Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

This is like.

[Part III]


Chapter Seven – Two Toughest Kids on the Block

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January 1984:

The new year in the United States brought with it economic uncertainty. The Wall Street Crash right before Christmas had effects then but more importantly ones which started to be felt domestically in January. The financial sector was hit with lay-offs and some collapses of big institutions which made headlines. Elsewhere though, the average American worker was yet to feel the knock-on effect. The media was full of doom and gloom from some with reports of a recession about to begin while elsewhere in the news there was assurances that this was all a temporary blip from where recovery would soon come. Statements from the White House and the Treasury said that there was no need for immediate concern for the country’s workers and retirees – the latter would seem to be in a BAD situation if the worst came – and that the markets would ‘re-correct’ themselves soon enough. Four years ago, January had been the month when the primary season started for the presidential race. However, in 1984, the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary were scheduled to take place back-to-back (eight days apart) in mid to late February. That gave the president breathing space for his re-election campaign. He had no serious opposition from within the Democratic Party though was aware that if there had been a serious challenger, that candidate could have taken advantage should the Iowa contest have taken place in January to sting him or even cause an upset. Kennedy and his advisers were certain that by February things would sort themselves out on the economic front and the low-level challengers which he had would pose no threat. The Republicans tried not to go too far over the events of December and be seen to celebrate when they declared how Kennedy had caused the crash on Wall Street: it was American workers who would be affected, those being voters. Still, they took it to the president and focused on his mishandling of the economy rather than scare-mongering about millions being potentially put out of work. The two main candidates in the race for the Republican nomination, Senator Dole and Congressman Kemp (the latter recently with Reagan’s endorsement), tore into the president and did it with a lot of success. Kennedy had sold himself on his management of the economy and December had been the proof of his failings. Meanwhile, throughout January, there came no signs at all of the markets regaining strength nor any hint of that re-correction talked about. Next month wasn’t going to bring any good news on that front either.

Across the Atlantic, January was when the first of the announced partial withdrawals of American troops from West Germany began. The Pentagon press releases kept on using the term ‘redeployments’ rather than withdrawals. Secretary of Defence Bentsen came to Western Europe in the middle of the month when they were underway and was present at a NATO mini-summit held up in Copenhagen before then going across to Britain. It was there, into the UK, where some of those forces being redeployed were going. The British Government was undertaking quite the herculean task in getting ready to take a portion of those withdrawing units into facilities across Britain where they would be based for what was meant to be a temporary period. If there had been room for more, then more would have been accepted. The staging facilities were partially-used military bases which had seen urgent repairs and upgrades made to them at rapid speed using British and US personnel to upgrade them. There would be complaints from American service-personnel about many of the sites and the condition which they were in even after repairs yet what had been done had been in a short space of time. The British Government had the view that it was better than seeing these forces sent across the Atlantic and the Pentagon had agreed too: there would have been accommodation issues back across in the United States for those moving to Britain, issues which would come atop of the already outstanding problem of finding space for others who were returning to the US mainland. Moving into Britain starting this month was the 3rd Brigade of the 2nd Armored Division, the Forward Brigade based in northern West Germany. They were going to sites spread across the Home Countries west of London and stretching out towards the Salisbury Plain. Next month, the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment was due to start arriving across the East Midlands – near to the already many US military bases across that part of the country –, while in March the 50th Tactical Fighter Wing with its F-16s were due to transfer to RAF Wethersfield, a standby base for the US Air Force in Essex. This was all a big deal in terms of logistics but one which had also become a political issue in Britain. Despite the complaints from some, those American units with nearly ten thousand soldiers and airmen were moving into Britain. It was all meant to be temporary but there were comments made from certain people that it may be permanent. They were going to be proved wrong yet not for any reason which they might have considered possible.

Egypt saw the assassination of its president take place in January. Anwar Sadat was killed by the terrorist organisation Islamic Jihad. They managed to manipulate a small group of radical army officers who had been opposed to Sadat on many issues but centrally since he opened his peace initiative with Israel last year at the behest of the Americans. A trio of those officers were given help to get at Sadat and shoot him dead; those backers within Islamic Jihad had made sure they fast disappeared when it instantly became that while Sadat was dead, the country didn’t fall into chaos allowing for them to step into the power vacuum and take control of Egypt. That was a disappointment for them but they were happy enough to have gotten to Sadat and also given their cause a major propaganda boost. While they were disappointed, their foreign backer was furious. The Sadat assassination had been supported from afar by Egypt’s neighbour Libya in the form of that country’s dictator Colonel Gadhafi. He’d wanted Sadat dead for the betrayal which he saw of the Arab people where Sadat had been working to achieve a long-lasting peace with Israel. Islamic Jihad had been able to kill Sadat but not replace him themselves like they said they would be able to. Rather than erupt in revolution, Egypt was quickly taken over by Sadat’s vice president: Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak was soon given intelligence linking the assassination to Libya. He pondered over what to do about it. A decision would come soon enough on that and conflict would return to the Middle East.

The replacement of Andropov with Ustinov saw changes made at the top of the Soviet Government. Among those was the effective job-swap between Chebrikov and Fedorchuk; Chebrikov was moved to the Interior Ministry and Fedorchuk to the head of the KGB. The former had been demoted and the latter promoted. Ustinov would have rather have gotten rid of Chebrikov fully though there were those who Chebrikov still had the support of in the Politburo who, while they had urged him to back out of the succession race which Ustinov had won, refused to see him cut adrift completely. Ustinov didn’t have the support to fully get rid of him, just shuffle him aside. The replacement as KGB Chairman with Fedorchuk was another one of Andropov’s many dying wishes: this was one which Ustinov managed to fulfil. Another one of those was to try to slow down the speed of events in Latin America where the fear was that an eventual clash would take place. Gromyko was sent to the region for an official series of engagements. The Soviet foreign minister went to Havana first and then to Managua. The Cubans and Nicaraguans were told that the intention of Moscow wasn’t to see conflict with the Americans, a conflict which the belief was would come over Mexico. The response in neither country wasn’t promising. Castro nor the Ortega brothers believed that the Mexico Revolution would bring eventual American intervention. Dissatisfied with their responses but still with a mission to fulfil, Gromyko went onwards to Mexico City where he met with Tirado López. Gromyko was not impressed with the leader of Mexico. The man was out of his depth in his understanding of international relations. He was especially dismissive of the idea that the Soviet Union should tell him what to do. In addition, he too joined with the views coming from Havana and Managua that the United States would huff and puff but eventually do nothing when it came to Mexico. He would reunite his country with force of arms, build a socialist state and not be stopped by anyone. Gromyko would leave Mexico the day before when the United States finally showed how serious it was when it came to not ignoring the actions of Tirado López.

Gromyko opinion of the motherland 'brotherly' allies will be at the moment akin to this: Buffon to my right and jokes to my left, if the americans react strongly not only the URSS will leave them all dry but it's more probable that will cut military and economic aid...just to remind everyone who's really in charge. Frankly i'm surprised that Lopez still breathe, ITTL the Soviet had killed for much less and the would be revolutionary had caused much harm to the Rodina (even if indirectely).

Calling the conflict between Egypt and Libya a war will be probably wrong...cumberstomp will be more appropriate; the Libyan armed forces are not capable to fight a real war against a nation like Egypt, too much disparity in term of quality and quantity, plus at the moment a lot of the good colonell military assets are occupied in Chad against the locals and the French force there.
Reaction at this war will be mixed; British and French will be happy as the Libyan had supported terrorist everywhere, the americans will be the same while the Soviet will try to support Gheddaffi both diplomatically and military (only supplies and maybe 'volunteers') as after all it's one of their nominal allies; Italy will be divided while nobody will shear a tear for the colonell (probably the contrary) and we had our series of trouble with him, Libya is still a very important economic patner, plus, as OTL demonstrated, we are not distant enough to avoid being involved in fight in the region (Craxi will try to get reassurance that this is just a punitive expedition or that even in case of regime change the italian interest will be safeguarded

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January 1984:

Late in the month there was recognition of the Monterrey Government as the legitimate government of Mexico coming from the United States. That Northern Alliance – Monterrey still hated such a name – administration was given the recognition which was removed from the one down in Mexico City. President Herzog Flores was very welcoming of such a move; Tirado López gave the public impression of not giving a damn. Monterrey was willing to accept that Mexico had debts it was going to have to pay back (one day, certainly not now) and also would accept Mexico’s other international obligations too. Herzog Flores led a government which was democratic. He led a government which wasn’t opposed to the United States either. Monterrey had done everything to get American recognition and it finally paid off. Hard choices had to be made within Monterrey and there had been a lot of internal dispute, but it was all seen as worth it. With the Americans standing behind them, the communist down in Mexico City was doomed. All of the problems in Mexico were meant to be solved now that Washington was on-side.

That political decision with diplomatic recognition changed nothing when it came to bringing the fighting to an end and also stopping the flow of refugees heading to & over the US-Mexico border. The civil war still raged and Mexican civilians still fled their nation for safety up in the United States. The numbers of them in December were immense and into January they were even greater. Monterrey was meant to work with the United States to bring this flow to an end, a key element of the switch in recognition. That was going to be quite the challenge. Over in the Border States, from San Diego on the Pacific to Brownsville on the Gulf of Mexico, on the northern side of along that long frontier, there were Mexican refugees which had illegally entered the country. There was no official count of these people. California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas had been entered by refugees when the US Border Patrol had been overwhelmed with sheer numbers. There were many more heading towards them too. Federal assistance for the Border States hadn’t come despite protestations that it was needed with FEMA asked to be brought in to open refugee camps. The White House said that the news of refugee camps offering support to refugees would only bring the arrival of more. Instead, the Border Patrol was tasked to do more to stop the flow and the Monterrey Government was meant to work to end the numbers on their end. California and Texas were where most refugees went to. Their governors, state legislatures and senators & representatives in Washington were furious with such a lack of federal response. Efforts were underway to provide state aid when Washington was doing nothing though there was plenty of political pressure being applied to reverse that decision on FEMA. Charity groups and other volunteers were flocking to the border too. There were refugee camps opening despite what Washington said on the matter. The Border States were each considering calling out the national guard as well: security was becoming an issue alongside the humanitarian need. This wasn’t something that could be ignored and neither something that the Monterrey Government could do anything about despite it getting that diplomatic recognition. Only the US federal government could resolve the matter.

South of the border, there came the first of the civil war’s large battles. The opposing sides were each still hampered in forming an army but the best of what they had was sent into a major fight in the state of San Luis Potosi. North of the city sharing the same name, communist and Northern Alliance military forces clashed. Control over the main highway heading up towards Monterrey was the focus. The Monterrey Government had sent its forces on the attack, heading southwards, and they went up against defending forces answerable to Tirado López. Each side was able to make use of armoured vehicles, artillery and air power in this fight which made it the big engagement which it became. The Battle of San Luis Potosi would see the use of major force when supporting arms were brought into play. No more would the civil war see only confused skirmishes taking place all over the place. The result of the battle was a victory for the forces of the Northern Alliance. A considerable advance was made and communist forces overcome before being forced to flee. A follow-up to take advantage of the initial victory, to go further south, was unable to take place though. It could have been a major rout yet the communists were able to make a staged withdrawal back down to the city behind them with only air interference against their retreat. The Northern Alliance military commanders witnessed once again there being problems within the ranks of discipline and motivation. The fighting men were still proving difficult when it came to getting them to fight, especially for any sustained period. Desertion was still going on with men forcibly conscripted taking the first chance they got to leave the ranks. Herzog Flores refused to allow for any serious mass punishments to take place saying that to do so would see a hostile United States reaction. True that might have been, but all that it did was to allow for discipline to crumble and desertions to increase. There was nothing behind the threats of punishment that the fighting men could see because of that political decision. No change was going to come on this and the later results would show how foolish of a decision that this was.

Cuba and its puppets - Grenada, Guatemala and Nicaragua - will but the Soviets do not want to. Like the US, the Soviets want the whole Mexican headache to go away. If they could work together, they could solve this issue once and for all.

That is the key issue and the one which will doom them. They have no cause to fight for.
The communists will whip up their fighters - and make examples of some of those who won't fight - and that will be the key difference.