mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Jan 31, 2017 2:41:15 GMT
The POD is moving back the Shah's cancer. He dies in Egypt his first stop after he went into exile. He does not come to the United States, so the embassy is not taken over. This means that Jimmy Carter does not have this burden when he runs for reelection in 1980. With the recession, he still loses but it is closer. The popular vote is Reagan 47% to Carter's 44%. Carter not only carries not only the OTL Rhode Island, Maryland, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Georgia, Minnesota and Hawaii, but the close states of Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Delaware, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Wisconsin. The Electoral College results are Reagan 341 and Carter 197. Reagan has less of a mandate. Reagan is a minority President. Carter's domination of the South and strength in the Northeast gives Reagan less of a national sweep. Reagan does not have the psychological effect of being declared the winner at 8 pm Eastern Time. Because Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois with their 75 electoral votes were close, Reagan is not declared the winner until around midnight, The election is remembered as a nail biter rather than a landslide. Reagan also had a less friendly Congress. Democrats win the Senate contests in New York, Pennslyvania, North Carolina, Georgiam Floridam Alabama, Wisconsin, Idaho and Arizonia, The Senate was 56 to 44 Democratic rather than the OTL 53 to 47 Republican. 17 more Democrats win Hosue races than OTL. The House was 259 to 179 Democratic rather than OTL's 242 to 196. I think there would have been enough bipartisan support for Reagan's tax and budget cuts to pass, but he would have had to do more compromising than OTL. Reagan still gets reelected in prosperous 1984 and still tries to ransom hostages by selling arms to Iran in 1986. While Iran did not hold American hostages, it is still a nation that supported terrorism. That and the attemot to ransom hostages makes Reagan look bad. Because the American Embassey is not invaded, the US and Iran do not break thier diplomatic relations. That means that US Embassey is involved in the arms sales. More people know about the arms sales and there is more of chance of a leak. If the news is public before the 1986 election, than the Democrats could do better. There is one 1986 election that is particularly interesting ITTL. If Barry Goldwater's replacement is popular and wins reelection than he denies John McCain a seat in the Senate
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 31, 2017 4:12:37 GMT
The POD is moving back the Shah's cancer. He dies in Egypt his first stop after he went into exile. He does not come to the United States, so the embassy is not taken over. This means that Jimmy Carter does not have this burden when he runs for reelection in 1980. With the recession, he still loses but it is closer. The popular vote is Reagan 47% to Carter's 44%. Carter not only carries not only the OTL Rhode Island, Maryland, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Georgia, Minnesota and Hawaii, but the close states of Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Delaware, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Wisconsin. The Electoral College results are Reagan 341 and Carter 197. Reagan has less of a mandate. Reagan is a minority President. Carter's domination of the South and strength in the Northeast gives Reagan less of a national sweep. Reagan does not have the psychological effect of being declared the winner at 8 pm Eastern Time. Because Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois with their 75 electoral votes were close, Reagan is not declared the winner until around midnight, The election is remembered as a nail biter rather than a landslide. Reagan also had a less friendly Congress. Democrats win the Senate contests in New York, Pennslyvania, North Carolina, Georgiam Floridam Alabama, Wisconsin, Idaho and Arizonia, The Senate was 56 to 44 Democratic rather than the OTL 53 to 47 Republican. 17 more Democrats win Hosue races than OTL. The House was 259 to 179 Democratic rather than OTL's 242 to 196. I think there would have been enough bipartisan support for Reagan's tax and budget cuts to pass, but he would have had to do more compromising than OTL. Reagan still gets reelected in prosperous 1984 and still tries to ransom hostages by selling arms to Iran in 1986. While Iran did not hold American hostages, it is still a nation that supported terrorism. That and the attemot to ransom hostages makes Reagan look bad. Because the American Embassey is not invaded, the US and Iran do not break thier diplomatic relations. That means that US Embassey is involved in the arms sales. More people know about the arms sales and there is more of chance of a leak. If the news is public before the 1986 election, than the Democrats could do better. There is one 1986 election that is particularly interesting ITTL. If Barry Goldwater's replacement is popular and wins reelection than he denies John McCain a seat in the Senate Well at least Carter still lose even without a Iran Hostage Crisis.
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doug181
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Post by doug181 on Jan 31, 2017 11:43:48 GMT
Carter ran as a moderate, full blown liberal in office' i see him still losing big
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mcnutt
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Post by mcnutt on Feb 2, 2017 23:04:17 GMT
Benjamin L Jessup I think Mondale does better ITTL. Liz Hotzamn is elected senator in 1980. She becomes the leading female politician. She not Geraldine Ferraro is Mondale's running mate. Since Holtzman was unmarried there is no controversy over her husband's finances. She does not talk about being married to an Italian man. He does a few percentage points better. Maybe enough to carry Massachusettes and Rhoade Island.
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doug181
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Post by doug181 on Feb 3, 2017 14:04:54 GMT
What ever happened to Holtzman?
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pericles
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Post by pericles on Feb 7, 2017 23:13:34 GMT
Without the hostage crisis, Ted Kennedy would likely have won the 1980 Democratic nomination. Carter was very unpopular before the crisis but afterwards he got a bounce from a rally round the flag effect, While it did hurt him on Election Day when he couldn't resolve it, it helped Carter get to Election Day by boosting him against Ted kennedy and enabling him to sweep the early primaries until April and build an insurmountable delegate lead. Without it, Kennedy would have won early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Maine and then likely the nomination, and it would be Kennedy vs Reagan.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 8, 2017 4:09:40 GMT
Without the hostage crisis, Ted Kennedy would likely have won the 1980 Democratic nomination. Carter was very unpopular before the crisis but afterwards he got a bounce from a rally round the flag effect, While it did hurt him on Election Day when he couldn't resolve it, it helped Carter get to Election Day by boosting him against Ted kennedy and enabling him to sweep the early primaries until April and build an insurmountable delegate lead. Without it, Kennedy would have won early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Maine and then likely the nomination, and it would be Kennedy vs Reagan. And who would win do you think.
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pericles
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Post by pericles on Feb 8, 2017 18:47:34 GMT
Without the hostage crisis, Ted Kennedy would likely have won the 1980 Democratic nomination. Carter was very unpopular before the crisis but afterwards he got a bounce from a rally round the flag effect, While it did hurt him on Election Day when he couldn't resolve it, it helped Carter get to Election Day by boosting him against Ted kennedy and enabling him to sweep the early primaries until April and build an insurmountable delegate lead. Without it, Kennedy would have won early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Maine and then likely the nomination, and it would be Kennedy vs Reagan. And who would win do you think. Probably Reagan. Kennedy emerges from a close and divisive primary fight, Carter's faction of the party is lukewarm and some moderates may go for Anderson. Kennedy is more popular than Carter and can rally the base, but he has Chappaquidick and may be too liberal. Kennedy vs Reagan is a straight liberals I'm vs conservatism contest. Reagan wins with a sweep of the South but narrower overall.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 8, 2017 18:48:55 GMT
And who would win do you think. Probably Reagan. Kennedy emerges from a close and divisive primary fight, Carter's faction of the party is lukewarm and some moderates may go for Anderson. Kennedy is more popular than Carter and can rally the base, but he has Chappaquidick and may be too liberal. Kennedy vs Reagan is a straight liberals I'm vs conservatism contest. Reagan wins with a sweep of the South but narrower overall. So history is back on track with a Reagan win.
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pericles
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Post by pericles on Feb 8, 2017 20:18:23 GMT
Alternate 1980 Ronald Reagan/George Bush-Republican: 390 EV 47.00%Ted Kennedy/Dale Bumpers-Democratic: 148 EV 41.76%John Anderson/Patrick Lucey-Independent: 0 EV 8.81%
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 9, 2017 3:40:25 GMT
Alternate 1980 Ronald Reagan/George Bush-Republican: 390 EV 47.00%Ted Kennedy/Dale Bumpers-Democratic: 148 EV 41.76%John Anderson/Patrick Lucey-Independent: 0 EV 8.81%Where is the picture i might ask.
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pericles
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Post by pericles on Feb 9, 2017 3:59:07 GMT
Alternate 1980 Ronald Reagan/George Bush-Republican: 390 EV 47.00%Ted Kennedy/Dale Bumpers-Democratic: 148 EV 41.76%John Anderson/Patrick Lucey-Independent: 0 EV 8.81%Where is the picture i might ask. US election atlas 1980 map.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 9, 2017 3:59:45 GMT
Where is the picture i might ask. US election atlas 1980 map. Thank for the explanation.
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pericles
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Post by pericles on Mar 10, 2017 5:06:33 GMT
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 10, 2017 6:56:18 GMT
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