To Rebuild a Shattered World

IOTL the most famous person from the House of Bagrationi was Pyotr Bagration, one of Russia's generals who played a role in the Napoleonic Wars. He came from Georgia.

At this moment Georgia would be dominant, due to their potential reconquest of Circassia. I found out that Circassia at one point was controlled by the Georgian Kingdom, so there is a huge chance of the Circassians staying Christian instead of converting to Islam.

IOTL the Zhengde Emperor was irresponsible and was a major factor in the rise of the Eight Tigers eunuch faction, which were known for their corruption. Here, their corruption would be a major factor in deciding whether or not the Ming would fall to the Mongols in the north or a new dynasty similar to the Shun IOTL. 

Yes, the King of Korea during this time period was a notorious tyrant who makes Ivan the Terrible look tame. He has an even bigger violent side in addition to his disdain for academics. ITTL, his insanity and violence would result in a vicious civil war that might also spread to the rest of Korea. Ironically, the Joseon Civil War might end up making Korea more prepared for future conflicts. That is because IOTL 200 years of peace had made Joseon unprepared for the Imjin War with Japan, where as Japan at this time period is still in the Sengoku phase. 

Japan would be briefly covered in the next update, followed by going back to Europe where the Age of Exploration is starting to pick up.

The Mamelukes are nearing their end, but the question is, how would they collapse? The cut off of the Circassian slave trade would also have an effect on who gets to succeed who, although we may also see a separate Egyptian kingdom arise from the ashes of the fallen Mamelukes.

Georgia and Armenia will be paranoid at the presence of the Ottomans, which is why a couple of decades down the road, they might form a dynastic marriage with Russia. At this point the Russians haven't attacked the Crimean Khanate yet, but a simple error on the Crimeans' part would result in the annexation of Crimea into the Muscovite state. At the same time, the other Tatar statelets are also nervous at the growing toleration of the Shia presence in the Kazakh Khanate, so that might be another factor. Right now, the Kazakhs are close to being considered a Persian vassal. I will go back to North Africa later on, but there are loose ends that I have to take care of, namely Japan.

Yep, the very same.

Now the next update will focus more on Japan, but seeing as I don't have much knowledge on the Sengoku period, any assistance on Japanese history during the Sengoku period would be immensely helpful.

The Dutch are still in Japan as OTL ore has that change already.

Case Study #14: Japan and Western Europe

Japan during this time period was locked in a series of battles involving various daimyos who were in reality vassals of the Ashikaga Shogunate. Often, various vassals and other samurai clans often resorted to violence and murder in order to advance the interests of their own clan. The Ashikaga Shogunate fell into a crisis when its previous shogun, Ashikaga Yoshihisa, had died childless. The Hosokawa clan had supported one candidate, Ashikaga Yoshizumi, while Ashikaga Yoshitane was supported by the Ouchi clan. The latter ascended to power in 1490, but three years later in 1493 he was overthrown and replaced with the candidate backed by the Hosokawa clan. The downfall of Ashikaga Yoshitane had provoked a war between the Hosokawa and Ouchi clans, to which both sides suffered great losses. Yet the reign of Ashikaga Yoshizumi would ultimately fail when the Ouchi clan, together with various supporters of the deposed shogun, launched an attack on the Hosokawa stronghold in Kyoto, where the Ashikaga shoguns resided. Though the attack was successful, the Ouchi clan sustained severe losses in their struggles against the Hosokawa. However, in 1496 several assassins hired by the Ouchi clan had succeeded in assassinating Hosokawa Masanaga. Retaliatory measures were taken by the Hosokawa clan, resulting in the murder of Ouchi Yoshioki's father in the outskirts of Yamaguchi. The Ouchi clan were also known for being one of the two clans who utilized sea power in their campaigns. Another clan, the Mori, also used their sea power to their advantage. Realizing the potential of uniting the two maritime based domains, the Ouchi and Mori clans formed an alliance in what has become known as the Pact of Kurashiki of 1498, where the Ouchi and Mori clans would provide assistance to each other in the event that a third party attacks either one of them. It was this alliance that provoked the Hosokawa clan into attacking the Mori clan in the summer of 1498, precipitating the Mori-Hosokawa War. Though that clan war only lasted three weeks, the reactions of the Hosokawa had forced the two allied clans into a realization that the Hosokawa posed a threat to their ambitions. Therefore, the Mori-Ouchi alliance decided to take matters into their own hands and attack the Hosokawa directly. In the winter of 1498, the two allied armies struck at Kyoto where the Hosokawa kept their positions. The Siege of Kyoto of December 1498-January 1499 was as bloody as any other sieges that occurred in Europe and Asia. When Kyoto finally fell to the Ouchi-Mori alliance, the first thing they did was to round up the entire surviving Hosokawa clan and had them summarily executed. Even the cadet branches of the Hosokawa clan like the Saikyu clan was not spared the brutal reprisals that followed. The offspring of Hosokawa Masanaga were murdered, but not before Hosokawa Takakuni was spirited away from Kyoto with the help of a few supporters and made his way into the port of Osaka. There, Hosokawa Takakuni met up with a group of masterless samurai called the ronin and three ships full of Wokou pirates. Seeing the main Japanese Home Islands as unsafe, Takakuni would abandon all pretenses to his clan's leadership and blend in among the Wokou, choosing to use his childhood name Rokuro as his cover.

Before the advent of the Three Japanese Domains where three dominant super-domains were established of Satsuma, Choshu and Echigo, most of the Japanese provinces were controlled by other surviving clans. The fall and destruction of the Hosokawa clan had resulted in two other clans who were vassals of the extinct clan were forced to swear allegiance to the Ouchi-Mori alliance. As a result of this forced subjugation, one of those clans, the Chosokabe clan, was rewarded with the entirety of Kyushu. Within Kyushu, the Ouchi clan also managed to make a peace treaty and an alliance with another Kyushu-based clan in the summer of 1499, the Shimazu clan. Though they were neutral in the Mori-Hosokawa War, the promises of greater wealth and an expansion of the Ouchi-Mori alliance to include the Shimazu, Shimazu Yoshihisa accepted the offer. The later Satsuma Principality's territory composed of the lands controlled by the Chosokabe and Shimazu clans while the later Choshu Principality's territory consisted of the Chugoku and Kansai regions, controlled by the Ouchi-Mori alliance. The largest Japanese principality was the Echigo Principality, and it was not established until the early 1560s with the lands coming under the control of the Uesugi and Takeda clans through the marriage of Nagao Kagetora and Takeda Shingen's youngest sister Nene. Though central authority lies with the Ashikaga clan, the foundations that would be built for the rise of Satsuma, Choshu and Echigo were already laid through the alliances of these clans. Within Japanese society during the Sengoku period, agriculture dominated the landscape, and there were relatively few industries that produced mostly weapons, though luxury items were also made within Japan. Trade with China and Korea was handled through the Kyushu based merchants, often with ties to the Shimazu and Ouchi clans. There was also an independent nation that also conducted trade with the other two East Asian giants called the Kingdom of Ryukyu, though in reality they were a vassal state of the Ming Empire. Mercantile trade was the dominant life blood of Ryukyu's economy as its geographic position between East Asia and Southeast Asia also allows them to be influenced by outside events beyond their borders. For instance, the ruler of Ryukyu at that time, Sho Shin, had been alerted to the presence of pirates from southern Japan arriving at his domain's shores. Among those pirates was a man who went by the name of Rokuro, but when 'Rokuro' was brought before the presence of Sho Shin, he noticed the mannerisms that the young man displayed. Upon further interrogation, 'Rokuro' was forced to reveal his true name as Hosokawa Takakuni, the survivor of the Hosokawa Clan Massacre that occurred when Kyoto fell to the Ouchi-Mori alliance. Although Sho Shin was not impressed with the impromptu appearance of the last Hosokawa heir, he allowed 'Rokuro' safe refuge as long as he proved himself useful. He also allowed the Hosokawa survivor to join the Ryukyu military, seeing his prowess and abilities as useful for future campaigns.

In 1501, Sho Shin began to expand his naval force in an attempt to bring in the rest of the outlying islands under his control. For this purpose, he hired half of the Wokou pirate fleet to bolster his own, something that was controversial as it was terrifying. Most of the Wokou were ronin, or masterless samurai, so Sho Shin's proclamation that he will become the new master of all the ronin was tremendously popular with most of Ryukyu's military force, though it was something his successors would have to deal with when the Wokou raids eventually picked up and in 1547 one of the future Wokou pirates who went by the name of Kohata Kusaka would eventually descend upon a tiny Japanese trading post called Aparri and in an insane attempt to build a personal 'kingdom' for himself and his followers[1]. In the meanwhile, the other ronin who were skeptical of Sho Shin's offer to become their master were eventually lured in by promises of money, a home of their own and personal favor of the king himself. The next year, Sho Shin went further and created an all-ronin palace guard to protect not only the king, but several Imperial palace staff. It was said that the presence of the now ex-ronin in Sho Shin's court had intrigued and irritated the visitors from the Japanese Home Islands, who were not accustomed to seeing masterless samurai reduced to bodyguards and mercenaries. However, the ronin who refused Sho Shin's services opted to remain as mercenaries, operating on behalf of various minor states throughout Asia. The presence of the ronin and the wokou also had a large effect on the Ryukyu military as well: Japanese style katanas and kodachis were adopted by the main Ryukyuan military units, and ronin in the service of Sho Shin began to teach their apprentices how to forge a good katana. Japanese sword making skills became dominant in Ryukyu, as well as sailing prowess. Eventually most of the ex-ronin had intermarried with the local Ryukyuan people and mixed children arose from this union. A large number of the mixed Japanese-Ryukyuan people have also settled in the future Viceroyalty of Nueva Asturias[2], as well as Borneo and Malacca where they kept their culture but adopted the religions of the host nation. Even a few Japanese-Ryukyuan women had been reported to have ended up as slaves in the Imperial Harem of the Ottoman Empire, though it was rare. In fact, in the 1700s a Japanese noblewoman originally called Haruka Yasaka had been captured by rival clansmen and sold as a slave to a Malaccan slave ship, but was purchased by a wandering Ottoman merchant ship who also specialized in the acquisition of 'indentured servants' from among the Japanese-Ryukyuan population of Malacca. Haruka Yasaka would eventually rise from within the Ottoman Imperial Harem to become the wife of Sultan Orhan III. She came from the minor Yasaka clan originating from eastern Kyushu but moved to the Ryukyu Kingdom.

Because he feared the possible leak of information regarding his true identity would reach his enemies back in Japan, 'Rokuro' had instead adopted the rarely used surname Kinjo to indicate someone who lives in Ryukyu. To the wokou who settled in the outlying islands around the kingdom, Rokuro Kinjo was just another pirate, but an educated pirate with an outstanding ancestral pedigree. The former Hosokawa survivor did more than just tended to his farms: he also built merchant ships carrying manufactured Ryukyuan goods bound for China and SE Asia, especially the Malaccan Sultante, where Ryukyuan goods were highly prized. In addition, 'Rokuro Kinjo' was also responsible for helping the Ryukyuan authorities track down and detect any agent from the Japanese Home Islands among the refugees who made their way into the islands. Impressed with his work, Sho Shin had promoted 'Kinjo' to captain of a Ryukyuan fleet of 12 ships guarding the islands. In addition, the Ryukyuan king also gave 'Kinjo' the task of exploring areas beyond Ryukyu for suitable human habitation. In May of 1503 'Kinjo' and 200 Wokou pirates along with 1,200 Ryukyuan soldiers sailed from Shuri southwards. During the expedition, Yaeyamajima and Miyakojima were conquered and annexed into the Ryukyu Kingdom, with the various lords there submitting to the authority of Sho Shin. The expedition took seven years to complete, mostly because one of Kinjo's ships had reported back to him about an existence of an unknown island that was much bigger than all of the islands of the Ryukyu Kingdom combined. It all started with the journey from Yaeyamajima and the ship was meant to sail southward, but a strong wind had veered it off course until the spotted land several days later. The spotted land, when explored around the coast, was much bigger than most of Ryukyu's islands. Upon arriving at the northeast region of the unknown island, the Wokou noticed the eerie silence and were ambushed by a lowland tribe called the Kavalan tribe. The Kavalan tribe was Austronesian in ethnic origin, but they were lowlanders, as opposed to the various highland tribes of the unknown island that Kinjo would later name it Kawahatajima [3], after the area that they landed, which was a flat field divided by a river flowing into the sea. Most of the Wokou and regular Ryukyuan soldiers eventually built settlements in the city that was later called Tohohoshi [4]. The Kavalan tribe and the Ryukyuan soldiers formed an alliance where both sides pledged to respect each other's terrain in exchange for resources. The settlement also attracted hostility from two more tribes that made this discovery: the Atayal and the Truku. In the winter of 1503, Kinjo and his army was forced to defend Tohohoshi from an approaching force of 300 Truku tribesmen and the Kavalan tribesmen intervened to find out what happened. It was clear that the two hostile tribes didn't want the Ryukyuan presence on their island, so Kinjo decided to make a deal with the Atayal and the Truku tribes: he would bring them into an alliance alongside the Kavalan in exchange for a non-aggression treaty. The chiefs of those two tribes were hesitant to accept, but when Kinjo threatened to bring in his fleet to clear them out, they instead chose to fight. Thus a short campaign was launched by Kinjo and his men with the aim of consolidating control of eastern Kawahatajima and expelling the two hostile tribes positioned close to Tohohoshi. Within two and a half months, both sides sustained significant losses and both Kinjo and the two tribes fighting his army reached a new deal: the Ryukyuans would provide supplies to the tribes now under their control in exchange for their allegiance to Sho Shin and the Ryukyu Kingdom. The two chiefs accepted, and in January of 1504 Kinjo and the Atayal and Truku chiefs sailed for Shuri where they bowed down in front of Sho Shin. Impressed by the report of a new discovery of Kawahatajima, Kinjo would be appointed as the first “Aji” of Kawahata, or petty ruler. Kawahatajima, and especially the cities of Tohohoshi (translated as eastern star) and Kitahoshi [5] (translated as northern star) would become the center of economic activity in Kawahatajima, but they would also acquire a notorious reputation as a den where most of the pirates would congregate. It was the huge presence of the Wokou in Kawahatajima that led to the Ming-Ryukyu War of 1559 (the Chinese name for Kawahatajima), in which a Ming invasion force attempted to invade the Ryukyu Kingdom in order to crack down on piracy in the East China Sea.

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Western Europe – The Age of Colonization

Although the rise of the exploration missions began with the Columbus brothers coming under the service of the Crown of Aragon, the man most credited with the discovery of the New World as it was called was the Portuguese sailor Joao Alvares Fagundes, in whose honor the new continent was called Fagundesia. The journey started in Lisbon in the spring of 1497 when Fagundes led a fleet of seven ships and sailed in the northwest direction. The journey went through the Azores Islands where Fagundes restocked supplies and recruited more sailors for his project. His journey went a little northward but kept it in a westward direction, but he had to deal with unfriendly winds and three storms were recorded by one of his crew. In the midst of this exploration, Fagundes lost two ships to the storm, with the survivors of the sunken ships taken in by Fagundes's own ship. Finally by the spring of 1498 Fagundes spotted land within the vicinity. The land that Fagundes and his crew discovered was rather strange: the weather there reminded them of the ones that are common in northern England and even in the Low Countries. The Mikmaq tribe was the first tribe to encounter the Portuguese expedition crew, and the meeting was rather tense before Fagundes asked them where they were. The Mikmaq war chief replied that they were in the land under the inhabitation of the Mikmaq tribe, and that they are defensive when it comes to strangers. Even so, Fagundes insisted on building a small port to repair his ships and build a supply depot for further explorations. To make the deal sweeter, one of Fagundes's crew gifted the war chief a horse he rode on and told the Mikmaq that should they come back to their home in Portugal, they will petition the king there to allow the export of horses to the lands of the Mikmaq. The Mikmaq chiefs finally agreed, and the first settlement in Fagundesia was offically built as the town of San Venerio [6], officially under the control of the Crown of Portugal until the Second Hundred Years' War when England seized the port and annexed it to their growing empire under the new name Warwicksville. San Venerio was named in honor of St. Venerius, and because the port town was built and completed on the 4th of May, 1498. From San Venerio, Fagundes and the surviving ships continued to sail along the coast, mapping it out in the process. Sailing eastwards towards another unknown island that Fagundes would call San Valerian [7], he noticed a much colder weather there, and another different tribe that settled there long ago. Fagundes was forced to call off the expedition due to the unpreparedness of his fleet for the Arctic weather, he opted to return to San Venerio where he can recuperate and make another exploration round southward instead.

At the same time, the Columbus brothers also started their journey at the same time as Fagundes did in 1498. Unlike their Portuguese counterpart, the Columbus brothers too much longer due to stopping by the Canary Islands for resupplying followed by a southern journey before turning westwards. Like Fagundes though, the Columbus brothers also encountered three storms and unfriendly winds. However, they were unluckier because four ships out of the original nine were sunk in the storm. BY the same time as the discovery of Fagundesia, the Columbus brothers had spotted land. Though they tried to explore it by the coastline, they were shocked at the absence of inhabitants of the region and wondered if they had made it to any outlying islands far away from China or Japan. Finally discovering one of the actual islands in the region, Christopher Columbus christened it San Salvador Island and began to explore the adjacent islands. In 1499 Christopher had made another discovery: an island south of San Salvador island had an unusually long coast, but when it was drawn on a map, it looked like a piece of flesh that was cut into strips. The island was discovered on July 5th, which was the feast of St. Numerian, which is how the island was christened San Numeriano [8]. The Columbus brothers sailed in the opposite direction, intending to discover more of San Numeriano's secrets while exploring the coastlines. Unlike Fagundes, the Columbus brothers had no intention of merely setting up a place to stay while there were more lands to discover. By the time the San Numeriano exploration mission was completed, it was decided that Bartholomew Columbus would stay in San Salvador to administer the new colony while Christopher would return to Castile and Aragon to report on his findings to Ferdinand II of Aragon. In San Salvador, Bartholomew realized the importance of building a new town as a symbol of national prestige in a changing world. To this end, he authorized the construction of a port, a church and several small houses to shelter the entire crew of his ship. The settlement, which eventually grew into the center of economic activity in the region, was christened as San Alfonso [9] in honor of the heir, Prince Afonso of Portugal. The naming was controversial, as Prince Afonso was from a Portuguese dynasty, and such a name was rather inappropriate, considering that San Salvador and the nearby San Numeriano were now colonies under the control of the Crown of Castile. Yet the pioneers who came from other parts of Castile, as well as the annexed region of Granada, proved valuable in the construction of the new colony. It was in San Salvador that another exploration northward was planned and launched with the aid of Diego Columbus, Christopher Columbus's firstborn son.

Unlike Portugal and Castile, Aragon itself didn't have an explorer to help charter a new colony. Although Ferdinand II of Aragon employed the Columbus brothers, their employment came under the authority of the Crown of Castile, meaning that the Crown of Aragon didn't have any authority to give its own exploration project to the Columbus brothers. That didn't stop Ferdinand II from seeking out Aragon's own explorer for hire. By a stroke of luck, Amerigo Vespucci was employed by the Florentine House of Medici's financial branch in Seville and was about to head towards Cadiz to establish a new branch when Lorenzo Medici had given him a letter, telling him that instead of Cadiz, he would build a new financial office in Barcelona. Barcelona made perfect sense, as its location close to France and the Italian states made it easier for the Medici family to expand their banking operations. Seeking connections through his Italian links, Ferdinand II of Aragon contacted the Medici family in August of 1498 to see if they would find someone that could fund an exploration mission on behalf of the Crown of Aragon. Lorenzo wrote back, saying that Amerigo Vespucci would be a suitable explorer for Aragon, but another surprising news was uncovered: the House of Medici would personally become the sole financier of all exploration missions for the Crown of Aragon only. The House of Altoviti subsequently became the sole financier of Castile's exploration missions while the Gondi family, another Florentine banking family, would finance Portugal's exploration missions. The three Florentine families also benefited from the expansion of new shipyards that would build exploration ships for the sole purpose of helping the three Iberian kingdoms with their ambitions. Starting in 1500, the Crown of Aragon would send Amerigo Vespucci and seven ships on an exploration mission in the newly discovered continent of the Fagundesias. Tracing the same route that Christopher Columbus took, Vespucci also encountered the same problems his predecessors did, namely the storms and unfriendly winds. However, the storm also had an unintentional effect of sending him on a rather different direction, as his own discovery of the land had brought him to what is now the northern coast of South Fagundesia. Arriving at a spot where his ships had spotted a local indigenous tribe, Vespucci and his fleet would later set up their own settlement, Nueva Ragusa in the land Vespucci will eventually call Nueva Majorca. Unlike San Alfonso and San Venerio, Nueva Ragusa (later renamed to Reina Isabella after Prince Afonso's wife Isabella of Aragon) started out as a relief station where sailors had built huts for themselves. Nueva Ragusa/Reina Isabella [10] was also the first settlement in all of the Fagundesias to allow the immigration of Iberian Jews, and in fact in 1521 the first 500 Sephardic Jews from all over Spain will settle in northwest Nueva Majorca in the newly created Autonomous Captaincy General of Nueva Sidonia, in the new town built primarily by Sephardic Jewry called Nuevo Toledo [11]. Out of the three colonies administered by each separate Spanish Crown, Nueva Majorca would grow to become one of the most vibrant and diverse colonies in the Spanish Empire while Nueva Alhambra would be the most homogenous colony, with mostly Castilian but a few Basque and French Catholics fleeing from Savonarolist inspired anti-Catholic violence.

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[1] As it will be covered in future updates, Kohata Kusaka is a fictional character on the same vein as Mirko Kasun/Azad Komoroglu but he would serve as a Japanese Wokou expy of the infamous Chinese pirate Limahong, who attempted to create a state in what is now Pangasinan Province of the OTL Philippines called the Wangdom of Pangasinan.

[2] Viceroyalty of Nueva Asturias is TTL's name for the Spanish East Indies. Of course, it would also be fought between various powers as well, from the Ming, the Spanish (or rather, either the Portuguese or the Aragonese), the Ottoman Empire and Russia.

[3] Kawahatajima, or Kawahata Island, is TTL's name for Taiwan/Formosa.

[4] Tohohoshi is TTL's name for Yilan County, Taiwan.

[5] Kitahoshi is TTL's name for Keelung city, Taiwan.

[6] San Venerio is TTL's name for Sydney, Nova Scotia.

[7] San Valerian is TTL's name for Newfoundland.

[8] San Numeriano is TTL's name for Cuba.

[9] San Alfonso is TTL's name for Nassau, Bahamas.

[10] Nueva Ragusa/Reina Isabella is TTL's name for Carupano, Venezuela.

[11] Nuevo Toledo is TTL's name for Barranquilla, Colombia.

The deals that the Mori-Ouchi alliance had made with several other Kyushu based clans were mostly  former Hosokawa vassals who switched allegiance to the Chosokabe clans. Though the Chosokabe doesn't have a formal overlord status on Kyushu, it is acting like a stand in until they have the ability to make minor clans their vassals.

Although there isn't much interaction between Ryukyu and Japan, let us say that the presence of the Wokou (pirates) in Ryukyu would be a major source of political tensions between Ryukyu and the three East Asian giants. Moreover, because Ryukyu is a tributary state of the Ming Dynasty, that might also have a nasty repercussions down the road. We're already seeing the Ryukyuans colonize what is basically OTL Taiwan, but that island is going to be far more valuable to them than to China or Japan in particular. Having "Rokuro Kinjo" (aka: Takakuni Hosokawa) be discovered by a hostile Japanese clansman would also be a major concern for the Ashikaga Shogunate.

As we will see in the next update, the origins of the Second Hundred Years' War will be covered in its entirety. France in particular might also covet some colonies in the New World (or as we now call it ITTL, Fagundesia), but in the long run they might have to try their luck in southern Africa and Australia. You've pretty much hit one of the reasons for the Second Hundred Years' War: the conflict between the Catholics and Savonarolists. Even Eastern Europe wouldn't be spared from such a conflict, as would the Ottoman Empire. I wouldn't be surprised in the future if there may be an Asian theater of the S100YW where the Spanish would fight the Ottomans, the Ming, or the Japanese at the same time or different times.

Also, within that future update we would also see how the Kingdom of Lithuania would fall apart.