What if:- The US never breaks with Taiwan

  Inspired by Trump's association with Taiwan I wondered what if in the late 70's the US continues to recognise Taiwan as an independent state.  Its still gone with the rest of the world and recognised communist China plus accepting them having the permanent seat in the Security council.  However they refuse to drop Taiwan and accept mainland China's claim its only a break-away province.

  Thinking of two main factors with this:
a)  Deng's reforms and China's dramatic growth in the early years especially relied heavily on foreign investment and expertise and the majority of this in the early years came from Taiwan and Hong Kong, which may not be the case, while its also likely there will be less from the US and probably other western nations.

b)  As such China may struggle and won't expand as dramatically as OTL.  This might mean that there is more questioning of opening up to the rest of the world.  Not saying it will relapse into Mao like idealogical and autocratic excesses but can see it being significantly weaker and deeply distrustful of the west.  It will also probably be isolated somewhat diplomatically as I doubt it would form a new alliance with the Soviets who deeply distrusted the Chines once they broke with them over Stalin's reputation and methods.

  I would see TTL's 2016 as being somewhat poorer economically without the dramatic development of China.  The western powers are likely to have a broader industrial base but still be challenged if not surpassed by assorted Asian tigers.  Without China Japan is still likely to be the 2nd economic power and possibly might have emerged from its prolonged economic malaise.  Hong Kong is likely to have a grim future as I can't see Britain holding onto it once the lease on the new territories ends but hopefully you might see a lot of its people offered refuge in the west before its handed over to this darker China.

  You might see China following the Russian path of economic and social collapse, although whether it would be as relatively bloodless as the Russian one, presuming that still goes as 'well' as OTL I wouldn't like to say.  However it might still be staggering on, or doing moderately well with a somewhat limited level of reform. 

  Anyway, what do people think might happen?

  Steve