mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Apr 18, 2017 15:44:56 GMT
What if, in 1941, the Pacific Fleet had stayed in San Diego? Japan still goes to war but without the fleet there do they still make the risky attack on Pearl Harbor? How faster can the US fight?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 18, 2017 18:12:03 GMT
What if, in 1941, the Pacific Fleet had stayed in San Diego? Japan still goes to war but without the fleet there do they still make the risky attack on Pearl Harbor? How faster can the US fight? What is the function of Pearl Harbor in this timeline. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 18, 2017 18:58:30 GMT
I can see two arguments on Pearl.
a) That the Japanese don't attack because the fleet isn't there.
or
b) They still attack but target the facilities in the hope of doing enough damage to make it unuseable for quite a while.
or thinking about it my nightmare scenario.
c) They decide the US is not a serious threat and avoid attacking them, just going for the British and Dutch colonies and resources they want.
All of the above are bad for the allies. If the Pacific fleet is still in existance, even if the US enters the war there is the problem that it will now be built around the slow battlefleet rather than the carriers. There is the distinct chance the Pacific fleet will enter a battle grossely underestimating the danger of Japanese a/c, both carrier and land based. You could see a serious defeat with a lot of ships being sunk in deep water. Both meaning heavier losses and an inability to refloat the losses. Also a serious blow to American morale that, if there has been no attack on Pearl, won't have the same sense of rabid hostility towards Japan as OTL. Especially if Roosevelt has taken the US into the conflict without a preceeding attack on the US.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 18, 2017 19:04:12 GMT
I can see two arguments on Pearl. a) That the Japanese don't attack because the fleet isn't there. or b) They still attack but target the facilities in the hope of doing enough damage to make it unuseable for quite a while. or thinking about it my nightmare scenario. c) They decide the US is not a serious threat and avoid attacking them, just going for the British and Dutch colonies and resources they want. All of the above are bad for the allies. If the Pacific fleet is still in existance, even if the US enters the war there is the problem that it will now be built around the slow battlefleet rather than the carriers. There is the distinct chance the Pacific fleet will enter a battle grossely underestimating the danger of Japanese a/c, both carrier and land based. You could see a serious defeat with a lot of ships being sunk in deep water. Both meaning heavier losses and an inability to refloat the losses. Also a serious blow to American morale that, if there has been no attack on Pearl, won't have the same sense of rabid hostility towards Japan as OTL. Especially if Roosevelt has taken the US into the conflict without a preceeding attack on the US. Option D) the Japanese attempt the Kantai Kessen, another good website is called: Operation Kantai Kessen |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 18, 2017 19:48:37 GMT
I can see two arguments on Pearl. a) That the Japanese don't attack because the fleet isn't there. or b) They still attack but target the facilities in the hope of doing enough damage to make it unuseable for quite a while. or thinking about it my nightmare scenario. c) They decide the US is not a serious threat and avoid attacking them, just going for the British and Dutch colonies and resources they want. All of the above are bad for the allies. If the Pacific fleet is still in existance, even if the US enters the war there is the problem that it will now be built around the slow battlefleet rather than the carriers. There is the distinct chance the Pacific fleet will enter a battle grossely underestimating the danger of Japanese a/c, both carrier and land based. You could see a serious defeat with a lot of ships being sunk in deep water. Both meaning heavier losses and an inability to refloat the losses. Also a serious blow to American morale that, if there has been no attack on Pearl, won't have the same sense of rabid hostility towards Japan as OTL. Especially if Roosevelt has taken the US into the conflict without a preceeding attack on the US. Option D) the Japanese attempt the Kantai Kessen, another good website is called: Operation Kantai Kessen OTL it was called the Battle of Midway. The Japanese attempted a number of such battles, with increasing desperation as the imbalance against them increased more and more. TTL if the USN still has the bulk of its battlefleet it might given them the chance fairly early on, while the Japanese are in a position to win a clear victory. Which won't win them the war if they have attacked Pearl. However if America has not been attacked I can see a lot of isolationists opposing any war with Japan and a heavy early defeat in a set piece battle could be very nasty morale wise. Especially since regardless of what happens the Philippines and probably Guam and Wake will be lost. |
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mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Apr 18, 2017 20:51:56 GMT
What is the function of Pearl Harbor in this timeline.
It is still a US Navy base, It may or may not suffer an attack onDecember 7, 1941. Once the war starts, it may be the new home of the US Pacific Fleet.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 18, 2017 20:58:34 GMT
What is the function of Pearl Harbor in this timeline. It is still a US Navy base, It may or may not suffer an attack onDecember 7, 1941. Once the war starts, it may be the new home of the US Pacific Fleet. That depends on whether the US is in the war and if it is attacked then whether Pearl is in a fit condition to act as the main base for the Pacific fleet. On a naval site I also use the matter has often been discussed of what would have occurred if the Japanese had attacked the oil storage farm and the repair facilities. Bitterly argued over whether they could attack those effectively but if they did it would be pretty much impossible for the base to sustain the fleet. If the fleet wasn't there and the Japanese attacked it would probably be against those facilities and Hawaii, without the fleet being present would probably be even less prepared for such an attack so this might occur. |
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doug181
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Post by doug181 on Apr 19, 2017 1:46:37 GMT
What if, in 1941, the Pacific Fleet had stayed in San Diego? Japan still goes to war but without the fleet there do they still make the risky attack on Pearl Harbor? How faster can the US fight? If the Japanese don't attack Pearl Harbor and go to war against the US makes it hard for FDR to drag us into the war. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 19, 2017 2:47:17 GMT
What if, in 1941, the Pacific Fleet had stayed in San Diego? Japan still goes to war but without the fleet there do they still make the risky attack on Pearl Harbor? How faster can the US fight? If the Japanese don't attack Pearl Harbor and go to war against the US makes it hard for FDR to drag us into the war. Attacking the Philippines might still drag the United States into a war with Japan. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 19, 2017 20:07:55 GMT
If the Japanese don't attack Pearl Harbor and go to war against the US makes it hard for FDR to drag us into the war. Attacking the Philippines might still drag the United States into a war with Japan. I think doug was including the US territories, which would include the Philippines, as not being attacked. This would really be the best bet for Japan if it decided on a strike south. The US either does nothing significant or Rooservelt has to drag a reluctant US into a war the isolationists would claim is to 'defend European colonies'. It sets up a potential nightmare scenario. A US dow on Japan enables the latter to then invade the Philippines. Political pressure on Rooservelt for having declared war and then doing nothing while US territory is being invaded means he overrules military advice and orders a reinforced Pacific fleet to escort a relief mission to the Philippines. Slowed by the old BBs and the transports this suffers attack from IJN subs and land based a/c, being whittled down and then hit by a series of carrier air strikes, with finally the battle-fleet completing the job, inflicting a crushing defeat. Opponents condemn Roosevelts actions and call for his impeachment. The alternative is potentially worse. The US stays neutral and the Japanese invade the DEI, Malaya and Burma as OTL, but a bit faster as their not also fighting the US. [Albeit no doubt holding some forces back to guard against a US attack]. With those losses, Japanese forces raiding in the Indian Ocean and Australia feeling very threatened, plus this activity disrupting supplies to the ME Britain is forced to come to terms with Japan and possibly not long afterwards Nazi Germany. |
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doug181
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Post by doug181 on Apr 20, 2017 1:16:50 GMT
Attacking the Philippines might still drag the United States into a war with Japan. I think doug was including the US territories, which would include the Philippines, as not being attacked. This would really be the best bet for Japan if it decided on a strike south. The US either does nothing significant or Rooservelt has to drag a reluctant US into a war the isolationists would claim is to 'defend European colonies'. It sets up a potential nightmare scenario. A US dow on Japan enables the latter to then invade the Philippines. Political pressure on Rooservelt for having declared war and then doing nothing while US territory is being invaded means he overrules military advice and orders a reinforced Pacific fleet to escort a relief mission to the Philippines. Slowed by the old BBs and the transports this suffers attack from IJN subs and land based a/c, being whittled down and then hit by a series of carrier air strikes, with finally the battle-fleet completing the job, inflicting a crushing defeat. Opponents condemn Roosevelts actions and call for his impeachment. The alternative is potentially worse. The US stays neutral and the Japanese invade the DEI, Malaya and Burma as OTL, but a bit faster as their not also fighting the US. [Albeit no doubt holding some forces back to guard against a US attack]. With those losses, Japanese forces raiding in the Indian Ocean and Australia feeling very threatened, plus this activity disrupting supplies to the ME Britain is forced to come to terms with Japan and possibly not long afterwards Nazi Germany. |
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doug181
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Post by doug181 on Apr 20, 2017 1:18:15 GMT
Exactly, I was thinking Japan does not attack US at all.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2017 2:57:02 GMT
Exactly, I was thinking Japan does not attack US at all. Than i think Japan keeps itself stuck fighting in China because attacking only British and Dutch territory while leaving US territory alone is very dangerous for Japan. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 20, 2017 17:13:09 GMT
Exactly, I was thinking Japan does not attack US at all. Than i think Japan keeps itself stuck fighting in China because attacking only British and Dutch territory while leaving US territory alone is very dangerous for Japan. I dion't know. Britain can't defend the region while also fighting the European Axis as OTL showed and as I point out a rampant Japan raiding westward from Malaya and potentially threatening Australia would be very worrying for both London and Canberra. [True I doubt the Japanese had the logistical capacity to seriously invade Australia but that's unlikely to be that clear at this point]. If there's no sign of Washington getting directly involved I can see a lot of comments about the US being willing to fight to the last drop of British blood and a desire to find as acceptable a settlement as possible with either Japan or Germany or possibly both. Japan is very likely to get the raw materials it needs to keep its empire staggering on for a few more years at least. Also the Burma road to China will be cut isolating the KMT while US prestige will take a hit. Even if the US does declare war fairly quickly they might not be able to do more than OTL and without the attack on Pearl the US is going to be a lot more divided about the conflict. Also a US dow immediately exposes the Philippines, Guam and Wake to attack and the former two at least will definitely still fall. Which leaves FDR open to criticism for opening a war and then doing nothing. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 20, 2017 17:21:56 GMT
Than i think Japan keeps itself stuck fighting in China because attacking only British and Dutch territory while leaving US territory alone is very dangerous for Japan. I dion't know. Britain can't defend the region while also fighting the European Axis as OTL showed and as I point out a rampant Japan raiding westward from Malaya and potentially threatening Australia would be very worrying for both London and Canberra. [True I doubt the Japanese had the logistical capacity to seriously invade Australia but that's unlikely to be that clear at this point]. If there's no sign of Washington getting directly involved I can see a lot of comments about the US being willing to fight to the last drop of British blood and a desire to find as acceptable a settlement as possible with either Japan or Germany or possibly both. Japan is very likely to get the raw materials it needs to keep its empire staggering on for a few more years at least. Also the Burma road to China will be cut isolating the KMT while US prestige will take a hit. Even if the US does declare war fairly quickly they might not be able to do more than OTL and without the attack on Pearl the US is going to be a lot more divided about the conflict. Also a US dow immediately exposes the Philippines, Guam and Wake to attack and the former two at least will definitely still fall. Which leaves FDR open to criticism for opening a war and then doing nothing. It would be berry dangerous for Japan to attack the British and Dutch as they have to move their troops past neutral Philippines. |
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