Post by steffen on Jun 20, 2018 7:13:14 GMT
OTL the british and french - who desperatly tried to stop/avoid german unification evaluated if they could sponser the GDR, so it could survive.
The experts who went to the GDR came back and made crystal clear that the GDR was a done state in economic terms. To keep it "alive" they would have needed billions and billions of EUR (i choose the modern currency) AND anger the people in the FRG beyond the turn of no return.
Why? Because the germans mostly belived in "we have friends in france, UK, etc.". If these countries really try to stop the unification, the peaceful unification between the two separated germans after the breakdown of the cold war you destroy forever any hope that any german government (free elected by the will of the people IN germany) would work with these two countries.
The "fighting" against the french and british, but esp., against the french could vary from
a.) only not support any french move into a tighter EU (EURO - dead as a dodo if no unification - esp. with the french blocking it)
b.) open hostile moves in the range that is possible in that time (the EWG was fundamentally different to the EU - if germany in 1989/90 start some nasty moves against the french economy france blow up and its unemployment rate doubles. All in the legal range of german methods
c.) cut of any funding of "pro french" projects in the EU. That means - in that time all was 100%-acceptance-rule - the EU is dead. Germany would not support any "european" project, no enlarging in the east - with no unification you get no former WP-countries IN the EU. Why? because germany just say no.
d.) if next to france also UK and italy "fight against" the german unification germany would enlarge its moves against these weak economies, so both would suffer even worse, esp. in monetary aspects. 1990 the D-Mark was "the currency", next to the swiss franken. Kohl made clear to Thatcher what would happen if she don´t shut up - and her consultants made clear to her how serious these consequences would have been. Really
But the fun fact is - all this would not help them, the people of the GDR would still move to the FRG, leaving behind an empty shell, in that some die-hard-communists with lots of money by the french and british would still not modernize the country.
You need the Schieß-Befehl and the "Mauer" to stop that movement. Please explain how that could happen - french armed forces killing GDR-germans who try to move to the FRG? They could try this, but be suprised if not FRG-german armed forces, say some nice Leopards shoot them from their towers if that happens
Unification was a given the moment they were forced to open the border. Nothing stops that. Not in the long run.
Only the USSR could have avoided this, but they were ruined and needed money. A lot money - because just to leave the GDR was 120 billion D-Marks, if they stay you need much more money - in a true hostile country.
No western country in that time could have supported a regime in the GDR, surrounded by open countries that allows the people to travel (and so the GDR needs to close these borders the same way they closed the border to the FRG) that kills its people.
The negative consequences for france, UK and maybe italy (the 3 countries that had the biggest opposition to german unification in europe) would be devasting. Why? because it was germany who - in a deal - got their unification and gave up the D-Mark for that, accepted a lot things in the EU they would not agreed to.
To stop unification you need to enforce it in a 1945-style, invade, blow up the economy, kill the civilians, remove any political leaders or the democracy (okay, that didn´t existed in 1945).
Oh - if you do that, accept that you loose between 1000-10.000 occupation forces in that country, you would face open resistance. By the way, in germany you have between 20 and 40 million illegal weapons. Many of them would be used to kill the occupiers, with nil support in germany for these forces.
(but that is alone ASB par excellence, the british and french would struggle to find troops who would invade and work as occupation forces in germany - because why? should they fight a democratic state that want to unificate peacefully?
