mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on May 24, 2018 18:51:40 GMT
In July of 1974, President Nixon had a blood clot in his leg, which worried his doctors. If the blood clot moved to his heart or lung it could have killed him. The blood clot remained stationary and he lived another twenty years. What if he had died in July 1974? In August, after his state funeral, the smoking gun tape becomes public and destroys what is left of the late President’s reputation. The biggest change is that President Ford does not pardon a dead man. Ford’s popularity took a hit with the Nixon pardon. The election of 1976 was close. The national popular vote was Carter 50.1% Ford 48.0%. There were four close states with a total of 47 electoral votes: Hawaii 4 electoral votes Carter 50.59 % Ford 48.06 %, Mississippi 7 electoral votes Carter 49.56 % Ford 47.68 %, Wisconsin 11 electoral votes Carter 49.50 % Ford 47.83 and Ohio 25 electoral votes Carter 48.92% Ford 48.65 %. Switching those states would have given Ford the election since Carter won the Electoral College by a score of 297 to 241. During the second administration Democrats in Congress would not have had a veto proof majority in Congress, so Ford could have kept keeping a lid on spending. Ford might have been able to negotiate a better energy package then Carter did. So wind, solar and gasohol would be more common now. In foreign policy Ford would recognize the People’s Republic of China like Carter did. There would be changes in the two other biggest international relations stories of the OTL Carter years. Sadat still goes to Jerusalem but there is no Camp David summit. Kissinger uses shuttle diplomacy to negotiate an agreement. Kissinger is not as determined as Carter was. Can he get the Israelis to give up their Sinai settlements? I don’t know what kind of agreement Kissinger could have negotiated. In Iran, the Ford administration gives the Shah more military aid then the Carter administration did. Even though there is a bloody civil war, the Shah can stay in power through 1980. In that year’s presidential election there is no hostage crisis. Yet it is still a bad year for the party in power. There is not only a recession but also inflation. Walter Mondale, the Democratic candidate, can talk about the misery index. The Republican nominee Ronald Reagan is a weak candidate. Unless he was running against an incumbent in a time of crisis or running for reelection in a time of peace and prosperity, he would have been a weak candidate. Mondale can make use of his unpopular views, like his opposition to Medicare Mondale wins Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Florida. for an Electoral College victory of 342 to 196. Mondale uses the friendly Democratic majority in Congress to pass a health care program. Mondalecare is controversial but it eventually becomes so popular that it is a new third rail in American politics.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 25, 2018 11:29:55 GMT
In July of 1974, President Nixon had a blood clot in his leg, which worried his doctors. If the blood clot moved to his heart or lung it could have killed him. The blood clot remained stationary and he lived another twenty years. What if he had died in July 1974? In August, after his state funeral, the smoking gun tape becomes public and destroys what is left of the late President’s reputation. The biggest change is that President Ford does not pardon a dead man. Ford’s popularity took a hit with the Nixon pardon. The election of 1976 was close. The national popular vote was Carter 50.1% Ford 48.0%. There were four close states with a total of 47 electoral votes: Hawaii 4 electoral votes Carter 50.59 % Ford 48.06 %, Mississippi 7 electoral votes Carter 49.56 % Ford 47.68 %, Wisconsin 11 electoral votes Carter 49.50 % Ford 47.83 and Ohio 25 electoral votes Carter 48.92% Ford 48.65 %. Switching those states would have given Ford the election since Carter won the Electoral College by a score of 297 to 241. During the second administration Democrats in Congress would not have had a veto proof majority in Congress, so Ford could have kept keeping a lid on spending. Ford might have been able to negotiate a better energy package then Carter did. So wind, solar and gasohol would be more common now. In foreign policy Ford would recognize the People’s Republic of China like Carter did. There would be changes in the two other biggest international relations stories of the OTL Carter years. Sadat still goes to Jerusalem but there is no Camp David summit. Kissinger uses shuttle diplomacy to negotiate an agreement. Kissinger is not as determined as Carter was. Can he get the Israelis to give up their Sinai settlements? I don’t know what kind of agreement Kissinger could have negotiated. In Iran, the Ford administration gives the Shah more military aid then the Carter administration did. Even though there is a bloody civil war, the Shah can stay in power through 1980. In that year’s presidential election there is no hostage crisis. Yet it is still a bad year for the party in power. There is not only a recession but also inflation. Walter Mondale, the Democratic candidate, can talk about the misery index. The Republican nominee Ronald Reagan is a weak candidate. Unless he was running against an incumbent in a time of crisis or running for reelection in a time of peace and prosperity, he would have been a weak candidate. Mondale can make use of his unpopular views, like his opposition to Medicare Mondale wins Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Florida. for an Electoral College victory of 342 to 196. Mondale uses the friendly Democratic majority in Congress to pass a health care program. Mondalecare is controversial but it eventually becomes so popular that it is a new third rail in American politics.
That sounds pretty plausible. Also against Reagan in 1980 assuming he's the candidate for the recumbent Republicans is there there is probably another energy crisis, which might be even worse with a bloody civil war in Iran. Although the tougher line by Ford in foreign diplomacy may deter the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or if it doesn't possibly kills detente, which is likely to be better for Reagan than Mondale.
I'm less certain about Ford producing a better energy package than Carter as the latter was very pro-alternative energy IIRC and with the support of the Democrats is likely to have more power in Congress so I suspect Ford might do worse here?
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