James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Nov 12, 2018 20:07:46 GMT
I couldn't see them getting the PdA to sea in this timeframe. Maybe later in the year but not yet. Britain is rushing the Ark Royal, moved it from Tyneside to the South Coast, but even then to throw everything at a ship as complicated as a carrier with such a small lead time is dangerous. So it is only the Dédalo with the Principe de Asturias being a nice target for a Soviet missile strike either from a Soviet bomber ore submarine. Major work is being done on it. The ship is over in NW Spain, the Atlantic-facing Ferrol shipyard. It is protected but an inviting target should the Soviets make their move. Well that's just about finished off the Soviet surface fleet in the western theatres, although the allies have paid a butchers bill to do so. Sounds like now that's done the bloc is finally going to make a move, possibly? I hope their not going to try and pretend their responding to the attack on Sweden through as that's obviously not the case. If it had been, especially since they knew of the threats to Sweden they would have stepped in when it was attacked. Yep, they are done. What's left of the Northern and Pacific Fleets are in the main covering the SSBN bastions. Western Europe is about to move and into Sweden it will be. Seems that soon the Soviets are going to get a grim reminder of their own vulnerability. That they are! Frankly i doubt that anyone will be interested in the official reason why the EEC has decided to enter the war; internally speaking from the first use of nuclear weapons to the attack at the nuclear plant, to the support for the remnant far left terror group to the last round of negotiaton and the kidnapping of the little child, Sweden and the developement in the Mediterranean are just the last straw. Plus, first you had said that the bloc don't have the possibility to meaningfull support Sweden and now you accuse them of hypocrisy because they have not done immediately That is all very true. If they wanted to, the Soviets could lay charges against France though... that is beside the point because they started this.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Nov 12, 2018 20:08:46 GMT
(285)
January 1985: Britain and Western Europe
Violence hit urban areas of England in the New Year. The worst of it, smaller than in other places but more-deadly (literally), was on Tyneside around the Meadow Well council estate in North Shields. A riot started a few days into January one night following police arresting of stone-throwing youths who targeted police vehicles responding to a break-in of a home which turned into a murder. Some food had been stolen but then things had gotten out of hand with a homeowner killed. Local kids did what they did, joined by young adults including many young men who should really have been in uniform but Britain hadn’t taken to full conscription because it just couldn’t afford it. The police responded with reinforcements and a petrol bomb (where did the fuel for that come from in times of national shortages?) was thrown which engulfed an officer. In a counter-response to that, shots were fired from armed officers against another young man carrying a similar weapon. Some of the mob ran but the rest were enraged and attacked the police with fists, boots and improvised weapons. Suddenly overwhelmed, the police retreated and in the darkness lost contact with a few of their officers. They went back to get them and found bodies: two officers beaten to death. A couple of unlucky youths, who may or may not have been involved in those killings, ended up dead themselves. Tensions were high and the violence the police met was extreme yet this was deliberate and thus inexcusable. Word spread in the wider community and in the following days another half a dozen people lost their lives: three policemen and three more civilians. Eventually, the Army – Home Defence Force (HDF) soldiers – showed up and covered the estate with men and enforced a dusk-to-dawn curfew. A lot of rain and some bitterly cold weather came in with those soldiers and the local troublemakers decided that this was a fight they couldn’t win. Thirteen deaths occurred in total, all over a few loaves of bread and some leftover meat cuts.
Birmingham, Coventry, Liverpool and Manchester each saw similar events though with a far lower death toll where local situations spiralled fast out of control. In Bristol and London, there was rioting as well where parts of these locations were hit with violence which fast took on a racial nature. Fighting the police or each other was one thing though when soldiers turned up, things changed fast despite it being the police who actually shot people rather than the Army who came ready with plentiful weapons. Each time it was all about small matters, usually thefts and robberies of rationed food and sometimes expensive goods to be sold on the black market – which was thriving – to buy more food. However, this violent rioting came alongside further anti-war protests which were taking place. To the authorities, that was what this was all about. Arrests were made of those behind the ongoing marches, events not co-ordinated on a national scale but which were still being seen up and down the nation.
‘No War, No More – We Don’t Want Your F**king War!’
The same chant was heard again and again, through other parts of the nation beyond those places in England where the violence was. There were scuffles with police and sometimes stone-throwing though never petrol bombs, outright murder or even targeted shooting at these events. Even over in Northern Ireland, where English rioters could learn what rioting was really all about, there was nothing on the scale of what happened on Tyneside. It must be said though that there was a particularly nasty incident in South London where an ambush saw a police van disabled, set on fire and the officers inside barricaded within before they forced their way out. They suffered burns but escaped alive: there had been eight of them who came pretty damn close to being killed in such a horrible manner. Organised attacks on food distribution centres by criminals eased up some in the New Year due to a larger military presence with HDF patrols increasing to take the burden off the police. Again, the sight of full-armed men in combat gear put off those people who branched out to smaller robberies instead, much of that setting off the rioting in urban areas in a knock-on effect. Food-wise, rations were increased in January when the government took the step of releasing part of their barrier stocks – a risky move; the Soviets could increase their scaled-back attacks on shipping – in a move to head off nationwide anger of what ‘little’ people received. Extras in the form of treats (more tea, sugar, chocolate) came too, all given by a government playing a Late Santa but whom so many people now wouldn’t have minded seeing strung up. That risk was taken with releasing some conserved stocks to the ration list because there had come some extra shipping that had arrived. Part came from distant overseas countries yet some more came from closer to Britain’s shores.
France shipped over ‘foreign aid’ with freight aircraft and also ships crossing the Channel. None of this had to be paid for and Britain really needed what was sent. There was food but also came munitions too. Crates of ammunition specific to military weapons in British service were sent as part of this aid package. What Britain wanted as well was oil – for ships and aircraft – but that France was unable to provide. All that food and ammunition was still very much welcome though. Whether any outside country, one specifically, wanted to complain was up to them: the shipments were still made regardless of France’s neutrality and Britain’s status as a wartime belligerent nation.
Warships would have been something that Britain would have liked to have France give them as aid too. France didn’t have them to supply. It was just something on Britain’s wish list if someone else wanted to play a Late Santa too. December and then January saw many losses occur and the wartime tally reach the halfway mark late in the month when it came to losses and major damage being done to the Royal Navy in terms of hulls. All those ships sunk or burnt out and dragged back to port added up. Shipyards were busy patching up many of those damaged or salvaging bits and pieces from the ones beyond repair so the figure of available ships was due to rise again… unless the Soviets struck hard again. The knowledge that the Soviet Navy was nearly a gutted shell, in a worst state than the Royal Navy, was a consolation but they still had many submarines left untouched. Submarines could sink a British ship just like barrages of missiles from their surface vessels could. On the matter of Soviet submarines, there was one of them which arrived in British waters in the middle of the month. It was a nuclear-powered attack model, one trying to slip through the North Channel between Scotland and Ulster to get into the Irish Sea. With torpedoes and missiles, or laying mines, even delivering commando frogmen, it could have caused a world of hurt. Instead, the Royal Air Force used a Nimrod to drop depth charges atop it. The submarine had been closing in towards the Clyde Estuary at the time and there had been the fear that it could be on its way to strike at Faslane or Holy Loch: the bases from where the Polaris and Trident strategic submarines of the Royal Navy and US Navy operated from. An emergency meeting in London took place while the hunt was on for the submarine after it was first detected and lost where the War Cabinet discussed using nuclear weapons (the Soviets had just done so in the Baltic Exits) to blow up this enemy vessel. Low-yield underwater blasts could have occurred. There was talk of a line being crossed, one drawn on a map. Arguments commenced over the potential act of using nuclear weapons on ‘British soil’ – it was British waters to be honest – but before then the submarine was detected elsewhere and attacked from above with conventional blasts. It surfaced and four crewmen popped out. They, and the RAF aircraft above, expected the submarine to sink. It did no such thing. The submarine floated, taken by the tides towards land. The sailors in the water were rescued by helicopter, only done because there was one nearby and the still-afloat submarine was present. They were in a bad way: not just being in the freezing water but suffering from radiation poisoning. There had been a nuclear accident aboard. In London, the politicians had a collective panic attack. It could break up on the shoreline off Belfast or the Clyde Estuary and give UK soil a nuclear disaster to deal with! Another discussion was held on the possibility of using nukes to stop a nuclear disaster… because that made sense, didn’t it? Then the decision was taken out of their hands. That Nimrod, still circling and awaiting orders, heard explosions underwater and then a huge air bubble reached the surface. That was the end of the submarine which went down in (relatively) open water. Its reactor didn’t explode and it appeared that it had been intentionally sunk by what crewmen were left aboard. There remained many questions and an effort would be made to find out the exact sequence of events plus look at that reactor, but the worst hadn’t happened. Many thanks were given to higher deities.
Over on the Continent, in an unofficial capacity, there were British representatives in Maastricht when a treaty was signed there between several Western European nations forming the European Defensive Alliance. The alliance was referred to in London as the ‘EDA’ or the ‘Maastricht Bloc’. It was a sort-of new NATO formed from eight nations. France, Italy, West Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg were the core nations who’d been discussing this for a while – and arguing over its meaning – and before they signed their agreement in the Dutch town, the leaders of those nations were joined by the Danish prime minister and the new Swedish foreign minister. Denmark and more-importantly Sweden were part of the EDA. The former had just been threatened with war by the Soviet Union and weeks before backed away from a fight while the latter had foreign troops on its soil who’d fought their way in causing huge casualties. Both were now part of a pan-European defensive alliance. To add to the geo-political shockwave this caused, the very next day saw the arrival of EDA (mainly French with smaller contributions from others) forces inside of the two Scandinavian countries. They came to defend Danish soil and also to stop any more of Sweden being occupied.
The Italian government was a big player in the EDA though it remained French-led as the country pushed for superpower status. Mitterrand acted for French interests first and then those of Western Europe in doing all of this. The West Germans went along with him and so did the Low Countries, effectively bullied into that joint action for what this one man wanted. He spoke of collective defence and the need for them all to protect each other yet he really was dragging them to eventual war. Denmark was quite the step to take but Sweden was even more so. The entry into Sweden of French forces put them right in the firing line of the stalemated Soviet-Swedish conflict. They were positioned in southern Sweden outside of the immediate frontlines yet the distances from Soviets forces still exchanging fire with the Swedes and where the French turned up wasn’t that far. Their 11th Airborne Division (some West Germans came along for the trip: paratroopers and mountain troops) arrived in the Gothenburg area by air with Swedish assistance then given to transferring in French combat aircraft through the last days of January. The 6th Light Armored Division was already rolling into Denmark – across from West Germany – joined by a mixed Italian brigade including Belgians and Dutch, while the French 9th Marine Infantry Division (light armour rather than marines) began a sea transfer from northern France also heading for Gothenburg. This would mean going through the North Sea and then the outer Baltic Exits, the latter of which those dozen-plus Soviet ships from their Baltic Fleet had recently fought their way through. The French secured from London information on certain parts of the Skagerrak to avoid, areas where the Royal Navy had just mined.
French entry of military forces into Sweden, as well as the moves by more forces into Denmark, made the EDA not just a piece of paper full of empty threats. Those two countries on the Baltic were now firmly part of a French-led military alliance ready for war with the Soviet Union. From Paris, the Soviets were forcefully informed that no more Swedish soil was to be occupied and there then came the demand that Soviet forces leave… though no direct deadline was given on that, something Bonn had secured from Paris. Through West Germany and down into the Med., there were other forward deployments which while not on the scale of Scandinavia still mattered a great deal. Mitterrand was giving the Soviets an answer to all that they had done to France and its interests. They had done all they had – including still holding his daughter as a hostage – but he was settling scores with them now. The alliance formed in Maastricht and the military deployments made brought war between Western Europe and the Soviets right to the brink.
Your move, Tovarich Vorotnikov.
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by forcon on Nov 12, 2018 20:47:09 GMT
I'm hoping the Europeans see sense and join the Allies; even if they don't, however, it's good to see the French shipping supplies over to the UK.
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dunois
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Post by dunois on Nov 12, 2018 22:05:56 GMT
I am somewhat surprised that the internal situation of the UK seems to be that bad. Sure, fewer imports coming in won't help the economy but the UK should be ok in key areas such as energy. Firstly, the North Sea is at peak production at that time, secondly the coal mines are still there and a smart government would do whatever it takes to end the Miners strike there and then! Petrol rationing will be useful but the rations are likely to be fairly large even with a goal of reducing civilian consumption by 50% and private motoring will likely bear the brunt of the cuts. Food wise the UK was 78% self-sufficient in food in 1984 and 95% self-sufficient for indigenous food types. I got that data from Defra, the stats are available webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130123162956/http:/www.defra.gov.uk/statistics/files/defra-stats-foodfarm-food-trade-selfsuff-120904.xls. Therefore, large scale rationning is unlikely to occur, especially of bread and other staples. Bananas and fruits will become more expensive, chocolate will also become dearer. Money wise, the UK is actually less indebted in 1984 than now. The compulsory savings suggested but not adopted by Keynes in WW2 may make a reappearance here if the government is pragmatic and willing to think outside of the box. The war will be costly for sure, but then the UK may be in a good position post-war toi repay its debts fast. Why? The Soviet, Mexican Gulf and some Middle Eastern oilfields will be out of action so the North Sea may reap the benefits ... I can imagine that the country will be bitterly divided internally though and riots are not unlikely.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 12, 2018 23:14:52 GMT
Well that's just about finished off the Soviet surface fleet in the western theatres, although the allies have paid a butchers bill to do so. Sounds like now that's done the bloc is finally going to make a move, possibly? I hope their not going to try and pretend their responding to the attack on Sweden through as that's obviously not the case. If it had been, especially since they knew of the threats to Sweden they would have stepped in when it was attacked. Frankly i doubt that anyone will be interested in the official reason why the EEC has decided to enter the war; internally speaking from the first use of nuclear weapons to the attack at the nuclear plant, to the support for the remnant far left terror group to the last round of negotiaton and the kidnapping of the little child, Sweden and the developement in the Mediterranean are just the last straw. Plus, first you had said that the bloc don't have the possibility to meaningfull support Sweden and now you accuse them of hypocrisy because they have not done immediately
I said that they didn't have much chance to stop a full scale Soviet invasion, which is what I was initially assuming. What they might have done was declare war in support of Sweden and then become involved in clashes with the Soviet Baltic fleet as it sought to break out, as that was being suggested as the prime reason for their concern if it successfully established itself in the North Sea. They did neither and haven't responded to the Soviet Black Sea fleet pushing for the Gibraltar straits, at least not on time to contest that. [Still to read any later posts]. I made that comment because it was suggested that the Soviet pressure on then attack on Sweden was a major trigger but if so its a bloody slow firing gun.
True if/when they join the conflict neutral bloc would no longer be accurate and you would note I've just been using bloc for a while. As you know EEC is definitely factually inaccurate, both because the bloc excludes several two members already at was and because the EEC has no military identity and organisation.
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Post by redrobin65 on Nov 12, 2018 23:26:23 GMT
.....Battle of the Fulda Gap, going eastwards this time?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 12, 2018 23:38:12 GMT
I am somewhat surprised that the internal situation of the UK seems to be that bad. Sure, fewer imports coming in won't help the economy but the UK should be ok in key areas such as energy. Firstly, the North Sea is at peak production at that time, secondly the coal mines are still there and a smart government would do whatever it takes to end the Miners strike there and then! Petrol rationing will be useful but the rations are likely to be fairly large even with a goal of reducing civilian consumption by 50% and private motoring will likely bear the brunt of the cuts. Food wise the UK was 78% self-sufficient in food in 1984 and 95% self-sufficient for indigenous food types. I got that data from Defra, the stats are available webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130123162956/http:/www.defra.gov.uk/statistics/files/defra-stats-foodfarm-food-trade-selfsuff-120904.xls. Therefore, large scale rationning is unlikely to occur, especially of bread and other staples. Bananas and fruits will become more expensive, chocolate will also become dearer. Money wise, the UK is actually less indebted in 1984 than now. The compulsory savings suggested but not adopted by Keynes in WW2 may make a reappearance here if the government is pragmatic and willing to think outside of the box. The war will be costly for sure, but then the UK may be in a good position post-war toi repay its debts fast. Why? The Soviet, Mexican Gulf and some Middle Eastern oilfields will be out of action so the North Sea may reap the benefits ... I can imagine that the country will be bitterly divided internally though and riots are not unlikely.
Would agree about the coal although a lot of the oil-rigs have probably been hit and possibly also a lot of attacks on coal power stations and parts of the distribution system perhaps?
However agree on your other points. A lot of the privatisations hadn't happened yet so it would be easier to run a war-time economy. Likely to be a lot of corruption, we're talking about Thatcherism here, but also a strong desire to clamp down on it, especially with a national government having been formed. Also given how high many living standards are compared to much of the world at the time there is a fair amount of fat to cut, especially compared to 1940 say. Plus there would still be a lot of people with experience of either WWII or the post-war scarcity to help keep demands reasonable. Furthermore since Britain has been the subject of a clear attack and has no practical hope of a realistic separate peace I don't think there would be many people thinking an anti-war movement has much point. More likely as with the Blitz there would be a desire for revenge, although at this point little chance of really seeing any. Imports from outside W Europe could have been hit pretty heavily as the RN is of course a lot smaller than in WWII and have been heavily engaged in seeking to defend Britain itself and supporting Norway.
The difficult point to measure is that Britain has been fighting largely alone, along with Spain, Portugal, Norway and Ireland, which has led to the European allies being largely exposed and with the Americans distracted by their own invasion and the Soviet capture of Iceland there have been attacks from all fronts while the desertion of most of the European allies will have been a big hit to morale. From James's last post some stuff have come from Europe and it sounds like as aid rather than them expecting payment for it later but given the bloc's desire to stay out of the shooting war how much is that known to the public. As such there's going to be a measure of depression about this and distrust of the bloc members, given how much Britain has paid as a result. [Similarly feelings no doubt in the other European NATO members and Spain but possibly more so in Britain because it had committed substantial forces to the 'allies' that deserted it.]
This might be affected when news of the new EDA is made public, although the fact that its still not formally committed to opposing the Soviets will reduce that feeling a lot as NATO is still left to do all the fighting unless and until the Soviets actually engage the EDA militarily, which is probably going to be soon.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 12, 2018 23:42:40 GMT
.....Battle of the Fulda Gap, going eastwards this time?
Very much doubt it. The EDA is making clear it will give the Soviets the 1st strike so forces would be heading westwards 1st. Depending on what source they will either be stopped about on the Rhine or go further so its unlikely unless there's a sudden Soviet collapse that their forces or allied ones will be pushing eastwards in the near future. Especially if the Soviets were to see sense and stop pushing in China and start pull some of those forces heading fro China back to fight in western Europe. However hope they can hold, especially short of France as that could lead to a nuclear exchange.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 12, 2018 23:54:02 GMT
James
Well the bloc have made a kind of move. It does give the Soviets the choice of whether to strike - which they almost certainly will unless there's a coup against Vorotnikov and would lead to heavy fighting in W Germany and Denmark at least. Possibly more if the Soviets actually have the sense to establish defensive positions in China and pull back some of the forces they have heading east currently. In that case the EDA may even need British help although since their in a different alliance issues of C&C would have to be sorted out. Ideally they won't and Britain can use the pause to rebuild and preferably help Norway and liberate Iceland which would do a huge amount to improve Britain's security.
Its good that at least some of what's come from the continent has been as aid rather than with expectation of payment afterwards but as I said replying to dunois I'm not sure how public that's been.
Hopefully the worst is over now for the allies although the EDA is likely to have some bitter fighting ahead. If the US can defeat the final Soviet push in N America things could fall apart for the enemy there, although the yanks are going to take some nasty losses with those poorly trained recruits. Then they can help out with the securing of the N Atlantic and probably start to bash Cuba as the easiest way of restoring independence for the occupied parts of the Caribbean. They may be reluctant to help out the EDA too directly however depending on the circumstances.
Steve
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dunois
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Post by dunois on Nov 13, 2018 0:40:57 GMT
Would agree about the coal although a lot of the oil-rigs have probably been hit and possibly also a lot of attacks on coal power stations and parts of the distribution system perhaps?
However agree on your other points. A lot of the privatisations hadn't happened yet so it would be easier to run a war-time economy. Likely to be a lot of corruption, we're talking about Thatcherism here, but also a strong desire to clamp down on it, especially with a national government having been formed. Also given how high many living standards are compared to much of the world at the time there is a fair amount of fat to cut, especially compared to 1940 say. Plus there would still be a lot of people with experience of either WWII or the post-war scarcity to help keep demands reasonable. Furthermore since Britain has been the subject of a clear attack and has no practical hope of a realistic separate peace I don't think there would be many people thinking an anti-war movement has much point. More likely as with the Blitz there would be a desire for revenge, although at this point little chance of really seeing any. Imports from outside W Europe could have been hit pretty heavily as the RN is of course a lot smaller than in WWII and have been heavily engaged in seeking to defend Britain itself and supporting Norway.
The difficult point to measure is that Britain has been fighting largely alone, along with Spain, Portugal, Norway and Ireland, which has led to the European allies being largely exposed and with the Americans distracted by their own invasion and the Soviet capture of Iceland there have been attacks from all fronts while the desertion of most of the European allies will have been a big hit to morale. From James's last post some stuff have come from Europe and it sounds like as aid rather than them expecting payment for it later but given the bloc's desire to stay out of the shooting war how much is that known to the public. As such there's going to be a measure of depression about this and distrust of the bloc members, given how much Britain has paid as a result. [Similarly feelings no doubt in the other European NATO members and Spain but possibly more so in Britain because it had committed substantial forces to the 'allies' that deserted it.]
This might be affected when news of the new EDA is made public, although the fact that its still not formally committed to opposing the Soviets will reduce that feeling a lot as NATO is still left to do all the fighting unless and until the Soviets actually engage the EDA militarily, which is probably going to be soon.
The Electricity grid is not necessarily an easy target, because its a grid. Take out one part and the other part can take-up sone of the slack. Power stations could be fairly easy to known down if the transformers are destroyed. There's no need to attack the maon buildings etc, just take out the transformers and the electricity simply can't get out. There's a caveat though, its a relatively small target that will be easy to miss with bombing or even with missiles whose accuracy is always approximate + or - 100m or thereabouts. Back in 1984 the UK also had a lot more power stations and spare capacity than now. Energy saving measures will further help too. What may have significantly screwed up the UK is poor pre-war planning. All planning was for a nuclear war that hasn't taken place. The current situation was not planned for so this may have significantly complicated things.
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Post by redrobin65 on Nov 13, 2018 2:14:30 GMT
That last update got me thinking: with all the nukes and nuke reactors destroyed/detonated, the environment must have taken a beating. Nuclear strikes in the US, USSR, Mexico and China. Nuclear minesweeping in the Baltic. Nuclear powered carriers, battlecruisers, cruisers, and submarines sunk. So...will people go hunting for six eyed fish in the late '90s? Hopefully not (never say never) but there will probably be contaminated parts of the ocean, and don't forget fallout from tactical and strategic nukes on land.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 13, 2018 11:30:39 GMT
I'm hoping the Europeans see sense and join the Allies; even if they don't, however, it's good to see the French shipping supplies over to the UK.
Sorry missed this in my pass through the thread last night. I think their pretty certain to become co-belligerences against the Soviets but not sure of any formal alliance. For one thing that would raise questions of control of respective forces and I suspect neither side would be that willing to give up real say to the other. I can't see the US being willing to put any units under EDA control and the European NATO members are only going to do that in extremist while I suspect the EDA would be unwilling to give up any power at all over its forces. That's another reason why, unless it became a necessity that it would be unlikely Britain would send forces to the German front.
For another thing its clear that the EDA is still seeking to avoid fighting the Soviets, although I think they will fail there. Having seen the Soviets defeated in both naval offensives, at least in the short term, they may be thinking a rational Soviet leadership will avoid adding them to their list of opponents and just continue fighting the allies and the Chinese. Especially since war with the EDA would lose what little gains the Soviet fleets have managed as what's left would be isolated in the Med and the Baltic straits would be closed again. Which suggests they haven't been paying attention given what Moscow has been doing. However they did nothing militarily to oppose either Soviet thrust, relying on NATO to defeat the Soviet navies and only intervening in Sweden when the Soviets limited their offensive which meant their avoided a military clash so far.
This latter might change if/when their actually at war but the tone of the EDA actions is very much they wish to keep their distance from the alliance.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 13, 2018 11:42:27 GMT
Would agree about the coal although a lot of the oil-rigs have probably been hit and possibly also a lot of attacks on coal power stations and parts of the distribution system perhaps?
However agree on your other points. A lot of the privatisations hadn't happened yet so it would be easier to run a war-time economy. Likely to be a lot of corruption, we're talking about Thatcherism here, but also a strong desire to clamp down on it, especially with a national government having been formed. Also given how high many living standards are compared to much of the world at the time there is a fair amount of fat to cut, especially compared to 1940 say. Plus there would still be a lot of people with experience of either WWII or the post-war scarcity to help keep demands reasonable. Furthermore since Britain has been the subject of a clear attack and has no practical hope of a realistic separate peace I don't think there would be many people thinking an anti-war movement has much point. More likely as with the Blitz there would be a desire for revenge, although at this point little chance of really seeing any. Imports from outside W Europe could have been hit pretty heavily as the RN is of course a lot smaller than in WWII and have been heavily engaged in seeking to defend Britain itself and supporting Norway.
The difficult point to measure is that Britain has been fighting largely alone, along with Spain, Portugal, Norway and Ireland, which has led to the European allies being largely exposed and with the Americans distracted by their own invasion and the Soviet capture of Iceland there have been attacks from all fronts while the desertion of most of the European allies will have been a big hit to morale. From James's last post some stuff have come from Europe and it sounds like as aid rather than them expecting payment for it later but given the bloc's desire to stay out of the shooting war how much is that known to the public. As such there's going to be a measure of depression about this and distrust of the bloc members, given how much Britain has paid as a result. [Similarly feelings no doubt in the other European NATO members and Spain but possibly more so in Britain because it had committed substantial forces to the 'allies' that deserted it.]
This might be affected when news of the new EDA is made public, although the fact that its still not formally committed to opposing the Soviets will reduce that feeling a lot as NATO is still left to do all the fighting unless and until the Soviets actually engage the EDA militarily, which is probably going to be soon.
The Electricity grid is not necessarily an easy target, because its a grid. Take out one part and the other part can take-up sone of the slack. Power stations could be fairly easy to known down if the transformers are destroyed. There's no need to attack the maon buildings etc, just take out the transformers and the electricity simply can't get out. There's a caveat though, its a relatively small target that will be easy to miss with bombing or even with missiles whose accuracy is always approximate + or - 100m or thereabouts. Back in 1984 the UK also had a lot more power stations and spare capacity than now. Energy saving measures will further help too. What may have significantly screwed up the UK is poor pre-war planning. All planning was for a nuclear war that hasn't taken place. The current situation was not planned for so this may have significantly complicated things.
Good points on the grid but I know it was considered a vulnerable point and it depends on how accurate, or simply how much the Soviets have been chucking at Britain. Seems to be a lot especially since the defection of the bloc means their been able to ignore the bulk of the pre-war NATO forces and targets.
As you say one problem would be lack of suitable planning as this was a war no one in the west expected. The 70's were a period of decline in spending and this increased drastically in in 80's as well as the big swing away from active government intervention. However at this stage even the Tories are likely to be forced to think again and there are still some 'Wets' about as well as a lot of people with experience of planning from earlier wars. Plus I'm pretty certain a national government was formed and while Foot, if Labour leader as OTL would be a poor fit given his pacifist views a lot of the alliance would be able to give useful input.
Also if the bloc is sending substantial aid then given the size of the CAP surpluses at this point food shouldn't be a great problem - which ironically means Britain would get something back for the huge payments it was making into the EEC in previous years.
A lot depends on the level of attacks Britain has sustained, the amount of support it has obtained from the bloc and how well or not government has responded to the challenges of war. I can't really see any great anti-war movement given that its a war Britain didn't want and can't get out of - short of unconditional surrender, while the nature of the Soviet attacks, with widespread targeting of civilians and outright murders is likely to prompt anger against them in most of the population. Anger at the government when it makes mistakes, which is likely to be seen as fairly frequent but that would be more likely, as in 45, to result in a desire for change after the war than violent attacks during it.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Nov 13, 2018 11:47:53 GMT
That last update got me thinking: with all the nukes and nuke reactors destroyed/detonated, the environment must have taken a beating. Nuclear strikes in the US, USSR, Mexico and China. Nuclear minesweeping in the Baltic. Nuclear powered carriers, battlecruisers, cruisers, and submarines sunk. So...will people go hunting for six eyed fish in the late '90s? Hopefully not (never say never) but there will probably be contaminated parts of the ocean, and don't forget fallout from tactical and strategic nukes on land.
Definitely going to be a problem and those under-water strikes will cause a lot of fall-out, even if the initial bombs themselves were fairly clean, simply because the fireball will encompass a lot of water and probably some soil as well. A lot of people will be concerned, especially after the war when the initial crisis is over and they can think of such issues. At the moment some areas/materials being somewhat 'hot' is something most people will simply have to put up with, especially in China, the USSR and the Baltic straits. In Mexico there probably isn't enough organisation to do a lot about fall-out and people possibly fleeing the disorder and destruction of the capital anyway. The US may have the room and capacity to try and warn people away from fall-out areas but that would depend on the levels and how widespread they are.
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Post by eurowatch on Nov 13, 2018 12:47:45 GMT
I'm hoping the Europeans see sense and join the Allies; even if they don't, however, it's good to see the French shipping supplies over to the UK.
Sorry missed this in my pass through the thread last night. I think their pretty certain to become co-belligerences against the Soviets but not sure of any formal alliance. For one thing that would raise questions of control of respective forces and I suspect neither side would be that willing to give up real say to the other. I can't see the US being willing to put any units under EDA control and the European NATO members are only going to do that in extremist while I suspect the EDA would be unwilling to give up any power at all over its forces. That's another reason why, unless it became a necessity that it would be unlikely Britain would send forces to the German front.
For another thing its clear that the EDA is still seeking to avoid fighting the Soviets, although I think they will fail there. Having seen the Soviets defeated in both naval offensives, at least in the short term, they may be thinking a rational Soviet leadership will avoid adding them to their list of opponents and just continue fighting the allies and the Chinese. Especially since war with the EDA would lose what little gains the Soviet fleets have managed as what's left would be isolated in the Med and the Baltic straits would be closed again. Which suggests they haven't been paying attention given what Moscow has been doing. However they did nothing militarily to oppose either Soviet thrust, relying on NATO to defeat the Soviet navies and only intervening in Sweden when the Soviets limited their offensive which meant their avoided a military clash so far.
This latter might change if/when their actually at war but the tone of the EDA actions is very much they wish to keep their distance from the alliance.
I kind of disagree With this, I think Mitterand wants war but the rest of the EDA isn't all that up to it. That doesn't mean they won't feel emboldenent if the Soviets decide to retreat from Sweden (because at this point their situation there is rapidly becoming unholdable) it just means that currently they are hoping for the best but expecting the worst. However I do very disagree With that Britain won't send its army to fight on the German front unless necassery because it Will show that they are properly fighting the Soviets and avenging all the bombing and missile attacks.
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