James G
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Post by James G on Apr 20, 2018 13:19:54 GMT
I was reading about the history of the Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez and how that was named after the leader of the Mexican government (Juarez) who had his administration there during the French-installed Empire of the 1860s.
The formation of the empire and its rule by a Hapsburg was contested from the beginning and to the very end by Mexicans themselves. There were volunteers to help fight and a US naval blockade after the end of the US Civil War, but it was Mexicans who defeated Maximillian I in the end. However, the indirect US actions are always credited with helping to end the empire with these strong blows in cutting off Mexico from the outside.
So if the USA doesn't move quickly on from its civil war - leading to no blockade and no other pressure on Mexico (army on the border) - will the rebels in Mexico be defeated in the end? Or will Maximillian still go down eventually to rebels?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2018 13:25:37 GMT
I was reading about the history of the Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez and how that was named after the leader of the Mexican government (Juarez) who had his administration there during the French-installed Empire of the 1860s. The formation of the empire and its rule by a Hapsburg was contested from the beginning and to the very end by Mexicans themselves. There were volunteers to help fight and a US naval blockade after the end of the US Civil War, but it was Mexicans who defeated Maximillian I in the end. However, the indirect US actions are always credited with helping to end the empire with these strong blows in cutting off Mexico from the outside. So if the USA doesn't move quickly on from its civil war - leading to no blockade and no other pressure on Mexico (army on the border) - will the rebels in Mexico be defeated in the end? Or will Maximillian still go down eventually to rebels? Only as long as the Second French Empire when they lose their war in 1870 and as long as the United States does not intervene after they have won the Civil War in 1865. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 20, 2018 13:42:30 GMT
Ah, I'd forgot about France losing to Prussia. That would be quite the blow.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2018 13:44:16 GMT
Ah, I'd forgot about France losing to Prussia. That would be quite the blow. Also if I remember correctly, the United States has plans to intervene in Mexico after they had won the Civil War. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 20, 2018 13:47:15 GMT
Ah, I'd forgot about France losing to Prussia. That would be quite the blow. Also if I remember correctly, the United States has plans to intervene in Mexico after they had won the Civil War. They put an army on the border and have had plans for war, but my speculation was over a political decision not to: something to do with the occupation of the defeated Confederacy but that was away from the main point of US non-interference. |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 20, 2018 14:24:33 GMT
I was reading about the history of the Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez and how that was named after the leader of the Mexican government (Juarez) who had his administration there during the French-installed Empire of the 1860s. The formation of the empire and its rule by a Hapsburg was contested from the beginning and to the very end by Mexicans themselves. There were volunteers to help fight and a US naval blockade after the end of the US Civil War, but it was Mexicans who defeated Maximillian I in the end. However, the indirect US actions are always credited with helping to end the empire with these strong blows in cutting off Mexico from the outside. So if the USA doesn't move quickly on from its civil war - leading to no blockade and no other pressure on Mexico (army on the border) - will the rebels in Mexico be defeated in the end? Or will Maximillian still go down eventually to rebels? Okay, so... I can tell you with absolute certainty (Miguel, my friend here, is Mexican), that the US had not the major factor in bringing down the monarchy. It's pretty irking for the Mexicans, when the US says they "saved them", but historians agree it was in Napoleon III's interests to pull the plug sooner or later. The US simply sped the process up. It is very unlikely the Empire would've lasted much anyways. Juárez was already holed up in Paso Norte (modern-day Ciudad Juárez) and his army was severely outmatched by the French. Perhaps Maximillian can score a few victories and nominally get Juárez to surrender, or he gets to flee. However, the liberals would've fought till the very end, sabotaging French operations and making their lives miserable. Massive strikes, boycotts and major assaults, hindering economic productivity and forcing the French to bail out. The US would've eventually proceed with pressuring the French anyways. This, combined with an unstable society and a fragile imperial government, would set the stage right for Napoleon III to call it quit. If Juárez is not killed, he will call for a general uprising against Maximillian. The Mexican liberals - backed by the US - would clash against the Emperor, who would be unable to suppress the rebellion without French help. Either Maximillian flees the nation, or gets executed, just like OTL. In reality, Mexico is really not a very good place to mount an Empire. The Mexicans wouldn't give in. |
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insect
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Post by insect on Jul 12, 2018 1:51:04 GMT
A few decades..
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2018 3:00:14 GMT
Doubt it, the Second Empire will face constant internal turmoil, it has no backers to keep it afloat. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 12, 2018 8:32:46 GMT
Doubt it, the Second Empire will face constant internal turmoil, it has no backers to keep it afloat.
I think that was the key problem. From what I've read, albeit not a lot, Maximilian might have made a decent head of state and had adopted as his successors the grandsons of the 1st Mexican emperor, Iturbide. Maximilian was himself pretty liberal and sought to pass reforms to help the poor especially as he was shocked at their plight. However he was very much tied to the more conservative factions and the French who opposed such moves.
Just checking his Wiki entry I hadn't realised he had only accepted the crown in 1864, having rejected an earlier offer. Possibly if he had gone earlier and managed to build up a power base of popular support of his own he might have established a lasting dynasty, although that would have meant finding a way to avoid being dependent on the French support and also how his adopted heirs behaved. Also even if this had happened the US, and/or alternatively a successful Confederacy would have been hostile to his regime, especially if it looked like establishing a successful Mexico.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2018 14:53:30 GMT
Did a timeline where after the Second French Empire left due the crisis with Prussia, Austria-Hungary steeped in to aid and bolster the Second Mexican empire, but doubt that will happen in real life.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 12, 2018 14:56:10 GMT
Did a timeline where after the Second French Empire left due the crisis with Prussia, Austria-Hungary steeped in to aid and bolster the Second Mexican empire, but doubt that will happen in real life.
I'm not sure it really had the resources, especially naval and given its own political and economic problems. Plus it would be a lot easier for the US to deter or defeat than Imperial France.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2018 14:57:11 GMT
Did a timeline where after the Second French Empire left due the crisis with Prussia, Austria-Hungary steeped in to aid and bolster the Second Mexican empire, but doubt that will happen in real life. I'm not sure it really had the resources, especially naval and given its own political and economic problems. Plus it would be a lot easier for the US to deter or defeat than Imperial France.
Like this: What if: United States versus 2nd French Empire (1865) |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 12, 2018 15:11:52 GMT
Gods I had forgotten we had already discussed this. As I mentioned there I don't think Franz Joseph liked Maximilian claiming the Mexican crown but if he died in captivity either in the US or because the US handed him over to the Mexicans it could see a reaction, not just in Austria but also in many of the other monarchies as it would probably be seen as offensive. Actually see Maximilian_I_of_Mexico_Downfall, which mentions the reaction to his death sentence.
It should be noted that Maximilian's regime lasted a year after the French withdrawal and a fair number of Mexicans continued to fight for him so he wasn't without support. If things had been a bit different its not impossible for him to establish a stable regime provided the US doesn't intervene.
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