Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

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July 1981:

Saddam Hussein was the President of Iraq and the plaything of the KGB. For some time now, Soviet intelligence officers had been playing what was called ‘the game with Saddam’. He was useful to Soviet interests. Like a tiger, he had sharp claws and liked to bare them. Using them was a different matter, he’d only do so when he thought it was in his interest, but those claws had been unleashed against Iran already. When those claws weren’t in use, they remained something of a grave concern for others. The egotist that he was, Saddam couldn’t imagine that he was being played for all that he was worth. The KGB were weary of going too far, less he smarten up, yet he showed no sign of doing so. He was menacing the Middle East and fulfilling many geo-political goals of the Soviet Union… all while thinking he was the one in control, not those from the Lubyanka Building. The game was complicated though for Saddam was a complicated man. The KGB could nudge him in only the direction he wanted to go unless they put in a lot of effort to focus his attention somewhere that he had no interest in. Thankfully though, Saddam’s gaze fell far and wide.

Since he had deposed al-Bakr to take the reins of the presidency, Saddam had engaged Iraq in a dispute with Syria. It had been the proposed union between the two countries which had forced his hand (though given a nudge by the KGB) into getting rid of his predecessor on that matter. The Ba’athists in Iraq led by Saddam and the Ba’athists in Syria led by Assad had different ideas and their war of words over the influence each other had in the Middle East, in particular Jordan which neighboured them both, had escalated into military tension which had seen a few short and violent clashes. Those pushed both regimes into Moscow’s hands with requests for arms met and a dependency on that. Iraq was seeking to expand its role in Jordanian affairs continually and Saddam was challenged not just by Assad but the weary Jordanians as well. Any hint of Jordanian rapprochement with Israel and Saddam was up in arms. It was the same with Egypt as Saddam was always ready with a tirade of angry words towards Sadat whenever that was mooted. Saddam looked to Egypt as the strongest nation in the region and the one most capable of engaging the Israelis yet he was jealous of Egyptian strength too. Egypt refused to put that to use, to take on Israel by retaking the Sinai and then driving on Jerusalem. Saddam badgered them to do so: he planned for Iraq to have a major role in that but could only do so following Egypt’s lead. Saddam raged against Western influence – American and British especially – in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab Monarchies. He called for Arab unity, Arabs dependent upon Arabs not the colonialist in Washington and London. Kuwait – one of those Gulf Arab Monarchies – was a frequent target for Saddam’s threats as he claimed that Kuwait was an historic part of Iraq stolen by Imperialists. The Kuwaitis were frightened in private though in public stood up to Saddam as they were sure that their friendship with the Soviet Union (longstanding ties) could rein him in. There was Iran too, still with territory occupied by Iraqi paramilitary soldiers there since the Soviet-led intervention. The government in Tehran had all the pretence of sovereignty over their own nation though there were both Soviet and Iraqi troops on their soil. Soviet troops kept the regime in power and were now winning the war against rebels but Iraqi troops protected Saddam’s political games to try and breakaway territory: Tehran wanted Iraq out of Iran before Saddam managed to breakaway Khuzestan and maybe more of the country. Finally, to the north, Saddam fought against rebels inside his own country in the form of not just the Kurds but Assyrians, Yezidis and other smaller minorities too. The Arabisation campaign of his had a knock-on effect through Iran, Turkey and Syria. Yes, Saddam had his attention everyone and in everyone’s business. He built up his armed forces, had major military parades and boasted openly of Iraqi strength. Much of it helped Moscow’s goal of Iraq being a menace to its neighbours and much of the Middle East too though the complexities of the game with Saddam were quite something. The overlap for Soviet interests, where Saddam helped some but threatened others, was difficult. The KGB tried as they might to get Saddam to do all that they wanted and nothing more: that was far from easy.

Beyond the Middle East, Saddam had been busy spreading the reach of Iraqi influence further afield. He menaced his neighbours with the threat of warfare – not an idle threat after how he struck at Iran; a great victory said Iraqi propaganda – though when it came to Europe, Saddam was seen as a friend. Before taking power he had been friendly with both France and with Spain led by Franco. The latter relations had become strained after Franco’s death yet France was still on good terms with Saddam. Italy was becoming more open to Saddam as well. These countries engaged with Iraq because Iraq had oil, lots of oil. While still an OPEC member and sponsoring the return of Iran into that organisation following its suspension, Iraq was selling oil at a discounted rate to France and Italy. In exchange, Saddam was equipping his military forces with items that the Soviets couldn’t or wouldn’t supply to him. OPEC had price & supply agreements yet Saddam was doing his own thing: Iran and Kuwait, both engaged in disputes with Iraq but following Saddam’s lead, joined with Libya as well in breaking OPEC agreements all to get favourable deals with parts of Europe in defiance of American restrictions imposed under their last president. The rest of OPEC couldn’t stop them. It was known that Saddam was behind this and there was a suspicion of Soviet involvement too but Iraq had become too powerful now to stop unless a major split was to occur within that oil cartel. The oil that flowed from Iraq was important for those countries who received it and they depended upon its free flow at favourable rates when other supplies elsewhere were more expensive. Furthermore, the French had sold Iraq a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes: Saddam wanted that for anything but. When the Israelis were behind the sabotage en route of vital parts for that, the KGB had had warning of what was coming but not lifted a finger to stop an attack made… but they did tell him afterwards that it was Mossad who had acted in such a violent manner. Saddam had dreams of the potential from Osirak.


The KGB’s man dealing directly with Saddam on a regular basis, their frontman for relations with him away from the Soviet government’s ambassador and other diplomats, was one of the deputy chairmen of the Soviet Peace Committee. Yevgeny Primakov wasn’t officially a diplomat nor a spy really. He had a role within that internationally-focused body alongside his academic duties back home. Primakov made many trips to the Middle East and Iraq was the most frequent of his destinations. Peace wasn’t on the agenda come July. Saddam had been focusing his ire more and more on Kuwait for the past several months. The Kuwaitis had seen military exercise after military exercise take place near the land border between the two countries alongside airspace violations and naval incursions into its waters. Kuwait had complained to Moscow and also tried to engage with Saddam by supporting him with OPEC (and making some money themselves while they were at it). That was all to no avail. Saddam declared in a major public statement that Kuwait was part of Iraq, its rightful nineteen province. He wanted Kuwait for economic reasons really, plus the addition motive of securing his ego as head of the most-powerful country in the Middle East replacing what he increasingly saw as a weak Egypt.

When Primakov came to Baghdad in his July visit, he told Saddam that Kuwait was no more than a mere ally of convenience for both Iraq and the Soviet Union. Should Saddam see fit to correct a rightful historic injustice when it came to Kuwait, Moscow would have no objection. He hypothesised that many other countries would agree, chief among them nations such as Iran and Libya, maybe Jordan and South Yemen too. So much for a peace envoy! The KGB’s game with Saddam would now take a darker turn. The reason for this nudge? Economics, it was always about money for Moscow. A war in the region, a small one followed by the expected diplomatic mess in the reaction of the Saudis, their allies in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the world, could only be good for the Soviet Union financially. Saddam knew none of that reasoning. He wouldn’t have cared. His tanks would go into Kuwait next month.

Ah, no. If it was Israel, Kennedy would care. He'd probably be forced to act by Congress if it was Saudi Arabia under attack. But Kuwait? Nope. There will be knock-on effects though. Domestic ones in the US and regional ones through the Middle East.

It's not do nothing just because, it will be more of a case of not being able to do anything. That goes for both the US and Britain too. There is no power projection capability in the region. The Saudis are friendly with the West but the lack of a resolution to the Israeli matter - they still occupy the Sinai and there has been no Camp David Accords - plus no revolution-exporting Iran hasn't seen them armed either with loads of Western military gear plus facilities for any Western military action.
The American & British governments won't be happy but will be unable to act. In the US, this will see many politicians up in arms at a Soviet ally doing this and demands for something to be done to stop Saddam moving on Saudi Arabia. It will bring an internal conflict in the US politically. Long-term, it will also embolden Iraq to act further too.

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July 1981:

The Red Army Faction had successfully assassinated Al Haig two years ago. Following that killing of the American general who was NATO’s operational commander in Europe, the West German domestic terrorist group had seen the full weight of the state come down upon them. The West German authorities had cracked down hard, pretty damn hard too. In addition, right before he resigned as Director of Central Intelligence following events in Iran, George Bush had authorised cross-agency actions to take place from the US Intelligence Community against the Red Army Faction too in response; his successor under Ford had continued that with Kennedy’s appointee not objecting to that carrying on either. There had come mass arrests by the West Germans against their own civilians who were part of or whom supported the actions of the Red Army Faction. The detentions had been long and with much made of what charges could be brought with bureaucratic delays imposed upon court cases too. As to American actions… there had been some mysterious deaths (not inside West Germany it must be said) of certain figures, especially those to whom Haig’s assassination could be tangibly connected. Those dead at American hands – often those of outsiders contracted to carry out America’s vengeance – were no longer a threat, naturally. However, many of those detained by the West Germans were slowly released from custody. West Germany was a state where the rule of law was paramount and the accused had access to very good legal assistance. The charges against many lacked real substance and a lot of the evidence against many wasn’t all that it was cracked up to be. Prisoners were released from West German jails. They went back to the business of terrorism soon enough. While they were away, the Red Army Faction had come under a lot of pressure yet at the same time, it was lauded by some for the act of killing Haig. For those who saw West Germany as a fascist state, those who saw NATO as an oppressor & the presence of foreign troops in the country as an occupation, the killing was a glorious act. Recruitment had soared to the Red Army Faction, especially in supporting roles. There had come a few moles too though not that many. Young deluded fools had been inspired by the Haig killing to join quite the ruthless terrorist group.

Throughout the year, as more experienced members were released from jail and newer recruits were given real tasks to carry out, the Red Army Faction increased its activities in West Germany. Their focus was on the state though with killings and bombings directed domestically. There were a few isolated incidents with terrorism directed against the Americans but those were generally unsanctioned acts by those still focused on the glory of killing Haig two years ago. The general theme of Red Army Faction action wasn’t to strike against the Americans, not at a time like this. If they did so, their contacts who supplied them with arms and safety across on the other side of the Iron Curtain, wouldn’t be so friendly to them. There had come congratulations from the Stasi officers who worked with the ‘anti-fascist freedom fighters’ inside West Germany for what they had done in July 1979, but a push made afterwards to not repeat that one speculator. The Stasi didn’t and couldn’t control the Red Army Faction but they held mighty sway over them. Why would the East German state intelligence authority care? Why would they stop such attacks? Because Moscow said that it wasn’t what wanted. If the Red Army Faction wanted to do such a thing, they were on their own.

The Red Army Faction carried on with what it did best. They undertook arson and bomb attacks against symbolic targets of capitalism and the fascist state. Judges were shot, including those who had been involved in the sentencing of those few terrorists convicted for their part in the Haig assassination. There were bank robberies made to finance their operations. By the end July, the death toll from their attacks starting in January reached twenty. Compared to other terrorism conflicts, for example Northern Ireland, that didn’t appear to be that significant. In West Germany it was though. The bombings and shooting didn’t always kill those whom were targeted. Bystanders and others – bodyguards and drivers – lost their lives too. Red Army Faction propaganda ignored these when possible or if not claimed that such lives were taken by the state. Recruits kept coming with fools deluded into thinking that there was a fight for something worth fighting for. There was the dream of the freedom promised, apparently more freedom than they already had. Despite all the efforts of the West German state – plus the Americans from afar too – the Red Army Faction continued their terror campaign. They were growing. Could they achieve their goals? No. But they could kill a lot of people while failing to do so and bring instability if matters came to a head. Meanwhile, the Stasi kept on sending them guns while Moscow nodded approval.

I'm Not sure the Red Army Faction could be that successful. True their ruthless and bigoted and the Soviets might supply them with equipment but indiscriminate terrorist attacks would greatly undermine any support for them and I would expect Bonn to play that card hard. Also making comparisons between them and the Nazis as murderous thugs. Also the Soviets need to be careful that any gun, explosives or other equipment they supply for such attacks can't be traced to them else it would really undermine the terrorists in many eyes and prompt a strong reaction across the west.

  James

  I think we're at cross purposes.  Quite confident they would kill a lot of defenceless people.  However think there would be a strong reaction in Germany against such attacks and that would help turn public opinion against them and moblise political will as well for their defeat.

  Steve