stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 6, 2018 14:57:48 GMT
Interesting high-lighting of the functioning of the Soviet upper reaches. As James says its often seen as a centralised bureaucracy but even those at the highest ranks depend on those under them to give them accurate information. Going to be interested to see if Andropov can block Chebrikov's bid for power. In his current state if a dying Andropov tries to denounce him some might see Chebrikov as a powerful figure it would be dangerous to oppose and safer to hitch their waggon to what might look like the winner. Also if he has to pick a new, older candidate at very short notice how much time will he have to help them come to power?
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 15:16:07 GMT
Good updates... This is all bad. Very, very bad (BTW, have you heard about the Chappaquiddick movie IOTL)... Waiting for more... Thank you. Things will only get worse! I haven't; I'll look into it. More today! |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 15:17:52 GMT
Interesting high-lighting of the functioning of the Soviet upper reaches. As James says its often seen as a centralised bureaucracy but even those at the highest ranks depend on those under them to give them accurate information. Going to be interested to see if Andropov can block Chebrikov's bid for power. In his current state if a dying Andropov tries to denounce him some might see Chebrikov as a powerful figure it would be dangerous to oppose and safer to hitch their waggon to what might look like the winner. Also if he has to pick a new, older candidate at very short notice how much time will he have to help them come to power? Their relationships and alliances at the top were all rather complicated. Reading up on how it all worked, information like this always came out as part of power-plays. Andropov has very, very little time left. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 15:18:03 GMT
(101)
December 1983:
The second wave of refugees coming from Mexico started to arrive at the US border. There were more of them than the first time, far more. No longer were they middle-class Mexicans but those with less means to support themselves or none at all. The Americans weren’t expecting them. There seemed no reason for them to flee. Flee they did though. They left Mexico and headed for what was seen as safety in the United States. From California through to Arizona across to New Mexico and down to Texas, tens of thousands turned up at ports of entry along the border through early December. Families and single people came in vehicles or on foot. They all wanted to enter the United States. Why? Because Mexico was having its civil war and they wanted no part of it. That civil war erupted with the first armed clashes between the two sides through the early part of the month which intensified fast. Mexico City and Monterrey both had governments claiming to be the sole legitimate one for Mexico: up in the United States, they were respectively called the Communists and the Northern Alliance. Both had spent last month trying to build together armed forces to assert that legitimacy which they claimed and defend themselves from the other. With varying degrees of success, they each had put together the basics though when elements of those clashed, the improvising which had been done showed. The scale of the destruction with the Mexican Army had previously done to themselves with the desertions and munities wasn’t something that could be overcome in a month. Moreover, as was the case especially with Communists which Tirado López led, but also with the Northern Alliance too, there was little real commitment from men forced back into uniform and pushed onwards to fight ‘the enemy’. Mexico’s communist fighters weren’t communists; those fighting for the politicians in Monterrey didn’t have a real cause either. The latter was now being led by the former cabinet financial secretary Jesús Silva Herzog Flores after he’d won a power struggle out over Miguel de la Madrid. Herzog Flores didn’t like the name ‘Northern Alliance’ nor the idea that the Monterrey Government which represented northern and western states of Mexico was anything but the real Mexican government. His regime was still trying to define itself: it wasn’t communist, that was the only certainty.
The armed clashes which drove the refugees towards the United States were small in scale but took place from Sonora across to Chihuahua & Coahuila down to Nuevo León & Tamaulipas plus into Veracruz. There were no frontlines and no big armies on the march. Each side either attacked or defended from the other. Transport routes were the focus in some instances where elsewhere it was big towns and cities. These were the opening moves where the opposing sides were feeling each other out. There had been confidence expressed from on high that the other wouldn’t fight and would roll over once determination was shown. That believe was shown to be right but, conversely, wrong too. What happened was nothing more than a mess. There was death and destruction all over the place for no gain. It wasn’t just soldiers and militias in the service of the two sides who were killed and injured either. Civilians were caught up in this with them suffering. This was the cause of the flight of refugees. Few, very few, had seen any of the fighting. They ran from it instead, long before it came to them. Safety was that way, up in the United States. The Communists and the Northern Alliance were starting to forcibly draft men to fight as well, further driving the flight of civilians to avoid that for themselves. These were people that had witnessed their country collapse in the last several months and where it was now fully at war with itself. There was mass unemployment, no food, violent crime was springing up all over the place and there were closures of schools & hospitals as Mexico came apart. They had to go north, there was no other choice for themselves that so many could see.
Rejection from Mexico City of the hand of friendship was a hard pill to swallow for Washington. The first brush-off hadn’t been taken seriously, Tirado López had to say it many times for the message to get through. Revolutionary Mexico wanted nothing from the United States and the gringos could get lost with their demands that Mexico honour its debts to American banks. He refused to meet with the ambassador when efforts were made from the latter to do so. Finally, Tirado López sent him an angry letter hand-delivered to the embassy. Its contents were rather undiplomatic. The money lent to the former Mexico wasn’t something that the new Mexico recognised. It had been lent in bad faith too, in a manner to leave the Mexican people dependent upon the United States so as to destroy the ‘national soul’ of Mexico. Furthermore, on other matters, Mexico no longer recognised oil contacts signed with the United States either and would be looking elsewhere to sell the ‘property of the Mexican people’ rather than to American companies who claimed future ownership.
A copy of the latter was then released to the media in Mexico City for domestic and foreign consumption. On Wall Street the banks took notice. So did those aboard elsewhere in Western Europe and the Far East where there were more banks which held Mexican debt. This was something which within weeks was to come to a head.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 6, 2018 15:30:38 GMT
(101)December 1983: The second wave of refugees coming from Mexico started to arrive at the US border. There were more of them than the first time, far more. No longer were they middle-class Mexicans but those with less means to support themselves or none at all. The Americans weren’t expecting them. There seemed no reason for them to flee. Flee they did though. They left Mexico and headed for what was seen as safety in the United States. From California through to Arizona across to New Mexico and down to Texas, tens of thousands turned up at ports of entry along the border through early December. Families and single people came in vehicles or on foot. They all wanted to enter the United States. Why? Because Mexico was having its civil war and they wanted no part of it. That civil war erupted with the first armed clashes between the two sides through the early part of the month which intensified fast. Mexico City and Monterrey both had governments claiming to be the sole legitimate one for Mexico: up in the United States, they were respectively called the Communists and the Northern Alliance. Both had spent last month trying to build together armed forces to assert that legitimacy which they claimed and defend themselves from the other. With varying degrees of success, they each had put together the basics though when elements of those clashed, the improvising which had been done showed. The scale of the destruction with the Mexican Army had previously done to themselves with the desertions and munities wasn’t something that could be overcome in a month. Moreover, as was the case especially with Communists which Tirado López led, but also with the Northern Alliance too, there was little real commitment from men forced back into uniform and pushed onwards to fight ‘the enemy’. Mexico’s communist fighters weren’t communists; those fighting for the politicians in Monterrey didn’t have a real cause either. The latter was now being led by the former cabinet financial secretary Jesús Silva Herzog Flores after he’d won a power struggle out over Miguel de la Madrid. Herzog Flores didn’t like the name ‘Northern Alliance’ nor the idea that the Monterrey Government which represented northern and western states of Mexico was anything but the real Mexican government. His regime was still trying to define itself: it wasn’t communist, that was the only certainty. The armed clashes which drove the refugees towards the United States were small in scale but took place from Sonora across to Chihuahua & Coahuila down to Nuevo León & Tamaulipas plus into Veracruz. There were no frontlines and no big armies on the march. Each side either attacked or defended from the other. Transport routes were the focus in some instances where elsewhere it was big towns and cities. These were the opening moves where the opposing sides were feeling each other out. There had been confidence expressed from on high that the other wouldn’t fight and would roll over once determination was shown. That believe was shown to be right but, conversely, wrong too. What happened was nothing more than a mess. There was death and destruction all over the place for no gain. It wasn’t just soldiers and militias in the service of the two sides who were killed and injured either. Civilians were caught up in this with them suffering. This was the cause of the flight of refugees. Few, very few, had seen any of the fighting. They ran from it instead, long before it came to them. Safety was that way, up in the United States. The Communists and the Northern Alliance were starting to forcibly draft men to fight as well, further driving the flight of civilians to avoid that for themselves. These were people that had witnessed their country collapse in the last several months and where it was now fully at war with itself. There was mass unemployment, no food, violent crime was springing up all over the place and there were closures of schools & hospitals as Mexico came apart. They had to go north, there was no other choice for themselves that so many could see. Rejection from Mexico City of the hand of friendship was a hard pill to swallow for Washington. The first brush-off hadn’t been taken seriously, Tirado López had to say it many times for the message to get through. Revolutionary Mexico wanted nothing from the United States and the gringos could get lost with their demands that Mexico honour its debts to American banks. He refused to meet with the ambassador when efforts were made from the latter to do so. Finally, Tirado López sent him an angry letter hand-delivered to the embassy. Its contents were rather undiplomatic. The money lent to the former Mexico wasn’t something that the new Mexico recognised. It had been lent in bad faith too, in a manner to leave the Mexican people dependent upon the United States so as to destroy the ‘national soul’ of Mexico. Furthermore, on other matters, Mexico no longer recognised oil contacts signed with the United States either and would be looking elsewhere to sell the ‘property of the Mexican people’ rather than to American companies who claimed future ownership. A copy of the latter was then released to the media in Mexico City for domestic and foreign consumption. On Wall Street the banks took notice. So did those aboard elsewhere in Western Europe and the Far East where there were more banks which held Mexican debt. This was something which within weeks was to come to a head. Seems that New Mexico is doing the same thing Cuba under Castro did, do not know if the United States will be happy, but then again, the United States is run by a Kennedy. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 15:37:37 GMT
(101)December 1983: The second wave of refugees coming from Mexico started to arrive at the US border. There were more of them than the first time, far more. No longer were they middle-class Mexicans but those with less means to support themselves or none at all. The Americans weren’t expecting them. There seemed no reason for them to flee. Flee they did though. They left Mexico and headed for what was seen as safety in the United States. From California through to Arizona across to New Mexico and down to Texas, tens of thousands turned up at ports of entry along the border through early December. Families and single people came in vehicles or on foot. They all wanted to enter the United States. Why? Because Mexico was having its civil war and they wanted no part of it. That civil war erupted with the first armed clashes between the two sides through the early part of the month which intensified fast. Mexico City and Monterrey both had governments claiming to be the sole legitimate one for Mexico: up in the United States, they were respectively called the Communists and the Northern Alliance. Both had spent last month trying to build together armed forces to assert that legitimacy which they claimed and defend themselves from the other. With varying degrees of success, they each had put together the basics though when elements of those clashed, the improvising which had been done showed. The scale of the destruction with the Mexican Army had previously done to themselves with the desertions and munities wasn’t something that could be overcome in a month. Moreover, as was the case especially with Communists which Tirado López led, but also with the Northern Alliance too, there was little real commitment from men forced back into uniform and pushed onwards to fight ‘the enemy’. Mexico’s communist fighters weren’t communists; those fighting for the politicians in Monterrey didn’t have a real cause either. The latter was now being led by the former cabinet financial secretary Jesús Silva Herzog Flores after he’d won a power struggle out over Miguel de la Madrid. Herzog Flores didn’t like the name ‘Northern Alliance’ nor the idea that the Monterrey Government which represented northern and western states of Mexico was anything but the real Mexican government. His regime was still trying to define itself: it wasn’t communist, that was the only certainty. The armed clashes which drove the refugees towards the United States were small in scale but took place from Sonora across to Chihuahua & Coahuila down to Nuevo León & Tamaulipas plus into Veracruz. There were no frontlines and no big armies on the march. Each side either attacked or defended from the other. Transport routes were the focus in some instances where elsewhere it was big towns and cities. These were the opening moves where the opposing sides were feeling each other out. There had been confidence expressed from on high that the other wouldn’t fight and would roll over once determination was shown. That believe was shown to be right but, conversely, wrong too. What happened was nothing more than a mess. There was death and destruction all over the place for no gain. It wasn’t just soldiers and militias in the service of the two sides who were killed and injured either. Civilians were caught up in this with them suffering. This was the cause of the flight of refugees. Few, very few, had seen any of the fighting. They ran from it instead, long before it came to them. Safety was that way, up in the United States. The Communists and the Northern Alliance were starting to forcibly draft men to fight as well, further driving the flight of civilians to avoid that for themselves. These were people that had witnessed their country collapse in the last several months and where it was now fully at war with itself. There was mass unemployment, no food, violent crime was springing up all over the place and there were closures of schools & hospitals as Mexico came apart. They had to go north, there was no other choice for themselves that so many could see. Rejection from Mexico City of the hand of friendship was a hard pill to swallow for Washington. The first brush-off hadn’t been taken seriously, Tirado López had to say it many times for the message to get through. Revolutionary Mexico wanted nothing from the United States and the gringos could get lost with their demands that Mexico honour its debts to American banks. He refused to meet with the ambassador when efforts were made from the latter to do so. Finally, Tirado López sent him an angry letter hand-delivered to the embassy. Its contents were rather undiplomatic. The money lent to the former Mexico wasn’t something that the new Mexico recognised. It had been lent in bad faith too, in a manner to leave the Mexican people dependent upon the United States so as to destroy the ‘national soul’ of Mexico. Furthermore, on other matters, Mexico no longer recognised oil contacts signed with the United States either and would be looking elsewhere to sell the ‘property of the Mexican people’ rather than to American companies who claimed future ownership. A copy of the latter was then released to the media in Mexico City for domestic and foreign consumption. On Wall Street the banks took notice. So did those aboard elsewhere in Western Europe and the Far East where there were more banks which held Mexican debt. This was something which within weeks was to come to a head. Seems that New Mexico is doing the same thing Cuba under Castro did, do not know if the United States will be happy, but then again, the United States is run by a Kennedy. The US actions with the hand of friendship are based too on another RL event in a similar time frame. Under Carter, when Nicaraguan went communist, the first thing the US did was to offer immediate generous aid. It was the done thing even when violence was used to take power from a previously pro-US regime. Like his brother with Cuba, Ted will fast learn his mistake with Mexico. Two big things are about to happen first in the last weeks of the year before that though. |
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lordbyron
Warrant Officer
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Post by lordbyron on Apr 6, 2018 17:24:13 GMT
Oh, this is getting worse with each update.
Congrats for reaching 100K words; may there be many more to come...
Waiting for more, of course...
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 17:58:38 GMT
Oh, this is getting worse with each update. Congrats for reaching 100K words; may there be many more to come... Waiting for more, of course... Much more to come. An update below then back on Sunday. |
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 17:59:46 GMT
(102)December 1983: Two significant international events occurred in the last week of December 1983 which would push the world to war the following September. Without either, the Third World War couldn’t, wouldn’t take place. Even alone, neither would. The two of them, when combined together and playing into so much before and afterwards, would cause that conflict. Only later would they be looked back upon with the significance realized. At the time, the future wasn’t something that could be seen. The first was the Wall Street Crash of ’83. Just before Christmas, the stock market took a sudden and sharp slump. Billions were wiped off the value of shares in American companies. The follow-up would be no temporary blip as many would say in response: starting in the new year, the United States and then the West would enter a recession following the Crash of ’83. The economic effects would fast spread from Wall Street outwards across the world through nations far afield. It would feel like everyone was affected and that was generally the case too. Countries, companies, workers and pensioners around the world would feel the effects of the financial crash. It occurred on a Thursday morning in New York, though actually began late the previous day in the Far East on the Hong Kong and Tokyo markets. There were Asian banks which were holding a lot of American commercial debt, debt that was owed to them by Mexico and other Latin American nations. It wasn’t going to be paid. Mexico was steadfastly refusing to honour its debts and there was real concern that other countries across the region who said they would honour theirs just weren’t going to be able to either. They had all borrowed heavily to finance infrastructure while not using the money wisely. The realization came that that money was gone. The value of the holdings by Asian banks were corrected in Hong Kong and Tokyo. The next morning, with that in mind, there was an avalanche effect on Wall Street. American traders reacted to what had happened in Asia yet more so they were already gravely concerned over the state of the domestic US economy. The rate of personal savings was too low and personal debt too high. Access to credit was being restricted and inflation was climbing at an alarming rate. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve had both been trying to dampen the latest figures but there had come a news story the day before where it was alleged that both were doing so due to political pressure from the Kennedy Administration: his re-election campaign next year was to be run on how he had ‘fixed’ the economy. The correction from Asia was met with a correction on Wall Street. Things soon afterwards got out of hand. Other country’s debts were looked at too that morning, those being across Greece and Eastern Europe, so many more countries were there was real or perceived political instability that could cause complete economic collapse within. No one on Wall Street wanted to be the last one holding the debt at home nor abroad. Sell, sell, sell. Keep selling they just did. The New York Stock Exchange was closed early that day. The intention was to give the traders the afternoon off so they could reconsider their actions. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve made announcements about injecting money into the economy while working behind the scenes with key figures. By then though, Western European markets were opening and having crashes of their own. They had long been granting major loans across Eastern Europe – plus Greece, now sent over the edge into complete financial collapse – that all were looking lost. Panic hit Western Europe as well and they had their own market corrections. Too much damage was being done. It was irreversible, in the short-term at least, and would bring about that recession come January. Andropov died. The general secretary passed away and the country would need a new leader. Fast appointed by his colleagues in what wasn’t a unanimous vote (the way things were usually done) and instead a contentious decision to head-up the Funeral Committee for Andropov, was Marshal Ustinov. Chebrikov had been stopped from succeeding Andropov with the latter going to his grave with that knowledge and believing that he had achieved his goal of avoiding a future war. The alliances and secret agreements in the Politburo had seen upheaval at the last minute where Chebrikov was unable to gain enough support. Once Ustinov had that position to oversee the burial of Andropov, he was guaranteed to succeed his dead comrade as general secretary. That was the way things were done. Ustinov had the votes to assure his reaching of that position and, after the unexpected drama with the funeral decision, other colleagues who had favoured Chebrikov over him would rather see less drama occur when it came to that second decision and vote for Ustinov while urging Chebrikov to take a step back. Unity was what was favoured, not division. The unity would be for a man very different from Andropov. Marshal Dmitri Fyodorovich Ustinov was a military officer who had never served in the military. He wore the uniform and the (many) medals to show service in the armed forces though those had been during World War Two where he had been a military commissar rather than a soldier. He was a technocrat with a long background in the defence industry. Andropov had been an ally, a friend even, and Ustinov had been prepared to follow Andropov’s earlier wishes of supporting a younger candidate for general secretary. When Andropov decided that that wasn’t to be done due to the threat from Chebrikov, he put himself forward. His leadership of the Soviet Union, which would commence in the New Year, was meant to focus upon domestic affairs at home and continuing to ensure security for the state from threats based abroad. Ustinov would continue the military build-up at home but attempt to scale back the course of events in Latin America where Soviet and American interests were colliding. There would be other priorities for his government too such a making sure that issue with the Ukrainian breadbasket was fixed and that Eastern Europe was kept from rebellion. Those were all big challenges. Only the spending on more tanks, more aircraft, more missiles, more warships and so on would succeed. Instead, despite not wanting to, he would be at the helm of the ship of state when there would be complete reversal of all that Andropov had done in improving direct superpower-to-superpower relations with the Americans. Ustinov would lead his country to war with Andropov turning over in his grave at such a mistake. End of Part II
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 6, 2018 18:32:10 GMT
(102)December 1983: Two significant international events occurred in the last week of December 1983 which would push the world to war the following September. Without either, the Third World War couldn’t, wouldn’t take place. Even alone, neither would. The two of them, when combined together and playing into so much before and afterwards, would cause that conflict. Only later would they be looked back upon with the significance realized. At the time, the future wasn’t something that could be seen. The first was the Wall Street Crash of ’83. Just before Christmas, the stock market took a sudden and sharp slump. Billions were wiped off the value of shares in American companies. The follow-up would be no temporary blip as many would say in response: starting in the new year, the United States and then the West would enter a recession following the Crash of ’83. The economic effects would fast spread from Wall Street outwards across the world through nations far afield. It would feel like everyone was affected and that was generally the case too. Countries, companies, workers and pensioners around the world would feel the effects of the financial crash. It occurred on a Thursday morning in New York, though actually began late the previous day in the Far East on the Hong Kong and Tokyo markets. There were Asian banks which were holding a lot of American commercial debt, debt that was owed to them by Mexico and other Latin American nations. It wasn’t going to be paid. Mexico was steadfastly refusing to honour its debts and there was real concern that other countries across the region who said they would honour theirs just weren’t going to be able to either. They had all borrowed heavily to finance infrastructure while not using the money wisely. The realization came that that money was gone. The value of the holdings by Asian banks were corrected in Hong Kong and Tokyo. The next morning, with that in mind, there was an avalanche effect on Wall Street. American traders reacted to what had happened in Asia yet more so they were already gravely concerned over the state of the domestic US economy. The rate of personal savings was too low and personal debt too high. Access to credit was being restricted and inflation was climbing at an alarming rate. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve had both been trying to dampen the latest figures but there had come a news story the day before where it was alleged that both were doing so due to political pressure from the Kennedy Administration: his re-election campaign next year was to be run on how he had ‘fixed’ the economy. The correction from Asia was met with a correction on Wall Street. Things soon afterwards got out of hand. Other country’s debts were looked at too that morning, those being across Greece and Eastern Europe, so many more countries were there was real or perceived political instability that could cause complete economic collapse within. No one on Wall Street wanted to be the last one holding the debt at home nor abroad. Sell, sell, sell. Keep selling they just did. The New York Stock Exchange was closed early that day. The intention was to give the traders the afternoon off so they could reconsider their actions. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve made announcements about injecting money into the economy while working behind the scenes with key figures. By then though, Western European markets were opening and having crashes of their own. They had long been granting major loans across Eastern Europe – plus Greece, now sent over the edge into complete financial collapse – that all were looking lost. Panic hit Western Europe as well and they had their own market corrections. Too much damage was being done. It was irreversible, in the short-term at least, and would bring about that recession come January. Andropov died. The general secretary passed away and the country would need a new leader. Fast appointed by his colleagues in what wasn’t a unanimous vote (the way things were usually done) and instead a contentious decision to head-up the Funeral Committee for Andropov, was Marshal Ustinov. Chebrikov had been stopped from succeeding Andropov with the latter going to his grave with that knowledge and believing that he had achieved his goal of avoiding a future war. The alliances and secret agreements in the Politburo had seen upheaval at the last minute where Chebrikov was unable to gain enough support. Once Ustinov had that position to oversee the burial of Andropov, he was guaranteed to succeed his dead comrade as general secretary. That was the way things were done. Ustinov had the votes to assure his reaching of that position and, after the unexpected drama with the funeral decision, other colleagues who had favoured Chebrikov over him would rather see less drama occur when it came to that second decision and vote for Ustinov while urging Chebrikov to take a step back. Unity was what was favoured, not division. The unity would be for a man very different from Andropov. Marshal Dmitri Fyodorovich Ustinov was a military officer who had never served in the military. He wore the uniform and the (many) medals to show service in the armed forces though those had been during World War Two where he had been a military commissar rather than a soldier. He was a technocrat with a long background in the defence industry. Andropov had been an ally, a friend even, and Ustinov had been prepared to follow Andropov’s earlier wishes of supporting a younger candidate for general secretary. When Andropov decided that that wasn’t to be done due to the threat from Chebrikov, he put himself forward. His leadership of the Soviet Union, which would commence in the New Year, was meant to focus upon domestic affairs at home and continuing to ensure security for the state from threats based abroad. Ustinov would continue the military build-up at home but attempt to scale back the course of events in Latin America where Soviet and American interests were colliding. There would be other priorities for his government too such a making sure that issue with the Ukrainian breadbasket was fixed and that Eastern Europe was kept from rebellion. Those were all big challenges. Only the spending on more tanks, more aircraft, more missiles, more warships and so on would succeed. Instead, despite not wanting to, he would be at the helm of the ship of state when there would be complete reversal of all that Andropov had done in improving direct superpower-to-superpower relations with the Americans. Ustinov would lead his country to war with Andropov turning over in his grave at such a mistake. End of Part II Wall Street Crash of ’83, and somebody at the helm in the Soviet Union who is aiming for a war with more deaths then World War I and II combined, not looking good. |
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jasonsnow
Sub-lieutenant
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Post by jasonsnow on Apr 6, 2018 18:37:22 GMT
[Part I]
Chapter One – Beginnings
(1)
October 1976: During the second presidential debate, President Gerry Ford almost puts his foot in his mouth but stops himself from saying something that might come back to haunt him later. He recalls a pre-debate brief with his chief-of-staff, the young Dick Cheney, about Soviet Domination over Eastern Europe. There naturally was, and Ford confirms that there is during the debate. He adds that he wishes to see that end one day so that the Poles, the Czechoslovaks and others too no longer feel dominated by the Soviet Union.
November 1976: Ford wins the presidential election. He takes Ohio and Wisconsin by tiny margins after his campaign has continued to improve since a bad start. Jimmy Carter actually wins the popular vote, but Ford wins the only game in town: the Electoral college vote. There is surprise yet everyone agrees that Ford has won fair-and-square.
January 1977: Ford is sworn in for his second term. He is term-limited in 1980 but before then aims to do much domestically and abroad. The president keeps his pre-election cabinet and most senior appointments too. Dole is his VP, Kissinger at State, Rumsfeld at Defence, Simon at Treasury and Bush at the CIA. Critics claim more of the same though Ford declares that there will be positive change with his administration.
June 1977: Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev has a fatal slip-and-fall on the steps in his apartment building in Central Moscow. He cracks his head and bleeds out before anything can be done. The jokes inside his country will say that the weight of his self-awarded medals helped bring the heavy man down.
July 1977: A peaceful struggle for succession to replace Brezhnev sees the KGB Chairman get the nod: Yuri Andropov. His colleagues in the Soviet leadership restrain his powers as the new general secretary though those restrictions are something at once seen as challenges to be overcome by Andropov. He has no intention of being an equal with those on the Politburo. One immediate (non-fatal) casualty of Brezhnev’s demise is his hanger-on Chernenko: he is shown the door.
November 1977: Talks between Panama and the United States over a renegotiation of the status of the Panama Canal come to an abrupt halt when General Torrijos – Panama’s ‘Maximum Leader’ – walks out in a huff. Kissinger denies claims afterwards that Panama was offered nothing as Torrijos says was the case. The US Senate is pleased; Ford is too for his own party especially, but the whole senate as well, doesn’t want to see the transfer of the Panama Canal to Panama led by a military strongman.
I smell the sweet scent of Cold War-era, Tom Clancy-like, realistic historical fiction right there. And I love that smell. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2018 18:51:12 GMT
The money lent to the former Mexico wasn’t something that the new Mexico recognised. It had been lent in bad faith too, in a manner to leave the Mexican people dependent upon the United States so as to destroy the ‘national soul’ of Mexico. Furthermore, on other matters, Mexico no longer recognised oil contacts signed with the United States either and would be looking elsewhere to sell the ‘property of the Mexican people’ rather than to American companies who claimed future ownership. In other words, "odious debt." Mexico was in fact the first country to invoke the doctrine, in the 1860s. Complicating things, the United States acknowledged the legitimacy of the concept along the way (historically--not in this case!), which I'm sure Tirado López will have noticed. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odious_debt |
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Post by lukedalton on Apr 6, 2018 19:21:31 GMT
(102)December 1983: Two significant international events occurred in the last week of December 1983 which would push the world to war the following September. Without either, the Third World War couldn’t, wouldn’t take place. Even alone, neither would. The two of them, when combined together and playing into so much before and afterwards, would cause that conflict. Only later would they be looked back upon with the significance realized. At the time, the future wasn’t something that could be seen. The first was the Wall Street Crash of ’83. Just before Christmas, the stock market took a sudden and sharp slump. Billions were wiped off the value of shares in American companies. The follow-up would be no temporary blip as many would say in response: starting in the new year, the United States and then the West would enter a recession following the Crash of ’83. The economic effects would fast spread from Wall Street outwards across the world through nations far afield. It would feel like everyone was affected and that was generally the case too. Countries, companies, workers and pensioners around the world would feel the effects of the financial crash. It occurred on a Thursday morning in New York, though actually began late the previous day in the Far East on the Hong Kong and Tokyo markets. There were Asian banks which were holding a lot of American commercial debt, debt that was owed to them by Mexico and other Latin American nations. It wasn’t going to be paid. Mexico was steadfastly refusing to honour its debts and there was real concern that other countries across the region who said they would honour theirs just weren’t going to be able to either. They had all borrowed heavily to finance infrastructure while not using the money wisely. The realization came that that money was gone. The value of the holdings by Asian banks were corrected in Hong Kong and Tokyo. The next morning, with that in mind, there was an avalanche effect on Wall Street. American traders reacted to what had happened in Asia yet more so they were already gravely concerned over the state of the domestic US economy. The rate of personal savings was too low and personal debt too high. Access to credit was being restricted and inflation was climbing at an alarming rate. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve had both been trying to dampen the latest figures but there had come a news story the day before where it was alleged that both were doing so due to political pressure from the Kennedy Administration: his re-election campaign next year was to be run on how he had ‘fixed’ the economy. The correction from Asia was met with a correction on Wall Street. Things soon afterwards got out of hand. Other country’s debts were looked at too that morning, those being across Greece and Eastern Europe, so many more countries were there was real or perceived political instability that could cause complete economic collapse within. No one on Wall Street wanted to be the last one holding the debt at home nor abroad. Sell, sell, sell. Keep selling they just did. The New York Stock Exchange was closed early that day. The intention was to give the traders the afternoon off so they could reconsider their actions. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve made announcements about injecting money into the economy while working behind the scenes with key figures. By then though, Western European markets were opening and having crashes of their own. They had long been granting major loans across Eastern Europe – plus Greece, now sent over the edge into complete financial collapse – that all were looking lost. Panic hit Western Europe as well and they had their own market corrections. Too much damage was being done. It was irreversible, in the short-term at least, and would bring about that recession come January. Andropov died. The general secretary passed away and the country would need a new leader. Fast appointed by his colleagues in what wasn’t a unanimous vote (the way things were usually done) and instead a contentious decision to head-up the Funeral Committee for Andropov, was Marshal Ustinov. Chebrikov had been stopped from succeeding Andropov with the latter going to his grave with that knowledge and believing that he had achieved his goal of avoiding a future war. The alliances and secret agreements in the Politburo had seen upheaval at the last minute where Chebrikov was unable to gain enough support. Once Ustinov had that position to oversee the burial of Andropov, he was guaranteed to succeed his dead comrade as general secretary. That was the way things were done. Ustinov had the votes to assure his reaching of that position and, after the unexpected drama with the funeral decision, other colleagues who had favoured Chebrikov over him would rather see less drama occur when it came to that second decision and vote for Ustinov while urging Chebrikov to take a step back. Unity was what was favoured, not division. The unity would be for a man very different from Andropov. Marshal Dmitri Fyodorovich Ustinov was a military officer who had never served in the military. He wore the uniform and the (many) medals to show service in the armed forces though those had been during World War Two where he had been a military commissar rather than a soldier. He was a technocrat with a long background in the defence industry. Andropov had been an ally, a friend even, and Ustinov had been prepared to follow Andropov’s earlier wishes of supporting a younger candidate for general secretary. When Andropov decided that that wasn’t to be done due to the threat from Chebrikov, he put himself forward. His leadership of the Soviet Union, which would commence in the New Year, was meant to focus upon domestic affairs at home and continuing to ensure security for the state from threats based abroad. Ustinov would continue the military build-up at home but attempt to scale back the course of events in Latin America where Soviet and American interests were colliding. There would be other priorities for his government too such a making sure that issue with the Ukrainian breadbasket was fixed and that Eastern Europe was kept from rebellion. Those were all big challenges. Only the spending on more tanks, more aircraft, more missiles, more warships and so on would succeed. Instead, despite not wanting to, he would be at the helm of the ship of state when there would be complete reversal of all that Andropov had done in improving direct superpower-to-superpower relations with the Americans. Ustinov would lead his country to war with Andropov turning over in his grave at such a mistake. End of Part II Wall Street Crash of ’83, and somebody at the helm in the Soviet Union who is aiming for a war with more deaths then World War I and II combined, not looking good. Take in consideration that the economic repercussion will be greatly feeled even in the communist block; at the moment they are very dependent from Western loan and investment, plus they sell to them a lot of oil...a recession for them mean a recession also for the Soviet; Ustinov will probably desire of strangling the bunch of idiots that had created the situation, in Moscow, Havan and Mexico and it's very probable that Lopez will receive a letter from the new soviet leader explain that it's better mantain a more conciliatory attitude towards the western nation, in the name of peacefull coexistence and for his own health |
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 6, 2018 20:09:05 GMT
(102)December 1983: Two significant international events occurred in the last week of December 1983 which would push the world to war the following September. Without either, the Third World War couldn’t, wouldn’t take place. Even alone, neither would. The two of them, when combined together and playing into so much before and afterwards, would cause that conflict. Only later would they be looked back upon with the significance realized. At the time, the future wasn’t something that could be seen. The first was the Wall Street Crash of ’83. Just before Christmas, the stock market took a sudden and sharp slump. Billions were wiped off the value of shares in American companies. The follow-up would be no temporary blip as many would say in response: starting in the new year, the United States and then the West would enter a recession following the Crash of ’83. The economic effects would fast spread from Wall Street outwards across the world through nations far afield. It would feel like everyone was affected and that was generally the case too. Countries, companies, workers and pensioners around the world would feel the effects of the financial crash. It occurred on a Thursday morning in New York, though actually began late the previous day in the Far East on the Hong Kong and Tokyo markets. There were Asian banks which were holding a lot of American commercial debt, debt that was owed to them by Mexico and other Latin American nations. It wasn’t going to be paid. Mexico was steadfastly refusing to honour its debts and there was real concern that other countries across the region who said they would honour theirs just weren’t going to be able to either. They had all borrowed heavily to finance infrastructure while not using the money wisely. The realization came that that money was gone. The value of the holdings by Asian banks were corrected in Hong Kong and Tokyo. The next morning, with that in mind, there was an avalanche effect on Wall Street. American traders reacted to what had happened in Asia yet more so they were already gravely concerned over the state of the domestic US economy. The rate of personal savings was too low and personal debt too high. Access to credit was being restricted and inflation was climbing at an alarming rate. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve had both been trying to dampen the latest figures but there had come a news story the day before where it was alleged that both were doing so due to political pressure from the Kennedy Administration: his re-election campaign next year was to be run on how he had ‘fixed’ the economy. The correction from Asia was met with a correction on Wall Street. Things soon afterwards got out of hand. Other country’s debts were looked at too that morning, those being across Greece and Eastern Europe, so many more countries were there was real or perceived political instability that could cause complete economic collapse within. No one on Wall Street wanted to be the last one holding the debt at home nor abroad. Sell, sell, sell. Keep selling they just did. The New York Stock Exchange was closed early that day. The intention was to give the traders the afternoon off so they could reconsider their actions. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve made announcements about injecting money into the economy while working behind the scenes with key figures. By then though, Western European markets were opening and having crashes of their own. They had long been granting major loans across Eastern Europe – plus Greece, now sent over the edge into complete financial collapse – that all were looking lost. Panic hit Western Europe as well and they had their own market corrections. Too much damage was being done. It was irreversible, in the short-term at least, and would bring about that recession come January. Andropov died. The general secretary passed away and the country would need a new leader. Fast appointed by his colleagues in what wasn’t a unanimous vote (the way things were usually done) and instead a contentious decision to head-up the Funeral Committee for Andropov, was Marshal Ustinov. Chebrikov had been stopped from succeeding Andropov with the latter going to his grave with that knowledge and believing that he had achieved his goal of avoiding a future war. The alliances and secret agreements in the Politburo had seen upheaval at the last minute where Chebrikov was unable to gain enough support. Once Ustinov had that position to oversee the burial of Andropov, he was guaranteed to succeed his dead comrade as general secretary. That was the way things were done. Ustinov had the votes to assure his reaching of that position and, after the unexpected drama with the funeral decision, other colleagues who had favoured Chebrikov over him would rather see less drama occur when it came to that second decision and vote for Ustinov while urging Chebrikov to take a step back. Unity was what was favoured, not division. The unity would be for a man very different from Andropov. Marshal Dmitri Fyodorovich Ustinov was a military officer who had never served in the military. He wore the uniform and the (many) medals to show service in the armed forces though those had been during World War Two where he had been a military commissar rather than a soldier. He was a technocrat with a long background in the defence industry. Andropov had been an ally, a friend even, and Ustinov had been prepared to follow Andropov’s earlier wishes of supporting a younger candidate for general secretary. When Andropov decided that that wasn’t to be done due to the threat from Chebrikov, he put himself forward. His leadership of the Soviet Union, which would commence in the New Year, was meant to focus upon domestic affairs at home and continuing to ensure security for the state from threats based abroad. Ustinov would continue the military build-up at home but attempt to scale back the course of events in Latin America where Soviet and American interests were colliding. There would be other priorities for his government too such a making sure that issue with the Ukrainian breadbasket was fixed and that Eastern Europe was kept from rebellion. Those were all big challenges. Only the spending on more tanks, more aircraft, more missiles, more warships and so on would succeed. Instead, despite not wanting to, he would be at the helm of the ship of state when there would be complete reversal of all that Andropov had done in improving direct superpower-to-superpower relations with the Americans. Ustinov would lead his country to war with Andropov turning over in his grave at such a mistake. End of Part II Wall Street Crash of ’83, and somebody at the helm in the Soviet Union who is aiming for a war with more deaths then World War I and II combined, not looking good. Oh, yes, that is where we are going with this. I smell the sweet scent of Cold War-era, Tom Clancy-like, realistic historical fiction right there. And I love that smell. That's the style I aim for. The war will still take a few weeks to go to, but it will be a war like no other. In other words, "odious debt." Mexico was in fact the first country to invoke the doctrine, in the 1860s. Complicating things, the United States acknowledged the legitimacy of the concept along the way (historically--not in this case!), which I'm sure Tirado López will have noticed. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odious_debtThat was exactly what I was looking for earlier! Thank you. I had 'unequal treaties' in my head, something different I know but along those lines. Take in consideration that the economic repercussion will be greatly feeled even in the communist block; at the moment they are very dependent from Western loan and investment, plus they sell to them a lot of oil...a recession for them mean a recession also for the Soviet; Ustinov will probably desire of strangling the bunch of idiots that had created the situation, in Moscow, Havan and Mexico and it's very probable that Lopez will receive a letter from the new soviet leader explain that it's better mantain a more conciliatory attitude towards the western nation, in the name of peacefull coexistence and for his own health Oh, yes, and the economic issue will cause the problems across the Iron Curtain which come too. Ustinov will have many ideas to solve all of the many crisis' which keep springing up but won't be able to hold back the tide coming. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,860
Likes: 13,244
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Post by stevep on Apr 6, 2018 22:18:15 GMT
Yikes, the wheels are really coming off and there are definitely storm clouds ahead. Ustinov as a 'military' leader but as you say actually a political general and a technocrat [or someone who thinks he's one] may well not want war but could blunder into one.
Things are going really pear shaped in the world economy and at this point just about everybody will be hit, including relatively isolated locations like N Korea and Vietnam. The panic in Mexico about war will prompt a lot of migrants and this will increase the political and economic pressure on Washington.
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