lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 13, 2018 14:26:23 GMT
So the British have been dragged into a South America war, this is going to be interesting. It will not be pretty either. Could it become more bloody than the Falklands War. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 13, 2018 18:51:41 GMT
It will not be pretty either. Could it become more bloody than the Falklands War. Maybe. It will be a different type of conflict. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 13, 2018 18:52:03 GMT
(68)
March 1982:
Before the overthrow of the last right-wing military dictatorship to hold power in Guatemala, the position of many of the allies of the new Guatemala which was now led by a left-wing military dictatorship when it came to Belize was that Belize should have its independence. Cuba, the Sandinistas before they took power and Panama were all then opposed to the idea that Belize belonged to Guatemala. That position had recently been reversed. Belize belonged to Guatemala, it always had! From Havana, Managua and Panama City, there came statements that Belize had been stolen from Guatemala in an imperialist theft. The colonial rule there by British was yet another historic injustice in Latin America that needed to be righted. There came only lies from Belize where the British said that the people in that territory wanted to become independent as a nation. In fact, Belizeans wanted to join with Guatemala.
The Cubans and the Nicaraguans had been saying this since last year with Panama now joining the chorus of claims of sovereignty being Guatemalan over the little stretch of land which lay between that country and the Caribbean Sea. Each nation had their own reasons for doing what they did in making these official public statements and engaging in diplomatic lobbying within international organisations. The Cubans were strengthening their alliance with their new allies by showing that there was full support from Cuba for Guatemala, Nicaragua and any other regime which might take power in the region that wanted to bring their country into the Havana-led Bloc of socialist nations. In addition, the Cubans were also upset at British ‘colonial interference’ in Grenada where there was a lot of Cuban activity and so sought to humble the British elsewhere in the region by having the Guatemalans get their way. Nicaragua was building stronger ties with Guatemala because Borge and the Ortegas were looking at the continuing counter-revolutionary problem on their northern border with Honduras: Guatemala lay on Honduras’ other border and Nicaragua wanted to squeeze that regime to bring the armed cross-border attacks to an end. Guatemala could help with that by threatening Honduras from the rear. Torrijos was out to portray Panama as a regional power and thought that he could read the way that the wind was blowing across the region: there was a winning side which he wanted to join. Moreover, Guatemala had a claim to Belize like his country had to the Canal Zone.
Cuba led the way in encouraging Guatemala to press its claim on Belize and to be prepared to enforce that if necessary. This was done by the diplomatic moves made abroad while along the frontier with that colony run from London, Guatemala started to deploy troops. Cuban aid was given in both: supporting the diplomacy and assisting with the logistics of the military build-up which took place through March. There were Cuban aircraft and helicopters inside Guatemala moving around soldiers and supplies. Furthermore, Cuba helped Guatemala conceal much of what was being done too. Nicaragua sent ‘volunteers’ to Guatemala starting in the middle of the month: these were serving military personnel who came under Guatemalan command. On the eastern side of the border, the troop build-up moved at breakneck pace with thousands of soldiers deploying into the jungle. There were further Guatemalan and Nicaraguan troops, special commando units, gathered around Puerto Barrios, which was Guatemala’s window on the Caribbean.
Britain believed that the military action in February and the strong diplomatic statements made would cause the Guatemalans to back off with their designs on Belize. They had thought that Britain wasn’t paying attention, such was the thinking in London, but once proved wrong, the Guatemalans would give up like they had so many times before when it came to Belize. London was heavily-focused on NATO affairs at this time yet there was still effort made to make sure that Guatemala understood. When motions were put at the UN, Britain quickly ensured that there was limited support for Guatemala. Many UN countries were involved in the effort to bring about Belizean independence and Britain had been working for that with what most saw as honest intentions. Guatemala’s threats towards Belize, to subsume it as well against the wishes of the people there, curried no favour with most of the international community. British Forces Belize and the BDF stayed on alert but there was a belief that Guatemala wasn’t going to act. If they were about to, the British Government believed that they would spot the preparations and have enough time to fly reinforcements to Belize. There was too the belief that the Guatemalans had to know that Britain would retake territory lost because the country had that capability.
This reading of the situation from London should have been correct. It wasn’t though. Castro was told by Andropov that if Guatemala invaded Belize, Moscow would have no objection. Active support wouldn’t necessary be forthcoming in public, but there would be no hostile measures from the Soviet Union. That lack of objection from Moscow made the Belize War of 1982 inevitable. Castro in turn gave the nod to Guatemala: restore the rightful claim to Belize for the Guatemalan people. In Havana, there was a belief that while there would be some heavy fighting, Britain would be unable to stop Guatemala from successfully invading annexing Belize. Cuba would act to help stop a British response too, anything short of actual war with the United Kingdom would be done on Castro’s orders. Neither Nicaragua nor Panama were aware of what Moscow had said and the approval given from Havana.
Guatemalan troops would attack come the beginning of April.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 13, 2018 19:00:48 GMT
(68)March 1982: Before the overthrow of the last right-wing military dictatorship to hold power in Guatemala, the position of many of the allies of the new Guatemala which was now led by a left-wing military dictatorship when it came to Belize was that Belize should have its independence. Cuba, the Sandinistas before they took power and Panama were all then opposed to the idea that Belize belonged to Guatemala. That position had recently been reversed. Belize belonged to Guatemala, it always had! From Havana, Managua and Panama City, there came statements that Belize had been stolen from Guatemala in an imperialist theft. The colonial rule there by British was yet another historic injustice in Latin America that needed to be righted. There came only lies from Belize where the British said that the people in that territory wanted to become independent as a nation. In fact, Belizeans wanted to join with Guatemala. The Cubans and the Nicaraguans had been saying this since last year with Panama now joining the chorus of claims of sovereignty being Guatemalan over the little stretch of land which lay between that country and the Caribbean Sea. Each nation had their own reasons for doing what they did in making these official public statements and engaging in diplomatic lobbying within international organisations. The Cubans were strengthening their alliance with their new allies by showing that there was full support from Cuba for Guatemala, Nicaragua and any other regime which might take power in the region that wanted to bring their country into the Havana-led Bloc of socialist nations. In addition, the Cubans were also upset at British ‘colonial interference’ in Grenada where there was a lot of Cuban activity and so sought to humble the British elsewhere in the region by having the Guatemalans get their way. Nicaragua was building stronger ties with Guatemala because Borge and the Ortegas were looking at the continuing counter-revolutionary problem on their northern border with Honduras: Guatemala lay on Honduras’ other border and Nicaragua wanted to squeeze that regime to bring the armed cross-border attacks to an end. Guatemala could help with that by threatening Honduras from the rear. Torrijos was out to portray Panama as a regional power and thought that he could read the way that the wind was blowing across the region: there was a winning side which he wanted to join. Moreover, Guatemala had a claim to Belize like his country had to the Canal Zone. Cuba led the way in encouraging Guatemala to press its claim on Belize and to be prepared to enforce that if necessary. This was done by the diplomatic moves made abroad while along the frontier with that colony run from London, Guatemala started to deploy troops. Cuban aid was given in both: supporting the diplomacy and assisting with the logistics of the military build-up which took place through March. There were Cuban aircraft and helicopters inside Guatemala moving around soldiers and supplies. Furthermore, Cuba helped Guatemala conceal much of what was being done too. Nicaragua sent ‘volunteers’ to Guatemala starting in the middle of the month: these were serving military personnel who came under Guatemalan command. On the eastern side of the border, the troop build-up moved at breakneck pace with thousands of soldiers deploying into the jungle. There were further Guatemalan and Nicaraguan troops, special commando units, gathered around Puerto Barrios, which was Guatemala’s window on the Caribbean. Britain believed that the military action in February and the strong diplomatic statements made would cause the Guatemalans to back off with their designs on Belize. They had thought that Britain wasn’t paying attention, such was the thinking in London, but once proved wrong, the Guatemalans would give up like they had so many times before when it came to Belize. London was heavily-focused on NATO affairs at this time yet there was still effort made to make sure that Guatemala understood. When motions were put at the UN, Britain quickly ensured that there was limited support for Guatemala. Many UN countries were involved in the effort to bring about Belizean independence and Britain had been working for that with what most saw as honest intentions. Guatemala’s threats towards Belize, to subsume it as well against the wishes of the people there, curried no favour with most of the international community. British Forces Belize and the BDF stayed on alert but there was a belief that Guatemala wasn’t going to act. If they were about to, the British Government believed that they would spot the preparations and have enough time to fly reinforcements to Belize. There was too the belief that the Guatemalans had to know that Britain would retake territory lost because the country had that capability. This reading of the situation from London should have been correct. It wasn’t though. Castro was told by Andropov that if Guatemala invaded Belize, Moscow would have no objection. Active support wouldn’t necessary be forthcoming in public, but there would be no hostile measures from the Soviet Union. That lack of objection from Moscow made the Belize War of 1982 inevitable. Castro in turn gave the nod to Guatemala: restore the rightful claim to Belize for the Guatemalan people. In Havana, there was a belief that while there would be some heavy fighting, Britain would be unable to stop Guatemala from successfully invading annexing Belize. Cuba would act to help stop a British response too, anything short of actual war with the United Kingdom would be done on Castro’s orders. Neither Nicaragua nor Panama were aware of what Moscow had said and the approval given from Havana. Guatemalan troops would attack come the beginning of April. So the Parachute Regiment will be the first to be send to Belize i guess. |
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 13, 2018 19:36:10 GMT
So the British have been dragged into a South America war, this is going to be interesting. It will not be pretty either. Almost assured, as it will be a conflict principally fought on land unlike the Falkland that seen more air-naval warfare; the key factor will be the help that Guatemala will receive from her 'allies'...but it will almost assured that will be quasi exclusively logistic and material (with some intelligence throw in), as i doubt Moscow and Havana will want openly support a serious fight with the British. This can be the occasion for Kennedy to mend things with the UK, giving them the same kind of support or even more...but if he botch this the diplomatic fallout will be epic; another source of general help for the UK will be the rest of NATO/EEC as in the OTL Falkland war (but with less problem). As a note for the italian navy, with the increasead tension worldwide it's almost probable that the law and burocratic red tape that allow only the Air force to operate fixed wing vehicle will be changed earlier than OTL 1989...allowing the creation of a combat wing of Sea Harrier or AV-B (if done while the Sea Harrier it's still in production, the british will have a better change) |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 13, 2018 19:39:43 GMT
It will not be pretty either. Almost assured, as it will be a conflict principally fought on land unlike the Falkland that seen more air-naval warfare; the key factor will be the help that Guatemala will receive from her 'allies'...but it will almost assured that will be quasi exclusively logistic and material (with some intelligence throw in), as i doubt Moscow and Havana will want openly support a serious fight with the British. This can be the occasion for Kennedy to mend things with the UK, giving them the same kind of support or even more...but if he botch this the diplomatic fallout will be epic; another source of general help for the UK will be the rest of NATO/EEC as in the OTL Falkland war (but with less problem). As a note for the italian navy, with the increasead tension worldwide it's almost probable that the law and burocratic red tape that allow only the Air force to operate fixed wing vehicle will be changed earlier than OTL 1989...allowing the creation of a combat wing of Sea Harrier or AV-B (if done while the Sea Harrier it's still in production, the british will have a better change) I start to wonder, is Cuba not stretching itself thin with all these operations here in South America and those it has in Africa. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 13, 2018 20:23:16 GMT
Almost assured, as it will be a conflict principally fought on land unlike the Falkland that seen more air-naval warfare; the key factor will be the help that Guatemala will receive from her 'allies'...but it will almost assured that will be quasi exclusively logistic and material (with some intelligence throw in), as i doubt Moscow and Havana will want openly support a serious fight with the British. This can be the occasion for Kennedy to mend things with the UK, giving them the same kind of support or even more...but if he botch this the diplomatic fallout will be epic; another source of general help for the UK will be the rest of NATO/EEC as in the OTL Falkland war (but with less problem). As a note for the italian navy, with the increasead tension worldwide it's almost probable that the law and burocratic red tape that allow only the Air force to operate fixed wing vehicle will be changed earlier than OTL 1989...allowing the creation of a combat wing of Sea Harrier or AV-B (if done while the Sea Harrier it's still in production, the british will have a better change) I start to wonder, is Cuba not stretching itself thin with all these operations here in South America and those it has in Africa. After his near-assassination in June 1979, Castro switched attention from Africa closer to home (covered in update #18). Those gunmen were sent by pre-revolutionary Nicaragua and he took out their regime then Guatemala. So for nearly three years, Africa has been forgotten. All that international prestige Cuba was getting - and it did - was thrown away for revenge. Cuba is soon starting to expand its military too, big time. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 13, 2018 20:41:15 GMT
(69)
March 1982:
As was the intention, Gromyko’s statement on a Soviet withdrawal of troops from East Germany and nuclear weapons from across Eastern Europe at the end of the Andropov-Kennedy summit in East Berlin threw NATO into chaos. Politicians and diplomats had been stunned by what had been said. There were questions asked on whether this would actually happen. There was speculation was on whether this was all some great maskirovka. Comments were made on the details of the numbers: 25% of all soldiers or just combat soldiers, did that include military equipment and was the 25% figure for the following year relevant to the current number or the number at that point after the first withdrawals? When it came to the nuclear weapons, which ones and how was that all to be verified? Gromyko hadn’t been specific in his public statement and Andropov wasn’t the type of leader to take questions from interested parties. All the NATO countries could do was to wait to see what the Soviets were going to do, whether they were serious. Kennedy was confident that Andropov was going to keep his word: everyone else, including many of his fellow Americans, were convinced he was wrong and would be shown to be the fool that they were sure he was.
NATO had a series of meetings throughout March where heads of governments, foreign & defence ministers and NATO committees met to discuss what had occurred in East Berlin. The message which came out to the public at-large was that NATO wasn’t going to be matching this apparent Soviet withdrawal with their own, especially not at once. NATO’s strength was its defensive capability of West Germany and the wider NATO countries and there was no reason to lessen it. The US, the UK and France all had troops inside West Germany – and West Berlin too – separate from any NATO agreement. The West Germans wanted NATO troops to remain in their country and nuclear weapons as well: on that latter point, Chancellor Schmid expended a lot of his shaky political capital on that point, something to regret later. The Soviet statement was unprecedented but it was being dealt with: that was the message put out. There were rumblings behind the scenes of the American president having a different view to other NATO leaders as well as to what his vice president had to say when Glenn came to Western Europe at the end of the month. There were no splits at the top level of the United States government on this issue, everyone was assured, though that left out saying what the actual position was in the White House over the long-term if the Soviets did as they promised.
The Soviets kept their word. Four weeks after Gromyko’s shock announcement, they started to begin the process of doing what their foreign minister said they would: withdraw troops from East Germany. Going through communications channels left over from World War Two and the Allies Powers of that conflict, under whose legality Germany east and west was still occupied, the Soviets informed American, British and French military liaison teams of the first of those withdrawals. The USMLM, BRIXMIS and FMLM stations across East Germany – home to intelligence officers free(-ish) to spy across that country – were told about Military Unit # 60654. This was an infantry division which NATO had identified as being the 35th Motorised Rifle Division. It’s strength was of two hundred tanks, four hundred other armoured vehicles, one hundred and forty plus pieces of artillery & rocket launchers and almost thirteen thousand men. From its garrisons near to Potsdam, the formation was at the beginning of the process of withdrawing from East Germany. The spies were invited to watch the redeployment of Soviet soldiers returning home to the Motherland.
It had begun. What was said wasn’t going to happen, or if it did it would only be a sham, actually started to occur. That division from Potsdam wouldn’t be the first to depart. Soldiers and combat troops, plus equipment too, started to leave East Germany. This was one division of nineteen in East Germany. There were two more of them in Poland, another five in Czechoslovakia and four more in Hungary. Those being withdrawn weren’t going far: the Motherland wasn’t that far away. Out of East Germany this one division would move starting at the end of March and through into April. Other units, combat and non-combat, would follow. Those others might not being going all the way back inside the USSR’s borders and instead elsewhere in Eastern Europe. There was no word yet on Soviet nuclear weapons which Gromyko had spoken of being removed too.
While Soviet soldiers moved out of their barracks and the long convoys started heading eastwards, NATO would continue to have ‘heated debates’ – arguments in fact – over the sincerity of this behaviour from the Kremlin. Further strong discussions would follow in the months ahead upon how to react. Was it all a trick or was Andropov really sincere? Had Kennedy pulled off a masterstroke?
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Dan
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Post by Dan on Mar 13, 2018 20:54:36 GMT
The first troops into Belize will be the ones who know it best and have experience of jungle fighting across blurred borders.
The Parachute Regiment will be there to back them up. The bar owners in Belize will be very happy, the insurance companies... Less so.
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 13, 2018 21:18:45 GMT
The first troops into Belize will be the ones who know it best and have experience of jungle fighting across blurred borders. The Parachute Regiment will be there to back them up. The bar owners in Belize will be very happy, the insurance companies... Less so. The Welshmen of 1 RRW and Gurkhas with 2/2 Gurkhas are already there. Behind them will come those deniable chaps then the Paras. I'm working on what else. It is a different mission from the Falklands and there have been some slight changes in UK defence posture. The war and the first British military response will come tomorrow. |
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 13, 2018 22:03:21 GMT
At least this time logistic will not be horrible as OTL Falkland, the British and the rest of his european allies had territories near Center America that can be used as bases even if very barely.
Without Cuban troops things in Africa will not go well for the communist in Angola as without the cubans the MPLA will lose, same for Mozambique and Ethiopia
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 13, 2018 23:21:51 GMT
It will not be pretty either. Could it become more bloody than the Falklands War. I expect it will be a lot bloodier and quite possibly one Britain could even lose, especially if Kennedy keeps being a cretin. As James says its going to be more a land war, which will be more attictional based and the regime in Guatamala will be willing to throw in a lot of men as will at least some of their allies. Also I can see some harassment of British supply lines by the Cubans at least, albeit in a partially deniable form if they can get away with it. Furthermore even if initial major invasion attempts are defeated, unless Britain is willing to go in and depose the current regime - which I doubt - it can simply continue a harassing campaign. On the plus side the Belize local forces will be defending their homes and the British are likely to be a lot better equipped and trained. Plus with what appears to be a reduction in forces in the Soviet forces in Eastern Europe there's the possibility of withdrawing some units currently committed to NATO. Also with a would-be member of the Commonwealth attacked we might get some assistance from elsewhere in the Commonwealth, and not just the white dominions either. A number of the other members could be uneasy at the idea of allowing borders to be changed by force. Do we still have Thatcher in power and pretty savage cuts in the RN as OTL? That could make it more difficult to maintain forces in the Caribbean. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Mar 13, 2018 23:43:14 GMT
Still working on my planning for the conflict but starting it tomorrow.
British forces in Belize, plus the locals, will fight. It will be no easy conflict. Cuba will harass the supply lines and the US president will want his revenge for the double humiliation from the UK in the last year. Guatemala will keep trying and even in defeat will not go away: its a land border.
The 1981 Defence White Paper - update #56 - covered some of this including a RN not about to be gutted. It has cost Britain dear financially but is dissuaded Argentina: not Guatemala prodded by Cuba.
There are islands across the Caribbean which the UK will make use of.
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Post by lukedalton on Mar 14, 2018 0:13:22 GMT
Still working on my planning for the conflict but starting it tomorrow. British forces in Belize, plus the locals, will fight. It will be no easy conflict. Cuba will harass the supply lines and the US president will want his revenge for the double humiliation from the UK in the last year. Guatemala will keep trying and even in defeat will not go away: its a land border. The 1981 Defence White Paper - update #56 - covered some of this including a RN not about to be gutted. It has cost Britain dear financially but is dissuaded Argentina: not Guatemala prodded by Cuba. There are islands across the Caribbean which the UK will make use of. Well harass the supply line will be a very probable move from the cuban (and only them, i doubt that the soviet want to be directly tied to this idiocy), the problem is that Castro do this (very probable) i doubt that the UK goverment will look the other way and not make him know how pissed they are...all in a very plausible way naturally, maybe the ITTL equivalent of the mining of harbors in nicaragua, just to send a message. Regarding the British vs the Guatemalans, well i see London go for the same answer Israel give to Egypt during the attrition war of 1970 aka disproportional large retaliation, it will cause some problem at home from the ususal suspect but nothing more as i doubt that the 'glorious army of the anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist communist brotherood' will have many fans internationally for invading a nation on the verge of independence. And Kennedy will botch this, isn't? Great, frankly while hoping that he will go away soon, i will suspect that many of the British politicians will look at the european project will more interest, expecially in defense matter if the hint about an increased pan-european cooperation due to the american horrible foreign politics. Btw, the 'Whiskey on the rocks' incident or equivalent happened ITTL? Just to add more trouble at the list |
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Post by redrobin65 on Mar 14, 2018 1:25:09 GMT
This Belize thing is pretty interesting. Good job.
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