James G
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Post by James G on Feb 6, 2018 21:09:47 GMT
Let's say that China erupts in revolt - following an economic collapse - and there is the rise of a Western-friendly regime looking apparent.
Unlikely, maybe... but, hey, why not?
Does Russia intervene to support the government if the PLA won't? Or would Russia try to break off friendly regions?
A war in China would bleed Russia dry, but I'm talking unconventional warfare where anti-rebel forces and separatist groups would be supported by air attacks, little green men and diplomatic efforts.
Thoughts?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 7, 2018 0:39:12 GMT
Let's say that China erupts in revolt - following an economic collapse - and there is the rise of a Western-friendly regime looking apparent. Unlikely, maybe... but, hey, why not? Does Russia intervene to support the government if the PLA won't? Or would Russia try to break off friendly regions? A war in China would bleed Russia dry, but I'm talking unconventional warfare where anti-rebel forces and separatist groups would be supported by air attacks, little green men and diplomatic efforts. Thoughts? Could it happen during a much worse Culture Revolution. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 7, 2018 15:58:23 GMT
Let's say that China erupts in revolt - following an economic collapse - and there is the rise of a Western-friendly regime looking apparent. Unlikely, maybe... but, hey, why not? Does Russia intervene to support the government if the PLA won't? Or would Russia try to break off friendly regions? A war in China would bleed Russia dry, but I'm talking unconventional warfare where anti-rebel forces and separatist groups would be supported by air attacks, little green men and diplomatic efforts. Thoughts? Could it happen during a much worse Culture Revolution. It might well be the case when the Soviet Union is still in existence and after Mao's split with Moscow. There was a case in 1969 when, apart from border clashes between the two a Chinese general died in an air crash, allegedly fleeing after a failed attempt to overthrow Mao and set up a pro-Moscow regime. As such if it looked like a distinctly pro-western region seemed to be reuniting China after a period of chaos I could see the USSR seeking to intervene. Whether this was to seek to impose a friendly regime or simply to split off disputed/border areas and cause the new pro-western regime as much as disruption as possibly would depend on the circumstances. On the other hand, after the meetings with Nixon Mao was in many ways friendly to Washington than Moscow but, as far as we're aware the Soviets did nothing. If we're talking about the modern day an overt Russian intervention seems markedly less likely. Because the military and economic balance has switched strongly in China's favour so any Russian intervention would be very risky. Especially as it provides a strong motive for China to unite in opposition to such a move and also to see a pro-western government as more attractive if it helps keep out a military intervention from Russia. Also of course China has more advanced nuclear forces which makes any intervention markedly more dangerous. China was a nuclear power from the late 60's but had a relatively small and primitive force with at least a decent change most could be taken out without a counter strike on Russian territory. This is far less likely now. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 7, 2018 16:04:03 GMT
Could it happen during a much worse Culture Revolution. It might well be the case when the Soviet Union is still in existence and after Mao's split with Moscow. There was a case in 1969 when, apart from border clashes between the two a Chinese general died in an air crash, allegedly fleeing after a failed attempt to overthrow Mao and set up a pro-Moscow regime. As such if it looked like a distinctly pro-western region seemed to be reuniting China after a period of chaos I could see the USSR seeking to intervene. Whether this was to seek to impose a friendly regime or simply to split off disputed/border areas and cause the new pro-western regime as much as disruption as possibly would depend on the circumstances. On the other hand, after the meetings with Nixon Mao was in many ways friendly to Washington than Moscow but, as far as we're aware the Soviets did nothing. If we're talking about the modern day an overt Russian intervention seems markedly less likely. Because the military and economic balance has switched strongly in China's favour so any Russian intervention would be very risky. Especially as it provides a strong motive for China to unite in opposition to such a move and also to see a pro-western government as more attractive if it helps keep out a military intervention from Russia. Also of course China has more advanced nuclear forces which makes any intervention markedly more dangerous. China was a nuclear power from the late 60's but had a relatively small and primitive force with at least a decent change most could be taken out without a counter strike on Russian territory. This is far less likely now. So what about this, a much worse Culture Revolution, a failed coup by Chinese generals who want to stop it, some of them mange to flee to Moscow where they set up a pro-Soviet government in exile (of course recognized by the Soviet Union and all of the Warsaw Pact members) which result in the Sino-Soviet border conflict to escalate into a full war, later the Republic of China (Taiwan), who is backed of course by the United States also joins in the fun which results that the People Republic of China who is fighting the Soviet Union is forced to fight two war, the Sino-Soviet War and the 2nd Chinese Civil War. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 7, 2018 16:17:28 GMT
It might well be the case when the Soviet Union is still in existence and after Mao's split with Moscow. There was a case in 1969 when, apart from border clashes between the two a Chinese general died in an air crash, allegedly fleeing after a failed attempt to overthrow Mao and set up a pro-Moscow regime. As such if it looked like a distinctly pro-western region seemed to be reuniting China after a period of chaos I could see the USSR seeking to intervene. Whether this was to seek to impose a friendly regime or simply to split off disputed/border areas and cause the new pro-western regime as much as disruption as possibly would depend on the circumstances. On the other hand, after the meetings with Nixon Mao was in many ways friendly to Washington than Moscow but, as far as we're aware the Soviets did nothing. If we're talking about the modern day an overt Russian intervention seems markedly less likely. Because the military and economic balance has switched strongly in China's favour so any Russian intervention would be very risky. Especially as it provides a strong motive for China to unite in opposition to such a move and also to see a pro-western government as more attractive if it helps keep out a military intervention from Russia. Also of course China has more advanced nuclear forces which makes any intervention markedly more dangerous. China was a nuclear power from the late 60's but had a relatively small and primitive force with at least a decent change most could be taken out without a counter strike on Russian territory. This is far less likely now. So what about this, a much worse Culture Revolution, a failed coup by Chinese generals who want to stop it, some of them mange to flee to Moscow where they set up a pro-Soviet government in exile (of course recognized by the Soviet Union and all of the Warsaw Pact members) which result in the Sino-Soviet border conflict to escalate into a full war, later the Republic of China (Taiwan), who is backed of course by the United States also joins in the fun which results that the People Republic of China who is fighting the Soviet Union is forced to fight two war, the Sino-Soviet War and the 2nd Chinese Civil War. That could be very, very messy. Especially if the 'rump' PRC government could well be split into multiple factions. Although its likely that once overt foreign interference starts the pressure for such groups to unite increases significantly. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 7, 2018 16:21:02 GMT
So what about this, a much worse Culture Revolution, a failed coup by Chinese generals who want to stop it, some of them mange to flee to Moscow where they set up a pro-Soviet government in exile (of course recognized by the Soviet Union and all of the Warsaw Pact members) which result in the Sino-Soviet border conflict to escalate into a full war, later the Republic of China (Taiwan), who is backed of course by the United States also joins in the fun which results that the People Republic of China who is fighting the Soviet Union is forced to fight two war, the Sino-Soviet War and the 2nd Chinese Civil War. That could be very, very messy. Especially if the 'rump' PRC government could well be split into multiple factions. Although its likely that once overt foreign interference starts the pressure for such groups to unite increases significantly. Would the Soviet Union and the United States come to a secret agreement so that the conflict in China might be contained to China,also i would assume that the United kingdom also will join the party at one point due its involvement in Hong Kong. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 7, 2018 19:28:50 GMT
I hadn't considered current Chinese military strength enough. It was a speculative idea for the future: one not developed.
As to the 69 idea, there is probably more promise in that. China had only recently reunited and there was still memories of division to exploit.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 8, 2018 15:53:22 GMT
I hadn't considered current Chinese military strength enough. It was a speculative idea for the future: one not developed. As to the 69 idea, there is probably more promise in that. China had only recently reunited and there was still memories of division to exploit. Also until 1971 the seat of China in the UN is held by the Republic of China. But this being the future history thread, i think a 2nd North Korean War might effect China as well. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 8, 2018 19:35:20 GMT
It certainly would. Trade considerations for China would affect how it dealt with a Second Korean War though: I can't see any overt Chinese-American conflict in that. Of course, it would depend on how that went.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 8, 2018 19:46:25 GMT
It certainly would. Trade considerations for China would affect how it dealt with a Second Korean War though: I can't see any overt Chinese-American conflict in that. Of course, it would depend on how that went. Well China will get a large influx of North Koreans fleeing into their country, also it might effect their economy as well. |
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