James G
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Post by James G on Apr 1, 2018 18:13:01 GMT
How far into the future - realistically - would it be before war is completely done by drones?
I'm not thinking complete AI either (though some of that will happen in certain systems) but just drones doing everything from aircrews to tank drivers to dismounted patrols through villages to supply truck drivers. The full monty.
A hundred years?
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 1, 2018 18:39:04 GMT
Nah, I'm thinking forty years, tops. We need a big war to remind ourselves how brutal and costly they are. If such things happen, world governments will realize it's time for a change and invest their energies developing drones. Already there are bomber and recon drones this very moment, so it won't take long before the military is run by robots.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 1, 2018 20:29:31 GMT
A few decades, I think. But a lot depends on the development of electronic warfare. That's where a lot will be decided.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 1, 2018 20:30:52 GMT
A few decades, I think. But a lot depends on the development of electronic warfare. That's where a lot will be decided. Wonder if the UN will try to ban warfare with drones in the future. |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 1, 2018 20:39:42 GMT
A few decades, I think. But a lot depends on the development of electronic warfare. That's where a lot will be decided. Wonder if the UN will try to ban warfare with drones in the future. Ban them? That doesn't sound right. Drones would save lives, by nothing sending people into combat. Of course, there is the morality question and the fact that drones are used to target innocent people. In that case the UN would prohibit certain aspects, but not drones altogether. However, I wouldn't discard the whole anti-drone movement. Uncertain whether they will achieve something significant, though. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Apr 1, 2018 20:48:01 GMT
A few decades, I think. But a lot depends on the development of electronic warfare. That's where a lot will be decided. Wonder if the UN will try to ban warfare with drones in the future. There might be attempts, but especially wealthier countries would really prefer using drones. Especially ones that struggle to find enough people to man everything. Drones are much easier and safer. So they would block all such attempts. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 2, 2018 11:50:23 GMT
It will never happen totally as there will always be the need for human decision making. At least unless there is a major breakthrough in AI in which case there may be no humans left.  |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 3, 2018 0:40:27 GMT
It will never happen totally as there will always be the need for human decision making. At least unless there is a major breakthrough in AI in which case there may be no humans left. You'll always have human generals and marshals doing the decision-making. However, they would simply type in the desired command and let the robot troops do the rest. This would allow truly talented soldiers to take prestigious positions, and since you don't have dumb humans doing poorly in the battlefield, once's commanding abilities can really stand out. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Apr 3, 2018 18:08:13 GMT
What we forget is how much of future wars will occur solely in cyberspace. The launching of drones might not even be necessary.
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 3, 2018 18:57:10 GMT
What we forget is how much of future wars will occur solely in cyberspace. The launching of drones might not even be necessary. That is true. I recall Iraq's air defence network going down in 2003 due to a US cyber attack. That was fifteen years ago. So much more can be done now so maybe there will be no need for a fight at all with damage done from afar in the future. |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 4, 2018 0:53:46 GMT
What we forget is how much of future wars will occur solely in cyberspace. The launching of drones might not even be necessary. That is true. I recall Iraq's air defence network going down in 2003 due to a US cyber attack. That was fifteen years ago. So much more can be done now so maybe there will be no need for a fight at all with damage done from afar in the future. But that means any fat middle-aged freak named Chuck living in some creepy basement can completely devastate the world's very entire Internet network at the press of a button, robbing civilization of its most vital element since the mastery of fire, causing unprecedented damage and annihilating us as this planet's dominant species. 200,000 years of human civilization, wiped out in a millisecond. It's like if a time machine is suddenly invented and becomes publicly available. In less than 20 minutes you'll have some nut job screwing something and erasing the universe. Are we sure this is a road we're willing to go down to? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 4, 2018 15:36:02 GMT
That is true. I recall Iraq's air defence network going down in 2003 due to a US cyber attack. That was fifteen years ago. So much more can be done now so maybe there will be no need for a fight at all with damage done from afar in the future. But that means any fat middle-aged freak named Chuck living in some creepy basement can completely devastate the world's very entire Internet network at the press of a button, robbing civilization of its most vital element since the mastery of fire, causing unprecedented damage and annihilating us as this planet's dominant species. 200,000 years of human civilization, wiped out in a millisecond. It's like if a time machine is suddenly invented and becomes publicly available. In less than 20 minutes you'll have some nut job screwing something and erasing the universe. Are we sure this is a road we're willing to go down to? Are we sure we have a choice in the matter? That could be the truly frightening question. |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 4, 2018 15:50:29 GMT
But that means any fat middle-aged freak named Chuck living in some creepy basement can completely devastate the world's very entire Internet network at the press of a button, robbing civilization of its most vital element since the mastery of fire, causing unprecedented damage and annihilating us as this planet's dominant species. 200,000 years of human civilization, wiped out in a millisecond. It's like if a time machine is suddenly invented and becomes publicly available. In less than 20 minutes you'll have some nut job screwing something and erasing the universe. Are we sure this is a road we're willing to go down to? Are we sure we have a choice in the matter? That could be the truly frightening question. Perhaps not. But we can always count on the UN to provide legislation to countermine the disastrous effects, like, regulatory measures and stuff. |
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Post by alternatehistoryfox on Nov 25, 2020 3:30:24 GMT
The thing is, that heavily relies on how technology will evolve in this context. We've already seen proxies of nations like Iran able to hack drones with Sat-links. It isn't beyond the realm of possibility that nations like Iran or North Korea develop something that would turn any drone outside of rather specific conditions (like, say, the operator being within 300 meters range or having an AGI stuffed into it) and since they'll have armies of supporters to keep developing said system, will make drones effectively obsolete.
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