lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 2, 2018 12:51:49 GMT
Coming back to the question of what would have happened in 1914, there was a strong belief that there would be a Third Balkan War between Greece and Turkey. This is discussed in a Youtube video by Sean McMeekin around 16 minutes from the start. However, it wasn't expected that this would lead to a general war (Ferguson showed that stock markets did not expect war even during the July Crisis) and the pattern of alliances was different with Russia possibly attacking Turkey but Britain building battleships for Turkey (note Germany was building a battlecruiser for Greece). More generally, although there were influential voices in Germany calling for war before the alliance against them grew too strong, everyone agreed that Germany had no hope without Austro-Hungary and Austro-Hungary did not want a war with Russia. Indeed, whilst Franz Ferdinand was alive, it was unlikely that Austro-Hungary would become involved in a war with anyone. Further, the Kaiser had always insisted on peace during crises before 1914. He probably only backed Austro-Hungary in 1914 because he had been Franz Ferdinand's friend and felt his honour was involved. Fascinated, so there might be a war but instead of a major war that would engulf the planet it would be a war that would engulf the Balkans again. |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 2, 2018 15:58:25 GMT
Coming back to the question of what would have happened in 1914, there was a strong belief that there would be a Third Balkan War between Greece and Turkey. This is discussed in a Youtube video by Sean McMeekin around 16 minutes from the start. However, it wasn't expected that this would lead to a general war (Ferguson showed that stock markets did not expect war even during the July Crisis) and the pattern of alliances was different with Russia possibly attacking Turkey but Britain building battleships for Turkey (note Germany was building a battlecruiser for Greece). More generally, although there were influential voices in Germany calling for war before the alliance against them grew too strong, everyone agreed that Germany had no hope without Austro-Hungary and Austro-Hungary did not want a war with Russia. Indeed, whilst Franz Ferdinand was alive, it was unlikely that Austro-Hungary would become involved in a war with anyone. Further, the Kaiser had always insisted on peace during crises before 1914. He probably only backed Austro-Hungary in 1914 because he had been Franz Ferdinand's friend and felt his honour was involved. Interesting video. I must agree with the guy. |
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jasonsnow
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 2, 2018 16:00:09 GMT
Japan during the early 20th century was NOTHING compared to today's Japan. Certainly they did won against Russia, but that was the result of terrible management rather than military superiority on the Rising Sun's part. Japan's economic boost came as a result of its interference in World War I, forging strong relations with the Allies and kickstarting an industrial and political revolution. Before that, Japan was a very traditional and conservative nation ruled by warlords, clans and social classes, with the Emperor ejecting very little authority. Japan was always very isolated and dictated by its ancient customs and traditions, so there's a chance they'll stay that way deep into the 30's. That means no big deal happens in Korea or Manchuria, and there is no place for an ideological revolution in Southeast Asia. Having in consideration all this, there's a chance China will remain a republic following the Qing Dynasty's downfall, and France might hold on to Indochina for longer, seeing no communist revolution erupts. Korea might remain a kingdom, but sooner or later it will need to change its ancient ways and convert into either a constitutional, unified monarchy or simply a republic. This means no North Korea and no Korea-Japan hate, which is present even to this day. No, that was before the Meiji Restoration. Japan had a strong conservative culture even after that, which lead to the militaristic Japan of the 1930's and 40's but it also modernised technologically to a sizeable degree and also in some ways socially and politically. Its industrialisation and cultural development was to some degree shallower than much of western Europe but it was definitely a significant power. Well, shiver me timbers... I still believe Japan would not compare in any way to OTL Japan, but I see your point. No anime coming out of there, though. |
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