staying put

  I would suspect not, unless things go really bad for the US.  Since the Japanese are likely to gain their primary territorial aims before the US can do anything to block them and the USN has more ships available I doubt the Japanese would go anywhere near Midway, let alone Hawaii. 

  Undoubtedly Japan will lose if there is a long war with the US.  However with the US being the 'aggressor' in this case how strong will public support for the war be?  Especially if the US suffers a serious military defeat early on, due to what's seen as an error by either political or high level military leaders.

I thought the war was not against the US, Japanese only attack British and Dutch.

But what about the United States embargo against Japan, that is going to hurt Japan, also Japan in OTL knew that expansion into the Netherlands East Indies would mean that Malaya and the Philippines had to have been cleared in order for the Japanese to secure the area. This meant inevitable United States intervention.

The war in Europe will still going to be won by the Soviets and British, it will be harder but that will not change, except that mainland Europe i will think will be a little more communist that OTL, and because the Germans never had that much of a surface fleet the British will send more of their big guns to the Pacific to fight the Japanese.

I still think that the United States will join the war in the Pacific even if their fleet is based out of San Diego, i found a good responds on Redit about it.

The U.S. was sending arms to the Chinese the Japanese were fighting since 1937. Roosevelt had ordered military build ups in the Pacific and the Philippines and had told the Japanese they would take steps against them if the Japanese invaded those areas. The U.S. was embargoing trade specifically oil and had frozen Japanese assets.

A Gallup poll just before the attack on Pearl Harbor found that 52% of Americans expected war with Japan, 27% did not, and 21% had no opinion

The U.S. thought it was going to war eventually. This would have been the immediate cause.

Then Japan had military coup which replaced the civilian one with a more militant one. The coup was in part because of the Army's rejection of an agreement with the U.S. to withdraw from already invaded territories. The new military government of Japan believed that the U.S. would attack them if they seized those resources and they had no reason not to think otherwise, they stage was set.

Believing the U.S. would intervene they needed to eliminate the U.S. forces in the Philippines which sat right along the trade route from the Indies. Leaving those forces meant that when the U.S. did declare war the enemy was sitting right along Japans most strategic trade route.Knowing that an attack on the U.S. in the Philippines would bring on retaliation from the U.S. in general they struck the U.S. Pacific Fleet peremptorily.

If Japan had skipped attacking the U.S. most likely the U.S. would have declared war on Japan, if not immediately then within several months, probably after beefing up the Philippines to the point it was invaluable. Although the pre-war U.S. plan was to abandon the Philippines the realities of war often change plans.

The resources would have had the same effect they did IRL, not enough, and cut off by unrestricted American submarine warfare. The addition of the American forces in the Philippines blocking those resources from day one would be even more detrimental to the Japanese economy. The Pacific Fleet would be intact. The Japanese would be forced to try and fight a U.S. fleet that was aware they were at war and prepared rather than surprised and with a few hours notice (the RL plan was to tell the U.S. just before the Pearl Harbor attack started but that got messed up). In all likelihood the Japanese would lose something in that battle. Losses which they were less likely to absorb and replace than the U.S.

Japan was in a bad situation in 1941. There were no good options just bad options and worse options. It made many decisions in the years before 1941 that lead to those options and it was too late to recover from them and maintain face. Maintaining face is a very important cultural element, and even more important to the reactionary military government that took power than the previous civilian ones that got them in the mess. There was no path in 1941 that didn't lead to war with the U.S. it was just a matter of how that war started and what the positions of the various players forces where when it did.