolationg itself from the others a bit. (But these have bloody hands, too - so i expect here some silent coalition)
e.) USA: they will have no economic boom in the years 1916-20, but also no 1929 depression, they lack a lot german patents they got post 1918, but overall the USA will be in a better position. From 1914-1930 they will be worse as OTL, from 1930-1970 much better.
But - lots of scientists who created the new "headquarter of science" will stay in germany, overall the american advantage will be reduced. Still the economic nr.1, military not. With no world wars, no pacific war in the original sense the american military will have (1960)
lots of battleship, aging, modern carriers and overall the "best" navy, but equal to the british one. The airforce is MUCH weaker, the army is only a broken part of OTL. They will be only a distant nr.3 or 4 in rocket science, maybe they gain their first nukes now (compared to OTL a shaddow of power). But - with no wars you have no holocaust, no fundamental thinking about mistreatment of black people.. this will sometimes explode violently in the deep south. How bad it will be? I have no clue.
f.) russia: Russia will face massive rebellions, propably a civil war in the time 1916-30, how bad this will be i have no clue.
Poland, the baltics and finnland could or could not be broken from the russian empire, that will struggle for quite some time.
If they keep these countries they struggle with terrorism, ahm, liberty movements, if they let em slip out they would be much stronger. No ww1, no ww2, no stalin (Lenin would propably suffer some accident in switzerland around 1920) mean russia will NOT reform the stalin-way, but will have lots of more people -around 30-60 million more people. Its economy will be much stronger, even if not as modernized as OTL. France will have to demand its credits back, that will cause some depression, but russia will recover.
Personally i see russia beeing very strong, the worldwide nr.3, the european nr.2. A strong military, but not the same way as OTL USSR. they face all the time islamic terror (sponsered by the osmans), polish terror (if they do not get independence)
g.) germany - here you have the german military growing massivly till 1920, in the same time the kaiser loose power to the parliament, a SPD-government, but strictly looked about by the army will get its reforms (all between 1914 and 1920), basically the monarch will turn slowly into a full democracy. Woman could sometimes elect, later as OTL, but still i see em doing it latest in 1925.
Economically germany will enlarge the distance to the british, but stay far behind the USA. They will be the powerhouse in science, language of science stay german. No nazis, no wars... the OTL polish areas will stay german... if some liberty fighters, err terrorists try something, they will get crushed, brutal and there will be a clear and powerfull demonstration to the polish state (if it exists)
Sometimes around 1920 the germans buy together with the british some portugiese colonies, these will be really suited as settler colonies.
So - with some economic troubles (every state will suffer them from time to time) lots of state-sponsored settlement to these colonies will happen. The other colonies will also be kept, that could cause some (british sponsored) rebellions with unpleasant results (to keep it civil), overall the colonies who will not be affected by these will profit, ressources will cause some wealth - think about Nauru, it was german at this time. For sure the colonials will not gain everything from this, but good education, good healthcare and infrastructure.
Deutsch-Südwest could - how ironical - be a hotspot for black refugees from southafrica, from 1925 on.
Sometimes - propably around 1950 some colonies will be left into liberty, others could gain statehood (esp. the pacific colonies (islands)), so the modern german state is completly different to our. I see around 130-140 million peoples, with the second highest living standard (behind the USA), dominating the european market - but mostly economically.
Germany will be the first state having satellites, nukes,but the state itself will not be the clichee so many britons had from it.
For sure they will finance the 3rd most powerful state on the planet - the osman empire - they could absorb a million or two of jewish refugees from either poland or russia, because here they will face a lot negative experiences.
In military matters germany would have a strong navy (nr.3 in the world, maybe nr4), with lesser ships who will be carrying nukes (reduce the need of expensive battleships - if you could destroy the hostile fleet with one missle-battleship - cost efficent), nuclear propulsion would also happen - just the first would be the germans. They will also try to get control of most uranium mines, that would cause another round of economic/libertyfighter conflicts)
h.) the osman empire:
again i disagree with stevep. The germans - needing the partner, esp. if no war errupt, they need the strategic situation with control of the straits, the possibiliy to threaten the british key routes to india - will massivly support them, sharing oil production trusts, building a massive railroad system in the osman empire.
With german help british sponsored rebellions will be slaughtered, deep in the arabian desert with no or only some surviving "terrorists" (if the state wins it is terrorism, if he loose they are liberty fighters)
With the control above most oil on that planet they will be kicked into wealth, but they share this with their trustworthy ally germany. Why are they trustworthy? Not because germans are good but because of the strategic situation. Germany is the only one who will NOT demand osman areas. The osmans will face modernisation progams, but overall they will be a mixture of the turkey of 1990 and the modern State of Saudiarabia.
Germany would try to motivate some of the jewish refugees to settle in palestine, but i cannot see the osmans allowing that in numbers. So no state of israel, maybe the british offer their Uganda for this (that would be a huge and clever thing for them, but honestly i see this only happen in 10%.
The osmans will be the clear nr3. in the world, closing the gap to germany, the many money will be invested - again the germans will profit from this, german-osman ties would be much stronger as the german-AH-ties, in some parts the germans will be fully depending on the osmans (oil), so the idea to produce nuclear energy in germany. But 60 years later (around 1975) a lot germans had worked in Osman empire, a lot osmans had studied in germany.
i.) the small other european nations:
with no wars they keep their colonies longer, have no destructions and no casulties.
The netherlands could get very rich, but they will allways feel a dark shadow in the east... or they join a german Mitteleuropa, that will gain em a lot, but also reduce their independence. I cannot say how they will decide, i see no "take over", they sometimes will loose their colonies (most of them), the question is if they would keep em longer, would separate more peaceful and have better relationships? Rotterdam will be - also for germany - the port to the world, with more and stronger german economies i could see the dutch getting more wealthy as OTL by that
Belgium - no wars, no destruction, no killings. They keep the congo, propably slaughter another million or two of the natives here. Sometimes the congo will go, belgium would survive this. Overall Belgium is more wealthy, its economy will be stronger
Denmark suffers no occupation in ww2, overall they could keep lots of merchants, trading.
Portugal - they get lots of money by selling most of their colonies, i have no clue if they use em wise or stupid. If they use it correctly they could benefit a lot.
Spain - do they suffer by their civil war? Or will it be avoided? With no communism, stronger neighbours not tolerant to facism you have only italy (if they turn brown) that would support franco. So personally i see spain having a short conflict and it ends after 4 weeks with some hunged generals. From here spain is a miracle, could turn into a lot directions.
Maybe a latin confederation with france and italy? That could benefit the people, for sure no franco-facism and no bloody civil war make spain a better place
greece: i doubt they risk a war with the osmans above the 2 battleships, so sometimes they fail in timing about the osmans, with the serbian brutal regime against non-serbs i see refugees reaching greece.
Overall - no ww2 - greece will benefit, but the impact will be not so big as in other countries
Bulgaria: could benefit a lot, had much more ground, no wars, so much more population. I see Bulgaria 30 years ahead of time, no communism and no wars do that. Bulgaria, the same for romania would be more developted.
Albania - could escape the italian invasion, maybe not. But i think they will - austria will not allow the italians to control the straits of otranto. Because of no war the pressure from germany and AH will be massive.
Serbia - they will establish their - quite brutal regime, causing a lot people in their area to leave. Serbia will try to destabilize AH, so sometimes AH will start an embargo, that will ruin serbia completly. This will cause more people leave serbia. But no ww1 and esp. no ww2 mean that serbia is still better as OTL, no socialism will help too.
Finally japan:
i cannot say i have any clue about japan. they could end in an nuclear holocaust - done by german nuclear missles, if they try to invade german colonies, they could turn china in the slaughterhouse of OTL, or they could face a revenge by russia that asswhip them from the continent. Or they avoid war, struggle internal (by killing each other the ultramilitarists do the world a favour) and sometimes they could - keeping korea - rise in economic terms. Here they could surpass in their "ideal" scenario economically the french and AH, but i doubt it. Personally i see em struggling to keep Korea, esp,. with their absolute brutal supression.
China - they will have a much better scenario, even if japan do their crimes. Because no communism. THe pressure to get back the colonial areas would ruin the conditions between china and most european countries, but i see - around 1998 the peaceful return of Tsingtau, now a massive modern base and an injection for the chinese and all other european areas
If you want to wank germany and china, they work together because tsingtau is a key hub for trade - but honestly as long as the kaiser is alive (1941) his anti-chinese racism will ruin this. The USA would gain a lot by china, but they also want to plunder it. So i see china get fully independent and clear its internal problems (warlordism) but that will cost only fragments of live compared to ww2 and the civil war.
China will grow, but will have a late start. In 1990 it will surpass japan, 2000 the osmans, 2010 germany and around 2020 the USA.
It will be a better and worse place as OTL in the same time.