stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 15, 2018 22:23:21 GMT
Not what I was thinking in terms of active interference but sighting reports might be made. That could be potentially explosive. If Cuba subs are in the veracity of the RN forces, which have been focused on ASW warfare, as they enter a war zone I can see something going gulg!
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 16, 2018 0:02:55 GMT
James You mentioned the smaller Caribbean islands but what about Jamaica and Trinidad? Checking the records the Jamaica Labour Party - which is actually the more right wing party in Jamaica won a big victory over the People's National Party in 1980 and then won an even bigger victory in 83 in a snap election after supporting the American invasion of Grenada. If their still in power in TTL I suspect they would probably support Britain as well, which would provide a useful base for a/c and supporting naval operations. Steve I forgot about Jamaica. I was focusing on those complaining about Grenada across on the other side of the Caribbean. Jamaica - and (non-fatal) submarine incidents - will be in the next update.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 16, 2018 10:02:13 GMT
James You mentioned the smaller Caribbean islands but what about Jamaica and Trinidad? Checking the records the Jamaica Labour Party - which is actually the more right wing party in Jamaica won a big victory over the People's National Party in 1980 and then won an even bigger victory in 83 in a snap election after supporting the American invasion of Grenada. If their still in power in TTL I suspect they would probably support Britain as well, which would provide a useful base for a/c and supporting naval operations. Steve I forgot about Jamaica. I was focusing on those complaining about Grenada across on the other side of the Caribbean. Jamaica - and (non-fatal) submarine incidents - will be in the next update. Wonder if Grenada is going to get into problems in 1983.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2018 11:01:31 GMT
I forgot about Jamaica. I was focusing on those complaining about Grenada across on the other side of the Caribbean. Jamaica - and (non-fatal) submarine incidents - will be in the next update. Wonder if Grenada is going to get into problems in 1983. It could well be collateral damage from this conflict. Kennedy probably won't do anything but I could see Britain deciding not to allow a Cuba base across their supply lines. [Or possibly news that Britain is considering doing something like that might stir Kennedy into moving 1st to both preempt Britain and also as something to quieten opponents of his inactivity while communists take over much of the Caribbean and central America. Its possibly even he might paint it as a way of showing he's not 'deserting' their British allies. ]
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 16, 2018 11:03:33 GMT
Wonder if Grenada is going to get into problems in 1983. It could well be collateral damage from this conflict. Kennedy probably won't do anything but I could see Britain deciding not to allow a Cuba base across their supply lines. [Or possibly news that Britain is considering doing something like that might stir Kennedy into moving 1st to both preempt Britain and also as something to quieten opponents of his inactivity while communists take over much of the Caribbean and central America. Its possibly even he might paint it as a way of showing he's not 'deserting' their British allies. ] So in the end by 1983 the United Kingdom could have slightly taken over a more independent role as power in both South America and the Caribbean.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2018 11:29:23 GMT
It could well be collateral damage from this conflict. Kennedy probably won't do anything but I could see Britain deciding not to allow a Cuba base across their supply lines. [Or possibly news that Britain is considering doing something like that might stir Kennedy into moving 1st to both preempt Britain and also as something to quieten opponents of his inactivity while communists take over much of the Caribbean and central America. Its possibly even he might paint it as a way of showing he's not 'deserting' their British allies. ] So in the end by 1983 the United Kingdom could have slightly taken over a more independent role as power in both South America and the Caribbean. Given that they have clearly been shown they can't trust the US to help protect [and their and their allies] interests almost certainly. Which will really upset the Tories as that would very likely mean increased spending, especially on defence. At least unless they decide to cut back on forces in Europe which with the current world situation seems unlikely. Not to mention that while the bulk of the American population will see the British point of view an independent British military presence in the Caribbean will raise some of the more reactionary hackles in the US.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 16, 2018 11:35:18 GMT
So in the end by 1983 the United Kingdom could have slightly taken over a more independent role as power in both South America and the Caribbean. Given that they have clearly been shown they can't trust the US to help protect [and their and their allies] interests almost certainly. Which will really upset the Tories as that would very likely mean increased spending, especially on defence. At least unless they decide to cut back on forces in Europe which with the current world situation seems unlikely. Not to mention that while the bulk of the American population will see the British point of view an independent British military presence in the Caribbean will raise some of the more reactionary hackles in the US. Well the US hand some issues in the beginning of the Falklands War of OTL if i am right, so why would the British listen to them regarding Belize ore the Caribbean.
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 16, 2018 15:36:17 GMT
It could well be collateral damage from this conflict. Kennedy probably won't do anything but I could see Britain deciding not to allow a Cuba base across their supply lines. [Or possibly news that Britain is considering doing something like that might stir Kennedy into moving 1st to both preempt Britain and also as something to quieten opponents of his inactivity while communists take over much of the Caribbean and central America. Its possibly even he might paint it as a way of showing he's not 'deserting' their British allies. ] So in the end by 1983 the United Kingdom could have slightly taken over a more independent role as power in both South America and the Caribbean. Maybe, but till now it's a zone outside the general interest of the UK, and while the current administration had show that all the longterm american allies better begin to think how to protect themselfs without US help, manpower and monetary issue will 'force' the UK and the other european nations present in the zone to pour resources together to fight off Castro and co. attempt to destabilize their possession. In this scenario the United Kingdom will be forced, at least till Kennedy is out of the white house, to lean much more in her european allies than to the 'special relationships' (that sometime IMVHO seem like the behaviour of a battered wife that still want divorce his violent husband) making the 'Iron Lady' a (due to circumstance) much more pro-european leader that she really want. Regarding Grenada, well the american doing something like that to pre-empt the British move it's possible, expecially if the war last more than a few days, accepting the 'fait accomploit' it's one thing, but letting the situation going for long time will quickly become a problem for the administration, with many that will point that the British are fighting american battles and that Kennedy it's too soft with the Soviets, treaty or not treaty.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 16, 2018 15:39:25 GMT
So in the end by 1983 the United Kingdom could have slightly taken over a more independent role as power in both South America and the Caribbean. Maybe, but till now it's a zone outside the general interest of the UK, and while the current administration had show that all the longterm american allies better begin to think how to protect themselfs without US help, manpower and monetary issue will 'force' the UK and the other european nations present in the zone to pour resources together to fight off Castro and co. attempt to destabilize their possession. In this scenario the United Kingdom will be forced, at least till Kennedy is out of the white house, to lean much more in her european allies than to the 'special relationships' (that sometime IMVHO seem like the behaviour of a battered wife that still want divorce his violent husband) making the 'Iron Lady' a (due to circumstance) much more pro-european leader that she really want. Regarding Grenada, well the american doing something like that to pre-empt the British move it's possible, expecially if the war last more than a few days, accepting the 'fait accomploit' it's one thing, but letting the situation going for long time will quickly become a problem for the administration, with many that will point that the British are fighting american battles and that Kennedy it's too soft with the Soviets, treaty or not treaty. Wonder if there is a airfield in the Caribbean where the British might station some Avro Vulcan bombers for this universe Operation Black Buck but then over Guatemala.
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 16, 2018 16:34:57 GMT
Maybe, but till now it's a zone outside the general interest of the UK, and while the current administration had show that all the longterm american allies better begin to think how to protect themselfs without US help, manpower and monetary issue will 'force' the UK and the other european nations present in the zone to pour resources together to fight off Castro and co. attempt to destabilize their possession. In this scenario the United Kingdom will be forced, at least till Kennedy is out of the white house, to lean much more in her european allies than to the 'special relationships' (that sometime IMVHO seem like the behaviour of a battered wife that still want divorce his violent husband) making the 'Iron Lady' a (due to circumstance) much more pro-european leader that she really want. Regarding Grenada, well the american doing something like that to pre-empt the British move it's possible, expecially if the war last more than a few days, accepting the 'fait accomploit' it's one thing, but letting the situation going for long time will quickly become a problem for the administration, with many that will point that the British are fighting american battles and that Kennedy it's too soft with the Soviets, treaty or not treaty. Wonder if there is a airfield in the Caribbean where the British might station some Avro Vulcan bombers for this universe Operation Black Buck but then over Guatemala. I don't know the Caribbean, but IRC the French will probably have the necessary infrastructure in Guyana, so they can be persuaded to let the British use them
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2018 16:54:40 GMT
Given that they have clearly been shown they can't trust the US to help protect [and their and their allies] interests almost certainly. Which will really upset the Tories as that would very likely mean increased spending, especially on defence. At least unless they decide to cut back on forces in Europe which with the current world situation seems unlikely. Not to mention that while the bulk of the American population will see the British point of view an independent British military presence in the Caribbean will raise some of the more reactionary hackles in the US. Well the US hand some issues in the beginning of the Falklands War of OTL if i am right, so why would the British listen to them regarding Belize ore the Caribbean. Not referring to the British listening to the US but the latter's desire to avoid any significant foreign military presence in the region. Even through their President is basically forcing the matter by his inaction, some Americans will be unhappy that Britain is militarily active in what they view as their back yard.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 16, 2018 16:59:01 GMT
Wonder if there is a airfield in the Caribbean where the British might station some Avro Vulcan bombers for this universe Operation Black Buck but then over Guatemala. I don't know the Caribbean, but IRC the French will probably have the necessary infrastructure in Guyana, so they can be persuaded to let the British use them There might be such bases in the British Caribbean but their probably under American control as after the base loans in 1940, which are still in effect at this point, Britain pretty much gave up a military presence in the region, especially after the various locations became independent. Which could be a bit awkward. Not sure how practical or worthwhile a Vulcan attack might be in this scenario. The communists probably have better air defences than the Argentinians had over the occupied Falkland Islands, and they have Migs providing air support so it could be risky. Not to mention with friendly troops in a relatively small pocket they would have to be careful what they hit to avoid hitting either military or civilian targets that are friendly.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 16, 2018 17:13:40 GMT
Wonder if there is a airfield in the Caribbean where the British might station some Avro Vulcan bombers for this universe Operation Black Buck but then over Guatemala. I don't know the Caribbean, but IRC the French will probably have the necessary infrastructure in Guyana, so they can be persuaded to let the British use them I think Jamaica might be a place for the Avro Vulcan bombers, its only 1,190 km from Belize and the Avro Vulcan can fly a distance of 4,171 km.
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 16, 2018 17:28:26 GMT
I don't know the Caribbean, but IRC the French will probably have the necessary infrastructure in Guyana, so they can be persuaded to let the British use them There might be such bases in the British Caribbean but their probably under American control as after the base loans in 1940, which are still in effect at this point, Britain pretty much gave up a military presence in the region, especially after the various locations became independent. Which could be a bit awkward. Not sure how practical or worthwhile a Vulcan attack might be in this scenario. The communists probably have better air defences than the Argentinians had over the occupied Falkland Islands, and they have Migs providing air support so it could be risky. Not to mention with friendly troops in a relatively small pocket they would have to be careful what they hit to avoid hitting either military or civilian targets that are friendly. Maybe a direct attack to Guatemala City as a show of force and to redirect assets away from the front, it not even necessary that cause real damage, only scare goverment and population
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 16, 2018 17:39:20 GMT
There might be such bases in the British Caribbean but their probably under American control as after the base loans in 1940, which are still in effect at this point, Britain pretty much gave up a military presence in the region, especially after the various locations became independent. Which could be a bit awkward. Not sure how practical or worthwhile a Vulcan attack might be in this scenario. The communists probably have better air defences than the Argentinians had over the occupied Falkland Islands, and they have Migs providing air support so it could be risky. Not to mention with friendly troops in a relatively small pocket they would have to be careful what they hit to avoid hitting either military or civilian targets that are friendly. Maybe a direct attack to Guatemala City as a show of force and to redirect assets away from the front, it not even necessary that cause real damage, only scare goverment and population Well at least they do not need to worry about the Guatemalan Air Forceas it only consist of 12 Cessna A-37B fighter-bombers: Guatemala’s Protracted War--The Role of the Guatemalan Air ForceThe British might need to make sure their forces on Jamaica are protested from the Cubans, one ore two squadrons of Phantom FGR2s might do the trick.
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