archangel
Chief petty officer
Posts: 115 
Likes: 69
|
Post by archangel on Mar 28, 2018 10:30:56 GMT
A replacement of Salazar by a successful rebellion from more liberal members of the opposition might increase the likelihood of Franco attacking Portugal. Avenging Salazar by subsuming Portugal into Spain? Something like that from Franco? Therefore, a blatant act of international aggression and Portugal under clear attack. That seems to work. I was referring to the fact that opposition to the left of Salazar (centre-right disappointed with the hijacking of the 1926 coup into a dictatorship; members of the old vaguely centrist dominant party of the 1st republic; assorted members of the centre-left; and the limited number of communists) will want to support the allies. It possible, perhaps with Hitler and Mussolini pushing him but Franco was highly reluctant to get involved directly in the wider war because of the state of the Spanish economy and the need for food especially from the US, which is likely to be cut off, either directly or by a British blockade if they took action against Portugal. Possibly the best bet is something that replaces Franco as Spanish leader by someone who's more an hard line fascist and not as clear sighted about how disastrous such a move might be for Spain. I think we are world-building here! It could be Salazar forcibly replaced by a more democratic minded person and/or Franco being replaced by a more pro-German leader. In Franco's case, imagine he dies in an accident after consolidating power and is replaced by Ramón Serrano Suñer ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ram%C3%B3n_Serrano_Su%C3%B1er) |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,975
Likes: 49,378
|
Post by lordroel on Mar 28, 2018 14:17:52 GMT
Avenging Salazar by subsuming Portugal into Spain? Something like that from Franco? Therefore, a blatant act of international aggression and Portugal under clear attack. That seems to work. I was referring to the fact that opposition to the left of Salazar (centre-right disappointed with the hijacking of the 1926 coup into a dictatorship; members of the old vaguely centrist dominant party of the 1st republic; assorted members of the centre-left; and the limited number of communists) will want to support the allies. I think we are world-building here! It could be Salazar forcibly replaced by a more democratic minded person and/or Franco being replaced by a more pro-German leader. In Franco's case, imagine he dies in an accident after consolidating power and is replaced by Ramón Serrano Suñer ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ram%C3%B3n_Serrano_Su%C3%B1er) What this of a idea, on 25th of April 1934 a military coup in Lisbon, Portugal overthrows the António de Oliveira Salazar government, a year later in 1935 the Third Portuguese Republic is founded, when in 1936 the Spanish Civil war breaks out the Third Portuguese Republic supports the Republicans, the Republicans still lose but many of them flee to Portugal, in 1939 a bomb detonates in a airplane with Francisco Franco on board, the Spanish later determine that a organization out of Portugal called the Spanish Maquis is behind it, a new Spanish leader is elected who is also Pro-German vows to end the reign to terror by the Spanish Maquis operating out of Spain itself and Portugal and give the Portuguese a ultimatum which the Portuguese government refuse and which result that Spain invades. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,835
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on Mar 28, 2018 14:59:12 GMT
I was referring to the fact that opposition to the left of Salazar (centre-right disappointed with the hijacking of the 1926 coup into a dictatorship; members of the old vaguely centrist dominant party of the 1st republic; assorted members of the centre-left; and the limited number of communists) will want to support the allies. It could be Salazar forcibly replaced by a more democratic minded person and/or Franco being replaced by a more pro-German leader. In Franco's case, imagine he dies in an accident after consolidating power and is replaced by Ramón Serrano Suñer ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ram%C3%B3n_Serrano_Su%C3%B1er) What this of a idea, on 25th of April 1934 a military coup in Lisbon, Portugal overthrows the António de Oliveira Salazar government, a year later in 1935 the Third Portuguese Republic is founded, when in 1936 the Spanish Civil war breaks out the Third Portuguese Republic supports the Republicans, the Republicans still lose but many of them flee to Portugal, in 1939 a bomb detonates in a airplane with Francisco Franco on board, the Spanish later determine that a organization out of Portugal called the Spanish Maquis is behind it, a new Spanish leader is elected who is also Pro-German vows to end the reign to terror by the Spanish Maquis operating out of Spain itself and Portugal and give the Portuguese a ultimatum which the Portuguese government refuse and which result that Spain invades. Well that does sound like a possibility.  Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,975
Likes: 49,378
|
Post by lordroel on Mar 28, 2018 15:02:19 GMT
What this of a idea, on 25th of April 1934 a military coup in Lisbon, Portugal overthrows the António de Oliveira Salazar government, a year later in 1935 the Third Portuguese Republic is founded, when in 1936 the Spanish Civil war breaks out the Third Portuguese Republic supports the Republicans, the Republicans still lose but many of them flee to Portugal, in 1939 a bomb detonates in a airplane with Francisco Franco on board, the Spanish later determine that a organization out of Portugal called the Spanish Maquis is behind it, a new Spanish leader is elected who is also Pro-German vows to end the reign to terror by the Spanish Maquis operating out of Spain itself and Portugal and give the Portuguese a ultimatum which the Portuguese government refuse and which result that Spain invades. Well that does sound like a possibility. Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. But what about the Spanish Maquis operating out of Portugal idea then and them killing Francisco Franco, ore would that not work as long as António de Oliveira Salazar is in power. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,835
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on Mar 28, 2018 15:13:46 GMT
Well that does sound like a possibility. Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. But what about the Spanish Maquis operating out of Portugal idea then and them killing Francisco Franco, ore would that not work as long as António de Oliveira Salazar is in power. I suspect it wouldn't work because a Salazar regime would seek to suppress such a movement. Not just because he shared a fair number of political views with Franco but because allowing what would be seen to be a terrorist group performing assassinations and other violent actions in a neighbouring country is always dangerous for a country. Especially when its markedly smaller than the neighbour being attacked. As Serbia, albeit after a lot of fighting, found out in 1914-15.  |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,975
Likes: 49,378
|
Post by lordroel on Mar 28, 2018 15:15:06 GMT
But what about the Spanish Maquis operating out of Portugal idea then and them killing Francisco Franco, ore would that not work as long as António de Oliveira Salazar is in power. I suspect it wouldn't work because a Salazar regime would seek to suppress such a movement. Not just because he shared a fair number of political views with Franco but because allowing what would be seen to be a terrorist group performing assassinations and other violent actions in a neighbouring country is always dangerous for a country. Especially when its markedly smaller than the neighbour being attacked. As Serbia, albeit after a lot of fighting, found out in 1914-15. Well our options ore ideas to have Spain invade Portugal are shrinking, unless anybody has a idea ore suggestion. |
|
jasonsnow
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 569
Likes: 27
|
Post by jasonsnow on Mar 29, 2018 1:59:33 GMT
It is possible to say Portugal would've somehow been felt threatened by the German and Italian involvement in the war. Fearing a Communist-Fascist takeover or even an invasion from Spain, not to mention strong political opposition by the leading democratic powers, Portugal and Franco may have attempted a nonaggression treaty. If such negotiations failed, Portugal would defend their borders and seek aid from France and the UK. Also fearing aggression from a Franco-led Nazi puppet regime, UK would provide assistance, something Franco would view as threatening. In turn, Franco would probably allow German forces free transit across Spain in exchange for protection, although this is debatable, seeing how Franco would desperately want to avoid a war or get entangled in Europe's conflicts, as this would threaten his unstable regime. However, if things continue to worsen, it is probable an Axis-Allied clash might occur in Iberia.
An interesting effect would be that German forces may attack France through Spain, quickly overrunning Andorra and pressing Allied defenses north. This would shorten the need of an extensive French war and cement Germany's foothold in Europe. With Franco's help, they could create a strong, defended Western Europe able to withstand an Allied attack. If Portugal is invaded, it would provide a critical base for U-Boats and strengthen Germany's position in the North Atlantic.
Most likely, Germany would avoid a Portuguese Allied alliance by any means necessary.
|
|
jasonsnow
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 569
Likes: 27
|
Post by jasonsnow on Mar 29, 2018 2:01:54 GMT
It is true Lisbon-Madrid relations were strong, but the Portuguese president still feared Germany, and it was in Lisbon's main interests to maintain good relations with the UK nevertheless.
|
|
archangel
Chief petty officer
Posts: 115
Likes: 69
|
Post by archangel on Mar 29, 2018 19:08:34 GMT
What this of a idea, on 25th of April 1934 a military coup in Lisbon, Portugal overthrows the António de Oliveira Salazar government, a year later in 1935 the Third Portuguese Republic is founded, when in 1936 the Spanish Civil war breaks out the Third Portuguese Republic supports the Republicans, the Republicans still lose but many of them flee to Portugal, in 1939 a bomb detonates in a airplane with Francisco Franco on board, the Spanish later determine that a organization out of Portugal called the Spanish Maquis is behind it, a new Spanish leader is elected who is also Pro-German vows to end the reign to terror by the Spanish Maquis operating out of Spain itself and Portugal and give the Portuguese a ultimatum which the Portuguese government refuse and which result that Spain invades. Well that does sound like a possibility. Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. This is a list of revolts against the Estado Novo (and the military dictatorship that preceded it during a few years) www.iscsp.ulisboa.pt/~cepp/revoltas/ditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htmtranslate.google.pt/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iscsp.ulisboa.pt%2F%7Ecepp%2Frevoltas%2Fditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htm&edit-text=&act=urlA successful opposition coup against Salazar during the Spanish Civil War would either see a neutral government or moderately pro-Spanish Republic (friendly to the anti-communist parts of the Spanish Republican government). I don't see them doing more than allowing volunteers to fight in Spain or providing a safe heaven for exiles. In any case, in the ww2, it would be pro-allied Neutral or clearly aligned with the allies. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,975
Likes: 49,378
|
Post by lordroel on Mar 29, 2018 19:12:25 GMT
Well that does sound like a possibility. Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. This is a list of revolts against the Estado Novo (and the military dictatorship that preceded it during a few years) www.iscsp.ulisboa.pt/~cepp/revoltas/ditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htmA successful opposition coup against Salazar during the Spanish Civil War would either see a neutral government or moderately pro-Spanish Republic (friendly to the anti-communist parts of the Spanish Republican government). I don't see them doing more than allowing volunteers to fight in Spain or providing a safe heaven for exiles. In any case, in the ww2, it would be pro-allied Neutral or clearly aligned with the allies. But was the Estado Novo a regime already, it is only a couple years old. |
|
archangel
Chief petty officer
Posts: 115
Likes: 69
|
Post by archangel on Mar 29, 2018 19:22:50 GMT
This is a list of revolts against the Estado Novo (and the military dictatorship that preceded it during a few years) www.iscsp.ulisboa.pt/~cepp/revoltas/ditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htmA successful opposition coup against Salazar during the Spanish Civil War would either see a neutral government or moderately pro-Spanish Republic (friendly to the anti-communist parts of the Spanish Republican government). I don't see them doing more than allowing volunteers to fight in Spain or providing a safe heaven for exiles. In any case, in the ww2, it would be pro-allied Neutral or clearly aligned with the allies. But was the Estado Novo a regime already, it is only a couple years old. It is traditionally defined in Portuguese History that the Estado Novo started with the adoption of the 1933 constitution, that solidified the position of Salazar in a model of government per his preferences, and, by then, he had became indispensable to the Military officers that wished to make the transitional nature of the military dictatorship intro a permanent dictatorship, and who had no talent for governance. Another tool was the fear many felt for a return to the unruly years of the first republic. This was not supported by everyone, since many had done the coup to fix the many flaws of the first republic, and there also still many supporters of the first republic within the armed forces. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,975
Likes: 49,378
|
Post by lordroel on Mar 29, 2018 19:29:49 GMT
But was the Estado Novo a regime already, it is only a couple years old. It is traditionally defined in Portuguese History that the Estado Novo started with the adoption of the 1933 constitution, that solidified the position of Salazar in a model of government per his preferences, and, by then, he had became indispensable to the Military officers that wished to make the transitional nature of the military dictatorship intro a permanent dictatorship, and who had no talent for governance. Another tool was the fear many felt for a return to the unruly years of the first republic. This was not supported by everyone, since many had done the coup to fix the many flaws of the first republic, and there also still many supporters of the first republic within the armed forces. Always wanted to see the return of the Portuguese monarchy, Manuel II of Portugal died in 1932 and he seems to left no heir ends that dream of a return of a Kingdom of Portugal. |
|
James G
Squadron vice admiral
Posts: 7,608
Likes: 8,833
|
Post by James G on Mar 29, 2018 21:49:20 GMT
Well that does sound like a possibility. Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. This is a list of revolts against the Estado Novo (and the military dictatorship that preceded it during a few years) www.iscsp.ulisboa.pt/~cepp/revoltas/ditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htmtranslate.google.pt/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iscsp.ulisboa.pt%2F%7Ecepp%2Frevoltas%2Fditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htm&edit-text=&act=urlA successful opposition coup against Salazar during the Spanish Civil War would either see a neutral government or moderately pro-Spanish Republic (friendly to the anti-communist parts of the Spanish Republican government). I don't see them doing more than allowing volunteers to fight in Spain or providing a safe heaven for exiles. In any case, in the ww2, it would be pro-allied Neutral or clearly aligned with the allies. Maybe due to early changes, an Allied Portugal is in the war from the start while Spain is neutral but learns towards the Axis. Events spiral to a head with Portugal and Spain going to war. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,835
Likes: 13,224
|
Post by stevep on Mar 29, 2018 21:54:47 GMT
Well that does sound like a possibility. Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support. This is a list of revolts against the Estado Novo (and the military dictatorship that preceded it during a few years) www.iscsp.ulisboa.pt/~cepp/revoltas/ditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htmtranslate.google.pt/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iscsp.ulisboa.pt%2F%7Ecepp%2Frevoltas%2Fditadura_e_estado_novo._quadro_das_revoltas.htm&edit-text=&act=urlA successful opposition coup against Salazar during the Spanish Civil War would either see a neutral government or moderately pro-Spanish Republic (friendly to the anti-communist parts of the Spanish Republican government). I don't see them doing more than allowing volunteers to fight in Spain or providing a safe heaven for exiles. In any case, in the ww2, it would be pro-allied Neutral or clearly aligned with the allies. archangel Many thanks. Can't get the google translate working - probably just me being thick somewhere, so can't read the details but does look like a lot of unrest. Sounds like it shouldn't be impossible to get a regime change. Do agree however that unlikely Portugal would go hard left and hence at most a neutral/ moderate pro-republic Portugal during the SCW. Possibly with some fear that a fascist success there would prompt new attempts, possibly aided by Spanish fascists to overthrown the Portuguese regime. Shouldn't be too difficult, given a POD in the early/mid 30's to see someone other than Franco being the leaders of the Spanish fascists and siding with Germany or possibly making an independent attack on Portugal. Rather like Mussolini and Greece, with this dragging in Britain and Germany, in either order. Steve |
|
Don't know enough about Portugal at this time to say how likely such a coup was but it could trigger such a line of events. Possibly also the original coup is supported by some of the more extreme elements in the Spanish republic before the civil war starts, both making it more possible and establishing links between the two powers. Simple Portuguese support for the republic, providing it with a more secure supply line for imports and by its stance possibly making the Nationalists watch their border with Portugal during the conflict would cause the Spanish fascist to be hostile to their neighbour. It might not even need Spanish republicans launching terrorist/guerilla attacks from Portugal, which the latter would be foolish to support given the circumstances. Franco could see the existence of exiles in Portugal as a prompt for him to want to 'clear them out', which could seem practical after the fall of France. Also too left wing a Portuguese government could be unlikely, or at least less likely, for Britain to support.
