lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 20:37:16 GMT
I think it results in a very bloody Venezuelan Civil War. Them there is the scenario. In an effort to distract the People from the collapsing economy, Maduros invades the N. Antilles, hoping for Russian support in his war. Unfortantly for him, Putin can see the writing on the wall and only sends some "volunteers". In Europe, Merkel and Macron use this opportunity to promote the EU and thus support the Netherlands in their defensive war. So instead of the small fleet Maduros expected would be send as a relieve force, it is instead a big fleet that includes a (maybe two if Spain also extend their support) Aircraft carriers. The Venezualan Navy is either swept from the sea or cowers in their harbours, allowing the EU to liberate the islands at their leisure. Afterwards they might bomb Caracas for good meaure. With the war a miserable failure, Maduros' regime collapses. Cue civil war. The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is in a 18-month refit and upgrade thus not available until at least end of 2018.
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 20:45:53 GMT
Them there is the scenario. In an effort to distract the People from the collapsing economy, Maduros invades the N. Antilles, hoping for Russian support in his war. Unfortantly for him, Putin can see the writing on the wall and only sends some "volunteers". In Europe, Merkel and Macron use this opportunity to promote the EU and thus support the Netherlands in their defensive war. So instead of the small fleet Maduros expected would be send as a relieve force, it is instead a big fleet that includes a (maybe two if Spain also extend their support) Aircraft carriers. The Venezualan Navy is either swept from the sea or cowers in their harbours, allowing the EU to liberate the islands at their leisure. Afterwards they might bomb Caracas for good meaure. With the war a miserable failure, Maduros' regime collapses. Cue civil war. The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is in a 18-month refit and upgrade thus not available until at least end of 2018. Italy and Spain both have Aircraft carriers that can be used if they can be convinced to join the war. But even then, the EU fleet would be able to keep the VEAF away from the front simply by spamming AA missiles.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 21:09:51 GMT
The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is in a 18-month refit and upgrade thus not available until at least end of 2018. Italy and Spain both have Aircraft carriers that can be used if they can be convinced to join the war. But even then, the EU fleet would be able to keep the VEAF away from the front simply by spamming AA missiles. Something i found on the net, updated somewhat to the 2017 status of our armed forces (might not be correct) If the Venezuela Maduro regime made a grab for the Netherlands West Indies (specifically the islands of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire), can the Netherlands really do anything about it? The Netherlands military is no slouch, having performed peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and Africa and has served alongside the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, these have been relatively small contingents of land forces as opposed to a major naval-air campaign, which reclaiming those Caribbean islands would entail (see the British effort to reclaim the Falklands in 1982). The Royal Netherlands Navy is small, but has very good ships. This force carries a lengthy tradition going back centuries, a tradition that includes beating the British at sea many times. Their four De Zeven Provincien-class frigates are good ships armed with SM-2MR and Evolved Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The two Karel Doorman-class frigates are also very good vessels as well, armed with Sea Sparrows and Harpoons. The Royal Netherlands Navy completes its surface force with four Holland-class offshore patrol vessels. There are also two landing platform dock amphibious vessel, (HNLMS Rotterdam and HNLMS Johan Van Witt) and one Joint (logistic) Support Ship HNLMS Karel Doorman. The Royal Netherlands Air Force is also potent, but primarily designed for a war in Europe. It consists of 61 F-16As with a mid-life upgrade, making them very capable against aerial opponents. This is the bulk of their combat power. They have 28 AH-64D Longbow Apaches and two KDC-10F aerial refueling aircraft (comparable to the KC-10) for their entire force. This is a force that has a lot of teeth, but very little tail. In the event that Venezuela should seize Aruba, Curacao, and/or Bonaire, Chavez will have a lot of places in Venezuela for his Air Force to reach the Dutch islands. The nearest Dutch territory is St. Marteen, which is anywhere from 844 (to Bonaire) to 965 (to Aruba) kilometers from the combat zone. The F-16's range is 2642 kilometers, but that figure is misleading. Combat eats up fuel very rapidly (often due to the use of afterburners), and as a result, the potential combat zone, even with aerial refueling, is at the edge of the F-16's combat radius (usually a third of the aircraft's range - in this case, 880 kilometers). Drop tanks could extend the range, but that means giving up some payload. This is a situation much like what the Luftwaffe faced in 1940 in the Battle of Britain, only this time, it would be an inability to provide sustained air cover for naval vessels as opposed to the inability to properly escort strike aircraft. As Admiral Sir Thomas Phillips, commander of Force Z (HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse), found out in 1941, a naval force sailing under hostile skies has an exciting and short life. The present Netherlands deployment is made up of the: 32 Infantry Company of the Marine Corps. 1 infantry company of the Army. Aruban Militia (Dutch: Arubaanse Militie, ARUMIL): consist of one platoon. Curaçao Militia (Dutch: Curaçao Militie, CURMIL): consist of one platoon. 1 station ship belonging to the Royal Netherlands Navy. 1 support ship belonging to the Royal Netherlands Navy. Volunteer Corps Curaçao (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao, VKC): is a force consisting of 80 volunteers. Even if the Dutch forces were reinforced to include a battalion on each island, and a full squadron of F-16s, they are outnumbered by a potential invasion force. Venezuela has four battalions in their marine corps, plus an airborne regiment and a paratroop regiment. The F-16s would faced by the Venezuelan Air Force, which has 16 F-16As, and 23 Su-30s. The Venezuelan Navy, with 3 Lupo-class frigates, 4 Guaiquerí-class patrol boats and two Type 209 submarines, could also create problems for any Dutch effort to recapture the islands. The Dutch submarine force of four Walrus-class diesel-electric submarines could, in theory, try to interdict Venezuelan oil exports, but they are subject to limitations. The primary limitation is their diesel-electric powerplant, which provides a top speed of 39 kilometers per hour. These subs have a range of 18,520 kilometers, but that is at a speed of 16.7 kilometers per hour. In theory, the range is sufficient, since the distance from Rotterdam to Aruba is 7,860 kilometers. Thus while a Walrus-class sub could hang off Venezuela's major oil export centers, it would soon have to leave its station to return to base and refuel. Any blockade of Venezuela's ports would be more about making Lloyd's of London skittish enough to pull coverage from any ship entering or leaving the ports. Actual damage would be a lot less than imagined due to the strain of operating diesel-electric submarines across the Atlantic, and the very limited time on station, particularly after a speed run. Again, the major question could be whether St. Marteen would be a place where the Dutch could refuel and re-arm submarines. The Dutch problem can best be described with the words, "not enough". Not enough forces to successfully repel an invasion of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire; not enough naval power to carry out operations to retake the islands; their fighters do not have enough range; and not enough logistical support to support an operation. They certainly lack the ability to retake the islands on their own should the Maduro regime decide to create a "Greater Venezuela", assistance from NATO allies, especially the United States and Britain, would give the Dutch an edge, and a clear shot at regaining their Caribbean islands.
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 21:29:13 GMT
Italy and Spain both have Aircraft carriers that can be used if they can be convinced to join the war. But even then, the EU fleet would be able to keep the VEAF away from the front simply by spamming AA missiles. Something i found on the net, updated somewhat to the 2017 status of our armed forces (might not be correct) If the Venezuela Maduro regime made a grab for the Netherlands West Indies (specifically the islands of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire), can the Netherlands really do anything about it? The Netherlands military is no slouch, having performed peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and Africa and has served alongside the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, these have been relatively small contingents of land forces as opposed to a major naval-air campaign, which reclaiming those Caribbean islands would entail (see the British effort to reclaim the Falklands in 1982). The Royal Netherlands Navy is small, but has very good ships. This force carries a lengthy tradition going back centuries, a tradition that includes beating the British at sea many times. Their four De Zeven Provincien-class frigates are good ships armed with SM-2MR and Evolved Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The two Karel Doorman-class frigates are also very good vessels as well, armed with Sea Sparrows and Harpoons. The Royal Netherlands Navy completes its surface force with four Holland-class offshore patrol vessels. There are also two landing platform dock amphibious vessel, (HNLMS Rotterdam and HNLMS Johan Van Witt) and one Joint (logistic) Support Ship HNLMS Karel Doorman. The Royal Netherlands Air Force is also potent, but primarily designed for a war in Europe. It consists of 61 F-16As with a mid-life upgrade, making them very capable against aerial opponents. This is the bulk of their combat power. They have 28 AH-64D Longbow Apaches and two KDC-10F aerial refueling aircraft (comparable to the KC-10) for their entire force. This is a force that has a lot of teeth, but very little tail. In the event that Venezuela should seize Aruba, Curacao, and/or Bonaire, Chavez will have a lot of places in Venezuela for his Air Force to reach the Dutch islands. The nearest Dutch territory is St. Marteen, which is anywhere from 844 (to Bonaire) to 965 (to Aruba) kilometers from the combat zone. The F-16's range is 2642 kilometers, but that figure is misleading. Combat eats up fuel very rapidly (often due to the use of afterburners), and as a result, the potential combat zone, even with aerial refueling, is at the edge of the F-16's combat radius (usually a third of the aircraft's range - in this case, 880 kilometers). Drop tanks could extend the range, but that means giving up some payload. This is a situation much like what the Luftwaffe faced in 1940 in the Battle of Britain, only this time, it would be an inability to provide sustained air cover for naval vessels as opposed to the inability to properly escort strike aircraft. As Admiral Sir Thomas Phillips, commander of Force Z (HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse), found out in 1941, a naval force sailing under hostile skies has an exciting and short life. The present Netherlands deployment is made up of the: 32 Infantry Company of the Marine Corps. 1 infantry company of the Army. Aruban Militia (Dutch: Arubaanse Militie, ARUMIL): consist of one platoon. Curaçao Militia (Dutch: Curaçao Militie, CURMIL): consist of one platoon. 1 station ship belonging to the Royal Netherlands Navy. 1 support ship belonging to the Royal Netherlands Navy. Volunteer Corps Curaçao (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao, VKC) : is a force consisting of 80 volunteers. Even if the Dutch forces were reinforced to include a battalion on each island, and a full squadron of F-16s, they are outnumbered by a potential invasion force. Venezuela has four battalions in their marine corps, plus an airborne regiment and a paratroop regiment. The F-16s would faced by the Venezuelan Air Force, which has 16 F-16As, and 23 Su-30s. The Venezuelan Navy, with 3 Lupo-class frigates, 4 Guaiquerí-class patrol boats and two Type 209 submarines, could also create problems for any Dutch effort to recapture the islands. The Dutch submarine force of four Walrus-class diesel-electric submarines could, in theory, try to interdict Venezuelan oil exports, but they are subject to limitations. The primary limitation is their diesel-electric powerplant, which provides a top speed of 39 kilometers per hour. These subs have a range of 18,520 kilometers, but that is at a speed of 16.7 kilometers per hour. In theory, the range is sufficient, since the distance from Rotterdam to Aruba is 7,860 kilometers. Thus while a Walrus-class sub could hang off Venezuela's major oil export centers, it would soon have to leave its station to return to base and refuel. Any blockade of Venezuela's ports would be more about making Lloyd's of London skittish enough to pull coverage from any ship entering or leaving the ports. Actual damage would be a lot less than imagined due to the strain of operating diesel-electric submarines across the Atlantic, and the very limited time on station, particularly after a speed run. Again, the major question could be whether St. Marteen would be a place where the Dutch could refuel and re-arm submarines. The Dutch problem can best be described with the words, "not enough". Not enough forces to successfully repel an invasion of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire; not enough naval power to carry out operations to retake the islands; their fighters do not have enough range; and not enough logistical support to support an operation. They certainly lack the ability to retake the islands on their own should the Maduro regime decide to create a "Greater Venezuela", assistance from NATO allies, especially the United States and Britain, would give the Dutch an edge, and a clear shot at regaining their Caribbean islands. Then it is good The Netherlands has allies willing to back them.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 21:34:19 GMT
Something i found on the net, updated somewhat to the 2017 status of our armed forces (might not be correct) If the Venezuela Maduro regime made a grab for the Netherlands West Indies (specifically the islands of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire), can the Netherlands really do anything about it? The Netherlands military is no slouch, having performed peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and Africa and has served alongside the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, these have been relatively small contingents of land forces as opposed to a major naval-air campaign, which reclaiming those Caribbean islands would entail (see the British effort to reclaim the Falklands in 1982). The Royal Netherlands Navy is small, but has very good ships. This force carries a lengthy tradition going back centuries, a tradition that includes beating the British at sea many times. Their four De Zeven Provincien-class frigates are good ships armed with SM-2MR and Evolved Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The two Karel Doorman-class frigates are also very good vessels as well, armed with Sea Sparrows and Harpoons. The Royal Netherlands Navy completes its surface force with four Holland-class offshore patrol vessels. There are also two landing platform dock amphibious vessel, (HNLMS Rotterdam and HNLMS Johan Van Witt) and one Joint (logistic) Support Ship HNLMS Karel Doorman. The Royal Netherlands Air Force is also potent, but primarily designed for a war in Europe. It consists of 61 F-16As with a mid-life upgrade, making them very capable against aerial opponents. This is the bulk of their combat power. They have 28 AH-64D Longbow Apaches and two KDC-10F aerial refueling aircraft (comparable to the KC-10) for their entire force. This is a force that has a lot of teeth, but very little tail. In the event that Venezuela should seize Aruba, Curacao, and/or Bonaire, Chavez will have a lot of places in Venezuela for his Air Force to reach the Dutch islands. The nearest Dutch territory is St. Marteen, which is anywhere from 844 (to Bonaire) to 965 (to Aruba) kilometers from the combat zone. The F-16's range is 2642 kilometers, but that figure is misleading. Combat eats up fuel very rapidly (often due to the use of afterburners), and as a result, the potential combat zone, even with aerial refueling, is at the edge of the F-16's combat radius (usually a third of the aircraft's range - in this case, 880 kilometers). Drop tanks could extend the range, but that means giving up some payload. This is a situation much like what the Luftwaffe faced in 1940 in the Battle of Britain, only this time, it would be an inability to provide sustained air cover for naval vessels as opposed to the inability to properly escort strike aircraft. As Admiral Sir Thomas Phillips, commander of Force Z (HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse), found out in 1941, a naval force sailing under hostile skies has an exciting and short life. The present Netherlands deployment is made up of the: 32 Infantry Company of the Marine Corps. 1 infantry company of the Army. Aruban Militia (Dutch: Arubaanse Militie, ARUMIL): consist of one platoon. Curaçao Militia (Dutch: Curaçao Militie, CURMIL): consist of one platoon. 1 station ship belonging to the Royal Netherlands Navy. 1 support ship belonging to the Royal Netherlands Navy. Volunteer Corps Curaçao (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao, VKC) : is a force consisting of 80 volunteers. Even if the Dutch forces were reinforced to include a battalion on each island, and a full squadron of F-16s, they are outnumbered by a potential invasion force. Venezuela has four battalions in their marine corps, plus an airborne regiment and a paratroop regiment. The F-16s would faced by the Venezuelan Air Force, which has 16 F-16As, and 23 Su-30s. The Venezuelan Navy, with 3 Lupo-class frigates, 4 Guaiquerí-class patrol boats and two Type 209 submarines, could also create problems for any Dutch effort to recapture the islands. The Dutch submarine force of four Walrus-class diesel-electric submarines could, in theory, try to interdict Venezuelan oil exports, but they are subject to limitations. The primary limitation is their diesel-electric powerplant, which provides a top speed of 39 kilometers per hour. These subs have a range of 18,520 kilometers, but that is at a speed of 16.7 kilometers per hour. In theory, the range is sufficient, since the distance from Rotterdam to Aruba is 7,860 kilometers. Thus while a Walrus-class sub could hang off Venezuela's major oil export centers, it would soon have to leave its station to return to base and refuel. Any blockade of Venezuela's ports would be more about making Lloyd's of London skittish enough to pull coverage from any ship entering or leaving the ports. Actual damage would be a lot less than imagined due to the strain of operating diesel-electric submarines across the Atlantic, and the very limited time on station, particularly after a speed run. Again, the major question could be whether St. Marteen would be a place where the Dutch could refuel and re-arm submarines. The Dutch problem can best be described with the words, "not enough". Not enough forces to successfully repel an invasion of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire; not enough naval power to carry out operations to retake the islands; their fighters do not have enough range; and not enough logistical support to support an operation. They certainly lack the ability to retake the islands on their own should the Maduro regime decide to create a "Greater Venezuela", assistance from NATO allies, especially the United States and Britain, would give the Dutch an edge, and a clear shot at regaining their Caribbean islands. Then it is good The Netherlands has allies willing to back them. Well if we have a warning and we can send a squadron of F-16 to be based out of Hato International Airport (Curaçao) backed by NASAMS II Surface-to-air missile systems and the bigger MIM-104 Patriot long range surface-to-air missile system in time together with two battalions of the army and marines and supported by the Royal Netherlands Navy we can win the 2nd Netherlands-Venezuela War, but it also depends on the attitude of the Netherlands govement.
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 21:38:51 GMT
Then it is good The Netherlands has allies willing to back them. Well if we have a warning and we can send a squadron of F-16 to be based out of Hato International Airport (Curaçao) backed by NASAMS II Surface-to-air missile systems and the bigger MIM-104 Patriot long range surface-to-air missile system in time together with two battalions of the army and marines and supported by the Royal Netherlands Navy we can win the 2nd Netherlands-Venezuela War, but it also depends on the attitude of the Netherlands govement. Rutte did gain an image of the Netherlands strong man during the election and Wilders may be a bigot but he is a patriot. I don't think either of them Will back Down when confronted With Marduro's saber-rattling.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 21:42:27 GMT
Well if we have a warning and we can send a squadron of F-16 to be based out of Hato International Airport (Curaçao) backed by NASAMS II Surface-to-air missile systems and the bigger MIM-104 Patriot long range surface-to-air missile system in time together with two battalions of the army and marines and supported by the Royal Netherlands Navy we can win the 2nd Netherlands-Venezuela War, but it also depends on the attitude of the Netherlands govement. Rutte did gain an image of the Netherlands strong man during the election and Wilders may be a bigot but he is a patriot. I don't think either of them Will back Down when confronted With Marduro's saber-rattling. And with a president in the White House who is eager to show how strong leader he can be, i can only say that the Netherlands will get the backing of the United States, fully ore only logistic.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2017 23:13:55 GMT
Rutte did gain an image of the Netherlands strong man during the election and Wilders may be a bigot but he is a patriot. I don't think either of them Will back Down when confronted With Marduro's saber-rattling. And with a president in the White House who is eager to show how strong leader he can be, i can only say that the Netherlands will get the backing of the United States, fully ore only logistic. That was my big issue with the idea. I very much doubt that the US, especially under Trump, would sit back and allow Venezeula to attack a neighbour like this. As well as wanting stability in their own back yard there are other issues like the existing hostilities between the two governments and the fact that apart from fancing a simple solution Trump might think stepping in would distract from his internal problems and show him as a strong President. I would think that the Marduro government would have to be pretty damned desperate to risk something like that. Suspect it would be more likely that internal conflicts break out, quite possibly with the government claiming the rebellion was organised and supported by the US. [Which might be accurate or not. ]
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 12, 2017 17:02:37 GMT
Suspect it would be more likely that internal conflicts break out, quite possibly with the government claiming the rebellion was organised and supported by the US. [Which might be accurate or not. ] So far i know the Maduro regime is already clamming that the United states want to dispose a democratic elected government, so nothing new will happen if a civil war breaks out in Venezuela.
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Jun 16, 2017 5:45:06 GMT
OK, guys, here's a basic sketch of the Venezuelan Civil War TL as I currently have it in my head. Cue dramatic montage...
--Maduro declares martial law in Caracas.
--Opposition groups march on Miraflores Palace(the Venezuelan president's official headquarters) and are attacked by government security forces.
--Maduro expands martial law to the rest of Venezuela.
--The UN, the OAS, and a number of other international organizations blast the martial law decree.
--Maduro accuses the U. S. of inciting the Miraflores Palace protests.
--The Guardian prints an eyewitness account of the Miraflores incident that explicitly contradicts the Maduro government's official narrative claiming the riots were provoked by the United States.
--A mutiny erupts at one of Venezuela's top military academies.
--In an attempt to rally support for his embattled regime, Maduro sends a military contingent to seize the islands of Curacao and Bonaire.
--The Netherlands, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy deploy a joint task force of their own under Article 42 of the EU Treaty to defend Curacao and Bonaire.
--President Trump meets with Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S. and demands Maduro recall his invasion force immediately.
--The Curacao-Bonaire invasion force encounters the EU's task force off Bonaire's east coast; shots are fired and the invasion force sustains heavy casualties.
--Anti-war rallies are held throughout Venezuela.
--The Maduro regime orders the Venezuelan National Guard to break up the anti-war protests; many of the guardsmen, however, choose instead to side with the protesters and a tense standoff ensues in much of Venezuela.
--Russia offers to mediate talks between the Maduro government and the opposition forces to end the standoff.
--A confrontation between pro-Maduro and anti-Maduro factions of the Venezuelan army escalates into a full-fledged firefight; within days of the skirmish civil war is raging throughout all of Venezuela.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 16, 2017 7:05:25 GMT
OK, guys, here's a basic sketch of the Venezuelan Civil War TL as I currently have it in my head. Cue dramatic montage... --Maduro declares martial law in Caracas. --Opposition groups march on Miraflores Palace(the Venezuelan president's official headquarters) and are attacked by government security forces. --Maduro expands martial law to the rest of Venezuela. --The UN, the OAS, and a number of other international organizations blast the martial law decree. --Maduro accuses the U. S. of inciting the Miraflores Palace protests. --The Guardian prints an eyewitness account of the Miraflores incident that explicitly contradicts the Maduro government's official narrative claiming the riots were provoked by the United States. --A mutiny erupts at one of Venezuela's top military academies. --In an attempt to rally support for his embattled regime, Maduro sends a military contingent to seize the islands of Curacao and Bonaire. --The Netherlands, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy deploy a joint task force of their own under Article 42 of the EU Treaty to defend Curacao and Bonaire. --President Trump meets with Venezuela's ambassador to the U.S. and demands Maduro recall his invasion force immediately. --The Curacao-Bonaire invasion force encounters the EU's task force off Bonaire's east coast; shots are fired and the invasion force sustains heavy casualties. --Anti-war rallies are held throughout Venezuela. --The Maduro regime orders the Venezuelan National Guard to break up the anti-war protests; many of the guardsmen, however, choose instead to side with the protesters and a tense standoff ensues in much of Venezuela. --Russia offers to mediate talks between the Maduro government and the opposition forces to end the standoff. --A confrontation between pro-Maduro and anti-Maduro factions of the Venezuelan army escalates into a full-fledged firefight; within days of the skirmish civil war is raging throughout all of Venezuela. That sound good.
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Jun 17, 2017 16:39:18 GMT
Thank you. If all goes well, I'm hoping to have the first installment of the new timeline posted later today. I'll also be creating a separate thread for reader feedback.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 17, 2017 17:46:06 GMT
Thank you. If all goes well, I'm hoping to have the first installment of the new timeline posted later today. I'll also be creating a separate thread for reader feedback. That is a good idea, a thread for the timeline and one for comments, remember that you as a creator can open and close a thread so that people can not pose in timeline only thread.
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