lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 10, 2020 19:32:14 GMT
The French ordered a lot of American planes who in OTL ended up in RAF service, with the Free French still in the fight i see them going to Free French in Africa instead of the United Kingdom. Also we most likely will not see a attack on Mers-el-Kébir, thus the Free French Navy will together with the Royal Navy dominate the Mediterranean. Very likely in the short term at least as France has gold reserves and also resources in the empire to make further purchases. Definitely no Mers-el-Kébir, at least not by Britain. The Italians might try something, most likely with the mini-subs but that would probably be later in the war anyway.
A stronger Free French will also have butterflies in French Indochina, the Free French will not easy cave in to Japanese demands, might see the Japanese given active support to Thailand during the Franco-Thai War. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Feb 11, 2020 4:38:37 GMT
Wouldn't have made much of a difference. 100,000 French troops were evacuated through Dunkirk IOTL, put on the Weygand Line and then decisively beat once again about a week later; with Northern France in German hands, over 70% of French industry and the vast majority of their coal and steel is held by Berlin. Germany did not commit serious forces into North Africa until 1941 so even if the Anglo-French overrun Libya in 1940-which isn't going to happen-it matters not. More importantly, however, is the fact that Stalin might be further lulled into the sense of complacence he had after France fell IOTL>
Were those troops returned to combat that quickly or just returned to France? I'm dubious about the former as they would have lacked all but the most basic equipment while also being disorganised. Plus at least some of those troops were only returned after the armistice.
If France decided to fight on those troops are likely to either stay in Britain or be moved to FNA, but either way would be re-equipped before they saw new combat. Also a France that fights on is going to have both its forces in the empire united behind the cause and what forces it will withdraw from southern France to Algeria. From some sources this would include a lot of their a/c albeit supporting them in N Africa would be problematic in the longer term. Plus of course the bulk of the French fleet.
Under those circumstances, especially since a longer battle in France would probably prevent or greatly reduce any Battle of Britain, then Libya is likely to be attacked from FNA sometime in 1940. British ground forces might join in this offensive or attack from Egypt or possibly both. Under those circumstances Hitler might well seek to aid Mussolini but with naval superiority and the Italians having to run supply lines passed Tunisia its going to be difficult to reinforce Libya.
Libya is likely to fall either in late 40 or early 41. Of course such a conflict is likely to prevent the Italian attack on Greece so things will be different in the Balkans. Italian E Africa will probably be mopped up a bit earlier as well. Germany is still likely to go for the Soviets in 1941, which might come a week or two earlier than OTL, once the ground dries enough. Might involve a bit more force than OTL unless Hitler decides that he needs to keep more forces back to safeguard his situation in the Med and France, all of which now has to be occupied.
France fighting on improves the naval situation considerably for the allies and the quick ending of the Libyan conflict would also be a big boost. Also some other significant factors such as FIC is going to be allied so if/when the Japanese seek to occupy it things will get a lot more complex.
Yes; many of the French troops were back in France fighting the Germans in a matter of hours in some cases. France, in mainland France at least, could only last for a handful more weeks even had they wanted to, given their logistical situation with the capture of Northern France. As for North Africa, the Italians are far too strong and the British nor the French in a position to do anything about it. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 11, 2020 12:41:04 GMT
Were those troops returned to combat that quickly or just returned to France? I'm dubious about the former as they would have lacked all but the most basic equipment while also being disorganised. Plus at least some of those troops were only returned after the armistice.
If France decided to fight on those troops are likely to either stay in Britain or be moved to FNA, but either way would be re-equipped before they saw new combat. Also a France that fights on is going to have both its forces in the empire united behind the cause and what forces it will withdraw from southern France to Algeria. From some sources this would include a lot of their a/c albeit supporting them in N Africa would be problematic in the longer term. Plus of course the bulk of the French fleet.
Under those circumstances, especially since a longer battle in France would probably prevent or greatly reduce any Battle of Britain, then Libya is likely to be attacked from FNA sometime in 1940. British ground forces might join in this offensive or attack from Egypt or possibly both. Under those circumstances Hitler might well seek to aid Mussolini but with naval superiority and the Italians having to run supply lines passed Tunisia its going to be difficult to reinforce Libya.
Libya is likely to fall either in late 40 or early 41. Of course such a conflict is likely to prevent the Italian attack on Greece so things will be different in the Balkans. Italian E Africa will probably be mopped up a bit earlier as well. Germany is still likely to go for the Soviets in 1941, which might come a week or two earlier than OTL, once the ground dries enough. Might involve a bit more force than OTL unless Hitler decides that he needs to keep more forces back to safeguard his situation in the Med and France, all of which now has to be occupied.
France fighting on improves the naval situation considerably for the allies and the quick ending of the Libyan conflict would also be a big boost. Also some other significant factors such as FIC is going to be allied so if/when the Japanese seek to occupy it things will get a lot more complex.
Yes; many of the French troops were back in France fighting the Germans in a matter of hours in some cases. France, in mainland France at least, could only last for a handful more weeks even had they wanted to, given their logistical situation with the capture of Northern France. As for North Africa, the Italians are far too strong and the British nor the French in a position to do anything about it.
The link you gave mentions the fighting of British forces and French units defending norther France and how they were forced back. I can see no mention of any French forces evacuated from Dunkirk being thrown into the fighting here.
Yes there are a lot of Italian forces in Libya but as Operation Compass showed their equipment, moral and leadership are poor quality. Here also their going to face virtual isolation as the French and British have a clear naval superiority and with Tunisia so close to Tripoli its going to be very difficult and costly getting supplies through. Once its clear that no invasion of Britain will occur, which will be earlier as the additional fighting in France and garrison duties for southern France, then Britain can reinforce FNA a lot easier than Egypt. Its only a short distance from the border to Tripoli and once that's gone the Italians are dependent on small ports at Benghazi and Tobruk which are a long way from Italy and themselves vulnerable to attack from Egypt.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 11, 2020 19:29:43 GMT
Does this mean that Syria and Madagascar will also remain loyal to Free France.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Feb 12, 2020 4:38:45 GMT
The link you gave mentions the fighting of British forces and French units defending norther France and how they were forced back. I can see no mention of any French forces evacuated from Dunkirk being thrown into the fighting here.
Yes there are a lot of Italian forces in Libya but as Operation Compass showed their equipment, moral and leadership are poor quality. Here also their going to face virtual isolation as the French and British have a clear naval superiority and with Tunisia so close to Tripoli its going to be very difficult and costly getting supplies through. Once its clear that no invasion of Britain will occur, which will be earlier as the additional fighting in France and garrison duties for southern France, then Britain can reinforce FNA a lot easier than Egypt. Its only a short distance from the border to Tripoli and once that's gone the Italians are dependent on small ports at Benghazi and Tobruk which are a long way from Italy and themselves vulnerable to attack from Egypt.
I might have linked the wrong one; HyperWar is rather extensive. If you're okay with it, so as to save me the trouble, I'll link to Wikipedia: As for the Italians, Operation Compass was the British taking advantage of their over-extension after the threat of invasion had receded, allowing them to shift forces to North Africa finally. Surviving French forces would be in much the same boat, needing months to rest and rebuild in North Africa. It is unlikely they could close off Libya before Mid-1941 at the earliest; the Western Desert Force by the time the operation had closed had run into the same logistical issues that the Italians had held previously and this granted Rommel a major advantage when he initially came in. The Italians also, IOTL, had strongly fortified positions and rushed in reinforcements, replacing their losses rapidly and bringing them up to an in-theater strength of over 150,000. Also, this might just be a matter of academic debate; Italy might not even join in if France has elected to fight on. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 12, 2020 16:13:47 GMT
The link you gave mentions the fighting of British forces and French units defending norther France and how they were forced back. I can see no mention of any French forces evacuated from Dunkirk being thrown into the fighting here.
Yes there are a lot of Italian forces in Libya but as Operation Compass showed their equipment, moral and leadership are poor quality. Here also their going to face virtual isolation as the French and British have a clear naval superiority and with Tunisia so close to Tripoli its going to be very difficult and costly getting supplies through. Once its clear that no invasion of Britain will occur, which will be earlier as the additional fighting in France and garrison duties for southern France, then Britain can reinforce FNA a lot easier than Egypt. Its only a short distance from the border to Tripoli and once that's gone the Italians are dependent on small ports at Benghazi and Tobruk which are a long way from Italy and themselves vulnerable to attack from Egypt.
I might have linked the wrong one; HyperWar is rather extensive. If you're okay with it, so as to save me the trouble, I'll link to Wikipedia: As for the Italians, Operation Compass was the British taking advantage of their over-extension after the threat of invasion had receded, allowing them to shift forces to North Africa finally. Surviving French forces would be in much the same boat, needing months to rest and rebuild in North Africa. It is unlikely they could close off Libya before Mid-1941 at the earliest; the Western Desert Force by the time the operation had closed had run into the same logistical issues that the Italians had held previously and this granted Rommel a major advantage when he initially came in. The Italians also, IOTL, had strongly fortified positions and rushed in reinforcements, replacing their losses rapidly and bringing them up to an in-theater strength of over 150,000. Also, this might just be a matter of academic debate; Italy might not even join in if France has elected to fight on.
OK thanks. That sounds like the bulk of the French forces evacuated from Dunkirk. I wouldn't have thought the French would have had the time to get them back and even partially re-equip them as well as reorganise them into new units. However sounds like they at least made the attempt.
The Italians were only over-extended a bit in that they have moved a little way across the border from Egypt. It was more poor equipment and leadership with the assorted units being dug in in positions that couldn't support each other, inviting defence in detail. The main logistics problems were because of the long distance from Tripoli.
Here things are much better for the allies. Its going to be a hell of a lot more difficult for the Italians to get supplies to Libya with Malta supported by French bases and hence there is almost certainly going to be marked supply problems for the Italians and their likely to see a lot more naval clashes as they try and get forces through. Almost certainly there are Italian defences on the border with Tunisia as there were on the French side but there were defences in Cyrenaica as well and the allies were able to fight their way through them so far from impossible. The big factor however is that with allied bases in E Algeria and Tunisia the allies are very close to Tripoli and if that's taken or simply isolated then the Italians have great difficulty getting anything to the colony at all, as its only got two small ports in the east.
I'm not saying that the allies will be attacking in say July/August 40 as it will take longer to regroup but could easily see such attacks by December or a bit earlier as French colonial forces would already be in place and its easier for British based forces to reach FNA than Egypt. You might still see a second attack from Egypt as Indian and ANZAC forces can reach there fairly easily. Those might tie down Italian forces there even if they don't defeat them as OTL. However once Tripoli is taken Libya is pretty much lost as the Italians have long and vulnerable supply lines to small ports at Benghazi and Tobruk and anything that lands there can only really operate near them else they have a considerable distance to travel.
Italy OTL joined the war on the 10th June so of the war goes as OTL until then its likely they would do so again. If they don't and France keeps fighting then they might well not change their mind, although Italians advanturism against Greece as OTL could prompt allied intervention against them, which would be likely to be primarily naval and attacks on Italian colonies as well as the OTL supplies to Greece.
Steve
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archibald
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Post by archibald on Aug 4, 2020 16:28:53 GMT
Some precision about FFO - France Fights On. There was indeed a split 10 years ago. Mark Bailey did a fantastic job on naval matters but split from the french time over, hmmm, political issues. FFO is two things. It was the name of the whole thing before the "Bailey split". Then, Mark Bailey developed his own variant called APOD. The French side carried on with La France Continue La Guerre website. By 2010 a first book got published by Tallandier, covering 1940-41. Second book in 2012, covering 1942. Third book is in the making, will cover 1943-44. There has even been a comic (with a necessarily much compressed story but stupendous art) and also "spinoff" by member Crixos (la petite guerre) - and others are coming.
We are welcoming english speakers willing to make a contribution. Presently looking for help on alternate Eastern Front campaign. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 4, 2020 16:40:31 GMT
Some precision about FFO - France Fights On. There was indeed a split 10 years ago. Mark Bailey did a fantastic job on naval matters but split from the french time over, hmmm, political issues. FFO is two things. It was the name of the whole thing before the "Bailey split". Then, Mark Bailey developed his own variant called APOD. The French side carried on with La France Continue La Guerre website. By 2010 a first book got published by Tallandier, covering 1940-41. Second book in 2012, covering 1942. Third book is in the making, will cover 1943-44. There has even been a comic (with a necessarily much compressed story but stupendous art) and also "spinoff" by member Crixos (la petite guerre) - and others are coming. We are welcoming english speakers willing to make a contribution. Presently looking for help on alternate Eastern Front campaign. Was going to link this thread archibald but seems you found it already. Thanks for the short recap, love the FFO but hate tapatalk the forum is on. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 6, 2020 2:18:09 GMT
It's often touted as a big effect, but in sum total I expect it to be a wash. North Africa does probably get wrapped up in 1941, but on the flipside Hitler can entice the Spanish into the conflict via the promise of French colonies.
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archibald
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Post by archibald on Aug 6, 2020 8:03:45 GMT
Stevep, You put your finger right on a hotly debated point. I can tell you the "spanish hypothesis" was thoroughly reviewed and debated.
To such a point, the authors could write an encyclopedia on "Francisco Franco inner psychology".  LFCLG (La France Continue La Guerre) team decided Franco would not enter the fight.
Case 1 Hitler tries to convince Franco to join the Axis
Spain laid in ruins, and most importantly Franco was an extremely cautious and pragmatic guy - a polar opposite of Mussolini. This allowed him to last 30 more years (1975 vs 1945) and die peacefully in an hospital, of old age.
Case 2
If Hitler decides to invade Spain, good luck to him (Napoleon 2.0: failed in Spain before failing in Russia). The country is as large as France (1000 km north to south, 500 000 squarred km) except with more mountains everywhere and much hoter with few water. Also the French army already wore out the Wermacht from Alsace to the Pyrénées, from May 10 to August 10 1940 (yes, the fight for the Métropole ends on August 8 near the Mediterranean, France-Spanish border - Banyuls). Case 3 is Franco pulling a "legion kondor 2.0" and allowing the LW into the Baleares or Gibraltar to Blitz North Africa, Battle of Britain style. This was taken into account and called "The blitz on Malta and Tunis". And for the LW it is as bad, or even worse, than the BoB, for the same reasons. |
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archibald
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Post by archibald on Aug 6, 2020 8:12:23 GMT
Some others elements The franco - British do not sat on their hands. - As noted, the North African campaign is over by late 1940 (instead of 1943 !) - Corsica did not fall imediately like the rest of the Métropole (August 1940), because the Wermarcht and KM sucks at amphibious landings (Sea Lion, hint) Instead what happened is that OTL Crete campaign, May 1941 essentially happens in Corsica, February - Mars 1941 (we recycled the name "Operation Merkur !) The German paratroopers, LW, Italian navy finally take the island but just like Crete OTL, at an horrible cost. - the French Navy give a hand to the British for the Taranto raid, which happens late August, Béarn included. - Hitler still has to fight the BoB, except the French campaign drags on until August 10, meaning OTL BoB attrition battles of July doesn't happen.
The French have plenty enough troops in North Africa to crush Spanish Marocco long before Hitler or Mussolini can help Franco. Franco is all too aware of this and won't take the risk.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Aug 6, 2020 14:11:39 GMT
The French ordered a lot of American planes who in OTL ended up in RAF service, with the Free French still in the fight i see them going to Free French in Africa instead of the United Kingdom. Also we most likely will not see a attack on Mers-el-Kébir, thus the Free French Navy will together with the Royal Navy dominate the Mediterranean. Very likely in the short term at least as France has gold reserves and also resources in the empire to make further purchases. Definitely no Mers-el-Kébir, at least not by Britain. The Italians might try something, most likely with the mini-subs but that would probably be later in the war anyway.
So who would lead a Free French in Africa, i do not think it has to be De Gaulle, could it be admiral Darlan ore is it a normal french government who sets up shop in Algiers. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 6, 2020 17:03:39 GMT
Stevep, You put your finger right on a hotly debated point. I can tell you the "spanish hypothesis" was thoroughly reviewed and debated.
To such a point, the authors could write an encyclopedia on "Francisco Franco inner psychology". LFCLG (La France Continue La Guerre) team decided Franco would not enter the fight.
Case 1 Hitler tries to convince Franco to join the Axis
Spain laid in ruins, and most importantly Franco was an extremely cautious and pragmatic guy - a polar opposite of Mussolini. This allowed him to last 30 more years (1975 vs 1945) and die peacefully in an hospital, of old age.
Case 2
If Hitler decides to invade Spain, good luck to him (Napoleon 2.0: failed in Spain before failing in Russia). The country is as large as France (1000 km north to south, 500 000 squarred km) except with more mountains everywhere and much hoter with few water. Also the French army already wore out the Wermacht from Alsace to the Pyrénées, from May 10 to August 10 1940 (yes, the fight for the Métropole ends on August 8 near the Mediterranean, France-Spanish border - Banyuls). Case 3 is Franco pulling a "legion kondor 2.0" and allowing the LW into the Baleares or Gibraltar to Blitz North Africa, Battle of Britain style. This was taken into account and called "The blitz on Malta and Tunis". And for the LW it is as bad, or even worse, than the BoB, for the same reasons.
Agreed I can't see Franco being willing to fight alongside Hitler. His country is in no state to do so and Germany can't supply the materials, especially food and oil which would be cut off by the allied blockade once he joined the Axis. Also while he might gain Gibraltar he's very likely to lose the Canary's and in a France fights on scenario quite probably Spanish Morocco. For a similar reason I can't see him going for the 3rd option as the allies would almost certainly take than as a dow by Spain.
If Hitler invaded Spain he would 'win' in the short term but probably at huge costs. Also a country already ravaged by war and with many hostile to the current regime its going to be murder - literally - maintaining forces in the country let alone projecting power successfully beyond it. They can do it but would take quite a while, giving a chance for the British to regroup and aid the resistance and probably means no chance of an attack against Russia in 41. Furthermore attacking another fascists state is going to be politically damaging to the Germans as it will make every other one mistrustful of them as its possibly they might be next on the list. the Germans might eventually get into NW Africa - although that's by no means certain but its going to cost them a hell of a lot and be a difficult operation.
In terms of a blitz on Malta and Tunis then wouldn't that come more from forces operating from Italian bases. As you say the Germans have a bigger problem with the range so their bombers would have to go in largely without escorts to hit Tunis. Once the allies get a basic fighter defence including a radar system there its going to be very costly for the Luftwaffe. In such a scenario Malta is a lot less important as the major pressure on the Italian supply lines to Libya would be from French bases and the latter can also make resupplying Malta a lot easier.
Steve
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 6, 2020 17:11:14 GMT
Some others elements The franco - British do not sat on their hands. - As noted, the North African campaign is over by late 1940 (instead of 1943 !) - Corsica did not fall imediately like the rest of the Métropole (August 1940), because the Wermarcht and KM sucks at amphibious landings (Sea Lion, hint) Instead what happened is that OTL Crete campaign, May 1941 essentially happens in Corsica, February - Mars 1941 (we recycled the name "Operation Merkur !) The German paratroopers, LW, Italian navy finally take the island but just like Crete OTL, at an horrible cost. - the French Navy give a hand to the British for the Taranto raid, which happens late August, Béarn included. - Hitler still has to fight the BoB, except the French campaign drags on until August 10, meaning OTL BoB attrition battles of July doesn't happen.
The French have plenty enough troops in North Africa to crush Spanish Marocco long before Hitler or Mussolini can help Franco. Franco is all too aware of this and won't take the risk.
Would agree that Corsica will fall as its position is indefensible but it could be a costly victory for the Axis in taking it. They might be better off using it as bait in the hope that French pressure would see attempts to reinforce and resupply it. Which could be costly for the allies.
What happens in your FFO scenario? Does Mussolini still attack Greece, presuming dragging the Germans in at some stage to rescue the Italians? Since the paras are tied up in Corsica does that mean Crete survives?
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archibald
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Post by archibald on Aug 6, 2020 17:15:35 GMT
Very likely in the short term at least as France has gold reserves and also resources in the empire to make further purchases. Definitely no Mers-el-Kébir, at least not by Britain. The Italians might try something, most likely with the mini-subs but that would probably be later in the war anyway.
So who would lead a Free French in Africa, i do not think it has to be De Gaulle, could it be admiral Darlan ore is it a normal french government who sets up shop in Algiers.
In FFO we (literally !) kicked Reynaud in his... rear end and got him carrying on the fight. What follows is a "scorched Earth policy".
- anything of value that can be moved to North Africa, is moved
This includes a) French armies b) French banks, gold, newspapers, and the kitchen sink c) French government and politics
d) French military and support industries
Basically anything that makes the basic strength of a nation.
Nothing of value is left in Pierre Laval hands. Laval, because Pétain blows an aneurysm in anger in June 1940 and dies in September.
- anything that can't be moved, is destroyed
- the lower end of the French Armies is ordered to delay the germans all the way from the Loire to the Pyrénées, starting from June 15. - the high end of the French armies is moved to North Africa and immediately send crushing the italians. Long before Rommel and Afrika Korps can rescue them (February 1941). The italians are toast and the fight is over by october 1940.
Without North Africa campaign lasting into May 1943, the main fight concentrate in the Mediterranean and Balkans.
And its becomes a huge butchering of warships: italian fleet vs French and RN. Also men, tanks, combat aircraft. A huge carnage.
The tipping point, the big clash between (OTL) Pétain / Vichysts and De Gaulle / Free French happens in the Chateau de Cangé near Tours on the Loire river on June 13, 1940 in the evening.
OTL Free French faction that wanted to carry on the fight from Algeria, win the day and starts moving to Algiers.
The losers will never go to Vichy for a simple reason. Since the fight doesn't stop on the Loire by June 22 (like OTL) but rather at the spanish frontier on August 8 - then there is no free zone / occupied zone.
The Germans takes the entire country and so there is no point for a bogus French state with a capital in Vichy. Laval faction orphan of Pétain call itself the NEF - Nouvel Etat Français. It settles in Paris and is very similar to Quisling Norway: a rump state.
Unlike OTL Vichy it has zero military gear left. What was not moved to Algiers, was destroyed delaying the Germans until August.
Unlike OTL Vichy France the NEF fighting strength is close from zero. In passing, the French fleet gets a far more interesting fate than OTL sheer misery. Losses are heavy but at least the warships die gloriously...
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