spanishspy
Fleet admiral
Posts: 10,366 
Likes: 1,586
|
Post by spanishspy on Jan 20, 2018 7:57:42 GMT
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to swap the fates of China and the United States with a PoD no earlier than 1800.
The United States should be a weak power having been subjected to unequal treaties and having to make expensive concessions, whilst China is strong, unified, and an eventual superpower.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,820
Likes: 45,954
|
Post by lordroel on Jan 20, 2018 8:37:55 GMT
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to swap the fates of China and the United States with a PoD no earlier than 1800. The United States should be a weak power having been subjected to unequal treaties and having to make expensive concessions, whilst China is strong, unified, and an eventual superpower. Must China still be a Empire ore a Democracy. |
|
spanishspy
Fleet admiral
Posts: 10,366
Likes: 1,586
|
Post by spanishspy on Jan 20, 2018 10:22:57 GMT
Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to swap the fates of China and the United States with a PoD no earlier than 1800. The United States should be a weak power having been subjected to unequal treaties and having to make expensive concessions, whilst China is strong, unified, and an eventual superpower. Must China still be a Empire ore a Democracy. Preferably democratic but the Emperor as a constitutional monarch is preferred. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,820
Likes: 45,954
|
Post by lordroel on Jan 20, 2018 10:31:08 GMT
Must China still be a Empire ore a Democracy. Preferably democratic but the Emperor as a constitutional monarch is preferred. A failed America Revolution might be one way to make sure America does not become the country we know. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,426
Likes: 12,037
|
Post by stevep on Jan 20, 2018 13:08:16 GMT
Preferably democratic but the Emperor as a constitutional monarch is preferred. A failed America Revolution might be one way to make sure America does not become the country we know. No good. That's prior to the start date of 1800. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,426
Likes: 12,037
|
Post by stevep on Jan 20, 2018 13:47:04 GMT
Guys
I think the most difficult bit is boosting China, if only because we know less about it and also the big cultural differences at the time. Especially since the 2nd post asked for either a democracy or constitutional monarchy. China is approaching super-power status now in OTL but its nowhere near a democratic state nor would we want it to have the murderous history of OTL.
Possibly if TTL's equivalent of the Taiping revolt was lead by someone sane rather than the lunatic who was Hong Xiuquan. Say someone favourable to western ideas and possibly even Protestant Christianity, but not claiming to be Jesus's brother! This would make him a lot more palitable to at least the Protestant European states and if he's willing to support religious tolerance it shouldn't be a great problem with the Catholic nations and less unpleasant to the traditional Budhists and Confusists in China - although the latter are unlikely to accept the probably loss of political power and social status.
Such an organisation could well be more successful and also gain western support. So no "Ever Victorious" army for the Qing and at least trade, probably including weapons, along with possibly volenteers from the west. This could see the Qing overthrown in say the 1850s or 60s.
The big problem with this might be that it would also be preferable if the alternative Taiping are anti-opium, but this would be likely to mean clashes with the trading powers, especially the British as the primary foreign power other than Russia influencing China. Not sure how to get around this but possibly the promise from Hong of opening up other trading oppoertunities for the west coupled with a growing moral campaign against the trade in the west. [Which might be easier if events in the US and elsewhere mean slavery is ended earlier there]. Coupled with say continued arogance from the Qing and then as they falter Russia makes its historical gains in the Amur region, or even possibly takes all of Manchuria. Might have a rump Qing state in the latter as a Russia protectorate. This would give added impluse for Britain and other western powers to drop the Qing and support the Taiping.
This might give the basis for a substantial Chinese recovery in the late 1800s and even early industrialisation starting by 1900. Which would really scare the Russian empire and its Manchurian puppet. Coupled with a collapse of the US this is going to be a substantially different world. Japan might still modernise rapidly, driven by the example of China and also the threat posed by both a more powerful Russia and this great China.
Say China is heavily involved in TTL's WWI, which in this case might see the Russians and Germans as allies. Although on the winning side it suffers heavily and the dynasty is undermined in popularity and forced to allow political reforms and growing human and constitutional rights. During the early 20thC it had periods of instability and at time bitter internal conflict but gradually sees the monarchy replaced or reduced to a constitutional role and western ideas expanding as well as economic power.
If there is a WWII equivalent China might emerge as say a slightly weaker version of OTL US, being underestimated initially by both allies and enemies but being decisive in defeating say a pseudo Nazi Russia. Its one of the original great powers in the new UN by right, rather than political convience. In fact with the US largely removed it would be difficult to see any state rivaling it, other than possibly a federated British empire, a [largely unified] west/central Europe or just possibly a Russia that recovers from such a defeat.
Anyway, someone who knows the political situation better in late Qing China could possibly offer a better option. Say the attempts at reform in the 1980's aren't suppressed by the Dowager Empress and lead to reform or China avoids the warlord period of the 1920s and 30s? However initial thoughts on the issue.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,426
Likes: 12,037
|
Post by stevep on Jan 20, 2018 14:38:51 GMT
Guys Part 2, the dismantling of the US. There are plenty of options here. a) You could have internal conflict early on leading to both political break-up of the early US. For instance Aaron Burr's plans possibly lead to the western states breaking away and further division and stress as attempts by the eastern states to prevent this cause political division and economic strain. Also in the aftermath and with continued tension between the successor states of the US at least some tend towards high degrees of militarisation, with resulting economic and cultural costs and also autocratic dictatorships. This means, if early enough, no Louisana purchase and quite possibly the 'old NW' region ends up in Canadian hands. Multiple successor states divide up the rest of the region and it becomes something of a northern version of Latin America, with unstable and corrupt juntas. Possibly with a more stable Mexico keeping most of Tejas and areas to the west and Louisana either being split between them and Canada or emerging as a separate state. b) Clashes with Britain. I mention it 1st because Britain is the power most likely, especially after Napoleon's defeat, to be in a position to defeat the US heavily enough. Unfortunately my initial thought, of the Kingdom of Canada I mentioned in another thread, see the simple-simon thread, wouldn't apply as its POD is in 1781. That not only has a much more powerful Canada but the kingdom of Georgia which includes S Carolina, Georgia Alabama, Florida and Mississippi, a Mexico that regains Texas and neighbouring areas and an independent New England Confederation. The rump US is very much a redneck and xenophobic state which lost its black population after its defeat in the 1842-47 war and became increasingly militaristic and hostile to foreign immigrants, most of which went to Canada and Georgia. Other options for a fatal clash with Britain could start with a heavy defeat in a longer 1812 conflict, possibly followed by other clashes and internal disputes. Alternatively a Trent Incident Crisis that leads to a bloody war and the loss of most US territory. I n both of those cases the rump US nations(s) go downhill domestically with a lot of internal repression and autocratic government, coupled with rabid racism and conflict in the CSA if using the Trent option.
I have another old TL which has PODs in 1914/15 leading to a shorter WWI and then growing tension between an Anglo-Japanese alliance and a US that slips into basically a fascist type state. This brews over into war in 1929 and last for 5 years with widespread use of gas meaning that casualties are very heavy, especially in the US. This could be considered rather wankist for the British empire however.
c) Clash with France over Louisana. THis requires that the 1802 Treaty of Amiens holds and say that Napoleon doesn't send the force to Haiti. The French start selling Lousiana in some numbers, including establishing colonies if veterans with land grants and don't sell it to the US. At a later stage, possibly triggered by actions by US settlers on the border or local militias in those regions war starts over either US intrusions into Louisana or possibly into Florida, owned by Spain and still a French ally.
The resultant conflict is very bad for the US with large naval fleets blockaging its coastline and possibly landing armies at points to devastate US ports, especially once the US doesn't quickly come to terms. You get a long and bitter war that serious degrades American resources and also means their greatly militarised. Possibly Napoleon actually thinks of annexing most/all of the US which prolongs the conflict with large scale guerilla actions and possibly British intervention/threat of to end the conflict.
The US ends up greatly improvished and with no hope of western expansion as well as feeling threatened. Possibly using US distraction Britain secures the old NW region which further constrains the US. This could also be as part of or a cause of a conflict with Britain which sees it make some further gains, but most noticeably sees a New England break-away. [Alternatively the French might support the Indians and end up with the NW region.] You end up with a poorer and militarised US feeling paranoid and mistrustful of both neighbours and new migrants. With no Gulf access - possibly France ends up buying Florida from Spain -, the Mississippi under French control and very limited US access to the Great Lakes their western territories - which only reach as far as the Mississippi have poor access to the rest of the world so their economic development is greatly hampered.
Also this nation will be dominated by slave states and it will probably be the largest economic influence in the nation. Which could further delay its economic development and possibly see a war of succession with a group of northern states seeking to and possibly suceeding to gain their independence. Especially since presuming that opinion in western Europe would be moving against slavery their likely to get help.
This would leave a relatively [by American standards] small region that has prospects for industrial development and another larger one that continues to be racked by internal dissent, a powerful aristocratic elite and slave rebellions. How things go from here as very probably there will be either internal change or intervention to end the increasingly brutal suppression of slaves. Which could end up with another partition with the freed blacks being given their own territory and further reducing the power and resources of the rump US.
d) Clashes with Germany. - This is the other obvious option although somewhat more difficult to get the necessary result unless you have a far better led Nazi Germany eventually winning WWII. An alternative option might be an Anglo-German alliance. I remember a few years back one of the people on AH looking at this with 2-3 thread including a dark one where they are autocratic and expansionist and a light one where they are more progressive and liberal. Either of those options could lead to a big war with the US and the latter being defeated. How well it would fit the scenario as the US would already be established at pretty much the full OTL size so degrading it to the levels suggested by the OP would seem unlikely. Most successful in this would be the Nazi victory scenario ending with something not too far from the Man in the High Castle/Fatherland type world. That would have a heavily crushed US probably split into small fragments and with the virtual certainty of autocratic regimes in place.
There are probably some other options but those would seem to be the more likely paths to me.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,820
Likes: 45,954
|
Post by lordroel on Jan 20, 2018 14:59:01 GMT
A failed America Revolution might be one way to make sure America does not become the country we know. No good. That's prior to the start date of 1800. Sorry. |
|
