MOABE: What if Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not assassinated.

I'm not really sure. I could see a war still breaking out because of some other event, the great powers really were in a terrible situation in that regard. But on the other hand, a little more time could have seen some alliances switch again, and of course, it gives us more buildup too.

It could go either way. Germany was concerned about the growing strength of Russia and there was a view in the Germany military that by 1917 Russia would be too strong for it to be ignored while Germany knocked out France, which of course they failed to do anyway. True the war suggests this estimation of Russia was exaggerated their strength by a large measure.

This means, depending on the interpretation of the German leadership that either they seek to trigger a war before then or if the powers avoid a clash for another 2-3 years things change. Other powers had a similar over-estimation of Russia so you could see an Anglo-German-Japanese alliance, as all three powers were concerned about Russia in various areas. Not sure where this leaves France but Britain would probably insist on no German attack on France as part of any alliance and make a similar warning to France. [It wouldn't want a perceived Russian threat to be replaced by an even greater threat of a Germany totally dominant on the continent west of Russia itself].

There are assorted other factors to consider. While Russia was making considerable progress it was still potentially deeply unstable because of the autocratic nature of the regime and the failure of the Czar especially to see that change must come. Germany had its own problems with the growing pressure for social change opposing the domination of the Prussian junkers. Britain had a still fairly limited franchise and the growing tension between the two extremes in Ireland. Lots of problems that could spark either a general war or keep one or more powers highly distracted for several years. Or you get a re-allignment with the aim of 'containing' Russia which might or might not lead to a major war.

Jason - by the mention of the sandwich did you mean that Princip had stopped for a sandwich, which was why he was at the cafe? Or that in OTL the bystander was eating a sandwich and hence unable to tackle him? I have read that he was ready to give up as it seemed he wouldn't get a shot so was taken by surprise when the wrong turning occurred and he suddenly got the chance.

One other thing of course is that, provided another assassin doesn't get him F-F survives and in a few years will become emperor of Austria. Apparently he was very determined to change the regime, giving more power to more of the minorities and especially the Serbs, which put him on a collision course with the Magyar aristocrats, who I think he despised so there's a good chance of civil war inside the empire but of it surviving and probably having a longer existence. Also I could be remembering it wrongly but I think he had doubts about the alliance with Germany.

Wait you say that a Sandwich could have prevented the deaths of millions.

Well, there is a pretty big chance fascism would've not risen. The ancient notions of colonialism, imperialism and monarchic rule would've lasted much longer, possibly offsetting several major discoveries and ideas that built modern society. Communism is also kind of unlikely to happen. Nicholas II was much hated in Russia--the whole tsar line, in fact--and the Russian WWI disaster was the last drop. The Russo-Japanese war devastated the Russian military, especially the navy, making the tsar one of the most unpopular rulers in Russian history.

Perhaps not getting involved in another disastrous war would've saved Nicholas long enough for his offspring to become the new tsar. If things go lucky, the new tsar may hear the social outcry and change things for the better. If not, some kind of new revolution might begin anyways. If its not communism, then some less-extreme branch of it or even a democratic movement. If there is no WWI issue, Lenin--who is exiled in Switzerland--might not return and his communist movement might not happen at all

This would perhaps result in your run-off-the-mill, regular republic: The Russian Republic.

  Not certain there is no WWI but at least a decent chance and if so fascism could well never occur.  Communism was already about as an idea so its likely to come to power somewhere but it could be a less extreme form and/or in a far less important state.  If so it might blunder on until either it reforms or collapses under its own weight.  Its likely to become just another failed ideology unless someone say invades to crush it, giving it a martyr status.

  Society is likely to be socially a bit more conservative in the short term but then there was a lot of pressure for reform, political, social and otherwise and the shock of WWI, while it discredited a lot of the older regimes also prompted a conservative reaction.  Also without the war there will still be the tension and international rivalry between the great powers so those who feeling their falling behind with be under pressure to reform.  You are likely to see at least the Ottoman and Hapsburg empires either drastically reform or largely collapse within a decade or so.  Russia and to a lesser degree Germany also have strong pressures for change opposed by established reactionary political interests so reform when it comes there could come fairly violently.

  Colonial empires will probably last longer without either/both world wars, especially as racism will be less discredited without the examples of Germany and Japan especially in WWII.  However there is likely to be another conflict sooner or later and if it involves coalitions its likely to be very long and bloody.  Hence you might see similar nasty ideas as fascism and hard line communism gaining support after such a conflict.  [Say there's a realignment against a very powerful looking Russia and a long war say in the early 1920's you might push things back a decade or so but have a not too dissimilar path, or totally different regimes and ideas emerging.]

Why is Japan feudal and backwards, they defeated the Chinese and Russians, also Germany might question your view on France and Britain that rule supreme.

  No, that was before the Meiji Restoration.  Japan had a strong conservative culture even after that, which lead to the militaristic Japan of the 1930's and 40's but it also modernised technologically to a sizeable degree and also in some ways socially and politically.  Its industrialisation and cultural development was to some degree shallower than much of western Europe but it was definitely a significant power.