James G
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Post by James G on May 16, 2018 21:27:32 GMT
How can East Germany survive the autumn of 1989?
The fall of the Berlin Wall wasn't planned. There had been protests before which hadn't seen the country overthrown. Not all of Western Europe wanted to see Germany reunited.
So how to keep the country together?
I know there was a plan by the Stasi for fake elections. Maybe a non-communist East Germany. Berlin Wall stays up but Soviet troops leave. That does leave the question of West Berlin and Western troops there. East Germany doesn't have to be a North Korea. Maybe a Belarus? The country could default on loans and still survive, yes? If the people aren't rioting in the streets everyday and the regime doesn't go kill crazy, can the country stay together?
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on May 16, 2018 22:01:10 GMT
How can East Germany survive the autumn of 1989? The fall of the Berlin Wall wasn't planned. There had been protests before which hadn't seen the country overthrown. Not all of Western Europe wanted to see Germany reunited. So how to keep the country together? I know there was a plan by the Stasi for fake elections. Maybe a non-communist East Germany. Berlin Wall stays up but Soviet troops leave. That does leave the question of West Berlin and Western troops there. East Germany doesn't have to be a North Korea. Maybe a Belarus? The country could default on loans and still survive, yes? If the people aren't rioting in the streets everyday and the regime doesn't go kill crazy, can the country stay together? It's very difficult to preserve the regime in 1989, especially without extreme foreign intervention which also wasn't really possible anymore. The East German people were too exposed to western information and the like to continue supporting the regime. Fake elections and the like wouldn't succeed in containing the deep issues of the DDR, and harder measures require a kind of strength that just wasn't there throughout the eastern block. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 16, 2018 22:09:27 GMT
How can East Germany survive the autumn of 1989? The fall of the Berlin Wall wasn't planned. There had been protests before which hadn't seen the country overthrown. Not all of Western Europe wanted to see Germany reunited. So how to keep the country together? I know there was a plan by the Stasi for fake elections. Maybe a non-communist East Germany. Berlin Wall stays up but Soviet troops leave. That does leave the question of West Berlin and Western troops there. East Germany doesn't have to be a North Korea. Maybe a Belarus? The country could default on loans and still survive, yes? If the people aren't rioting in the streets everyday and the regime doesn't go kill crazy, can the country stay together? It's very difficult to preserve the regime in 1989, especially without extreme foreign intervention which also wasn't really possible anymore. The East German people were too exposed to western information and the like to continue supporting the regime. Fake elections and the like wouldn't succeed in containing the deep issues of the DDR, and harder measures require a kind of strength that just wasn't there throughout the eastern block. I agree it would be hard to keep the country. West German TV broadcast direct into East Germany and Gorby wanted out. To me though the fall of the regime, nor how it went, was inevitable. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on May 17, 2018 1:14:44 GMT
The obvious comparison is with Korea, but in that case there was a longer history of separation, and for a good deal of time both were closed dictatorships, as opposed to West Germany which was always a democracy. There was very little chance for East Germany to assert a distinct identity from the West, or at least one that ultimately stuck.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 17, 2018 3:44:40 GMT
The obvious comparison is with Korea, but in that case there was a longer history of separation, and for a good deal of time both were closed dictatorships, as opposed to West Germany which was always a democracy. There was very little chance for East Germany to assert a distinct identity from the West, or at least one that ultimately stuck. Norh korea only shares two borders (China and South Korea), East Germany shares three (West Germany, Poland and Czechoslovakia), i think that also matters for a surviving East Germany as unlike China, Poland and Czechoslovakia will after the fall of the Wall will join the nations of the democracies isolating a surviving East Germany. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 17, 2018 9:27:36 GMT
The obvious comparison is with Korea, but in that case there was a longer history of separation, and for a good deal of time both were closed dictatorships, as opposed to West Germany which was always a democracy. There was very little chance for East Germany to assert a distinct identity from the West, or at least one that ultimately stuck. Norh korea only shares two borders (China and South Korea), East Germany shares three (West Germany, Poland and Czechoslovakia), i think that also matters for a surviving East Germany as unlike China, Poland and Czechoslovakia will after the fall of the Wall will join the nations of the democracies isolating a surviving East Germany. Technically I think it also has a short border with Russia, although it largely dropped links with that country after the collapse of the Soviet empire and communism. However the main borders are with China, which I think is still its main source of support and with S Korea. Plus the other points are very true. If you had democratic regimes in both China and Russia as well as S Korea its very difficult to see it surviving, especially if that was before it got nukes. Also as someone else said the presence of W Berlin inside the state complicates its survival. I think, for a brief period after the fall of the war, there was the thought that the parties formed of dissidents and opponents of the communists inside E Germany would have stayed as important political movements. Which probably wouldn't have prevented reunification but might have given it a distinct ongoing identity. However they quickly got swamped by branches of the existing West German parties. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 17, 2018 16:45:01 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 17, 2018 18:56:03 GMT
Interesting. Agree that if a separate E Germany had existed it would probably have been a markedly poorer one. The discussion of how the EU might have developed without a reunited Germany is interesting as well. Doubt it would have prevented a referendum on Scottish independence at some time but the idea that without it we might not have the Euro and some of the problems that occurred after the 2008 crash is interesting. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 17, 2018 19:03:17 GMT
Interesting. Agree that if a separate E Germany had existed it would probably have been a markedly poorer one. The discussion of how the EU might have developed without a reunited Germany is interesting as well. Doubt it would have prevented a referendum on Scottish independence at some time but the idea that without it we might not have the Euro and some of the problems that occurred after the 2008 crash is interesting. A far richer West Germany is something I hadn't considered either: interesting. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 17, 2018 19:07:44 GMT
Interesting. Agree that if a separate E Germany had existed it would probably have been a markedly poorer one. The discussion of how the EU might have developed without a reunited Germany is interesting as well. Doubt it would have prevented a referendum on Scottish independence at some time but the idea that without it we might not have the Euro and some of the problems that occurred after the 2008 crash is interesting. A far richer West Germany is something I hadn't considered either: interesting. Most likely due West Germany not having to pay for everything that needs fixing in East Germany. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 17, 2018 22:17:47 GMT
A far richer West Germany is something I hadn't considered either: interesting. Most likely due West Germany not having to pay for everything that needs fixing in East Germany. Yes that's what they said. Its been very expensive and the east is still a good way behind the west. Of course there is always the point that just because the money isn't spent in the east it might be absorbed/spent/wasted in some other way. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 20, 2018 19:41:05 GMT
Most likely due West Germany not having to pay for everything that needs fixing in East Germany. Yes that's what they said. Its been very expensive and the east is still a good way behind the west. Of course there is always the point that just because the money isn't spent in the east it might be absorbed/spent/wasted in some other way. Again, another way of looking at things economically. |
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steffen
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Post by steffen on May 22, 2018 12:15:27 GMT
Nope - with 1989 the fall of the GDR is not avoidable.
If you try to establish a scenario in that the western countries "forbid" FRG to unify with the GDR you start a chainreaction you don´t want to establish.
THe state GDR was fully rotten in 1989. They were for sure the "best" of the former Warsaw-bloc-states, but that was just a hollow picture. Everything was rotten. Their economy - non existing. Their society - waiting to explode (as it happened the second the big player USSR don´t support the regime in berlin anymore).
So if you achive by brute force - nothing else stops unification - that the FRG do NOT unify, you have still a failed state that is nondemocratic, but surrounded by states who will get rid of the soviet control.
Basically you need to finance the GDR with around 50 billion EUR a year for an unlimited time, have created a true hostile western germany (to anything the french, american or british want - no EU anymore WITH germany in it, forget it) that understand that the "friendship" with france or the USA is a lie -> that will alone cause huge troubles, the 3rd economy in the world learns that their friends, most much weaker in economic terms hate them, violate the will of the people and happily finance a dicatorship to supress germans (in it).
The french and british tried something similar in the beginning of the break down, recognizing quickly that
a.) the GDR was a lost cause
b.) they would turn west germany in a hostile neighbour - true hostile from the far left to the right- a neighbour who allready is way more powerfull in economic terms as UK and france
c.) would violate anything they publicy stay fore (liberality, democracy, free will of people).
You can´t solve this in 1989.
In west germany the people "belived" in friendship to france, USA and UK. If in 1989 till 1991 (that should be the time in that the GDR is pimped by UK and france) the unification (peacefully, democratic) of germany is stopped cold you end this - forever.
You will see germany turning against france, breaking them economically. In 1989 that is very easy... they were weak and they needed german support. Now france spend billions of EUR for keeping the GDR alive. So germany will not only not help france but will work AGAINST french economic interests. That cause a complete shutdown of the french economy... same for UK
these both states could now only
"invade" germany with the forces in it, declaring them a failed evil nazi state - have fun to
a.) explain this to the world society why they invade a democratic state how does nothing illegal
b.) explain it to the own people, why they suddenly supress (brutal) neighbours
c.) explain why you invade an allied (!) nation that is in the NATO.
Fallout of this is that the eastern european states, who got billions of euro (all in euro to make it more easy) from germany do not get much or no money from germany. THis ruins the economy here even more, just by germany NOT investing money in it.
The next "problem" you get - all the GDR citizens who want to leave the GDR (basially every single one beside the die hard communists, around 100k) have to be stopped. That can only happen by brute force - by the GDR? nope - you need french and british soldiers, shooting them death if they try to leave the GDR and enter the FRG. THe germans will not help them to stop them, why should they? these are germans. The same french and british forces are needed in the CSSR (until it fell apart) and poland.
Again the question: why would these want them in their countries to kill germans who just want to leave the country.
If you drop this point the GDR is an empty shell in 1991 - west germany has taken 10 million "refugees" and france and uk (the two historical states who tried to stop german unification) are forced to keep the GDR alive.
With no unification the FRG do not pay 120 billion DM (60 billion EUR) to the USSR to keep em alive. That has significant consequences for the rest of the world.
So we have
a democratic germany that is now a hostile nation for france and UK, with all in the EWG the germans will not allow anything that suits these two states. Basically the EU is dead. No new members, esp. no GDR as a new state.
Germany will use its superior economical power against france and UK, expect millions more unemployed in both states, that is the "answer" to the betraying of germany by the governments of france and uk in the "german question". The might of the DM will break the economies of both states quickly... so the overall economcial situation here is full of strikes, unemployment, lots of money is lost here.
If the americans had joined that "we do not allow unification"-club, they also will suffer. Beeing stronger they will not suffer much in economic terms, but the germans will not give any support, esp. in 1991 they will not pay the bill of the 2nd iraq war, as they did historically. Even from the UN the germans could retreat - esp. if this will not help but support the move of the "hostile" big 2 or 3.
FRG will propably still establish good relations to the USSR and Gorbatchev, if the british - desperate in economic terms try something internal in the nato germany even could leave nato. A defence alliance in that one member attacks or threatens another one is useless.
You need this ASB-level-behaviour of france, uk and USA to stop german unification and a still existing GDR.
The consequences of that behaviour is given by me.
OTL the french and british did EVERYTHING to avoid the german unification but they recognized that they would suffer much more by the moves they need to do. France get the EURO (even if that bit em in the butt much more 20 years later), UK was to weak and got from Bush senior the needed dose of reality (Thatcher) and in consequence she got removed for this.
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steffen
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Post by steffen on May 22, 2018 12:38:28 GMT
Interesting. Agree that if a separate E Germany had existed it would probably have been a markedly poorer one. The discussion of how the EU might have developed without a reunited Germany is interesting as well. Doubt it would have prevented a referendum on Scottish independence at some time but the idea that without it we might not have the Euro and some of the problems that occurred after the 2008 crash is interesting. If the british and french sabotage the german unification you have a different world in 2008. But for sure germany would not lift a finger for the french banks that crash. in that TL france is not only no "friend" but an enemy (again) of the FRG, france (and UK ) have to finance the GDR with billions of EUR, further weaken the position of their economy. The germans would not support Schengen if the british and french had stopped cold german unification before. They are the two only states who would do it, maybe with support by italy (they were OTL also against unification, but had no saying). The plot HOW the unification is stopped is important. a.) they forbid it, but the people leave the GDR. Germany is royal pissed about that, turning from a locomotion of european unification into a hostile state. That means, no further "goodies" for UK, germany allways say NO. THe EU is dead like a dodo, also germany will not accept any new state (you need 100% acceptance). There is no EURO, because france forced the germans to accept the EURO and gave for this its Yes to unification. With no yes to unification no EURO. That means germany is much stronger, the DM is WAY stronger and france, uk and the others suffers much more from the strong DM. That will be in the hands of a pissed of germany, that had realized that their "friends" are in reallity enemies. Have fun in a crisis if you need german help. You will not only not get it, but also see germany do moves that HURT the british and french (and italian) interests... nothing illegal, but legal things you can do on world wide markets. IN this scenario the GDR is a failed state, but it does not get help by the french and british. b.) they not only forbid it, but also support massive the GDR, keeping it allive. Basically the "friends and allies of germany" UK and france finance the brutal regime GDR to keep it alive, to kill their citizens. To do that they need control at the german-german border. I have no real idea how they do it, maybe they "take over" german government, establishing a french-british border control, in that they kill german refugees trying to leave the GDR. In the GDR you will not find many who would support that, so yes - you need armed forces (french and british, maybe also US forces -but i can´t see any american government survice that) who kill refugees fleeing the GDR. And you need to solve the problem that poland and the CSSR would not stop them. If they do it they get no support by the FRG, basically the FRG invest into these states if they allow germans from the GDR to enter free their states. If not, no money. So the both states not only need to finance the GDR but also poland and the CSSR to keep the east germans in the GDR. In that scenario the FRG is not only secretly hostile to the french and british but OPEN hostile. It is a occupied state, with the french and british forces fighting a BRUTAL war against germans how kill all british and french on sight in germany. That is a true fun aspect, because in the same time they are "theoretical" allies... basically germany calls the nato to protect em against french and british (nato member!) forces... if NATO do not answer that call and fight the british and french forces in germany, NATO is dead. It is either "accept germany unify" or one of the two scenarios... OTL they included the unification in a broader european unification that also accepted the eastern european states in the EU, here you achive the opposite. Germany will be a hostile country, the world press, including any liberal press in their own countries will support germany against evil france, UK, maybe italy. the balkanwar will create interesting fallouts... germany will recognize any country in seconds, or its government is removed from power and the british-french occupation forces fights the german army and civil organistions in germany. Nobody in germany was against unification. There existed a minority who thought that it should be done in a slower pace, but you have 100% of the germans in west and east who wanted to unify. To stop that you need armed forces and many billion EURO to finance the broken state GDR. You achive nothing else as a dead EU, a new cold war between germany and the free world and the UK/France/Italy(maybe) that forced the germans to not unify, you keep the eastern europeans out of the EU... destabilize the russian state further (that needed URGENTLY the 120 billion DM to survive - oh wait - fun fact: UK and france need to finance this... hehe.. so the strain in even greater... not only need the GDR billions, the two countries also finance the russian retreat out of the GDR; propably you need french and british soldiers IN the GDR to supress the germans here to leave the country... ah, these pictures... slaughtered familes, shot by british soldiers, just they wanted to leave the brutal GDR... trabbies full of dead babies, with french armed cars in the background... yes, that is something the world press would love to public...all the time the governments have to explain why these two states suddenly slaughter helpless civilians who want to LEAVE a dicatorship). Beyond this, the germans of the GDR leave it and enters the FRG. PERIOD. They called not for nothing "wenn die DM nicht kommt gehen wir zur DM" (if the DM not comes to us, we leave and go to the DM). And no, no german government in the west would support a "two germanies"-solution. No one. For the germans in the west the eastern germans were just germans. Just think about Wales and think about some foreign state force UK to forbid the walisers to enter the rest of UK. |
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insect
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Post by insect on Jun 19, 2018 22:47:17 GMT
East and west would be a lot poorer east germnay would reunite with west out of sake of survival.
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