Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

  I remember the response to the Falkland's invasion OTL.  Even with Thatcher in charge there was a great level of unity - which cost us later of course as it helped her win in 83 .  This might be reduced slightly as instead of a 'white' group that are eager to stay British its a mixed race group that are due to become independent but that will largely be confined to the relatively small racial bigots element.  There will be a lot of anger about the sneak attack as well and probably, given we're taking about communists from an area prone to violent suppression of dissent, it won't be long before reports of atrocities comes out. 

  Havanna might be quite pleasant after the fall-out dies down.

For the Cubans and co.? Doubtfoul, very doubtfoul; here we are not talking about a nasty guerrilla conflict that will be complicated, long and will sapping...El Fidel, Don Raoul and company had decided to engage the UK in a conventional conflict in a territory where (for the Guatemalans) there will be next to zero local support.
Sure the Havana will have probably given their proxy the best weapons they have and their best 'advisors', still they are playing against a western army strenght and against their own so i don't see things ending well for them; the logistic strain will be even less than OTL due to the presence of bases in the zone (plus French and Dutch will help).
IMHO the conflict will end with a Guatemalan retreat due to a severe bloody nose due to the British reinforcement, their goverment will be a little shacky but brotherly communist help will make all A.O.K.; Kennedy will create a lot of more problem, maybe stopping the British final push against the invaders and letting them retreat with some semblance of cohesion (and with enough equipment to remain functional) with an offer to be the mediator in the dispute and to stop the conflict with a status quo ante (probably supported by the Soviets).
The Cuban will try to slow and harrass the British logistic train, but the risk of incident between cuban and British forces will be high and any serious 'terrorist incident' can cause some nasty and 'plausible deniable' retaliation by the UK

Here's one way to create turmoil: Margaret Trudeau, the former First Lady of Canada (she's Pierre's wife and Justin's mother), while her husband was PM, stated in her memoirs that she had an affair with Ted Kennedy in the late 1970s, IIRC. Now, if the KGB or their allies could somehow leak that bit of news, it'd cause much turmoil, IMO...

Grenada was a quick three day job with less than 20 deaths for the US armed forces; here the 'situation' for being resolved will need a lot more time and blood and even if both side will accept the diplomatic fiction of the cubans 'volunteers' and that that are the Guatemalans that call the shoot, more soldiers die and more thin the excuse will become; expecially if as has been hinted, El Fidel, Don Raoul and compagneros decide to obstacolate the British logistic effort in Belize.
What i mean, it's that there will be not an 'official' state of war between Cuba (and centroamerican 'allies') and the UK, but a series of incident (official or not, deniable or not, reported or not) in the zone (akin at the NATO/Libyan clashs in the 80's in the mediterrean, with the add of trick out of the C.I.A. operation against Nicaragua)

(I wrote more than I intended to!)



(71)

April 1982:

The British Government didn’t find out about the invasion of Belize from the BBC, certainty not from Radio Havana either. That was an urban myth in later years and a silly one at that. Yes, there was a government minister who was telephoned by BBC News asking if he was aware that Guatemala had gone to war with Britain by invading its territory, after the BBC had picked that up from Radio Havana who were first to declare to the world that the ‘liberation of Belize’ was underway. That minister did react with surprise and say something off-guard to the journalist, but the government already knew: he was at home unwell and had missed the call from his ministry. Regardless, that was not how the news reached London. The MOD knew before the Cuban media made their announcement as the reports of fighting had fast come there and the top level of the British Government was already assembling. Thatcher called in her Cabinet to an emergency meeting in Downing Street along with the service chiefs and intelligence officials. Further details came that the initial reports coming out of Belize were true. This wasn’t a border incursion but a full-scale invasion. Belizean soldiers and civilians were dead, so too were British service personnel. Belize was being flooded with Guatemalan troops who were bombing and shelling the country. What wasn’t supposed to happen, after Guatemala had been warned to back off, was happening.

The scale of the attack and the reports of the many deaths concentrated minds. This was no ordinary political crisis. The Cabinet was informed that as they met, more British and Belizean lives were certainly being lost. No one was in the mood to propose that anything less than a full response should be given to this. The country was at war. This wasn’t one chosen nor wanted yet one that Britain had got. Many things needed to be done. The Guatemalan advance had to be stopped and Belize freed of foreign occupation. Britain would need help from her allies. There would need to be domestic political moves made to unify the country’s leadership at a time like this. Those British troops still fighting, who were under quite the assault to overcome them, needed immediate support. The military officers and intelligence officials worked with the politicians to thrash out an immediate response pending one for the long term. Defence Secretary Nott came under pressure from his colleagues and failed to respond adequately; after the Cabinet meeting, the prime minister would ask for his resignation. It had been Nott who had strongly argued against a reinforcement of Belize last month when there had come February’s border incursions. Lord Carrington, the foreign secretary, had sided with Nott over others in Cabinet though he wasn’t asked to fall on his sword: he had more friends in Cabinet nor been so convinced that the Guatemalans wouldn’t act like they eventually had done.

Thatcher went to Buckingham Palace afterwards and had a meeting with the Queen. It was then to the House of Commons where in the early afternoon, she made a statement to her fellow MPs in a hastily-arranged gathering. There was silence as British politicians listened at first to how the attack was described as being without warning and then the reports coming of a lot of deaths. Once the prime minister told them that Britain wouldn’t stand for this, the House solemnly nodded in support before giving a ‘hear-hear’. There came cheers afterwards when Thatcher told them that the invasion would be repulsed, British forces would push the Guatemalans back and the Belize would be freed of foreign occupation. Almost all of the MPs present were with the government on this: the dissenters, there were always those, were few and far between plus chose this moment to shut up. The leaders of the opposition parties at once offered full support for the government’s choice of action and asked for the House to remember those lives lost already. Party politics weren’t shelved, just put aside on a day like this. There would come questions in the coming days, many questions on how this all happened and a lot of finger-pointing would also occur. That was afterwards though. Thatcher had a private meeting with those opposition leaders where as Privy Council members, there was more that they were informed about than was openly said in the House. Afterwards, it was back to Downing Street. A War Cabinet was being formed – technically a ‘crisis committee’ whose membership would fluctuate – and there would be a new defence secretary present: Leon Brittan. Those promises made to the House (carried on the BBC News’ afternoon broadcast to the wider country) about Belize needed to be acted upon. The troops fighting in Belize needed support and relief while there would at once have to a major effort to direct British military attention into the Caribbean.


Belize wasn’t in the area covered by the North Atlantic Treaty which formed the basis of NATO. There was no serious discussion among Cabinet of Britain calling upon NATO allies either for help to take an active role in the fighting against Guatemala that the government knew was going to be no easy task. British forces would do that themselves. Other, indirect support was needed though with logistics and basing for military moves while intelligence support would be invaluable too. Britain had island possessions in the Caribbean and so too did her NATO allies France and the Netherlands. Both countries were asked for assistance in getting British reinforcements to Belize and supporting the war through their islands. The Dutch gave a favourable answer as long as their island nations weren’t used for the purpose of attacks directly: staging of transportation and refuelling was fine, especially as all costs were to be covered by London. With France, Britain had a stroke of luck… though the French didn’t see it that way. President Mitterrand offered full French support with bases, logistics and to use French military forces to temporary cover NATO roles vacated by British forces moving towards the Caribbean. The generous offer came because Paris was informed that the French consulate in Belmopan had been bombed by Guatemalan aircraft on attack missions over the territory’s capital. Naturally, the Guatemalans hadn’t been targeted that building and the damage hadn’t been that major nor any French lives lost, but it was enough for Mitterrand. The facilities which France could offer Britain to use in the Caribbean were plentiful and in excellent condition. The reassignment to NATO role by French forces on the eastern side of the Atlantic was a bonus too for it freed up British forces with immediate effect.

Commonwealth countries from island nations in the Caribbean to the bigger Anglosphere ones had been involved (in different ways) when it came to the upcoming Belizean independence in the face of Guatemalan diplomatic opposition. The outrage of the Guatemalan attack brought about a good response for the British side. The little countries of Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines had all been involved in Belizean independence preparations as well as expressing joint concerns with regards to the situation in their neighbouring Commonwealth country Grenada to Britain recently as well. They were willing to open their airports and seaports, all for non-combat missions. Australia, Canada and New Zealand, further Commonwealth nations and also members of various security and intelligence alliances with Britain, gave affirmation of a localised increase in intelligence support through the Caribbean. Canada copied the French offer of replacing British forces in NATO roles for the duration of the conflict in Belize. In addition, the Canadians informed London that they were sending a warship down to the Caribbean with an active role in cooperation with Britain to be worked out later.

Support from the United States, Britain’s supposed biggest ally, was quite the complicated matter. Very quickly, London found out that Washington was going to be difficult when it came to the matter of Belize and Britain’s war with Guatemala. The Kennedy Administration had ‘concerns’ about the need for open warfare in Central America. There was no taking of Guatemala’s side, nothing like that, but instead a call for talks to be had if a ceasefire could be called in Belize. A ceasefire? Negotiations? When Thatcher’s Cabinet heard these things spoken of, there was an immediate anger as well as a realisation of why this was the case. Kennedy was getting his own back for events last year where Anglo-American relations had been strained. He was out for petty revenge and was willing to see British lives lost and British territory subsumed by a foreign nation just because he could. Britain wanted logistical and intelligence support from the United States, no more than that. Kennedy spoke though of seeing an end to the fighting. He was willing to see talks commence which would leave Guatemala with what they had taken already and in a position to gobble up the rest of Belize afterwards. No, no and no again. That wasn’t going to be allowed to happen. Britain pushed ahead regardless with the official requests made for that assistance, waiting on a formal response beyond Kennedy’s opening comments made through Mondale and Muskie. Glenn took part in a trans-Atlantic phone call with Thatcher and informed her of his president’s position on wanting to see an end to the fighting before it spread beyond Belize. Thatcher informed him that London wanted the same thing: an end to the fighting in Belize. That could only be achieved by Guatemalan troops leaving Belize, either of their own accord or after being driven out of the territory. Either way, Britain had been the victim of an intentional attack with lives lost and internationally-recognised territory invaded. There would be a fight made to restore the status quo ante, nothing more.

Within days of the invasion, as Britain worked with some allies and argued with another, it became apparent how deeply involved Cuba was in the war. It was Cuba which had toppled the former regime in Guatemala City after before eliminating Somoza’s rule down in Nicaragua. While Castro had done so, Ford had sat on his hands and done nothing. Kennedy was now willing to let Guatemala do what they were in Belize with the remark made that Britain was being ‘unreasonable’: a comment made to the Canadian ambassador when he was trying to impress upon the president of the need for American involvement. To say London was furious when that was heard would be quite the understatement. As to Cuba, that island nation was shipping arms across Central America and supporting the regime over in Grenada too with more weapons. The ongoing, low-level guerrilla activity in both El Salvador and Honduras was Cuban-backed too. The United States knew this, Britain knew this. Cuba was doing all of this and the Kennedy Administration wasn’t lifting a finger to stop them. The president was focused on his relationship with Moscow and seemingly out to see an end to the Cold War that way. Who was it who supplied Cuba and kept the country afloat? That was the Soviet Union. Kennedy was being told by many in his own country that Cuba had to be stopped and that they were using Guatemala as a proxy in their own aims to take over all of Central America but he wouldn’t go along with that line of thinking.

Britain continued on regardless of the lack of American support, using their own resources and getting help from other allies, while in the meantime Kennedy was still talking of a negotiated settlement and giving peace a chance. Cuba called upon the United States to allow for the ‘liberation’ of Belize by Guatemalan troops. Gromyko was at the UN and claiming that too Belizeans wanted to be liberated from British colonial rule. Kennedy eventually gave the nod for intelligence support to assist the British, including much help given behind the scenes in forestalling Cuban deniable operations to interfere with that. A UN move to censure Guatemala was passed without American opposition in the end too: Kennedy had considered doing so, pushing for his ideas of some sort of negotiation, but Britain had too much support from Commonwealth allies and then Western European nations as well. No resolution from the security Council came though because the Soviets made it clear one would be vetoed so Britain pressed ahead without one being stopped like that. All while Britain was still fighting and the alliance with the United States had come under its biggest strain since 1956.


Down in Belize, the Belmopan Pocket was forming. Through the first week of April and into the second too, British forces in Belize fell back to an inland position that was slowly being surrounded. Help was on the way and those there just had to hold. The Guatemalans pushed onwards with their Independence Brigade towards the capital city while the rest of the Revolutionary Brigade arrived along the coast with more men landing at Belize City and others to the southeast at Punta Gorda too. Those fighting were in trouble though not yet beaten. Superior numbers and then a lack of air cover pushed them into the defensive position which they had to take up: the Harriers which hadn’t been destroyed by enemy action were grounded due to the loss of their base with refuelling, rearming and repair facilities in the sudden way that had come. The Belmopan Pocket was crammed with soldiers, British and Belizean alike, but also civilians. Ammunition wouldn’t last forever and nor would the ability to resist when the casualties kept mounting. Guatemalan artillery remained poorly-directed but their Cuban-flown MiGs relentlessly attacked the ever-shrinking pocket.

Help was coming. Hold, the defenders were told, just hold for a little while longer. The Royal Navy was coming, the Royal Air Force was on its way. The British Army was sending men and so too were the Royal Marines. Soon, very soon, the defenders would get that assistance.

Not what I was thinking in terms of active interference by sighting reports might be made.