pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Jun 10, 2017 14:58:08 GMT
(Inspired by a recent PBS News Hour report)
As you may have noticed, some folks in Venezuela have a bit of a problem with the way Nicholas Maduro's running things over there. I'm thinking of creating a near-future timeline in which the tensions between Maduro supporters and critics escalate into full-fledged civil war and I'd appreciate it if one or more of you could assist me in mapping out a plausible scenario for the outbreak of an anti-Maduro insurgency.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 15:01:45 GMT
(Inspired by a recent PBS News Hour report) As you may have noticed, some folks in Venezuela have a bit of a problem with the way Nicholas Maduro's running things over there. I'm thinking of creating a near-future timeline in which the tensions between Maduro supporters and critics escalate into full-fledged civil war and I'd appreciate it if one or more of you could assist me in mapping out a plausible scenario for the outbreak of an anti-Maduro insurgency. I always wonder what would happen if Maduro regime decide to attack and invaded the Netherlands Antilles, believing doing so he can unite the people of his country and keep them distracted. |
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Jun 10, 2017 15:07:16 GMT
Wow. I forgot about the Netherlands Antilles situation. That's definitely a good starting point.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 15:11:28 GMT
Wow. I forgot about the Netherlands Antilles situation. That's definitely a good starting point. This could start as the boiling point for you Civil War. |
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Jun 10, 2017 15:21:47 GMT
Yeah, it could.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 15:27:38 GMT
The question is, will the Netherlands be alerted on time is i could think that moving and preparing units for use of a invasion can be discovered either by the Netherlands, a friendly anti-Maduro regime Venezuela navy officer ore the United States tips the Netherlands of. |
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pats2001
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Post by pats2001 on Jun 10, 2017 15:38:07 GMT
Or maybe somebody pulls a WikiLeaks and divulges the invasion plans online.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 16:06:57 GMT
Or maybe somebody pulls a WikiLeaks and divulges the invasion plans online. Wich the Maduro regime will label as Netherlands propaganda and wich has the result that relations between the two countroes will enter a low point. |
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 18:50:56 GMT
(Inspired by a recent PBS News Hour report) As you may have noticed, some folks in Venezuela have a bit of a problem with the way Nicholas Maduro's running things over there. I'm thinking of creating a near-future timeline in which the tensions between Maduro supporters and critics escalate into full-fledged civil war and I'd appreciate it if one or more of you could assist me in mapping out a plausible scenario for the outbreak of an anti-Maduro insurgency. I always wonder what would happen if Maduro regime decide to attack and invaded the Netherlands Antilles, believing doing so he can unite the people of his country and keep them distracted. The EU Mutual Defence Clause would go into effect and any Venezualan invasion would be steamrolled by a relief force. Though considering the Whole hyper-inflation issue they are currently having one Wonders if they would even be able support a war for very longer before going broke. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 19:09:42 GMT
I always wonder what would happen if Maduro regime decide to attack and invaded the Netherlands Antilles, believing doing so he can unite the people of his country and keep them distracted. The EU Mutual Defence Clause would go into effect and any Venezualan invasion would be steamrolled by a relief force. Though considering the Whole hyper-inflation issue they are currently having one Wonders if they would even be able support a war for very longer before going broke. Does it apply to the Netherlands Antilles as far as i can read it only applies if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, does this also apply to any of the EU colonies as Article 5 of NATO does not. |
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 19:26:37 GMT
The EU Mutual Defence Clause would go into effect and any Venezualan invasion would be steamrolled by a relief force. Though considering the Whole hyper-inflation issue they are currently having one Wonders if they would even be able support a war for very longer before going broke. Does it apply to the Netherlands Antilles as far as i can read it only applies if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, does this also apply to any of the EU colonies as Article 5 of NATO does not. The N. Antilles are legally counties of the Netherland are they not? And while I don't know the details of the various defence threaties we part of, I am fairly certain that Germany and France are going to support us in a defensive war. If you are cynical, you can claim that they are using this war to push forth their joint EU military plans. And even if none of the Netherlands' allies are backing us, it is still not exactly an even fight. The Venezulean Navy counts one submarine, three frigates and four corvettes, of which only the corvettes are modern. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 19:34:10 GMT
Does it apply to the Netherlands Antilles as far as i can read it only applies if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, does this also apply to any of the EU colonies as Article 5 of NATO does not. The N. Antilles are legally counties of the Netherland are they not? And while I don't know the details of the various defence threaties we part of, I am fairly certain that Germany and France are going to support us in a defensive war. If you are cynical, you can claim that they are using this war to push forth their joint EU military plans. And even if none of the Netherlands' allies are backing us, it is still not exactly an even fight. The Venezulean Navy counts one submarine, three frigates and four corvettes, of which only the corvettes are modern. France i can tell will join as they have interest in the region as well, Germany has no interest in the region. The Venezulean Navy counts two submarines (S-31 Sábalo and S-32 Caribe), also you must not forget the 2 Capana-class LST and 3 Los Frailes-class LST who can be used to drop more than 11,000 strong Venezuelan Marine Corps, of course not at once but they can if they have naval superiority air superiority drop a lot of troops on the island that will make it hard for the Netherlands and its allies to retake them. Also i do not think Russia will be happy if there is going to be a war that might see its ally defeated. |
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 20:09:39 GMT
The N. Antilles are legally counties of the Netherland are they not? And while I don't know the details of the various defence threaties we part of, I am fairly certain that Germany and France are going to support us in a defensive war. If you are cynical, you can claim that they are using this war to push forth their joint EU military plans. And even if none of the Netherlands' allies are backing us, it is still not exactly an even fight. The Venezulean Navy counts one submarine, three frigates and four corvettes, of which only the corvettes are modern. France i can tell will join as they have interest in the region as well, Germany has no interest in the region. The Venezulean Navy counts two submarines (S-31 Sábalo and S-32 Caribe), also you must not forget the 2 Capana-class LST and 3 Los Frailes-class LST who can be used to drop more than 11,000 strong Venezuelan Marine Corps, of course not at once but they can if they have naval superiority air superiority drop a lot of troops on the island that will make it hard for the Netherlands and its allies to retake them. Also i do not think Russia will be happy if there is going to be a war that might see its ally defeated. Merkel Will have an interest in that the EU appears strong and united so she might back The Hague too, even if it is not as entuastic as France might be. And remember that putting Venezuala in its place would help stabilize the region where the Guyana Space Port is located. That advantage Will only last as long as their naval and air superiority lasts, after that they Will be isolated an cut off from supply lines the Dutch can just liberate the islands one after the other. Numbers are not everything in war anymore. Possibly, but it is questionable just how long Maduros regime is going to last even if they somehow manage to win this war. But if Maduros were to lose the war and in a worse case scenario cause a civil war then the West and Mercosur would have to intervene and would thus be distracted from potential Russian adventures. As a bonus, more countries are not going to turn hostile against him. So besides sending "volunteers", Putin does not really have a reason to support an ally that is not going to last long anyway. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2017 20:16:56 GMT
Possibly, but it is questionable just how long Maduros regime is going to last even if they somehow manage to win this war. But if Maduros were to lose the war and in a worse case scenario cause a civil war then the West and Mercosur would have to intervene and would thus be distracted from potential Russian adventures. As a bonus, more countries are not going to turn hostile against him. So besides sending "volunteers", Putin does not really have a reason to support an ally that is not going to last long anyway. I think it results in a very bloody Venezuelan Civil War. |
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Post by eurowatch on Jun 10, 2017 20:33:36 GMT
Possibly, but it is questionable just how long Maduros regime is going to last even if they somehow manage to win this war. But if Maduros were to lose the war and in a worse case scenario cause a civil war then the West and Mercosur would have to intervene and would thus be distracted from potential Russian adventures. As a bonus, more countries are not going to turn hostile against him. So besides sending "volunteers", Putin does not really have a reason to support an ally that is not going to last long anyway. I think it results in a very bloody Venezuelan Civil War. Them there is the scenario. In an effort to distract the People from the collapsing economy, Maduros invades the N. Antilles, hoping for Russian support in his war. Unfortantly for him, Putin can see the writing on the wall and only sends some "volunteers". In Europe, Merkel and Macron use this opportunity to promote the EU and thus support the Netherlands in their defensive war. So instead of the small fleet Maduros expected would be send as a relieve force, it is instead a big fleet that includes a (maybe two if Spain also extend their support) Aircraft carriers. The Venezualan Navy is either swept from the sea or cowers in their harbours, allowing the EU to liberate the islands at their leisure. Afterwards they might bomb Caracas for good meaure. With the war a miserable failure, Maduros' regime collapses. Cue civil war. |
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