eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Mar 18, 2017 0:15:03 GMT
What about China, i doubt they are going to like Japan taking over Korea. Sure, but the scenario takes care of the issue. The Japanese basically blitzkrieg their way through Korea and crush organized Korean resistance in their initial offensive, quite possibly before the Ming can organize an expedition to kick them out. Or the Japanese-Jurchen alliance established before the war keeps he Chinese distracted fighting the Jurchen from the beginning. In any case, once the Japanese are done overrunning Korea, they join hands with the Jurchen and attack China. Since the Ming are in serious decline, they are defeated again and again until their power collapses and China falls into chaos. The Japanese and the Jurchen fall to squabbling and blows about the spoils, but given the situation, the Chinese can do little about it, apart from supporting Ming remnants in the southern portion of the country. Eventually the war yields China proper and Mongolia to the Jurchen, and Korea, Greater Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan to Japan. Then the Jurchen get busy for a good while wiping out Ming remnants and consolidating their rule across China. The Japanese do the same entrenching their rule in their own conquests. Any rebellions of Joseon loyalists or ambitious daimyos such as the Tokugawa get stomped out quickly and efficiently enough they never seriously threaten Toyotomi rule, nor create a serious opening for the Qing to exploit. Over time, pacification, assimilation, and settlement of Korea and Greater Manchuria progress enough that the empire can focus the bulk of its military resources against foreign enemies instead of domestic ones, and the combined resources of the Northeast Asian core are sufficient to enable successful defence of the region from Chinese ambitions. On the other hand the Manchu are also done stabilizing their rule, and as long as Qing China remains strong, a renewed attempt to conquer it looks unfeasible and folly. So a strategic stalemate on the Great Wall sets in, occasionally broken by border clashes that do not change anything much. The Kopan Empire keeps a strong navy as well as a powerful army, so Taiwan and Hainan are basically just as secure as Greater Manchuria and Korea from Chinese ambitions. Once the shoguns feel sufficiently strong from ongoing nation-building, they can resume imperial expansion by invading Indochina and/or Malaya. Of course, the Chinese are not going to like it, so they may well intervene, especially for Indochina. Since the Chinese have a land border, but the Japoreans have good power projection capability thanks to their naval superiority and island bases, and the natives probably do not especially fancy either side as overlords, the Indochinese wars might go various ways. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2017 8:18:43 GMT
The Kopan Empire keeps a strong navy as well as a powerful army, so Taiwan and Hainan are basically just as secure as Greater Manchuria and Korea from Chinese ambitions. Once the shoguns feel sufficiently strong from ongoing nation-building, they can resume imperial expansion by invading Indochina and/or Malaya. Of course, the Chinese are not going to like it, so they may well intervene, especially for Indochina. Since the Chinese have a land border, but the Japoreans have good power projection capability thanks to their naval superiority and island bases, and the natives probably do not especially fancy either side as overlords, the Indochinese wars might go various ways. So a Japan that controls Korea becomes a expansionist. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Mar 18, 2017 16:15:07 GMT
The Kopan Empire keeps a strong navy as well as a powerful army, so Taiwan and Hainan are basically just as secure as Greater Manchuria and Korea from Chinese ambitions. Once the shoguns feel sufficiently strong from ongoing nation-building, they can resume imperial expansion by invading Indochina and/or Malaya. Of course, the Chinese are not going to like it, so they may well intervene, especially for Indochina. Since the Chinese have a land border, but the Japoreans have good power projection capability thanks to their naval superiority and island bases, and the natives probably do not especially fancy either side as overlords, the Indochinese wars might go various ways. So a Japan that controls Korea becomes a expansionist. Yep, an expansionist-imperialist hybrid land-naval power, as well as an outward-looking one that enjoys extensive trade and cultural exchanges with foreigners. In this, TTL Japorea is not really different from its OTL Meiji version, apart from the obvious differences: the Kopan Empire remains a centralized feudal society ruled by the Shogun and the daimyo (albeit not one anywhere as hidebound as the Tokugawa and Joseon versions), and does not industrialize (yet), but neither does Europe (yet). It is also not noticeably brutal or racist for the standards of its region and age. The lesson the Toyotomi shoguns and the daimyo learn from Hideyoshi's life work is imperialism works, to a degree, but overarching ambitions do not. He failed to conquer China, but built an empire spanning Northeast Asia. Once they are done building up the core of their empire, and preparing it to be well-defended from Chinese and Russian ambitions, they probably find they can spare some resources for some more imperialist adventures against affordable targets. Hideyoshi set down a precedent of opportunistically befriending the seafaring European powers, so they try to avoid picking fights with the European colonialists if they can avoid it, at least unless they look especially weak. They fight off Chinese and Russian encroachments, but do not make any renewed attempt to conquer China at large, at least as long as it looks strong. Climate probably discourages them from trying to expand too much in the depths of Siberia (at least until industrialization makes the region look more valuable), although they do colonize the Far East and probably keep conquest of Greater Mongolia as a long-standing ambition. This leaves Southeast Asia (at least the portions where the Europeans have not yet staked a strong claim; no need to pick a fight with the Spanish about the Philippines when so much land in the hands of weak native rulers stands unclaimed in the region) as the natural focus of their renewed ambitions. Quite possibly the west coast of North America too, if they roam far enough to realize its true potential. I assume they are going to colonize at least a portion of Southeast Asia, although they face colonial competition with the Europeans in the Malay Archipelago and quite possibly a colonial war or three with the Qing in Indochina, so the outcome of their efforts may vary. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2017 16:41:10 GMT
So a Japan that controls Korea becomes a expansionist. Yep, an expansionist-imperialist hybrid land-naval power, as well as an outward-looking one that enjoys extensive trade and cultural exchanges with foreigners. In this, TTL Japorea is not really different from its OTL Meiji version, apart from the obvious differences: the Kopan Empire remains a centralized feudal society ruled by the Shogun and the daimyo (albeit not so hidebound as the Tokugawa and Joseon), and does not industrialize (yet), but neither does Europe (yet). It is also not noticeably brutal or racist for the standards of its region and age. The lesson the shogun and the daimyo learn from Toyotomi's life work is imperialism works, to a degree. He failed to conquer China, but built an empire spanning Northeast Asia. Once they are done building up the core of their empire, and preparing it to be well-defended from possible Chinese and Russian ambitions, they probably find they can spare some resources for some more imperialist adventures. Hideyoshi set down a precedent of opportunistically befriending the seafaring European powers, so they try to avoid picking fights with the European colonialists if they can avoid it, at least unless they look especially weak. They fight off Chinese and Russian encroachments, but do not make any renewed attempt to conquer China at large, at least as long as it looks sufficiently strong. Climate probably discourages them from trying to expand too much in the depths of Siberia (at least until industrialization makes the region look more valuable), although they do colonize the Far East and probably keep conquest and assimilation of Greater Mongolia as a long-standing ambition. This leaves Southeast Asia (at least the portions where the Europeans have not yet staked a strong claim; no need to pick a fight with the Spanish about the Philippines when so much land in the hands of weak native rulers stands unclaimed in the region) as the natural focus of their renewed expansionist ambitions. Quite possibly the west coast of North America too, if they roam far enough. I assume they are going to colonize at least a portion of Southeast Asia, although they face colonial competition with the Europeans in the Malay Archipelago and quite possibly a colonial war or three with the Qing in Indochina, so the outcome may vary. Would we see the Japanese imperial family merge with the Royal Korean family ore will they remain two separate houses. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Mar 18, 2017 18:08:22 GMT
Yep, an expansionist-imperialist hybrid land-naval power, as well as an outward-looking one that enjoys extensive trade and cultural exchanges with foreigners. In this, TTL Japorea is not really different from its OTL Meiji version, apart from the obvious differences: the Kopan Empire remains a centralized feudal society ruled by the Shogun and the daimyo (albeit not so hidebound as the Tokugawa and Joseon), and does not industrialize (yet), but neither does Europe (yet). It is also not noticeably brutal or racist for the standards of its region and age. The lesson the shogun and the daimyo learn from Toyotomi's life work is imperialism works, to a degree. He failed to conquer China, but built an empire spanning Northeast Asia. Once they are done building up the core of their empire, and preparing it to be well-defended from possible Chinese and Russian ambitions, they probably find they can spare some resources for some more imperialist adventures. Hideyoshi set down a precedent of opportunistically befriending the seafaring European powers, so they try to avoid picking fights with the European colonialists if they can avoid it, at least unless they look especially weak. They fight off Chinese and Russian encroachments, but do not make any renewed attempt to conquer China at large, at least as long as it looks sufficiently strong. Climate probably discourages them from trying to expand too much in the depths of Siberia (at least until industrialization makes the region look more valuable), although they do colonize the Far East and probably keep conquest and assimilation of Greater Mongolia as a long-standing ambition. This leaves Southeast Asia (at least the portions where the Europeans have not yet staked a strong claim; no need to pick a fight with the Spanish about the Philippines when so much land in the hands of weak native rulers stands unclaimed in the region) as the natural focus of their renewed expansionist ambitions. Quite possibly the west coast of North America too, if they roam far enough. I assume they are going to colonize at least a portion of Southeast Asia, although they face colonial competition with the Europeans in the Malay Archipelago and quite possibly a colonial war or three with the Qing in Indochina, so the outcome may vary. Would we see the Japanese imperial family merge with the Royal Korean family ore will they remain two separate houses. An extensive degree of intermarrying takes place between Japanese and Korean nobility (as well as the Jurchen one once the Empire assimilates Greater Manchuria), and it goes all the way to the Toyotomi and Yamato houses. Given as things usually go for royal houses, it likely goes a little bit of both. A joint Yamato-Joseon House forms that reigns as the Kopan Empire's figurehead. Cadet branches of the two houses remain distinct and diverge enough from the royal family to join the Empire's high nobility. As for the Toyotomi, I dunno if they intermarry with the Joseon specifically, of just high-ranking members of the Korean nobility and other powerful daimyo. In the Heian Era, the Yamato family intermarried a lot with the Fujiwara regent family, and IIRC the practice continued to some degree during the shogunate, so we may probably expect the Toyotomi to follow suit. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2017 18:25:00 GMT
Would we see the Japanese imperial family merge with the Royal Korean family ore will they remain two separate houses. An extensive degree of intermarrying takes place between Japanese and Korean nobility (as well as the Jurchen one once the Empire assimilates Greater Manchuria), and it goes all the way to the Toyotomi and Yamato houses. Given as things usually do for royal houses, it likely goes a little bit of both. A joint Yamato-Joseon House forms that reigns as the Kopan Empire's figurehead. Cadet branches of the two houses remain distinct and diverge enough from the royal family to join the Empire's high nobility. As for the Toyotomi, I dunno if they intermarry with the Joseon specifically, of just high-ranking members of the Korean nobility and other powerful daimyo. In the Heian Era, the Yamato family intermarried a lot with the Fujiwara regent family, and IIRC the practice continued to some degree during the shogunate, so we may probably expect the Toyotomi to follow suit. So after Korea i think this will be the next step Invasion of Ryukyu |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Mar 18, 2017 19:01:57 GMT
An extensive degree of intermarrying takes place between Japanese and Korean nobility (as well as the Jurchen one once the Empire assimilates Greater Manchuria), and it goes all the way to the Toyotomi and Yamato houses. Given as things usually do for royal houses, it likely goes a little bit of both. A joint Yamato-Joseon House forms that reigns as the Kopan Empire's figurehead. Cadet branches of the two houses remain distinct and diverge enough from the royal family to join the Empire's high nobility. As for the Toyotomi, I dunno if they intermarry with the Joseon specifically, of just high-ranking members of the Korean nobility and other powerful daimyo. In the Heian Era, the Yamato family intermarried a lot with the Fujiwara regent family, and IIRC the practice continued to some degree during the shogunate, so we may probably expect the Toyotomi to follow suit. So after Korea i think this will be the next step Invasion of RyukyuIndeed. Or to be more exact, almost surely ITTL conquest of the Ryukyu takes place as a sideshow and strategic preliminary to the conquest of Taiwan and Hainan during the Japanese-Jurchen wars. Only ITTL the shoguns do not bother keeping the Ryukyu as a vassal state. Given their greater imperialist attitude and competitive stance with China ITTL, they directly annex it. ITTL the broad sequence likely is: Japanese conquest of Korea and start of Ming-Jurchen conflict - combined Japanese-Jurchen assault on China and downfall of the Ming - Japanese-Jurchen wars for China and conquest of Ryukyu - peace of exhaustion with Qing China-Mongolia and Toyotomi Japan-Korea-Manchuria and Ryukyu-Taiwan-Hainan - Qing-Toyotomi Cold War as both sides build up and stabilize their empires - Chinese-Japorean-Russian border wars that stabilize the Great Wall and the Lena-Baikal line as a border - Kopan expansion in uncolonized Southeast Asia and possible Chinese-Japorean colonial wars for Indochina. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 18, 2017 19:05:44 GMT
Indeed. Or to be more exact, almost surely ITTL conquest of the Ryukyu takes place as a sideshow and strategic preliminary to the conquest of Taiwan and Hainan during the Japanese-Jurchen wars. Only ITTL the shoguns do not bother keeping the Ryukyu as a vassal state. Given their much greater imperialist attitude and competitive stance with China ITTL, they directly annex it. ITTL the broad sequence likely is: Japanese conquest of Korea and start of Ming-Jurchen conflict - combined Japanese-Jurchen assault of China and downfall of the Ming - Japanese-Jurchen wars for China and conquest of Ryukyu - peace of exhaustion with Qing China-Mongolia and Toyotomi Japan-Korea-Manchuria and Ryukyu-Taiwan-Hainan - Qing-Toyotomi Cold War as both sides build up and stabilize their empires - Chinese-Japorean-Russian border wars that stabilize the borders of the three empires on the Great Wall and the Lena-Baikal line - Kopan Empire's imperial expansion in uncolonized Southeast Asia and possible Chinese-Japorean colonial wars for Indochina. That would result in a major empire, wonder if they can keep it for long ore if it falls when the Europeans arrive several hundred years later. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Mar 18, 2017 19:33:57 GMT
Indeed. Or to be more exact, almost surely ITTL conquest of the Ryukyu takes place as a sideshow and strategic preliminary to the conquest of Taiwan and Hainan during the Japanese-Jurchen wars. Only ITTL the shoguns do not bother keeping the Ryukyu as a vassal state. Given their much greater imperialist attitude and competitive stance with China ITTL, they directly annex it. ITTL the broad sequence likely is: Japanese conquest of Korea and start of Ming-Jurchen conflict - combined Japanese-Jurchen assault of China and downfall of the Ming - Japanese-Jurchen wars for China and conquest of Ryukyu - peace of exhaustion with Qing China-Mongolia and Toyotomi Japan-Korea-Manchuria and Ryukyu-Taiwan-Hainan - Qing-Toyotomi Cold War as both sides build up and stabilize their empires - Chinese-Japorean-Russian border wars that stabilize the borders of the three empires on the Great Wall and the Lena-Baikal line - Kopan Empire's imperial expansion in uncolonized Southeast Asia and possible Chinese-Japorean colonial wars for Indochina. That would result in a major empire, wonder if they can keep it for long ore if it falls when the Europeans arrive several hundred years later. This is critically reliant on whether the empire is able to industrialize and modernize timely enough when Europe starts doing it. It might go both ways, since the Japorean elites might conceivably fall to complacence because of their successes. However given a more hidebound version of Japan was able to accomplish the Meiji modernization, and this version looks more outward-looking and dynamic and a proto-Meiji in many aspects to begin with, I think most likely they match up with Europe quick enough to remain its equal when the time comes. After all, they do keep extensive trade and cultural exchanges with Europe and an imperialist-expansionist drive in East Asia and the Pacific during their golden age, and they distance themselves from Confucian influence, so they may well remain dynamic enough to rise to the challenge of industrialization. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 31, 2017 17:36:10 GMT
Have the Spanish generally fail to colonize Luzon one of the POD is Limahong does not come in the Philippines..in this scenario the Japanese would not consider isolating itself as an option.
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Post by lordroel on May 31, 2017 17:43:08 GMT
Have the Spanish generally fail to colonize Luzon one of the POD is Limahong does not come in the Philippines..in this scenario the Japanese would not consider isolating itself as an option. But what prevents Lim Hong the pirate from not setting up shop in the Philippines if there are no Spanish to fight. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 31, 2017 17:50:38 GMT
Have the Spanish generally fail to colonize Luzon one of the POD is Limahong does not come in the Philippines..in this scenario the Japanese would not consider isolating itself as an option. But what prevents Lim Hong the pirate from not setting up shop in the Philippines if there are no Spanish to fight. If Limahong does not attack or the Native Kingdoms in Luzon were smarter in dealing with Limahong and treat the Spanish and their allies as the real enemies, in this case the Spanish are screwed.. |
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Post by lordroel on May 31, 2017 17:53:06 GMT
But what prevents Lim Hong the pirate from not setting up shop in the Philippines if there are no Spanish to fight. If Limahong does not attack or the Native Kingdoms in Luzon were smarter in dealing with Limahong and treat the Spanish and their allies as the real enemies, in this case the Spanish are screwed.. And if the Japanese by some miracle come and replace the Spanish in taking over the Philippines than i can assume they will encounter Lim Hong the pirate. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 31, 2017 17:58:14 GMT
If Limahong does not attack or the Native Kingdoms in Luzon were smarter in dealing with Limahong and treat the Spanish and their allies as the real enemies, in this case the Spanish are screwed.. And if the Japanese by some miracle come and replace the Spanish in taking over the Philippines than i can assume they will encounter Lim Hong the pirate. The Japanese would first need to conquer Taiwan, the Kingdoms in Luzon would continue to be an intermediary to the Japanese and the Malays as they were in the era of Majapahit, they would be more united once they encounter the Japanese. |
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Post by lordroel on May 31, 2017 18:01:15 GMT
And if the Japanese by some miracle come and replace the Spanish in taking over the Philippines than i can assume they will encounter Lim Hong the pirate. The Japanese would first need to conquer Taiwan, the Kingdoms in Luzon would continue to be an intermediary to the Japanese and the Malays as they were in the era of Majapahit, they would be more united once they encounter the Japanese. So the saying works for them, The enemy of my enemy is my friend. |
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