stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 9, 2018 9:57:51 GMT
Absolutly.... i wrote earlier that 10.000s of such monsterbombers exist, able to drop 50-100k tonnage of explosives to wipe out on the conventional way enemy cities. But not only the big 5, also smaller states will either have them or will support them. The Nato would still try to frighten the WP from attack, so the dutch, danes, germans, italians and others would have 1000-10.000 bombers each, either in their own arsenal or paying for that by some larger state (e.g. USA). With nukes things are much cheaper, if you don´t overdo it - like OTL. Do not think the smaller countries will be able to afford such a huge numbers in bombers.
I'm not sure that Britain and France would either depending on how the economics develop. Their simply such massively expensive systems to maintain, especially in such numbers in peace-time. Also with the development of SAMs and advanced AA guns the ability of large bomber fleets could be dramatically reduced. You might see more development of missiles, both ballistic and cruiser. Their one use only but don't require manned crews and hence are cheaper per unit. This could end up with a stronger space race and possibly space based weapons systems which might create a new terror deterrent, which could take the place of nukes. This is likely to be more fragile than the current one as such launch systems would be exposed in space rather than hidden underground or in the oceans. However on the other side you could see a markedly more developed space race with Luna bases by several nations by now.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Jun 9, 2018 10:59:03 GMT
Absolutly.... i wrote earlier that 10.000s of such monsterbombers exist, able to drop 50-100k tonnage of explosives to wipe out on the conventional way enemy cities. But not only the big 5, also smaller states will either have them or will support them. The Nato would still try to frighten the WP from attack, so the dutch, danes, germans, italians and others would have 1000-10.000 bombers each, either in their own arsenal or paying for that by some larger state (e.g. USA). With nukes things are much cheaper, if you don´t overdo it - like OTL. Do not think the smaller countries will be able to afford such a huge numbers in bombers. okay, maybe 500 or 250 such bombers... the 50-100k tonnae of explosives was meant for all bombers of such bomber raid i think that without nukes many more people would die from 1945 on as in OTL.
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insect
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Post by insect on Jun 12, 2018 0:34:43 GMT
Then mustard gas .chemical weapons would eb considered mad in that time line i presume.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Jun 12, 2018 6:30:41 GMT
You might see the Rods from God approach taken, but that is extremely expensive and actually quite vulnerable. But, on the plus side, it gives far more incentive for space exploration!
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 12, 2018 10:38:45 GMT
You might see the Rods from God approach taken, but that is extremely expensive and actually quite vulnerable. But, on the plus side, it gives far more incentive for space exploration!
Basically what I was thinking but don't know how practical it would actually be. Plus as you say their very vulnerable and also there is probably more chance of a successful 1st strike, against your opponents own weapons, which could make things very unstable. Everybody would be more prone to a "use it or lose it" situation so one of those types of scares that occurred OTL could end up in a nasty war! True there wouldn't be the fall-out problem and you could end up with one side blackmailing the other into surrender, which could be very, very bad if the Soviets were the winners.
However I agree you would have a lot more incentive for space exploration and probably more importantly colonisation. More money probably going, at least at 1st into near Earth and Luna activities rather than deep space probes but once we get resources up there its easier to do a lot more. [Writing this post from a British O'Neill colony in L5 orbit in an ATL ]
One thing that hasn't been said is that does this affect nuclear power production? If so it would mean alternative powers sources would be needed and no nuclear ships, which changes some factors in the major navies in TTL.
Presumably the problem only affects nuclear fission? If not we have to have an alternative way for how stars work!! If fusion is unaffected then there is still the chance of nuclear weapons but they would be far, far harder to develop as you couldn't use a fission warhead as the trigger to create the conditions necessary for a fusion weapon. Which would probably make them impossible for the foreseeable future. On the other hand you might see more work on fusion reactions.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 12, 2018 15:26:50 GMT
The US will have to pump their numbers... we may see an obligatory service or forced conscription thing throughout the Cold War, since armies will become increasingly more valuable.
Can we see the USSR collapsing sooner? The economic strain of maintaining a large military rather than simply relying on nukes will take a toll on the fragile Soviet state.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Jun 12, 2018 17:43:20 GMT
The US will have to pump their numbers... we may see an obligatory service or forced conscription thing throughout the Cold War, since armies will become increasingly more valuable. Can we see the USSR collapsing sooner? The economic strain of maintaining a large military rather than simply relying on nukes will take a toll on the fragile Soviet state. Wait a second... with no nukes both sides have large bomber fleets in their armament. But you still can´t wipe out a city or large area of the enemy - because you lack that kind of WMD. To achive this, you need either a much more effective chemical weapon (nerve agents that could survive months or years in a contained area) or biological weapons. These are quite succsessfull, because you need one person say in New York, that start to infect half of the USA untill the illness starts. The "perfect" weapon cause death with say 40-50% ratio, but only after some very long, painfull illness. Basically you need a "slomo" Ebola... with say 3 months incubation time... if you do not try to keep your people alive you destroy the stability of the society (in modern democracies), but you can´t fight if 20% of the people of your country dies. These weapons don´t need huge and expensive preparations... if we drop this nasty book, we stay with the very expensive conventional bombers. These would go from "B29/32" to B52 and then to very enlarged huge B52 on steroids, able to reach an enemy area with 1000km/h from 10.000km distance and drop 150ts of explosives... All in "cheapish" planes, that could be massproduced. to protect em you need long range jets and Anti-Missle-weapons... all without nukes... But we will see no nuclear submarines that carries 12-24 Missles with 1-10 nukes for 10-15 billion dollar each ship/weapon system... so if you could build a modernised "better" B52 for say 10 Mio USD each, you could finance 1000 of these babies for one Boomer. The big problem with them - sometimes in the 60ties they are obsolete, because AA-weapons are to good. To move 10k tons of explosives with huge missles is way to expensive. The two superpowers will propably inform each other about some biological "superweapons", these could combine Influenca with Ebola, Yellow fiber, AIDS and cholera But smaller countries face a huge problem. Think about Israel. Nobody announce it, but everyone accept the fact that Israel has around 100-150 nuclear devices. So nobody really try to kill the israelis (wipe em out). The backslash of such move would be killing your country (OTL). Here - this is missing. So Israel needs to defeat much larger enemy countries - this could only work with either deadly chemical weapons (think about some "VX-gas Cairo-scenario") or biological weapons. Esp. the chemical weapons could be much earlier used instead of nukes. Nukes from Israel is the "last defence" - if some arabian enemy seem to "terminate the jewish people" as they promised "at home". If you face some ugly and problematic defeats - say 1973 the first days - you could - as long as you have an airforce - let the arabs in egypt suffer NOW. The same is true for the enemies of israel. Think about syria in 67, they could shell Jerusalem with chemical weapons... nobody would try this in OTL, not only because of the israelian nukes but also because of chemical weapons are banned. (better "were banned" - some people use em in syria now). In a world without nukes chemical weapons would be used more often, so syrian VX-gas or sarin-derivates would ne no "incredible crime" but common warfare of these days. As strange as it sounds - the world would be much bloodier as OTL, because the nukes made clear that if you use WMDs, the others will use their nukes to punish you.
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mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Jun 13, 2018 0:44:01 GMT
Japan surrenders before the Allied invasion. The bombing forces them out of the war.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 13, 2018 12:31:25 GMT
By the 60s, the US and USSR have developed artificial epidemic viruses perfectly adapted for each country's conditions, making them extremely effective when deployed correctly. This new kind of biological weapon attacks the host's body and spreads, having devastating effects.
For the Americans, it is known as Horseman-5V For the Soviets, it is known as VXX-9
Each nation works desperately to perfect their own weaponry. By 1967, America has three factories in Alaska, churning out hundreds of thousands of tons of Horseman-5V. The Soviets, lagging behind technologically, only have a single, less powerful factory in northern Siberia. By 1968, the US has 4,000,000 tons of Horseman-5V, enough to reduce Eastern Europe into an inhospitable, disease-ridden wasteland. The USSR, on the other hand, possesses 1.2 million tons of VXX-9, still enough to wipe out 99% of every human on the East Coast and southeastern Canada. They will spend the following years perfecting their technology, making it evolve so it can overcome natural human immunity many are randomly born with. If lucky, no nation will ever have to use their devastating weapon of hell.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 13, 2018 12:57:33 GMT
By the 60s, the US and USSR have developed artificial epidemic viruses perfectly adapted for each country's conditions, making them extremely effective when deployed correctly. This new kind of biological weapon attacks the host's body and spreads, having devastating effects. For the Americans, it is known as Horseman-5V For the Soviets, it is known as VXX-9 That sounds nasty, i start to wonder what is more ugly way to die, the viruses they can think of in a lab ore a nuclear bomb.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 13, 2018 14:02:40 GMT
By the 60s, the US and USSR have developed artificial epidemic viruses perfectly adapted for each country's conditions, making them extremely effective when deployed correctly. This new kind of biological weapon attacks the host's body and spreads, having devastating effects. For the Americans, it is known as Horseman-5V For the Soviets, it is known as VXX-9 That sounds nasty, i start to wonder what is more ugly way to die, the viruses they can think of in a lab ore a nuclear bomb. Its actually not to hard to genetically modify a virus at one's choice. They can make it as brutal and slow as they wish to be. They can modify the bubonic plague so it is immune to modern medicine, airborne and extra painful and gruesome. That's can also work as a propaganda machine: "Look what we can do! We're better and more powerful!" Really interesting nevertheless.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 13, 2018 14:03:58 GMT
That sounds nasty, i start to wonder what is more ugly way to die, the viruses they can think of in a lab ore a nuclear bomb. Its actually not to hard to genetically modify a virus at one's choice. They can make it as brutal and slow as they wish to be. They can modify the bubonic plague so it is immune to modern medicine, airborne and extra painful and gruesome. That's can also work as a propaganda machine: "Look what we can do! We're better and more powerful!" Really interesting nevertheless. So in the end instead of having thousands of nukes among the major powers, we have thousands of bombs filled with every virus the brains of those countries can think of.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 13, 2018 14:07:12 GMT
Its actually not to hard to genetically modify a virus at one's choice. They can make it as brutal and slow as they wish to be. They can modify the bubonic plague so it is immune to modern medicine, airborne and extra painful and gruesome. That's can also work as a propaganda machine: "Look what we can do! We're better and more powerful!" Really interesting nevertheless. So in the end instead of having thousands of nukes among the major powers, we have thousands of bombs filled with every virus the brains of those countries can think of. Yeah. Pretty much. If a biologic war does break out, it is likely many - as much as a few hundred thousand - may survive due to natural immunity. Also, keep in mind each country can easily prepare for such things. Spies can deliver specifications for the enemy virus, so a cure can be developed. It is easier to overcome a virus attack than an obliterating nuclear hell.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 13, 2018 14:09:44 GMT
So in the end instead of having thousands of nukes among the major powers, we have thousands of bombs filled with every virus the brains of those countries can think of. Yeah. Pretty much. If a biologic war does break out, it is likely many - as much as a few hundred thousand - may survive due to natural immunity. Also, keep in mind each country can easily prepare for such things. Spies can deliver specifications for the enemy virus, so a cure can be developed. It is easier to overcome a virus attack than an obliterating nuclear hell. So to attack a enemy who might have in the front lines cures to some, is to make sure to hit them with viruses they do not have a antidote for.
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Jun 13, 2018 14:14:44 GMT
Yeah. Pretty much. If a biologic war does break out, it is likely many - as much as a few hundred thousand - may survive due to natural immunity. Also, keep in mind each country can easily prepare for such things. Spies can deliver specifications for the enemy virus, so a cure can be developed. It is easier to overcome a virus attack than an obliterating nuclear hell. So to attack a enemy who might have in the front lines cures to some, is to make sure to hit them with viruses they do not have a antidote for. It would be a brutal intelligence war. Spies will be murdered. Operations sabotaged. Counter-intelligence and counter-counter-intelligence as well. It would be crazy.
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